2012 French Presidential Elections

**Red Commissar** · 22nd April 2012, 20:56

Disappointing to see that Le Pen got a result as high as she did. And of course, the whole spectacle of elections. In the end though, not much will change for the working people as far as austerity and the ongoing economic crises goes. Sarkozy gets re-elected, shit continues, Hollande gets elected, it continues under a different face.

Obligatory news link, excuse the mainstream terminology and interpretation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17806398

France election: Francois Hollande 'wins first round'

French Socialist Francois Hollande has won most votes in the first round of the country's presidential election, early results show.

They suggest he got more than 28% of votes against about 26% for centre-right incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

The two men will face each other in a second round on 6 May.

Mr Sarkozy said it had been a "crisis vote" and called for three presidential debates before the run-off. The poll has been dominated by economic worries.

Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen came third with about 19% of the vote, ahead of seven other candidates.

The estimates - based on votes counted in polling stations that closed early at 18:00 (16:00 GMT) - were announced by French media when all voting ended at 20:00.

Afterwards, Mr Hollande said he was "best placed to become the next president of the republic" and that Mr Sarkozy had been punished by voters.

It is the first time a French president running for re-election has failed to win the first round since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

Mr Sarkozy - who has been in power since 2007 - said he understood "the anguish felt by the French" in a "fast-moving world".

He called for three debates during the two weeks to the second round - centring on the economy, social issues, and international relations.

He said he felt confident ahead of the run-off and called on French people to rally behind him.
Far-right shock

Turnout on Sunday was high, with more than 80%.

Ms Le Pen, who leads the anti-immigration National Front, achieved more than the breakthrough score polled in 2002 by her father and predecessor, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who got through to the second round with more than 16%.

After the vote, Ms Le Pen told jubilant supporters that the FN's result was "only the start" and that the party was now "the only opposition" to the left.

Leftist candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who was supported by the Communist Party, came fourth with almost 12%.

Centrist Francois Bayrou, who was hoping to repeat his high 2007 score of 18%, garnered only about 9%.

Wages, pensions, taxation, and unemployment have been topping the list of voters' concerns.

President Sarkozy has promised to reduce France's large budget deficit and to tax people who leave the country for tax reasons.

Mr Hollande has strongly criticised Mr Sarkozy's economic record.

The Socialist candidate has promised to raise taxes on big corporations and people earning more than 1m euros a year.

He also wants to raise the minimum wage, hire 60,000 more teachers and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for some workers.

If elected, Mr Hollande would be France's first left-wing president since Francois Mitterrand, who completed two seven-year terms between 1981 and 1995.

If Mr Sarkozy loses he will become the first president not to win a second term since Valery Giscard d'Estaing in 1981.

François Hollande (PS) 28.8 %
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 26.1 %
Marine Le Pen (FN) 18.5 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (FdG) 11.7%
François Bayrou (MoDem) 8.8 %
Eva Joly (Green) 2.3%
Nicolas Dupont-aignan (DLR) 1.8%
Philippe Poutou (NPA) 1.2 %
Nathalie Arthaud (LO) 0.6 %
Jacques Cheminade (SeP, LaRouche) 0.2 %

Reading Le Monde indicates that Melenchon's Left Front has called for supporters to vote for Hollande in the second round; "Lesser of two evils" mindset there.

**Crux** · 22nd April 2012, 21:16

I see the LaRocheite got 0.2%...:P
It's sad to see the fascists surge though, I was hoping to see the FG beat out the FN at least.

**Goblin** · 22nd April 2012, 21:28

Poor Eva Joly

lol

**KurtFF8** · 22nd April 2012, 21:38

It's too bad that Mélenchon was quite ahead of Le Pen just a few weeks ago and just recently fell behind. The small surge of Mélenchon was interesting though

**marl** · 22nd April 2012, 21:56

How the hell did Le Pen beat Mélenchon? Toulouse?

**Crux** · 22nd April 2012, 23:23

I think much of FG's support must have gone back to the PS.

**Sentinel** · 23rd April 2012, 00:01

French politics being bit of a gap in my knowledge, I don't recognise all of those parties. Of the ones I do recognise I know embarassingly little.

So, which ones of those parties, and of their respective voters, are likely to back Hollande and which ones Sarkozy? Could anyone give us a brief summary of the parties and the overall situation?

Predictions of the outcome of the second round would also be exciting to hear.

**Crux** · 23rd April 2012, 00:45

Pretty sure Hollande will win. Would be suprised to see Sarkozy make it through. Big yawn.

