Sweden: elections coming up

[Sentinel]

So, as the title indicates, national, provincial and municipal elections will be held in Sweden soon - September 14. It would be interesting if we could discuss them here from a radical left wing pov. We may not believe that bourgeois elections are the way to radical social change, but they sure affect our prospects and our lives, social atmosphere etc. Also, in these upcoming elections, a with contemporary standars radical demand to ban private profits in the welfare sector -- which was initiated by the far left and other grassroots activists -- will also be contested which makes them a bit more interesting than usual.

With less than a month remaining, the latest surveys indicate that the results of the recent EU elections seem to be more reflective of the general mood than many who are hoping for regime change had dared to hope. This is the latest one from SIFO, with the current opinion poll results (%) followed by the 2010 election results in brackets:

Social Democratic Workers' Party 30,7 (30,7)
Left Party (ex-communists) 6,6 (5,6)
Green Party 11,4 (7,3)
Moderate Party ('liberal conservatives') 23,9 (30,1)
Centre Party (former peasants party, now neoliberals) 4,6 - 6,6
Peoples Party (liberals) 6,1 (7,1)
Christian Democrats 4,3 (5,6)
Sweden Democrats (far-right racists) 9 (5,7)
Feminist Initiative 2,6 (-)
Others 0,8 (1,4)


If this was the final result, the bourgeois 'Alliance' coalition of the Moderate, Liberal, Centre and Christian Democrat parties which has held power since 2006 would land at a mere 38,9 %. The so called 'red-green' opposition parties would receive 48,7%, thus being able to form a (minority) government.

The racist Sweden Democrats would retain their 'scalemaster' position, in the absence of a majority for either 'bloc', while increasing their mandate from 5,7% to 9%. This increase has been constant in virtually all polls between the elections and can thus unfortunately be seen as fairly certain.

The Feminist Initiative party, which scored a seat in the EU elections, but are yet without parliamentary representation, would not pass the 4% treshold required to enter parliament if these were the actual results. While the party refuses to place themselves on a left-right axis, they are led by Gudrun Schyman who is the former Left Party chair, are generally drawing support from the left and are supported by quite a few respectable left activists.

Many on the left are worried that the running of FI might pointlessly reduce the votes of the other left parties, the Left Party in particular, in a scenario where they almost but not quite reach the 4% treshold. It is however quite clear that they have, through their successes in the EU elections, made the other parties (well some of them) suddenly put feminism 'on the agenda' as they are afraid of losing votes.

What happens after the elections, if the bourgeois coalition falls, is uncertain. Personally I suspect that we might see an end to 'bloc politics' in Sweden; the Social Democrats will be hesitant to form a government with the Left Party which has picked up the grassroots initiative to ban private profits in the welfare sector (hospitals, schools, elderly care etc).

These have been extensively privatised during the 8 years of bourgeois rule, to the degree that for example only Chile under Pinochet allowed similar profits for venture capitalists in tax funded schools. After extensive scandals of mistreatment of patients, catastrophically sinking school results etc 8 out of 10 swedes now support banning private profits in these areas.

This ban has been the main elections promise of the Left party, which also saw an increase in support likely due to it -- until it became realistic that the FI may get into parliament as well, which then split the vote. It seems unlikely the Left party will back down on the demand, which was rejected by the Social Democratic party congress where the right wing defeated the left wing on the issue, and is deemed 'undoable' by the Socdem chairman Stefan Löfven, a rightwing union bureaucrat.

Therefore, and as it generally suits his purposes, I suspect that Löfven will attempt to form a 'centre' government with the Greens and the smaller bourgeois parties instead. The question is though, will they accept? And would Löfven do it even if it meant forming a minority government (if the 'red green bloc' would reach 50+%)?

So, let's discuss the elections, Swedish politics and related topics in this thread; I will post updates and try to answer any questions.

[blake 3:17]

What are the central issues in this election? Or how are they being framed by the parties and in the media?

On foreign policy -- Is Sweden even part of NATO?

Edited to add: Do minority governments in Sweden rule from vote to vote? Here there are less parties in a coalition (2 usually at most) and certain parliamentary vote votes are considered deal makers or deal breakers -- the budget usually being the big one.

[Creative Destruction]

What is the cause of the rise of far-right racist politics in the Nordic countries? Is it almost all due to a reaction against immigration?

I also read about the abject failure of the privatization of the Swedish school system, and I'm glad the voters are looking to correct this. There were some articles on Slate or Salon or one of those outlets that argued for Americans to look at how just fucked up it was. Liberals here are pushing for privatization or semi-privatization. It's fucking ridiculous.

[Sentinel]

What are the central issues in this election? Or how are they being framed by the parties and in the media?

The Social Democrats who are the main opposition and expected to take over, are basically promising some minor reforms (such as slightly raising employers taxes, the restaurant owners tax etc), as well as reforming the inhumane unemployment system somewhat -- while failing to take a decisive stand in the welfare profits issue, or otherwise promise to decisively roll back the neoliberal changes that have been made.

