The shift in US economic policy, exemplified in the Trump agenda of economic nationalism, is also compounding the problems faced by the ECB in seeking to contain the mounting crisis of the Italian banking system. Italian banks have on their books some €360 billion of bad debt, of which €200 billion is classified as non-performing loans.
The scale of the financial breakdown is indicated by the share values of two major banks in the Veneto region, one of the more prosperous areas of the country, reported by the Financial Times this week. In the case of one of the banks, the share price had fallen from €40.75 in 2014 to 10 cents today. In the other, the share price crashed from €62.50 to 10 cents.
The country’s banking system could suffer further destabilisation if Prime Minister Matteo Renzi loses a constitutional referendum on December 4. The “no” vote is being championed by right-wing populist parties that will have been strengthened by the Trump victory in the US. There are fears that if the “no” vote prevails and Renzi resigns, as he has threatened, this will lead to a political crisis, sparking financial instability.
But the Italian crisis is only one manifestation of a very large financial ice-berg. As the ECB report noted, “[T]he main structural challenges for bank profitability continue to be related to the large stock of non-performing loans in a number of countries,” coupled with “overcapacity in some euro area banking sectors.”
This is a legacy of the decision taken by the European financial elites following the 2008 financial crisis not to carry out a purge of the banking system and instead seek to contain the problems through central bank intervention, in the hope that higher economic growth would enable the financial system to gradually recover. That growth has not occurred and the financial malaise has been compounded.