**DaringMehring** · 23rd April 2012, 01:26

(Google translation)
Lutte Ouvriere's port-parole (spokesperson) and candidate:
Press Nathalie Arthaud evening of the first round

Sarkozy and Holland are the two candidates running for the second round with a lead such as Holland for his election seems likely.

Most disturbing in the results is the percentage of votes for Le Pen. It is the expression of strengthening of the extreme right in public opinion. This rise of the far right is a threat to workers.

Unfortunately, the election of Holland as President of the Republic and the possibility of a socialist government does nothing to protect workers against this threat. For, more will be great dissatisfaction with the austerity measures that Holland will have to take the pressure of the financial community, the more it will strengthen the extreme right.

Only by strengthening the forces that lie on the ground of political interests of the working class can be a counterweight to the strengthening of the extreme right and prevent it monopolize the opposition.

I thank the approximately two hundred thousand voters who voted for my candidacy. They scored, by this vote, as well as their rejection of Sarkozy their distrust of Holland. They showed they are not fooled by the false choice of this presidential election, where the real power, that of money, that of big business and bankers, is not subject to popular vote.

Those who voted for my candidacy voted for the control program that I have defended throughout my campaign. They called for the prohibition of dismissal, the distribution of work between all without loss of salary and wage increases, retirement and pension and automatic indexation of the price increases, are in head Claims future workers' struggles. They expressed their conviction that we must not let the capitalist class management without control of companies and banks, because the use it makes of its dictatorial power goes against the interests of society. They also helped to show that the current Communist minority to it, is always present.

I am convinced that the control program that I defended was heard far beyond.

I do not own voices, in the first round, have made on my behalf. In the second round, my constituents will vote their conscience.

No conscious worker can obviously vote for Nicolas Sarkozy, President of the rich man who, during the five years of his power, was the faithful servant of the capitalist groups and bankers.

Some of my constituents, faced with the choice between a peep open enemy of workers and a false friend, abstain or vote white. Further, to get rid of Sarkozy, will vote for Francois Hollande.

Whatever their personal choice, I call workers, victims of the crisis to end up together in the inevitable struggles against big business, bankers and government.

We can not rely on anyone to defend us, nor the president nor the government. But we have the strength to defend ourselves, because it is us who drive our economy. If we have a clear awareness of our material and political interests and if we are determined to impose them, our strength is irresistible!

Nathalie Arthaud

**Red Commissar** · 23rd April 2012, 03:06

Originally Posted by Sentinel

French politics being bit of a gap in my knowledge, I don't recognise all of those parties. Of the ones I do recognise I know embarassingly little.

So, which ones of those parties, and of their respective voters, are likely to back Hollande and which ones Sarkozy? Could anyone give us a brief summary of the parties and the overall situation?

Predictions of the outcome of the second round would also be exciting to hear.

I'm not too familiar with them either. This helped me understand it a little, though it doesn't put the policies of some of the smaller groups out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16730494

Le Monde has a much more in-depth one showing all the platforms of the candidates. Click on the candidates and you'll get the programs they released. You can compare them side by side too. You can run the French through a translator if you can't read it, google doesn't do a bad job putting it into English for me.

Liberation also has an interactive chart and map that lets you look at the results of the previous election as well as that in 2002.

As who will support who, I read via google translate on Le Monde that Melenchon and the FdG is calling for their supporters to back Hollande, which the Green Party has also done. DM's already posted a statement from LO that says they do not want their people doing that, as they said it does nothing to protect workers and might further embolden far-right. Don't know about NPA.

As for some of the other groups, I'm not sure. The DLR is some Gaullists who split from UMP and they'll obviously throw their small weight behind the UMP. I feel that more of the people who voted for Bayou and Le Pen will go for Sarkozy over Hollande though, if they feel motivated to go to vote in the second round. It appears that the last time Bayou ran in 2007, even though he did not officially endorse anyone in the second round, a good chunk of those who voted for him went for Sarkozy; this time around though they might be more divided. Some people are speculating some of the Le Pen voters might be split and some'd go to Hollande; reading one source that says 60% probably would vote for Sarkozy, 18% for Hollande, and the rest would not vote. They haven't made official statements themselves beyond the FN gloating about their results. I must note though that FN can be an odd one- despite their performance in 2002 beating out the PS candidate, in the second round they got steamrolled by Chirac and ended up receiving less votes in the second round than in the first.

Edit: Found this article which speculates on who'll do what in the second round

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presi...0_1471069.html

Excuse me for google translate, tried my best to make it readable.

