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Boris Kagarlitsky: ‘Polite intervention’ and the Ukrainian uprising
By Boris Kagarlitsky, Moscow; translated by Renfrey Clarke
March 4, 2014 – Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal -- Why, do you suppose, war has not yet broken out between Russia and Ukraine? The answer is very simple: no one plans to go to war, and no one can. Kiev for practical purposes does not have an army, while the government that has appeared in Kiev has no control over half of Ukraine, and cannot even exercise particular control over its own supporters. If the Ukrainian authorities make any serious attempt to mobilise their forces, this will merely provoke new protests. Even rumours of such a possibility have been enough to provoke anti-government demonstrations in Odessa.
Moscow, meanwhile, is rattling its sabres, but very cautiously. If the Kremlin were really serious about sending troops onto Ukrainian territory, it would not have asked permission from the Council of the Federation, but would simply have issued the order. Instead of real action we saw PR action, with a “unanimous vote by the senators”. A war broke out in the virtual space of the internet, backed by hysterical commentaries from liberals and malevolent howls from conservative propagandists. In essence, this was enough to fulfil the tasks faced by the authorities at present.
‘Neither peace nor war’
The psychological effect was almost as if we were waging a serious war somewhere near Kharkov. Meanwhile, there were no victims and there was no destruction. Unless, that is, we count the collapse of the ruble. Here too, however, things were not so simple; for several months, the Russian government and the Central Bank had been seeking a devaluation of the national currency. At least since September analysts had been forecasting figures of 37 rubles to the dollar and 50 to the euro. The Ukrainian events merely accelerated this process, and helped the financial authorities carry out their plan while evading responsibility for devaluing the savings of our citizens.
When a certain number of leftists, repeating century-old slogans, speak of “a war unleashed in the interests of large-scale capital”, they once again get things wrong. Instead of repeating clichés from old text books, what is needed is a little economic analysis. The truth is that large-scale capital, both private and bureaucratic, has no need at present for a war.
Human vices often rebound to the advantage of society. If our government and military leadership were made up of intelligent, principled and decisive people, we could indeed expect far more unpleasant developments. The Russian economy is highly dependent on the gas pipeline that passes through Ukraine. The economies of many European Union countries, not to speak of Ukraine, also depend on this pipeline operating without interruption. Of course, the investments made by “our” oligarchs in Ukrainian enterprises need defending, but military action would sooner exacerbate the problems here than solve them. The cynicism and avarice of our present-day rulers are the best guarantee that there will not be a major war.
The authorities in Kiev are also satisfied. They are able to employ the “Russian threat” to consolidate the new regime, to explain away economic difficulties as the result of external pressure, and in retrospect, to justify their own steps that have brought Ukraine to collapse. The present situation of “neither peace nor war” thus suits both governments perfectly, at least for the moment. The only significant cause for unease is Moscow’s aim of preserving the fugitive Viktor Yanukovich as the “real president”, while hinting at the possibility of restoring him to the Kievan throne.
But this should not be taken too seriously; as stated earlier, the people in the Kremlin are cynical, will not make any serious undertakings to the Ukrainian fugitive, and if they do, will break them. Of course, it is very convenient for the Kremlin authorities to have a “lawful president” on hand, but if an opportunity fails to present itself, the former legitimate ruler will be transformed in the space of five minutes into an unwelcome foreigner.
Crimea
In Crimea, Russian forces have restricted themselves to “polite intervention”. Of course, this was a violation of sovereignty, but let’s be honest: in an analogous situation the French, Americans and British would have done the same. When the French held off from intervening in Rwanda and allowed a bloodbath to go ahead, progressive opinion condemned them wrathfully for their inertia. When the same French state intervened in Mali and prevented a full-scale civil war, the same progressive opinion angrily denounced the intervention. An analogous situation has emerged with Crimea. Both possible decisions were associated with the prospect of serious political and moral losses, with the risk of coming under fire from domestic and international criticism. In Moscow the choice was in favour of a local intervention, but an effort was made to carry it out as cautiously as possible.