They are also not going to revoke the substantial tax reductions for workers with which the bourgeois Coalition has bought the support of the masses so far (financed by cutting down on welfare for the poorest, the unemployed, the sick etc). They are basically battling over the undecided 'middle voters' who are swaying between them and the right, and are afraid to scare them away.

Obviously their message is about returning Sweden to be a 'country for all', but it's all very abstract and boils down to small actual changes. Less counterreforms and privatisations maybe but certainly no nationalisations or other radical measures if they get to decide.

Cooperation with the Left party might force them to such this time, but yeah see above. It is unlikely the Left will become large enough to influence, and the Socdems are primarily looking for other cooperation partners anyway.

Then there is the issue of the racists increasing support, whom everyone so far has refused to cooperate with. I actually have some respect for Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Moderate party PM for firmly refusing to go there - as his collegues in the other nordic countries have done without hesitation.

But after the elections the leadership of the right parties may change, and then who knows.

On foreign policy -- Is Sweden even part of NATO?

No, but some debate over that has been raised now with the Ukraine crisis etc. During the cold war, Sweden was officially neutral although covertly in alliance with NATO. While it's yet not a member I think participation in wars etc indicates where we are going, slowly but certainly.

Do minority governments in Sweden rule from vote to vote? Here there are less parties in a coalition (2 usually at most) and certain parliamentary vote votes are considered deal makers or deal breakers -- the budget usually being the big one.

Basically yes, but usually they will try to reach long term agreements with individual opposition parties. For example after the current goverment lost it's majority in parliament in 2010, they faced a problem of getting support from others than the Sweden Democrats (which they didn't want) for their restrictive asylum policies including expelling political activists to Iran etc.

Luckily for them the Green party went in and cooperated, historically betraying the asylum struggle. Technically a minority government may be forced to resign if it has a parliamentary majority blocking it. There have been some cases where both the 'red-green' parties and the Sweden democrats voted no to individual government proposals without anythign happening, though.

What is the cause of the rise of far-right racist politics in the Nordic countries? Is it almost all due to a reaction against immigration?

It is the same as everywhere; the crisis of capitalism and the slaughter of the welfare state. And of course the political atmosphere in the whole of Europe affects Sweden as well.

It is no coincidence that these filth have grown enormously during the years of right wing rule, but on the other hand the rightward shift in Swedish politics was already initiated by the Social Democrats in the 90s.

I also read about the abject failure of the privatization of the Swedish school system, and I'm glad the voters are looking to correct this. There were some articles on Slate or Salon or one of those outlets that argued for Americans to look at how just fucked up it was. Liberals here are pushing for privatization or semi-privatization. It's fucking ridiculous.

Indeed it tends to come as a shock for people abroad, many of whom still believe Sweden is as it used to be (keynesian, social democrat, 'socialist'). Good to hear this perception is starting to change.

But I am happy that here the liberals are a tiny party on the right of the spectrum of parties, where they belong. Certainly there are still differences between here and there.

[blake 3:17]

Just for clarity's sake -- Sweden is part of the EU but hasn't adopted the Euro?

[Sentinel]

Just for clarity's sake -- Sweden is part of the EU but hasn't adopted the Euro?

Indeed, this is correct. Adopting the euro was turned down by landslide in a referendum, I think in 2003. First time I voted in an election btw.

***
Social democrat slogan: 'Stop selling out the welfare to underprice!'

How about just, stop?

[Hrafn]

Christ, this is going to be terrible. Last election was probably one of the lowest points of my life, mood-wise, the moment I completely lost faith in society. For the first time, I realized that Sweden wasn't as nice and tolerant as we were supposed to be. I've taken quite the journey since then...

While the rest of the "real" left deeply despises Feminist Initiative, I can honestly say I really hope they get in. Like the Sweden Democrats have normalized racism in Sweden, I hope FI will normalize feminism. That has already begun to take place. It's a possibility, given that feminists are more inclined to vote than your average citizen, I guess.

I also deeply hope that either the Center or thr Christian Democrats get kicked out of parliament, or both even, if nothing else for my personal amusement. As a rural kid, I've had to deal with them quite enough for one life time.

[Zukunftsmusik]

Jimmie Åkesson, the leader of the Sweden Democrats, was in Norway yesterday to appeal to the many swedish workers here. He was met with cirka 70 counter demonstrators (more than his supporters) who turned their back on him and yelled slogans until he burst out "I can't even hear myself think. Can you please be silent?", which of course only made the protestors yell louder.

[RedWorker]

What about the Socialist Justice Party?
Note: I know nothing about this party or Swedish elections, I just took a glance at the list of parties.

[Sentinel]

What about the Socialist Justice Party?
Note: I know nothing about this party or Swedish elections, I just took a glance at the list of parties.

Being a much smaller party with no realistic chance in the parliamentary elections, they are running for municipal council seats in some cities, most notably Haninge (off Stockholm), Luleå and Gothenburg. In the two former they have some incumbent councillors (2 and 3, respectively).

I wish them (and all other radical left parties) luck, despite whatever disagreements.

[JahLemon]

What about the Socialist Justice Party?
Note: I know nothing about this party or Swedish elections, I just took a glance at the list of parties.

