Fourth International: If Trotsky had survived WWII

[Die Neue Zeit]

I think [Trotsky] shouldn't have been killed...

just so WWII could discredit him further.

As we all know, Trotsky made the prediction that either a workers' revolution would correct the "degenerated workers' state" mess in the Soviet Union, or the Soviet Union itself would have been militarily conquered by the Nazis and Western imperialists. Side by side with this prediction was his prediction of the "death agony of capitalism."

The first prediction did not come to pass, and the "death agony of capitalism" was merely the substantial but not total demise of British imperialism.

If Trotsky had survived WWII, would he have suggested entryism into the official, mass Communist parties like Michel Pablo did? Would he have modified his scant remarks on entryism so as to limit entry towards these parties, and not towards social-democratic ones? Would he, from a position of clear weakness, have written theoretical works about Stalinism that were more diplomatic? [I'm thinking of Amadeo Bordiga's works on Soviet state capitalism, including the Dialogue with Stalin critique of Stalin's Economic Problems of Socialism in the USSR.]

[Jimmie Higgins]

He would have invented the internet, become a hula-hoop champion, and been a frequent guest on "What's My Line":

"I led the Red Army and survived attempts on my life by Stalinist agents... who am I?"

In other words, who can say? I'd hope that the post-war reality would cause him to reconsider his understanding of the nature of the USSR.

[Devrim]

Would he, from a position of clear weakness, have written theoretical works about Stalinism that were more diplomatic? [I'm thinking of Amadeo Bordiga's works on Soviet state capitalism, including the Dialogue with Stalin critique of Stalin's Economic Problems of Socialism in the USSR.]

I would be quite surprised if you had read Bordiga's 'Dialogue with Stalin'. I don't really see how it can be described as 'diplomatic'.

Devrim

[Devrim]

On the actual question, I think that the crisis of Trotskyism that took place following the Second World War, would have played out quite differently.
Trotsky was proved utterly wrong on his predictions about the war. Would it have forced him to change his analysis? Would he have supported the USSR in WWII? Would he have adopted some theory of state capitalism?

Devrim

[Ohnoatard]

Dont matter, the Revolution failed to spread.

[Revy]

I think the point should be made that Trotsky never claimed to be a seer. He was making predictions based on what he saw at the time, given that the Soviet Union was not part of the Allies at the time. There is no reason to believe that Trotsky could not have revised his prediction.

I am not a Trotskyist but I am not sure it is fair to say that if someone makes a prediction and it is not borne out, then their whole ideology and ideas are discredited.

[Die Neue Zeit]

I think the point should be made that Trotsky never claimed to be a seer. He was making predictions based on what he saw at the time, given that the Soviet Union was not part of the Allies at the time. There is no reason to believe that Trotsky could not have revised his prediction.

I am not a Trotskyist but I am not sure it is fair to say that if someone makes a prediction and it is not borne out, then their whole ideology and ideas are discredited.

I agree. I too am not a Trotskyist, but my main beef with the guy is programmatic.

[F9]

The real and only answer i can give on any question like this , always is, "who knows?".Hypothetical situations cant be answered with one direct way, and basically mostly there isnt a correct or incorrect answer.
What my "thinking" of what would probably happen is that he would continue be critical of Stalin all of his life, and as soon as Stalin was out, one way or another, he would try to get back in USSR to lead again, get the sympathy of the CP, and eventually lead the peoples ideas with him.
This sounds to me the most possible thing that would happen, though my thinking ends with the fact that he would fail to get CP support.

[The Bear]

As we all know, Trotsky made the prediction that either a workers' revolution would correct the "degenerated workers' state" mess in the Soviet Union, or the Soviet Union itself would have been militarily conquered by the Nazis and Western imperialists. Side by side with this prediction was his prediction of the "death agony of capitalism."

The first prediction did not come to pass, and the "death agony of capitalism" was merely the substantial but not total demise of British imperialism.

If Trotsky had survived WWII, would he have suggested entryism into the official, mass Communist parties like Michel Pablo did? Would he have modified his scant remarks on entryism so as to limit entry towards these parties, and not towards social-democratic ones? Would he, from a position of clear weakness, have written theoretical works about Stalinism that were more diplomatic? [I'm thinking of Amadeo Bordiga's works on Soviet state capitalism, including the Dialogue with Stalin critique of Stalin's Economic Problems of Socialism in the USSR.]

we dont know because he didnt survive

[Psy]

The real and only answer i can give on any question like this , always is, "who knows?".Hypothetical situations cant be answered with one direct way, and basically mostly there isnt a correct or incorrect answer.
What my "thinking" of what would probably happen is that he would continue be critical of Stalin all of his life, and as soon as Stalin was out, one way or another, he would try to get back in USSR to lead again, get the sympathy of the CP, and eventually lead the peoples ideas with him.
This sounds to me the most possible thing that would happen, though my thinking ends with the fact that he would fail to get CP support.

