Cuba after Castro

[Roses in the Hospital]

It's genrally believed that his younger brother Raul will take over when Castro dies, but I still think US intervention will be inevitable, however I imagine it will be more political than military based as the US really couldn't get away with a full scale invasion because of the diplomatic pressure which they would be put under as a result. I would expect Castro already has watertight plans for the change over of power in place, perhaps not even announcing his death untill a new administration is in place, as I doubt he'd be prepared to loose in death what he's fought for in life...

[redfront]

Isn't Raul a bit old too?

[Salvador Allende]

Actually, I believe the successor is named in Fidel's will and will not be announced during his life as it could endanger them. I also believe that knowing Fidel, it will not be Raul, but some young protege who is ready to lead Cuba's new generation.

[mEds]

Raul Castro is much more left than Castro. But Raul is not as left as Che was back in the day.

[Lefty]

Does anyone know how Raul feels about the human-rights violations that have occurred during his brother's rule?

[cebert]

I think Cuba will function the same under Raul as under Castro. What happens after Raul is very hard to predict. I dont forsee any open US military action against Cuba. Right now and for the distant future the US will have its hands full in other parts of the world.

Does anyone know how Raul feels about the human-rights violations that have occurred during his brother's rule?

I'm sure he totally condemns human-rights violations commited by the US during his brothers rule.

[Maynard]

The speculation is that it will either be Raul Castro, Ricardo Alarcón, president of the National Assembly, Carlos Lage, Vice President of the National Assembly or Felipe Pérez Roque, the foriegn minister. I think it'll be Raul, as leader of the armed forces and symbol of "continuality", he would most likely be the choice of the national assembly. After his death though, I can imagine the next leader will start too introduce even more market reforms, like China did after Mao's death or the USSR after Stalin's.

[Salvador Allende]

Maynard, I pray to God (and I don't even believe in him, but I am still praying) that you are wrong and that Cuba won't sell out like Deng's China or Khruschov's USSR.

[Maynard]

I think we all do, you can see a trend though , with countries like Vietnam, Laos introduicing market reforms and the elected ruling party of Moldova, the Communist Party supporting the "war on terror", the Communist parties in India supporting market reform we also. It could well be wrong though, especially if there is socialist revolutions in other Latin American countries. I don't think there is a chance of Raul doing it, I was meaning after his death is when it could happen, it is who is elected after which everyone that should be wary off.

[Salvador Allende]

Yes, Khruschovist revisionism has reached most Communist partys. But, the few that live on will eventually win, I believe it.

[BuyOurEverything]

Raul is far more Marxist than Fidel. If he takes over, there certainly won't be any market reforms.

[Maynard]

I agree with that, after his death, since he isn't that much younger than Fidel is when they could come in. However, does anyone know of Raul's stance too different topics, is there any writings he has done ?

[Comrade Zeke]

Ok there are two possobilities for what will happen in Cuba,
When Fidel Dies the U.S will Launch a huge invasion of the Island to "Bring back Democracy" the Communist party and hopfully the people will launch a guerrila war against the invaders

And the other is that a member of the Communist Party will becone the New Dictator. And everything will remain normal
Zeke

[refuse_resist]

Of course when Fidel dies the U.S. will get involved, whether it be through an invasion or even more embargos. If the U.S. were to invade, the Cuban people would wage an all out guerilla war against them and more than likely prevail. Hopefully they already learned from the Bay of Pigs.

[RED CHARO]

I think it would bee close to impossibule for Cuba to introduce market reforms., Now that the U.S has placed a ban on coperations tradeing with U.S and Cuba!!!