So far, Russian forces have acted in a far more restrained fashion than the French and Americans in similar situations. Perhaps this is not because of the government but despite it; on both sides, it may simply be that the good sense of the lower ranks has prevailed in conditions where the hierarchy of command has been weakened.
The Russian special forces have not stormed the bases of the Ukrainian troops, but march around them and squabble half-heartedly with the Ukrainian commanders trying to persuade the latter to hand over their weapons. The Ukrainians refuse, referring not to the oath they have taken and to their loyalty to their homeland, but to the fact that the weapons are state property, for which the commanders of the base are responsible. The Russians respond to these arguments with understanding; if they were in the place of their Ukrainian colleagues, they would do the same.
It is a new form of war, without gunfire or casualties. No one wants to start shooting, and no one particularly cares what happens to the obsolete armoured personnel carriers or to the firearms stored in the barracks. At any rate, neither side is prepared to risk life and limb and this provides cause for hope.
‘The sheepskin is not worth dividing up’
The Russian elites are mortally afraid of seriously angering the West, but in the West too people have realised that they will not achieve their goals in Ukraine without Russian help. The European Union does not need a zone of chaos on its eastern frontier, a new Somalia or Congo on its very doorstep. Nor is it possible for the EU to send its own troops or police onto Ukrainian territory, as in Bosnia or Kosovo, or at any rate without Russian assent.
The US press criticises Moscow fiercely, but indicates plainly that the US will not help Kiev, since there are no appropriate treaties and Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has already refused money to Kiev, in particularly blunt fashion. IMF head Christine Largarde has declared that Ukraine does not need immediate financial assistance:
We do not see anything critical that would be worth panicking about at the moment. We definitely hope that no-one rushes in with large sums, which would in fact be pointless if these contributions were not evaluated in the proper manner.
In Brussels and Washington, the decision evidently has already been made that the sheepskin, as we Russians say, is not worth dividing up, that with the prospects uncertain the risk is just too great. If anyone has to bear the moral, material and financial costs of restoring order, the thinking goes, then let it be the Russians.
In principle, the strategy of confining the conflict to Crimea alone suits both the Kremlin and the West – and perhaps even the new authorities in Kiev too. In recent times the German press has been urging Ukraine to sacrifice Crimea for the sake of integration into Europe. The problem, however, is that the process is developing spontaneously, and that it is no longer controlled by a few politicians. Both in Moscow and in Kiev the governments in the recent period have shown plainly that they are incapable of working out any long-term strategy. It is thus quite obvious that the crisis will grow and deepen, but not according to the scenario promised by the people who are terrifying themselves and others with the spectre of a Russo-Ukrainian war.
More than likely, the present authorities in Kiev will not hold out for long in any case. Commentators in Moscow who are sympathetic to them remind us constantly that most of the ministries in the new government are not held by radicals from Svoboda or the Right Sector, but by more moderate politicians. Meanwhile, the commentators neglect to mention that these “moderates” are hostages of the radicals. As Mao said, power comes from the barrel of a gun. In circumstances where the army has fallen to pieces, and the organs of law enforcement have either been smashed, or are demoralised, or have been placed under the control of the Right Sector, it is the radical nationalists who control the situation. The “moderates” in the government are only tolerated because they have promised to stop the eastern provinces splitting away. Now that they are failing to cope with this task, they will be purged. Either western Ukraine will move against Kiev as well, seeking the formation of a more resolute and “national” government as a “response to Russian aggression”, or the same impulse will come from within the capital itself. In either case, right-wing pressure will result in such a government being formed that Kiev itself will rise in revolt.
full article: http://links.org.au/node/3752
Anonymous have started a campaign against the Kiev Junta.
A group calling themselves cyber-berkut have blocked many Ukrainian government sites and claim to be responsible for the Catherine Ashton leak. They promise more unpleasant surprises for the fascists in the near future.
