turkey shoots down russian fighter jet...

[Sasha]

Oh Erdoghan, what have gone and done now?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983

[Бай Ганьо]

US-Backed Rebels Release Video Of Dead Russian Pilot http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...-russian-pilot

Things are escalating: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...ng-downed-jets

[Aslan]

Erdogan has done something really stupid today. To destroy a plane flown by a potential ally! And don't listen to their bullshit about ''turkish airspace'', Russia didn't violate any rules. They were flying all their planes in Syrian airspace!

Just shows you the bullshit that is the Turkish government. Have these men court-martialed!

[Sasha]

Erdogan has done something really stupid today. To destroy a plane flown by a potential ally! And don't listen to their bullshit about ''turkish airspace'', Russia didn't violate any rules. They were flying all their planes in Syrian airspace!

Just shows you the bullshit that is the Turkish government. Have these men court-martialed!

What potential ally? Turkmen millitias who are provided with turkish air support are being targetted by Syrian troops and russian bombers, it was a matter of time the russians would cross turkisk airspace again (you cant opperate so close to the border with fighter jets without crossing it eventually) and turkey would sieze their chance.
Russia cant afford a war with turkey (as a nato member) and its instrumental to turkeys intestd in syria to prevent russian and syrian jets operating in the border regions and if possible to prevent them opperating at all.

[Aslan]

What potential ally? Turkmen millitias who are provided with turkish air support are being targetted by Syrian troops and russian bombers, it was a matter of time the russians would cross turkisk airspace again (you cant opperate so close to the border with fighter jets without crossing it eventually) and turkey would sieze their chance.
Russia cant afford a war with turkey (as a nato member) and its instrumental to turkeys intestd in syria to prevent russian and syrian jets operating in the border regions and if possible to prevent them opperating at all.

When I mean ''ally'' I mean a temporary war partner (Enemy of my enemy). Geo-politically it was possible until this point if Turkey was smart and built a coalition with both Russia, Syrian Rebels, and Syrian government in order to fight rebels. I was sure the populist Erdogan could sympathize with Putin's own populist strategies and they could've developed a bond, even if Turkey is in NATO. But I was sourly mistaken, yes I do think I overstepped my words when I said ally. But think Russia would've been liked to develop a bond with turkey due to its strategic position in black sea and oil transport. Now with Turkey antagonizing Russia as well, it can be safe to say that Russia is surrounded in all sides by a NATO military presence, which is something Russia doesn't want at all.

In an interview the Russian representative the official stated that war with Turkey was ''Absurd'' which is true given the circumstances. What Russia can do now is to have more of an incentive to bomb Syrian rebel positions in order to allow Government forces to win out. While building a bond with Iran which is already occurring due to the Yemeni civil war.

[Sasha]

But turkeys prime objectives has been the fall of Assad in favour of a Sunni regime and the prevention of a PKK dominated kurdish de facto state on their border, Daesh and al nusra are their best bets to bring about those objectives..
So Russia and the regime are at diametrically positions

[Бай Ганьо]

I wouldn't be surprised if Gazprom were to announce the cancellation of gas deals with Turkey soon.

[Aslan]

But turkeys prime objectives has been the fall of Assad in favour of a Sunni regime and the prevention of a PKK dominated kurdish de facto state on their border, Daesh and al nusra are their best bets to bring about those objectives..
So Russia and the regime are at diametrically positions

Turkey most certainly does not want ISIL militants in their borders or even near them. Turkey is a secular (debatable but true to an extent). The late thing Turkey wants is a destabilized neighbor taken over by a insane terrorist group.

edit: After thinking a little bit I think Sasha is saying the truth. Turkey is intentionally trying to put an illegitimate government in Syria in order to serve it's own geopolitical interests. This is really turning into a proxy war

[Sasha]

I wouldn't be surprised if Gazprom were to announce the cancellation of gas deals with Turkey soon.

Dont know how dependent the turks are on russian gas but last thing russia would want is start an trade war with turkey, do not forget that turkey controlls the bosporus strait which would leave russia essentially landlocked for most of the year (only the black sea harbours and the kalinka enclave and the harbour on the other end of siberia near japan remain ice free). If russia wants to hurt turkey their best bet is is deciding the syrian war quickly in favour of the Assad regime. Whether they can force an desicive victory without boots on the ground is a big question though.

[Sasha]

Turkey most certainly does not want ISIL militants in their borders or even near them. Turkey is a secular (debatable but true to an extent). The late thing Turkey wants is a destabilized neighbor taken over by a insane terrorist group.

Thats just not true, turkish intelligence have been instrumental for the survival of daesh, the way they weaponised them against the HDP during the ellections speaks volums about their relationship.
What is happening now has also to been seen in the fact that russia from the coast/west is about to do what turkey prevented by shelling, the kurds from doing from the east, which is closing the turkish borders for sunni anti-assad forces, the town in question Jarblus is firmly in Daesh hands and is the caliphates life line...

[Aslan]

Dont know how dependent the turks are on russian gas but last thing russia would want is start an trade war with turkey, do not forget that turkey controlls the bosporus strait which would leave russia essentially landlocked for most of the year (only the black sea harbours and the kalinka enclave and the harbour on the other end of siberia near japan remain ice free). If russia wants to hurt turkey their best bet is is deciding the syrian war quickly in favour of the Assad regime. Whether they can force an desicive victory without boots on the ground is a big question though.

I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey sent ground troops to Syria.