They normally get a little over 1000 votes so I don't see them winning any seats this election.

[Hrafn]

No radical parties will see any "successes", in my opinion.

[Sentinel]

New, interesting opinion poll from DN/Ipsos, published yesterday with 10 days remaining to the elections:

Social Democratic Workers' Party: 29,7 %
Left Party: 7,5 %
Green Party: 11,0 %
Moderate Party: 21,7%
Centre Party: 4,4 %
Liberal Peoples Party: 6,3%
Christian Democrats: 4,5%
Sweden Democrats: 9,7%
Feminist Initiative: 4%
Others: 1,3 %

Support for the two major contenders, the Social Democrats and the Moderates, keeps shrinking while the Feminist Initiative party now has climbed up to the 4% parliament treshold. The left party is also increasing.

If this was the election result, the 'red-green-pink' parties would have a parliamentary majority of 52%. As the social democrats don't want to ban the welfare profiteers, and the Left party has put that demand in order to take part in a govermnent, a probable scenario would be a government by Socdems and Greens, supported by and heavily dependant of the Left and the Feminists in parliament.

Also, perhaps most importantly, this would mean that the Sweden Democrat racists would lose their influence as 'scalesmasters' between two 'blocs'. This would naturally be fantastic, even though we all have to be extremely worried about them still doubling their mandate.

But this is only one poll, others still put the feminists under the treshold, and the gap between the 'blocs' is also constantly decreasing. Only recently it was 17%, now some polls put it down to as little as 4,5% - discounting the feminists I presume, though.

They claim to be 'neither left or right', on the other hand most of their support does come from the left and they have also stated they would give parliamentary support to a red-green government.

This new rise in the polls might give F! the push they need to mobilise to make it in, but on the other hand they are not as prone to get support votes from other parties - something that constantly saves the smaller bourgeois parties from falling out of parliament.

[aty]

F! will give the fascists the swing vote because of their leaders ego.

I also think that the Moderate Party is over estimated a lot.

Prediction:
Social Democratic Workers' Party: 27,7 %
Left Party: 6,6 %
Green Party: 13,5 %
Moderate Party: 18,8%
Centre Party: 5,1 %
Liberal Peoples Party: 7,5%
Christian Democrats: 4,9%
Sweden Democrats: 12,8%
Feminist Initiative: 2,2%
Others: 0,9 %

[Zukunftsmusik]

F! will give the fascists the swing vote because of their leaders ego.

Could you be more specific here? (I assume the fascists referred to are Sverigedemokraterna?)

[Sentinel]

Could you be more specific here? (I assume the fascists referred to are Sverigedemokraterna?)

I think they mean that there is still a huge risk that F! fails to get over the 4% treshold for entering parliament - while still taking a crucial amount of votes that otherwise had gone to the 'redgreens', possibly giving them a parliamentary majority. This has been, and is, a major concern amongst the left.

If neither 'bloc' gets a majority, SD will have the decisive vote in parliament unless agreements are can be reached with parties from the other 'bloc' (I'm using 'bloc' in quotations as the left wing parties hardly function as one after attempting it as a tactic in the last elections). This is what I meant when talking about 'scalesmasters' above.

This is the situation at the moment, since 2010 when the bourgeois Alliance government failed to get over 50%. The Alliance has formally vowed not to cooperate with SD, but they have voted alike in about 8 cases of 10. However, in the few occasions SD has voted with the opposition, and thus thwarted a government proposal, PM Reinfeldt has vocally accused the redgreens of cooperating with SD.

[TheEmancipator]

What is the cause of the rise of far-right racist politics in the Nordic countries? Is it almost all due to a reaction against immigration?

Where Sweden differs from others is that they have historically played a major role in foreign aid schemes, refugee help, etc...Swedish Democrats basically come along and say that htye'll reduce the aid and welfare budget for foreigners and give it to Swedes.

They are buying votes indirectly, like most bourgeois parties.

Also, European politics is bbecoming americanized. More and more middle class people are taking up the ''ugh the state is out to get me'', ''I just want to be left alone'' etc... They want an equivalent to the Republican Party in Europe and the far right has taken over that mantle, because the far right will always change rhetoric to get more votes.

[Hrafn]

This election is really wearing on me. All the propaganda everywhere.

[Sentinel]

This election is really wearing on me. All the propaganda everywhere.

The slogans of the Liberal Peoples Party are the most entertaining/annoying. "Feminism without socialism!" is my favourite, but I also enjoy 'Vote for the schools' coming from a guy (Minister of Education Jan Björklund) who in 8 years has abolutely demolished Swedens international ratings in education levels.

We've dropped the most of all 33 OECD countries, from top of the notch to absolute shit results, in record time. But hey, it will all turn around starting now, we just have to trust Björklund on this one.

[RedWorker]

That a party like F! has even needed to appear is sad. Shows how much the major parties must care about women's issues and patriarchy, when a party needs to be specifically created to represent the interests of a section of the population that is even a majority.

But what are they on other issues? Socialdemocrats?