Facebook page
https://www.cyberguerrilla.org/blog/?p=17585
At the same time the Ukrainian government has blocked access to Ukrainians to many Russian sites as well as youtube (this I believe only for select areas in the Southern and Eastern regions). Websites belonging to the Ukrainian government will delete all Russian language content before 10th March. Russian TV reception has also been disconnected in Ukraine.
A Ukrainian newspaper has published a draft with the list of economic reforms the Junta will undertake in order to pay back EU/IMF debts. Among these are:
- cancellation of practically all subsidies for science and research as well education.
- Severe cuts to the salaries of medical personnel as well as to subsidized healthcare
- price hikes of utilities (increase predicted to be around 300%) and state subsidies for public transport.
- All pensions will be cut in half.
- Eligibility for unemployment benefits only after 6 months continuous employment.
- cancellation of subsidies to practically all sport-clubs and sport related schools for children and youths.
- Price increase for school lunches.
- Raising of college tuition fees.
- Privatization of state owned mass media including printing presses.
Additionally it is rumored that the Power stations will be sold off (at discount prices naturally) to the German energy conglomerate RWE. This is a potentially hazardous turn of events. There are 7 active nuclear power stations in Ukraine providing around 50% of all electricity. During the Yushenko presidency they temporarily stopped buying Russian nuclear fuel and started using German nuclear fuel instead. The problem is - it turned out to be incompatible, resulting in frequently taking the power plants offline for lengthy maintainance repairs. At last they resumed using Russian nuclear fuel again. However with the looming sanctions against Russia and the takeover of the power plants by RWE the problem is likely to arise again. Let's hope that German capitalists do not create a second (or several) Chernobyl incidents.
Russian officials are now looking into constitutional measures they can take, in order to confiscate EU/US assets in Russia in case of sanctions. There are a lot of factories there built by many huge US/EU based international corporations.
Fuckkk! The IMF don't hang about, do they? bloody hell...
“ The guard is tired. I propose that you close the meeting and let everybody go home. ”
Does anyone know more about this?
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...es-338745.html
The second question is about Crimea formally remaining a part of Ukraine, while becoming de-facto independent.
I don't think that Russian or Ukrainian elites actually want a war so far, but nationalistic propaganda and rhetoric gone on for too long can, unhappily, have certain unintended consequences. Hope they won't come to pass.
Swedish nazis are reported to be travelling to Ukraine to learn from and assist their Svoboda friends.![]()
The revolutionary despises public opinion. He despises and hates the existing social morality in all its manifestations. For him, morality is everything which contributes to the triumph of the revolution. Immoral and criminal is everything that stands in its way.
ex. Takayuki
There is now reliable information from the workers at the Borispol airport that many mercenaries are being flown in from all over the world. The number being mentioned is 30 planes per day. It is suspected they will be used in attacks on Crimea and to repel Russian forces, should these cross the border to protect ethnic Russians in case of mass ethnic cleansing. They are estimated to number from 3,5 to 4 thousand and growing. Moreover, some Ukrainian army detachments have began moving out to take positions. Yesterday I posted a video documenting a huge artillery column moving towards the border with Crimea.
Today there is info that a regiment from Sumsk Oblast together with the tank division from Desna are taking positions along the north-eastern border in preparations to repel any possible attacks by the Russian army from that direction.
Moreover in addition to Right Sector political commissars having formally taken charge of all military units an accelerated rotation of soldiers and officers serving all over the country has been enacted. Normally the soldiers in Ukraine serve where they come from, but fearing that their loyalty does not lie with the Kiev authorities (understandably so - the soldiers will not shoot their relatives) this enables the authorities to exchange the soldiers in the unruly regions with loyal ones from the West, who due to russophobic indoctrination will have less qualms to follow orders.
In Crimea itself a group of Right Sector fighters was arrested. There is info they are being sent in in order to execute terrorist attacks and stop the referendum.