How would the support of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Bayrou affect Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy? The question is one of the major points of the second round. But giving accurate estimates remain difficult. Because of limited samples of voters voting for a particular candidate, sometimes we get fluctuations. The reports are also difficult to describe because they depend on instructions - or non-instructions - given by the staffs, but also the behavior of the two finalists.

A survey Logica Business Consulting France Television-Radio-France-The World-The Point, conducted at 20 am, Sunday, April 22, on a sample of 1,090 people representative of the French population, which places Francois Hollande leads with 54% of voice, can get an idea of the answer.

-Voters would vote for Le Pen to 60% for Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande for 18% and 22% would abstain, according to this study. These proportions are similar to the report of votes in 2007, according to a poll conducted May 6, 2007 by Ipsos.
-But this swap of Le Pen voters to Sarkozy has jumped in recent days, when compared to Ipsos from April 18-19: 45% of FN voters said they wanted first round of voting Sarkozy in the second, 43% planning to abstain.
-Francois Bayrou voters would be divided into thirds, one third for Francois Hollande (33%), third for Nicolas Sarkozy (32%) and a third who would refrain (35%). In 2007, these reports were more important for Nicolas Sarkozy with 40%, according to Ipsos.
-86% of voters in Jean-Luc Melenchon vote for Francois Hollande and 11% would abstain, 1% would vote for Nicolas Sarkozy. Jean-Luc Melenchon clearly asked his constituents to "mobilize to defeat Nicolas Sarkozy."

With these reports, Francois Hollande is given victory in the second round, according to the Ipsos April 22, with 54% against 46% for Nicolas Sarkozy.

This survey, conducted 20 hours later, is to be taken with caution, since neither Le Pen or Bayrou gave voting instructions.

Bayrou said about it: "I will speak to both selected for the second round, I'll tell them our concerns and I will be attentive to their responses."

Another poll released on the evening of the first round, this time by CSA, gives somewhat different figures:

-The voters of Jean-Luc Melenchon would refer to 91% of Mr. Holland, to 3% on Sarkozy and 6% would abstain.
-Those of François Bayrou vote to 40% for Francois Hollande, 25% for Nicolas Sarkozy and 35% would abstain.
-Those of Le Pen would choose Francois Hollande to 27%, Nicolas Sarkozy at 52% and 21% would abstain.

With this second model, Francois Hollande wins the election with a large gap (56 to 58%).

Other opinion polls published just days before the first round illuminate the question of postponements of votes. Thus, according to TNS Sofres, deferrals would be:

-The voters of Jean-Luc Melenchon to 82% would vote for Francis Holland in the second round at 6% for Nicolas Sarkozy, 12% abstaining.
-Francois Bayrou voters would vote 32% to Holland in the second round, 33% choosing Nicolas Sarkozy and 35% abstaining.
-Marine Le Pen of those 27% would vote to Holland, 40% to 33% vote Sarkozy and to abstain.

With these figures, Nicolas Sarkozy would again be largely defeated in the 2nd round (46 to 44%).

These surveys are to be taken with caution: there are still two weeks of campaigning to Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande to mobilize around their supporters and move these figures. They show, however, that Nicolas Sarkozy does not start favorably for the second round.

**Crux** · 23rd April 2012, 10:11

I see 3% of FG's voters are trolls. How else to explain a shift to sarko?

**Tabarnack** · 23rd April 2012, 15:17

I would like to point out that much of the voting in this election was recorded by a company formerly known as Diebold.

**Yuppie Grinder** · 23rd April 2012, 15:25

I remember reading in The Economist a couple of years ago that the National Front had a solid chance of winning the presidency. Glad to see that didn't happen.

**Left Leanings** · 23rd April 2012, 15:32

Originally Posted by KurtFF8

It's too bad that Mélenchon was quite ahead of Le Pen just a few weeks ago and just recently fell behind. The small surge of Mélenchon was interesting though

This is true. I think at one point, he was on something like 17.5%, so on polling day itself, he fell well behind.

Elsewhere on these boards, someone posted that Melenchon had debated with Le Pen. And she had looked genuinely uncomfortable.

That Marine Le Pen has done so well, on such a high electoral turnout is discomforting.

**KurtFF8** · 23rd April 2012, 15:41

Originally Posted by Left Leanings

That Marine Le Pen has done so well, on such a high electoral turnout is discomforting.

