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Now it's Libya....?
Will Libya be the next regime to fall....?
http://it.notizie.yahoo.com/6/201102...c-f2e1b63.html
http://it.notizie.yahoo.com/7/201102...e-09e26cd.html
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20110219/...s-3fd0ae9.html
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Yup
A pretty interesting (albeit short) commentary on it here, which was posted in the other Libya thread.
"Win, lose or draw...long as you squabble and you get down, that's gangsta."
Bahrain is also seeing many demonstrations, and with its demographic makeup, it would be in the interest of the monarchy to make an overarching deal with the shiite population quickly. The situation there, I believe, will depend on whether the King is willing to immediately make moves towards becoming a constitutional monarch with much less power or whether he will not see the writing on the wall until his plane is on the runway preparing for takeoff.
What irks me about Libya and Iran is that in both cases the glorious leaders hail themselves as the revolutionaries, despite being in charge for so long the vast majority of the people know no other ruler. They literally call it defending the revolution when the crackdown on revolution, it gets to me a bit.
edit: Al Jazeera is reporting 84 Libyans have been killed by the state thus far. I cannot sympathize for nor praise the protestors enough.
Well I'm lookin real hard and I'm trying to find a job but it just keeps gettin tougher every day
Get it, get it people, watch Algeria go, watch Saudi Arabia and the US shit themselves.
Bahrain is the country they are shitting themselves over on Fox 'news'. Apparently their waters are the key to oil distribution to the west and the US military has a large navy presence based there.
The 5th fleet is stationed there. If the govt is toppled and it is apparent the US forces have to leave, a move to Qatar would be the most probably move in my opinion. That being said, that may not be possible, but I highly highly doubt the gulf kingdoms would allow Iran to take uncontested control of the gulf.
That being said, we are far from that point.
Well I'm lookin real hard and I'm trying to find a job but it just keeps gettin tougher every day
I don't think there will be much trouble from the US is these revolutions continue in the rather reasonable way the Egyptian and Tunisian Revolution have. I doubt there will be any real change in forign policy for these countries if a reasonable democracy gets in and by all accounts that's the way things are looking.
As a matter of fact it these countries could be opened up as markets we mught actually see a lowering of the price of oil in the long run which won't be a bad thing at all.
Bahrain worries me. Not that I think a large percentag shia population means a revolution is going to end up like Iran, but with 70% of the population being ruled by the minority, and that minority not afraid to shoot into crowds to keep control....I do think the sectarian divide has the potential to make things a lot more ugly if that's how it breaks down.
Not saying that it will, in Egypt the unity between muslims and coptic christians was inspiring. Just saying that the potential for, how might I say, an ugly revolutionary aftermath might be something to worry about.
Well I'm lookin real hard and I'm trying to find a job but it just keeps gettin tougher every day
The thing is that in Egypt they weren't fighting for Allah--they were revolting for bread. I don't think the Egyptians would do anything further to upset a rather weak economy. The Reason Mubarak fell is that for the longest time he made a bargan with the Egyptian peoplehe would subsidize the price of bread and housing if they would keep the status quo politically. He failed to keep his part of the bargan--so he had to go.
For the most part Egypt hasn't been a major player on any economic markets. If Democracy gets in maybe Egypt can strenthen its positins and become more economically viable.
The same with the rest of the Middle East. For the most part these countries produce nothing but oil--Iit's time they begin to become a part of the modern economic world.
That's the bastard.
Iran is an interesting one. It's clear to see that the US puppet regimes in the middle east are falling and their influence will dwindle, which is probably a reason why there has been an increase of blatant Islamophobia on the corporatist Fox 'news' recently in order to hypntoise it's viewers on the 'threat' of Iran.
Sean 'cockroach' Hannity had a special of his show last night called 'Iranium' which previewed parts of a film by the same name. It was the usual lies, fear-mongering and usage of terms such as 'US/Israel security concerns', 'US interests', 'our democracy', all in the attempt of swaying the viewer in favour of bombing the fuck out of Iran. The two directors of the film were sitting beside Sean.... two hardcore Zionists
before that we had Bill 'ballbag' O'Reilly spouting straight out attacks on Muslims and stereotyping that the whole Middle east has a Mulism problem, but Geraldo Rivera intervened and tried to correct him, but O'Reilly cemented his Islamophobic rhetoric
Take away the oil and some of these countries don't have much else. Why do you think the Emirates such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been investing in tourism and promoting their city-states as finance centres etc? When the oil runs out... what next?