Last edited by aristos; 8th March 2014 at 16:58.
In Donetsk where there are increasing clashes between the ever increasing anti-Kiev movement and authorities. The local Berkut forces have openly stated that they are on the side of the local populace and therefore will not follow orders to disperse the crowds, on the contrary they seem to have taken arms against the Oligarch appointed as Governor by Kiev and his cronies. At the same time more and more police from other regions are being sent to Donetsk to suppress the resistance. The lower ranking police officers themselves are supposed to have spilled the beans about how their own families have been practically taken hostage back home in Western Ukraine, so that either they put down the unrest using any means necessary or their families will suffer.
Also leaders of the more militant resistance movements in other parts of the country have begun disappearing.
In Kiev itself the situation is rapidly getting worse and worse for the inhabitants. The armed thugs, be they Right Sector gangs, ordinary criminals, or those who feel they can use the lawlessness to their personal advantage have been terrorizing the city ever since Yanukovich fled and cops disappeared from the streets. The inhabitants of Kiev are requested (ordered) to help out with restoration works (the entire area of the Maidan protest has been severely damaged) and if they refuse will have 10% deducted from their salaries to pay for the repairs. Needless to say, in such a chaotic situation those 10% will quietly disappear into certain private pockets.
Abductions, rape and disappearances are the order of the day. Armed men occupy offices and houses. They force the owners of the offices to pay for all the utilities the thugs are using threatening violence in case of refusals. Kiev is also now being overwhelmed by the poor inhabitants from other parts of the country, mostly from decrepit villages, who have set their eyes on the relative splendour of the capital. Since no one is taking responsibility for public order, if you are armed you can take what you want. Violent redistribution of wealth, in other words. Most Kievans are now in shock at what has come out of the protests they so passionately supported a mere week or two ago. Anyone who still can is trying to sell off all their real estate and flee (and with each day this veering more and more towards the impossible). Naturally, the vast majority most don't have the means to escape.
I wrote earlier that the Right Sector have taken control of the Kiev morgue and crematorium.
The crematorium, as seen by the emanating smoke, is currently working non-stop. Kievans are saying among themselves that this is an action geared towards hiding evidence of the constant terror by criminal gangs associated with the Maidan "self-defence"-committees operating all around Kiev.
A source working just across the street from the morgue reports that trucks are unloading long, seemingly heavy, bulky objects wrapped in plastic garbage bags. Before, usually the morgue received a couple of bodies frequently throughout the day. Now the deliveries are done once every 24 hours at night and in large bulk.
A Kiev woman has reported that her son-in-law was stopped in the street a couple of days ago, stuffed into a car and taken away. He was one of the leaders of anti-maidan activists who demanded back in January and February that the city centre be cleared of the barricades and was advised several times beforehand to leave the city. The despairing woman was able to persuade one of the "nicer" "self-defence"-officers to find out what happened. After making inquiries he told her that it was too late for him, but that the woman should accept this and move on, and instead "think about her daughter and grandchildren and not do anything stupid".
Not that I don't believe this but without sources you might as well be making all of this shit up. Can you link to wherever you're reading this stuff?
Man is but a goat in the hands of butchers
At the Borispol airport, tonight at 2 a.m. arrived 4 CIT vans and two Volkswagen cargo trucks. In very short order, 15 armed masked men in body armour, dressed in black, unloaded 40+ strongboxes from the CIT vans onto a chartered jet and took off. It is speculated they have flown out the Ukrainian gold reserves. The troubled airport personnel informed the airport administration about this, after which they were firmly told to mind their own business.
Later today a source in the Ministry for Taxes and Income told that according to his information on the order of the leaders of the provisional government the entire gold reserves of Ukraine were flown out to the United States.
