Stop micro-managing Nepal
DINKAR NEPAL
When things go out of control in a neighboring country with which you are culturally, historically and geo-politically linked, your diplomats posted to handle the situation there create a mess, the politicians who you believed would listen to you start behaving strangely and the people of that country start hating you; what does the doctor prescribe?
Fly envoys. If that fails, fly special envoys in frenzy. And what’s the news? Sorry doc, it’s got worse.
India is known to be a decisive influence in Nepal’s internal political affairs since the time it is known to be India. The untold promise for the Ranas in the closing years of the British Raj for protection against democratic winds; sheltering of King Tribhuvan and hence the monarchy in 1951; privileges, protection and facilities the political leaders got during the Panchayat era; the 1989-90 economic embargo; or, more recently facilitating of the 12-point agreement are all stark examples of this.
By and large, these efforts have helped positive outcomes for both Nepal and India except for the last time when the calculations went grossly wrong and the Maoists won a majority in the Constituent Assembly elections. And the problems started there.
In all the examples stated above, it was clear to India as to who matters most. The Ranas were the only people who had a say in Nepal at that time, hence there was no dilemma. Later, when the political environment became bad for the Ranas, the king was the best bet.
King Mahendra, clear on his alignments, gave little choice for India but to support the democratic movements and parties. This support continued till 1990 when the multi-party system was established. In 2006, after analyzing the merits and demerits, India helped the political parties unite against the king and created grounds for the Maoists for a soft landing into the mainstream.
But India’s calculation and the ‘democratic’ parties’ confidence was proved drastically wrong by the elections and now, the so-called Nepal experts (read ex-ambassadors, royal relatives and paper pundits) are losing their nerves.
The mother of all the problems for Lainchaur today is: Who should it deal with?
The king is almost ousted from the capital and the political arena. The Madhesis are not in a powerful majority though they are significant in number. The traditional elites or the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML have been made a political minority by the Maoists. And, with the Maoists, they are not very comfortable.
The result is this mess. Micromanagement is exposed. Threatening phone calls by intelligence operatives to legally elected lawmakers make headlines. And what is worse, the threat is over education prospects of the daughter who studies in a school!
The geo-political juxtaposition and economic reality makes it impossible for a government in Kathmandu to be indifferent toward New Delhi. Whatever be the ideological cart that pushes them to power, once the day-to-day nuances of governance, budget, finance and economy starts taking a toll on them; no political party can run away from this reality.
The moment Pushpa Kamal Dahal came to power, the ‘scrapping of the 1950 treaty’ mellowed down to both sides ‘reviewing the relationships with an open mind’. The rhetoric of recruitment of Nepali citizens in foreign army became a ‘sensitive and delicate issue’ that should be consulted with all parties. (When one of the diplomats derisively told me in a brief encounter that Dahal had himself called up the ambassador not to stop the recruitments in Nepal, I was ashamed to the hilt.)
Surprisingly, this realization has not made them confident in the right manner. It’s in the long-term interest of the relationship that India stops reacting in frenzy to each and every event in Nepal. In short, stop micro-managing Nepal.
Recently, an op-ed piece in a national newspaper of India carried an opinion of the sense that the diplomats are not there in Kathmandu to win a beauty contest. This shows that not only the policymakers but also the pundits are neglecting the most important factor in the relationship – the people. It’s high time someone gives a lecture on the importance of soft power and public opinion to the originators of such pontifications.
An image makeover, in the eyes of the public, is what India needs most right now. With what Lainchaur is involved in, it may be able to keep one or the other kind of ruling elites of its liking in the seats of importance. But, till the time the dissention remains in general public against India, some or the other party will emerge to exploit it. India, I believe, needs no lessons on this that creating a common enemy is the best method for political mass mobilization, if it has learnt something from politics of Pakistan and Bangladesh.
So, here are the tips from an insider. Instead of losing their sleep to decide who they should deal with in Nepal, the wise men in Lainchaur should focus on people-centered programs, and let the political powers come to equilibrium on their own, without an external pressure. And be rest assured, whoever emerges stronger on its own, cannot and will not bypass India.
India should focus its power and energy in educating its own citizens about the sensitivities involved while dealing with the citizens of a sovereign neighboring country. Drawing a Laxman Rekha, which should not be crossed at any cost, is in the best interests of all. And till the time this realization hits the rulers in Delhi, no Hanuman can fly to the Himalayas and get a sanjivani for the dying relationship.
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