Well odds are Trotsky would have amplified the resentment for Stalin in Leningrad following the officers in Leningrad becoming independent from Moscow in their defense of Leningrad and Trotsky might have inspired the officers of Leningrad to break Leningrad away from the USSR.

[Random Precision]

we dont know because he didnt survive

Perhaps the only worthwhile post in this thread. Yes, it's fun and all to speculate, but Trotsky is dead and it's our job to get on without him as best we can. I'm sure he and Lenin would have liked to be able to talk about what they were doing with Marx and Engels, but they did what they did even without their advice.

I seriously do not see the point of threads like this.

[Intelligitimate]

Well, the cult around Trotsky would have been more unified. People like Tony Cliff and and Shachtman would not have been able to deviate from him effectively. At the same time, like Cliff and Shachtman, the true nature of Trotskyism, a relentless anti-communism directed at the USSR, would have become ever more apparent. Trotsky would have probably sided decisively with the West on Korea, which would have further regulated Trotskyism to the sidelines as just an anti-communist ideology. It would perhaps experience a resurgence under Khrushchev, but Vietnam would probably have been the end of it, with Trotsky becoming a full-on shill for US imperialism.

[Led Zeppelin]

And if Stalin had survived longer than he did, he would have eventually declared communism established in the USSR while at the same time implementing capitalism with the aid of US and European imperialism. The people inside the USSR wouldn't have been aware of this because they would still be under the impression that they were living in a communist utopia. By 1984 Orwell's predictions would have become a reality, with Stalin filling in the role of Big Brother, and double-think reigning supreme in the minds of all Soviet people as opposed to only in the minds of Stalinists.

Either that, or I just pulled all of that out of my ass like the poster above.

[Psy]

Well, the cult around Trotsky would have been more unified. People like Tony Cliff and and Shachtman would not have been able to deviate from him effectively. At the same time, like Cliff and Shachtman, the true nature of Trotskyism, a relentless anti-communism directed at the USSR, would have become ever more apparent. Trotsky would have probably sided decisively with the West on Korea, which would have further regulated Trotskyism to the sidelines as just an anti-communist ideology. It would perhaps experience a resurgence under Khrushchev, but Vietnam would probably have been the end of it, with Trotsky becoming a full-on shill for US imperialism.

Trotsky wasn't pro US or British imperialism and he really wasn't anti-USSR either which is why Trotsky called it a deformed workers state rather then state capitalism or something else. Trotsky was mostly a anti-Stalinist as he viewed Stalin as representing the worse of the opportunist bureaucracy he and Lenin fought.

[RebelDog]

And if Stalin had survived longer than he did, he would have eventually declared communism established in the USSR while at the same time implementing capitalism with the aid of US and European imperialism. The people inside the USSR wouldn't have been aware of this because they would still be under the impression that they were living in a communist utopia. By 1984 Orwell's predictions would have become a reality, with Stalin filling in the role of Big Brother, and double-think reigning supreme in the minds of all Soviet people as opposed to only in the minds of Stalinists.

One could suppose, that so long as any given scenario did not involve free-soviets and workers self-mangement, then any scenario is plausible in the USSR.

[Intelligitimate]

Trotsky wasn't pro US or British imperialism and he really wasn't anti-USSR either which is why Trotsky called it a deformed workers state rather then state capitalism or something else. Trotsky was mostly a anti-Stalinist as he viewed Stalin as representing the worse of the opportunist bureaucracy he and Lenin fought.

Trotsky never used the term "deformed workers state." This term was invented to describe the Eastern European countries that become socialist by Trotskyites. The USSR is "degenerated" because it was once good, and then Trotsky left, and it magically became bad. The other countries, being associated with the "degenerated" USSR, were born bad, hence they were "deformed."

Trotsky would do anything to hurt the USSR. Trotsky organized opposition within the country, spewed propaganda in the bourgeois press (which he was paid handsomely for), was willing to pass information to the US government about communists, etc. His unrelenting anti-Stalinism could only drive him into the arms of the bourgeoisie, as it has many Trotskyists. There is no reason to believe whatsoever Trotsky would take a principled stance regarding Eastern Europe, Korea, Vietnam, etc.

[F9]

chit-chat? Chit chat is for non political "offtopic" discussion.Even if the "speculations" probably dont fit in the history forum, i cant see how its not political, so im moving it to Politics.
Moved