(Can’t think of a Title open to suggestions)

[cormacobear]

(Can’t think of a Title open to suggestions)
If the American Economy is a Sinking Ship;Lets Hope We Get Stranded Somewhere Tropical( maybe

With the U.S. national debt now over 7 trillion dollars i and rising at a rate near 400 billion per Anna;ii where in the last 25 years the U.S. government has only failed to overspend 3 times,iii the Superpowers largest trading partners had best take stock of their involvement. It has been plead by some that the U.S. economy being the largest in the world has the capacity to pay its debts however any significant loss in U.S. markets represents a substantial loss to the U.S. trading partners. The I.M.F. estimates the U.S. fiscal imbalance from current data onward to be 47 trillion dollars, or %500 of the current G.D.P. The likelihood that the current administration will implement a 60% tax increase is as unlikely as the next generation being able to pay off the U.S. debt.iv U.S. industry relies more heavily on global oil supply than any other therefore with ‘peak oil’ fast approaching, and with no plans for alternative energy supplies on the table, The likelihood that the U.S. economy can continue at even the current pace is unlikely. Once virtually everyone in a country owns a home, a car, a television, computer and home appliances, even if owned via staggering personal debts it can be said that the countries own markets are drying up. Despite attempts to reach a global standard level of production with treaties like NAFTA the U.S. continues to be insular and protectionist in its trade policies. With no obvious sign the wealthy of the United states have any intention of legislating a distribution of wealth more conducive to preventing a massive wave of bankruptcies crippling the market, or preventing the wealthy American from investing in countries with lower wages and a populations without cars and appliances, the nations with the most trade and investment in this sinking ship must begin to doubt whether they will ever see a return.

Countries like Canada and Japan who have long been in bed with the giant should begin looking for new markets in order to stem the exsanguinations that will invariably occur with any significant fall in U.S. markets. For a market to be optimal for investment it must have a large number of people with few amenities, and this is important… a rising standard of living. There are obvious choices like China and India whose new millennium growth has stunned even those economists that predicted the boom. But the world is watching them and competition is already heavy. There have been a number of events in the last few years that should help us to consider another region, central and South America. Once well within the oppressive sphere of U.S. imperialism, with concentrations of wealth that can only be rivalled by the U.S. itself, and run largely by corrupt dictators and cruel generals these regions have recently taken the opportunity to begin expressing their mature civil will. In Brazil president President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva has made great strides in ending what once ranked as one of the worlds most corrupt governments, and begun battling the poverty that kept the country firmly in a state of revolutionary instability, and a population with no possibility of buying power. Between 2001-03 Brazil's economy grew 2.2% per year do to poor international market growth. “That Brazil absorbed these shocks without financial collapse is a tribute to the resiliency of the Brazilian economy and the economic program […] of President Da Silva.” In 2003 and 2004, Brazil ran record trade surpluses and recorded its first current account surpluses since 1992. The countries GDP - real growth rate is 5.1% (2004 est.).v All this, having been achieved, amid the governments implementing grassroots democratic reforms, the introducing of sweeping land reforms, and battling slavery and urban class warfare. In Venezuela President Hugo Chavez Frias, a self declared socialist, promises to be the major player in any beneficial regional economic reforms. Chavez’s reforms were received with sufficient support to win a special presidential recall vote on August 15th 2004 resulting in a further victory for Chavez. The countries growth rate currently stands at 16.8% (2004 est.). Chavez’s vocal opposition to U.S. regional interference, and his own national economic policies, have with the possibility of a regional trading block being discussed predominantly by Da Silva and Chavez, has been sufficient to boost Cuba’s economic outlook. Cuba with what likely amounts to the largest underemployed educated workforce has the potential with supportive trading partners to be a real economic ‘tiger’ if only given the opportunity. Argentina’s economic outlook has gone from virtually absolute insolvency at the turn of the millennium to a current growth rate of 8.3% (2004 est.). The decision to distance their economy from the U.S. has played a significant factor in this turnaround, with policies such as abandoning the peso's peg to the dollar in January 2002. By mid-year, 2003, the economy had stabilized, albeit at a lower level. GDP expanded by more than 8% in 2003 and again in 2004, with unemployment falling and inflation remaining in single digits.vi Peru remains perhaps one of the regions most unstable countries. It’s current government has maintained close ties to the U.S. despite the populations wish to distance themselves from the U.S., this sympathetic view to U.S. interests is likely the cause of the governments, terrible record in regard to torture, rape, and political arrests. Despite this, “The Peruvian economy grew by an average 4 percent per year during the period 2002-2004, with a stable exchange rate and low inflation. Risk premiums on Peruvian bonds on secondary markets reached historically low levels in late 2004,”vii although privatization of certain industries including the Power utilities will likely slow growth and retard the speed of raising the average standard of living. Chile is remarkably stable, and has a current growth rate of 5.8%. Bolivia’s people have in the last weeks demanded the government obey the wishes of it’s citizens, have forced out a reactionary president, and are on the verge of the transition to a Chavez style government. The same appears to be true of Ecuador.


With a wider distribution of wealth more people will begin buying the big-ticket items that drive western economies. The people of this region appear united in that they will have nationalized industries, and will no longer be manipulated individually in a free market system. This need not be a bad thing. We need merely accept this and negotiate like them on a national level for mutually beneficial trade, and if the attempt to reach the labour standards of the highest participating member are included in any agreement those of us in Europe, Canada, and Japan who are beginning to tire of Washington’s rhetoric on free trade when their policy is protectionist can ensure our jobs, all the while raising the standard of living and thus buying power of this exciting new region. Even while writing this article the Bank of Canada governor David Dodge was advising Canadian policy makers to be wary of what he calls the Bush administrations “borrow-and-spendthrift ways,” he went on to describe this situation as a “threat to world economic stability.”vii With prudent treaties Europe, Japan, Canada, and these Latin American countries, whose sovereignty stands to benefit most from less U.S. involvement are in a position to control human advancement in this melenium. If economic ties to the U.S. can be cut then this potential trading block can preasure the U.S. to withdraw their military within their own borders and to submit to international law. With an ultimate goal of creating a socialist future where the majority control the governments and they control the economy rather than governments controlling their citizens.

i http://www.federalbudget.com/

ii http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index...ence=0#table12

iii http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index...ence=0#table11

iv http://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/NFT/Op/227/index.htm

v http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factb...tesanddefs.html

vi Ibid.

vii http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factb...tesanddefs.html

viii http://sympatico.msn.cbc.ca/story/business...ning050530.html

[T_SP]

Title:

Super Powers Debt Crisis?

[coda]

Really good, Coco. I like the title you have, long but apropo.

[RedAnarchist]

Intelligent, articulate and well-laid out. And the title you gave it in the post is fine in my opinion.