It is indeed discomforting, as it should be. But we should of course remember how close it was between the Far Left and Far Right in this election which is an important thing to point out. It's sad that that's where France is (having to even seek comfort in that "it was close") but it's a far cry from the idea that "the Left is dead in France and is simply being replaced by the Far Right!" Fortunately, Mélencho's campaign shows that there are political forces actively organizing to stop the ascendance of the Right. How successful that will be is yet to be seen of course.

**Delenda Carthago** · 23rd April 2012, 15:48

I wish the worst for both Hollande and Mélenchon.

**Tabarnack** · 23rd April 2012, 15:58

Originally Posted by Delenda Carthago

I wish the worst for both Hollande and Mélenchon.

That statement coming from someone from greece ? much of Mélenchon campaign was focused on Greece and the injustice of imposing austerity on that country when it was the banking institutions that was responsible for the crisis.

**Tabarnack** · 23rd April 2012, 16:01

??? can anybody confirm this...

Paris, Apr 23 (Prensa Latina) Socialist Party (PS)candidate in the French presidential Francois Hollande won the opening round of general elections held on Sunday, confirmed official results by the Ministry of Interior.

After being counted the 98.1 percent of votes, PS candidate won the 28.56 percent against the 27.09 percent to President Nicolas Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement party.

Both candidates will face again in second round elections, scheduled for May 6, where the French president will be elected to rule for the coming five years.

Left Front party candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon won the 18.17 percent of votes, placing him in third place.

While the difference is not remarkable, of just one and a half point, the psychological impact of this initial victory is important for voters and also to the negotiations started with other political forces for the final round.

**Red Commissar** · 23rd April 2012, 16:10

Originally Posted by Majakovskij

I see 3% of FG's voters are trolls. How else to explain a shift to sarko?

I wasn't really sure with that too. Again depends on the techniques the different opinion pollers used in forming their predictions. If there is a case of someone who voted for Melenchon only to go Sarkozy later, the potential reasons could be:

-They might think a right-wing president would give more room for the "left" to agitate.
-They may have voted for Melenchon for his populism and went for Sarko on his immigration stances.
-They may have been right-wing voters who thought Melenchon could split Hollande's votes in the first round and potentially cause a repeat of 2002.

Again though, opinion polling isn't much to go by. As far as anyone is concerned they may've quickly pulled numbers out of their ass to make things look "fair".

I suspect Melenchon's numbers may've been higher, though like you said there may've been voters who switched back to PS as a matter of "tactical voting".

Originally Posted by Tabarnack

??? can anybody confirm this...

Paris, Apr 23 (Prensa Latina) Socialist Party (PS)candidate in the French presidential Francois Hollande won the opening round of general elections held on Sunday, confirmed official results by the Ministry of Interior.

After being counted the 98.1 percent of votes, PS candidate won the 28.56 percent against the 27.09 percent to President Nicolas Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement party.

Both candidates will face again in second round elections, scheduled for May 6, where the French president will be elected to rule for the coming five years.

Left Front party candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon won the 18.17 percent of votes, placing him in third place.

While the difference is not remarkable, of just one and a half point, the psychological impact of this initial victory is important for voters and also to the negotiations started with other political forces for the final round.

Not sure where they got that number from. The French interior ministry reports the results as so:

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/PR2012/FE.html

Mme Eva JOLY 828,451 votes 2.31%
Mme Marine LE PEN 6,421,773 votes 17.90%
M. Nicolas SARKOZY 9,753,844 votes 27.18%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 3,985,298 votes 11.11%
M. Philippe POUTOU, 411,178 votes votes 1.15%
Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD 202,562 votes 0.56%
M. Jacques CHEMINADE 89, 572 votes 0.25%
M. François BAYROU 3,275,349 votes 9.13%
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN 644,086 votes 1.79%
M. François HOLLANDE 10,273,582 votes 28.63%

**Tabarnack** · 23rd April 2012, 16:17

Originally Posted by Red Commissar

Mme Eva JOLY 828,451 votes 2.31%
Mme Marine LE PEN 6,421,773 votes 17.90%
M. Nicolas SARKOZY 9,753,844 votes 27.18%
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 3,985,298 votes 11.11%
M. Philippe POUTOU, 411,178 votes votes 1.15%
Mme Nathalie ARTHAUD 202,562 votes 0.56%
M. Jacques CHEMINADE 89, 572 votes 0.25%
M. François BAYROU 3,275,349 votes 9.13%
M. Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN 644,086 votes 1.79%
M. François HOLLANDE 10,273,582 votes 28.63%

Thanks for the official results...

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