[Armchair Partisan]

Turkey most certainly does not want ISIL militants in their borders or even near them. Turkey is a secular (debatable but true to an extent). The late thing Turkey wants is a destabilized neighbor taken over by a insane terrorist group.

Turkey is not as secular as you might think, and Erdogan is anything but. Turkey probably couldn't afford to openly support Da'esh, but letting them wipe out the Kurds would be an expedient move on their part. Later, they can whip out their own Islamists (oh, excuse me, the "moderate opposition") to control Syria by proxy once the dust settles (Al-Nusra front, anyone?) while continuing to tacitly support the existence of Da'esh.

[Sasha]

Article with lots of proof of the cooporation between Daesh and the turkish state; https://undercoverinfo.wordpress.com...-the-evidence/

[Бай Ганьо]

This article is also enlightening: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...P=share_btn_fb

[Aslan]

Mother of god..Its worse than I would've though.

But my question is, is Turkey still supplying terrorist cliches with weapons capable of fighting the Kurds? And who are these specific gulf sheikhs and Turkish military personnel who have helped these terrorists?

[Sasha]

lifted from a facebook post (no one i know);

"this is mostly acrobatics for Erdogan to try to save some face. The Syrian army troops and national defence have in the last few days captured all major mountain tops and hills in the Latakia mountains, including a very important border mountain overseeing the rebels supply lines from Turkey, meaning the battle for the coastal mountains (the most complex among all fronts) is more than 50% over. The eastern edge of the mountains oversees the Orontes valley all the way to Jisr-al-shigour (western edge of the Idelb province, captured by the Turkish sponsored Conquest army a few months ago) meaning all of that area will be open now to be retaken. On top, the border areas being fought over in the last few days are manned by groups of Turkmen villagers (they are actually called the Turkmen mountains) which are under full control of the Turkish intelligence as their most direct tool in the Syrian conflict. These groups were supposed to be a "red line" for Turkey but Russia seems intent on wiping them out.

This incident will only result in Russia's intensifying its presence and support to the Syrian regime. They are already equipping two new air bases, one near Homs and one near Aleppo (bringing the total to 3 including the Latakia base they have been operating from) and dispatching all kinds of gadgets and high tech military technology which neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia can match. For example the first batch of T-90 tanks (20 of them) have been spotted near the Aleppo airbase. These (unlike the T-72 and older model the regime uses) have infrared interference systems that are capable of blinding anti-tank guided missles like the TOW (most important rebel strategic weapon, recked so many regime tanks and decided battles).

We may see more planes downed, Saudi has purchased Sam-3 rockets for the rebels and other shorter range shoulder carried rockets (like Stinger and Strela, can hit helicopters), but this does not fundamentally change anything. Russia has the upper hand and the morale of the government troops is quite high now, and though the rebels (from all colorings) are fighting back viciously, their fate is sealed nonetheless as they are losing ground daily (they lost a vast area south of Aleppo, all the way to the Damascus-Aleppo motorway, bringing regime troops to the border of the Idelb from the east sdie). They have to sign off their surrender sooner or later, it just a question of how big it will be -or how much the regime troops can actually advance- which will shape the final settlement."

[Sibotic]

This also seems like it could be an issue for Russia, however, who are still apparently engaged in fights elsewhere. They probably did not want to get into a confrontation with Turkey here, who are still pretty much free to fight any such pressure off so far as we've been told. This probably means that it was, as it were, highly secure for Turkey to do so, more or less.

[human strike]

I don't think this is a big deal. Russian planes violate NATO airspace all the time, including repeatedly in Turkey recently. It was only a matter of time before something like this happened, but nobody wants it to blow up into anything. As long as Putin can save face for the media at home - and judging by the US response so far, he shouldn't have trouble doing that - things will calm down and the Russians will probably behave themselves a bit more, which could be good for Turkey if it acts as a small obstacle to Russia's operations in Syria. It's just another episode in the worsening relations between Turkey and Russia (they have a lot to bicker over, as it is). Maybe Russia will offer some kind of minor assistance to the Kurds next, just to piss off Erdogan.

[Rugged Collectivist]

If Turkey's main priority is preventing the creation of an independent Kurdish state, wouldn't it be better to back Assad and the Russians than Daesh? I doubt Assad is comfortable with Kurdish independence, and if I understand the situation correctly, the governments of Europe (or at least France) are less hostile to his regime in light of the Paris attacks. Why would Erdogan risk alienating his NATO allies, not to mention Assad, the Russians, and the Iranians by aligning himself with such a universally hated faction (Daesh)?

[Sasha]

If Turkey's main priority is preventing the creation of an independent Kurdish state, wouldn't it be better to back Assad and the Russians than Daesh? I doubt Assad is comfortable with Kurdish independence, and if I understand the situation correctly, the governments of Europe (or at least France) are less hostile to his regime in light of the Paris attacks. Why would Erdogan risk alienating his NATO allies, not to mention Assad, the Russians, and the Iranians by aligning himself with such a universally hated faction (Daesh)?

Assad is Alawi, a shiite minority and there for in Iranian camp, Erdoghan is sunni and therefor close to the jihadi opposition, remember that erdoghan wants a new caliphate too, just a more practical capitalist one in the form of a new Ottaman empire, this is why he is hated by the secular opposition not because of his religion but because he is islamist first, not turkish nationalist.

And in regards too the relationship between Assad and the kurds, until the 90s assad was a welcome host to the pkk, obviously kurds where discriminated against but also left more alone than in turkey, iraq and iran. Assad trusts he can come to an federational agreement with the kurds.