For anyone who speaks Russian here are some blogs with different info, you can find the original sources there:
http://hippy-end.livejournal.com/239976.html
http://putnik1.livejournal.com
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com
http://ai-zhilin.livejournal.com
http://gleb1368.livejournal.com
http://eduard-456.livejournal.com
http://ivakin-alexey.livejournal.com
http://grey-croco.livejournal.com
http://ukrnovosti.net
http://ukrainefacedchoice.odnako.org
Last edited by aristos; 9th March 2014 at 01:50.
This is going to be interesting:
Ukraine has missed its payment deadline for gas supplies. As its debt is increasing, Gazprom does not rule out it may cut gas supplies to the country, the Russian energy giant’s head Aleksey Miller has said.
“Today, March 7, is the deadline for making a payment for the February gas supplies to Ukraine,” Miller told journalists on Friday, adding that Gazprom has not received payment on account.
“Given the discount for the first quarter the outstanding debt has increased to $1.89 billion,” Miller added.
“Factually it means that Ukraine has stopped paying for gas. This contravenes the contract terms and international trade practice. But we can’t deliver gas for free”.
If Ukraine doesn’t pay its bills it risks plunging into a crisis similar to the one in 2009, Miller warned.
During the transit crisis five years ago supplies of Russian gas to Europe were cut off for 20 days because of the tension between Russia and Ukraine.
Earlier this week President Putin said that starting from April 1 Gazprom would no longer offer Ukraine the lower price agreed in December. The aid package to Kiev included $15 billion in bonds purchases and a 33 percent gas discount, that reduced the price to $268.50 per 1,000 cubic meters down from $400.
Currently Ukraine buys more than 50 percent of its gas from Russia, but aims to become energy independent by 2020. Before the protest kicked off in Ukraine, the country signed a $10 billion shale gas exploration deal with Chevron.
That's fracking wonderful, too. Mmm the Russian and Euroamerican imperialist struggling over who controls the gas supplies. Though I think that the dubious underwater pipeline between Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea is operational, right? So it wouldn't throttle supplies to Germany totally.
The revolutionary despises public opinion. He despises and hates the existing social morality in all its manifestations. For him, morality is everything which contributes to the triumph of the revolution. Immoral and criminal is everything that stands in its way.
ex. Takayuki
One of these vermin - from the nazi Party of the Swedes - was also given at least 5 minutes on national radio a few days ago, to pretty much unchallengedly propagate his views and why he wants to help create a Ukraine for 'genetical ukrainians'. Totally incredible.
***
But yeah, this really is a crisis with a big C. Imo the soundest position really is to condemn the fascist junta in Kiev, support national self-determination for the russian minority, with rights for majority russian regions to decide which country to belong to and restored minority rights for others.
That said, the motives of Putin to invade are obviously questionable as well, and frankly his regime is only marginally better when it comes to minority rights. The natural thing is to call for workers self-organisation as a solution here.
But I'm pessimistic that is realistic to expect before the clash of conflicting nationalist and imperialist interests we seem to be moving towards fast, happens and workers from all nationalities suffer again.
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NordStream is operational but in 2013 was working at 40% of maximum capacity.
However, Russian gas is also fed to Europe via two other pipelines (not counting Ukraine).
The "Olga" in the conversation between Estonian FM Paet and EU's Asthon has for her part said that she never recalled having that conversation and that she was not qualified to make autopsies of any kind
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/20...sianstyle.html
I'm guessing the source they're referring to is this pravda but I can't read it...
The "Olga" in question is Olga Bogomolets - a Ukrainian multi-millionaire medical entrepreneur and owner of a chain of medical clinics, who was featured in the news in Ukraine last summer, because a rights activist accused her of sending thugs after him, who knocked out his teeth and brutally beat him (he suffered damage to internal organs) on the day of the court hearing, where he accused her of illegally appropriating the land and river surrounding her castle.
For those speaking Russian here are the links:
http://ru.tsn.ua/ukrayina/izvestnogo...ka-315906.html
http://www.ua-pravda.com/slabiy-pol/...i-ukraini.html