I can't see the absolute monarchies of the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia falling somehow.
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We shouldn't go to war with Iran, though there is a market for sabre rattling bravado by these morons.That's the bastard.
Iran is an interesting one. It's clear to see that the US puppet regimes in the middle east are falling and their influence will dwindle, which is probably a reason why there has been an increase of blatant Islamophobia on the corporatist Fox 'news' recently in order to hypntoise it's viewers on the 'threat' of Iran.
Sean 'cockroach' Hannity had a special of his show last night called 'Iranium' which previewed parts of a film by the same name. It was the usual lies, fear-mongering and usage of terms such as 'US/Israel security concerns', 'US interests', 'our democracy', all in the attempt of swaying the viewer in favour of bombing the fuck out of Iran. The two directors of the film were sitting beside Sean.... two hardcore Zionists
before that we had Bill 'ballbag' O'Reilly spouting straight out attacks on Muslims and stereotyping that the whole Middle east has a Mulism problem, but Geraldo Rivera intervened and tried to correct him, but O'Reilly cemented his Islamophobic rhetoric
There have been protests in Iran on monday, that, despite being brutally checked by the authorities, showed that the opposition movement they tried to squash in 2009 is still very much alive.
Well I'm lookin real hard and I'm trying to find a job but it just keeps gettin tougher every day
Some of the videos coming out of Libya are among the bloodiest seen in the protests thus far. On Al Jazeera the guest is saying there are reports of populace taking over cities and the armies siding with them. Gaddafi is reportedly using African mercenaries to try and keep control.
Well I'm lookin real hard and I'm trying to find a job but it just keeps gettin tougher every day
Reports say that in the last three days 85 people were killed. There are both massive protestst pro and con Gadaffi.
Libya deserves to be free, however for political and strategical purposes in the current balance of power it is not so much interesting as Bahrain. If that falls teh US government is in for some deep deep trouble.
That said...Lybia is one of the most critical states within the Israel-Palestinian conflict however and strongly disapproves of other Arabic countries having dealings with Israel.
Hooray for the internet!
To speculate is human; to hedge, divine
The revolution will not be televised!...
It will be blogged
It will also probably be trolled on RevLeft...
It seems like the Libyan regime are not being as "affable" towards the revolution as their Egy'ptian (former) counterparts.
As far as the absolute monarchies are concerned I don't think there can be compromise. The kings/sultans/emirs etc are either kings in the fulls sense of the word, or they are nothing. They will be concerned about losing face and being perceived as weak.
Well, who would have thought, anyway, that 2011 would be like the 1848 or year of revolutions in the Arab/Islamic world?
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Ok...here is what I understand so far.
There is much confusion about who protests where. It seems to be the case that pro- and con- Gadaffi protests are orchestrated simultaniously.
As it now seems the protests in and around Tripoli are pro-Gadaffi. It is these protests Gadaffi attended (in reference to the OI thread).
In the east in Benghazi, Tobruk and Misurata the protests are anti-Gadaffi.
There seems to be a split between the North-west and East in the country considering popular opinions....that creates a possibility for the government to start rumours circulating about the nature of the protests. As we have seen in Tunesia and Egypt they try to blame foreign agents for the "riots". This is succesful in the northern part of the country which largely agrees with the current government.
However....religious leaders and tribal elders in the north have condemned the killing of civilians by the government and by government supporters. Stating this is against God.
Rumoured is that there will be, or currently are, also anti-Gadaffi protests in the North which are hampered by severe security presence in the cities.
Up until now the government cuold count on support of the tribal elders and leaders. Unfortunately there are increasing (UNCONFIRMED) reports of rapes and sexual assaults committed by security forces and pro-government supporters. As I am informed this will mean that if there are tribal women amongst the victims of these assaults the tribes will not support Gadaffi much longer seeing as how this now becomes a question of tribal honour...envoking rights orf revenge.
If the tribal support for Gadaffi stops then he will have an increasing narrow support base and these tribes ARE armed...and WILL use force. Or so I am told.
