The inevitable collapse

[encephalon]

I wasn't sure where else to place this, but after some thought decided this was indeed the best place, as it could potentially have to do with future activity and planning.

http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,...tw=wn_tophead_3

You may have read this article by today in your local newspaper (if you bother reading it.. I don't blame you if you don't). It's about a few prominent industry analysts coming out and saying that within the next ten years, we'll have reached the peak of global oil discovery and production, and then will face a sharp decline. This will, in turn, devastate the world economy, as nearly everything, big and small, depends on oil.. terrible inflation, unemployment, etc.

Their predictions are based on a model that was proven accurate decades ago, although people doubted the guy who came up with it and most didn't take it seriously at all. He theorized that US oil production would peak at 1970 and then sharply decline, while everyone else thought that market forces would create better extraction methods, lower prices, etc.. as you could probably guess, the theory turned out to be correct. Those saying this now have simply extended this theory to a global scale. You'll have to read the article to hear why they say alternative energy sources won't make up for it now, nor market forces. It's an interesting read, anyhow.

Now, here's why this is in the practice section: this is what I would consider the end-all-be-all of market crashes.. think about what depends on oil.. everything. Even plastic has petroleum in it, not to mention the electricity used in the manufacture process. Not only that, the crash would be nearly irrecoverable, at least at the same pace the market went beforehand.. there is no infrastructure to build upon when the oil begins to disappear. No driving (except for the extremely wealthy). No plastic production. Limited electicity (although many plants still use coal). Everything will come to a screeching and abrupt halt.

I think the far-right knows this. Obviously. That's why they've consolidated their power in the middle east, likely the last place to run dry. Still, it will run dry, at least for capitalism: if there's no profit in it, it's useless.

The point is: shouldn't we be prepared for such circumstances to arise, even if we don't think it will happen in our lifetimes? Although, frankly, I'm increasingly convinced that it will at least start in my life-time, though likely not resolve. It is at the very least possible that the final crash could come much, much sooner than we thought.

Any thoughts on this?

EDIT: just noticed this is the politics section, not practice. ah well.

[fernando]

Sounds like the right time for a revolution, the day their system crashes we will rise from the ashes and take over

[bolshevik butcher]

A collapse is well over due, they hapen about once every 10 years.

[Tupac-Amaru]

Yea that's true....they always say something like "in 2 decades there will no longer be any oil", but there always is. During the 80s they said that by the year 2000, there was gonna be a collapse....and look, at us now...2005, and everything seems fine.

[fernando]

I hoped more for a collapse as in "the Western world right now is in turmoil, weak, ready to be attacked"

[slim]

Revolution? Perhaps that is a bit extreme.

If the economy collapses then we will simply take over or even better. Our existing orders should be established to cope with modern government.

Personally, i fear recession. A loss of oil and capitalism is like cutting off your arm to let your enemy fall of a cliff, it is a move out of spite. I dont want to lose the oil so we should not wish for its end.

[bolshevik butcher]

Actually they have developed a fully functioning hydrogen powered car, the world could function without oil. Oil multinationals have the ability to 'buy-out' any opostition to them at the moment though.

[codyvo]

Well, the economic income is going to be surpassed by the budget between 2013 and 2017 so economic collapse really is coming soon.

[slim]

Scary stuff. I hope theres some infrastructure for the next order by then.

[NovelGentry]

Personally, i fear recession.

I fear something a whole lot worse than recession.

[kurt]

The system that breeds it perhaps? :P

[NovelGentry]

The strength of what we have to offer will, unfortunately, not be enough to strip power from the current rulers at the immediate point of collapse, you will only see a shift in it's structure. Our actions must leverage the strength of the proletariat before this point, to wage the struggle during the process of it's collapse, before the inevitable capitalist solution to that collapse is manifested.

If there is any truth to the collapse of capitalism through energy crisis, that is, if capitalism itself is not to eat its own heart, we will be most apt to see it's most grotesque resolution before we see it's final resolution: fascism.

[BOZG]

I think Marxists have to be very careful how we see economic recessions and the 'inevitable collapse' of capitalism. In reality, such a collapse is never going to occure, where capitalism destroys itself completely. Period collapses and recessions have occured throughout history and capitalism has always shown a level of adaption to pull itself back out of those declines and is well capable of doing so again. An 'inevitable collapse' of capitalism will not occur on an entirely economic basis, but will occur when the proleteriat is forced to realise that socialism is the only viable alternative to the exploitation and anarchaic boom/bust cycles of capitalism.

Secondly, we have a habit of rubbing our hands in glee everytime an economic downturn appears on the horizon. The thoughts of the coming glorious revolution start whirling around our heads without us recognising that recession doesn't necessarily equal revolution, which I think is what Gent was getting at. While struggle and class consciousness can take a massive upturn in periods of recession and economic busts, so can reaction. We are too quick to forget the lessons of Nazi Germany on that front. Even on a less extreme basis, recession means massive job losses, possibilities of massive inflation, starvation and poverty. And I'm certainly not going to cheer this on or any collapse of capitalism that results in only this.

What I'm trying to say is that while the possibilities of socialism, of class struggle and of the destruction of capitalism are a very possible outcome of recession, they are not definates and that a collapse of world capitalism could also have many detrimental effects on the working class and poor.

[codyvo]

I agree, none of these are definates at all, look at what happened after the Great Depression, loads of nationalism and anti-communism spawned, whether they had any relation to the depression I don't know but it shows that no definates will come from this. I do however, think that we should use any recession or depression to try and strengthen our movements by gaining the fll support of the proletariat.

[encephalon]

I'm not saying it's necessarily a good thing; I'm saying we should be prepared for it. Furthermore, there's a very big difference in a collapse of this nature vs. all market collapses before now: this one isn't dictated by market forces, but a limited resource that the whole of our industrial civilization depends upon.

No alternative sources of energy exist with enough infrastucture to adequately halt the collapse. Someone mentioned hydrogen-based feul cell systems, but answer this: where are you going to refill on hydrogen? Your local gas station??? How long do you think it will take to make enough hydrogen stations to support such a system? What does it take to build those? Massive amounts of oil-dependent manufacture.

I'm almost positive that fascism would arise under these circumstances, an even more powerful fascist system than history has ever bore if it has a monopoly on oil. That's why we should recognize the possibility of such an event on the horizon as well as be prepared for the aftermath as much as possible.

[Zingu]

Which brings an other point up,

If that is so, it is obvious that the Western capitalists will be setting their eyes on Venezeula very, very, very soon.

Or will they? They could simply buy the oil from Venezeula's trading partners.

But if Venezeula is invaded or its government destroyed by a American backed coup, there is no denying that the invasion of the Middle East was for the oil.

So, how will this affect other oil bearing countries, especially Russia?

[redstar2000]

*Yawns*

Another "end of the world" scenario.

Until Canada comes to the rescue!

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file...NG46CMUPL60.DTL