This analysis is more or less my own, but it definitely draws on things I have been reading and watching over the past week or so surrounding the Irish general election last Friday: First, the results themselves. While at this point (about 6pm in Ireland) the results are still not fully known, the composition of the next Dail can more or less be seen by what's already been called (for full results see here: http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/index.html). Fine Gael will get somewhere in the low-mid 70s in seats, the Labour Party in the high 30s (possibly as many as 40), Fianna Fail at around 20-something, Sinn Fein at 13, a motley assortment of independents at around 12-13, and the United Left Alliance (comprised the Socialist Party [CWI], People Before Profit Alliance and some other left and socialist groups.) The most striking thing for folks who know a bit about Irish political history is that Fianna Fail, which has always been one of the two major parties since its formation in 1926, has now been pushed into third place. This is unprecedented, though perhaps not unsurprising, considering the fairly widespread public anger coming from Fianna Fail's handling of the economic crisis in Ireland. Fianna Fail's coalition partners, the Green Party, were punished even more severely by voters, and will have no seats in the next Dail. So as it currently stands, the next government will be headed by the traditional other major party in Ireland, Fine Gael, though they will not have enough seats in order to govern alone. This is where Irish politics gets somewhat interesting, because for the most part, the political battles in Ireland haven't been fought on "traditional left-right" political divides. Indeed, both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are more or less right-wing parties, though Fianna Fail has varied a bit more in its past and could be seen as more populist than Fine Gael, and as such Fianna Fail has relied on a fairly large base of working-class support. Fine Gael, on the other hand, is seen as a more "Christian Democratic" conservative party. So, while in terms of more traditional politics the two major parties in Ireland actually have more in common than might otherwise be seen at first glance, what sets them apart from each other is that they were originally formed from opposing factions in the Irish Civil War, and since have become collections of political dynasties, patronage machines, and the other various fun things that you would expect from a mainstream bourgeois party. However, because of Fianna Fail's dominance in Irish politics up until this point, the breaking point for government has more or less been "Fianna Fail" and "anti-Fianna Fail," which has led the social-democratic/social-liberal Labour Party to support Fine Gael governments more often than Fianna Fail governments. Again, considering that Fine Gael is more or less to the right of Fianna Fail politically, this may seem as somewhat strange political bedfellows, but due to the peculiarities of Irish politics, along with the subsequent factor of the Labour Party not being as strong as similar parties in other European countries (making it even more opportunistic in my view), makes the situation as it has been for decades. This election may have changed that, however. While the losses sustained by Fianna Fail have mostly benefited Fine Gael, the Labour Party almost doubled its number of seats (making it the best result ever for them), and parties to the left of Labour, including Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance have also made significant gains. Sinn Fein, which in the Republic of Ireland functions more as a "democratic socialist" party than as an Irish republican party (though the two are connected and they're more or less sell-outs on both issues anyway ;D), basically tripled its performance from 2007, going from 4 to 13 seats declared so far, with the possibility of one more still in the count. And as I mentioned, the United Left Alliance gained 5 seats in the Dail, whereas there was no sort of socialist representation in the Dail from 2007-2011. That said, two of the candidates elected (Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party and Seamus Healey of the Workers and Unemployed Action Group) were former members of the Dail, and all of the ULA candidates elected are also local councillors, with the exception of Joe Higgins who is a member of the European Parliament (though will be resigning that seat to take up his seat in the Dail.) In four other constituencies, ULA candidates got over 5% of the vote, meaning that a good base is there, if not necessarily enough to translate to a TD. The important thing about this, though, is that the ULA is positioning itself as the most consistent opposition force to ALL of the proposed cuts of all the potential government options. While their platform does unfortunately stop short at actually calling for socialism as an alternative, the fact that they're aiming at building a meaningful opposition, rather than trying to get into government. Considering they, at this stage, only enjoy the support of a minority of the population, trying to form a government would mean having to administer against the working class. Of course, this election was only a snapshot in the struggle against austerity in Ireland. What matters now is the movement that can be built against the policies a Fine Gael-led government will undoubtedly trot out in the name of "shared sacrifice," and the groups that make up the ULA (which may try and form into a coherent political party in the near future) seem to intend on taking a leading role in building that movement. Despite my personal criticisms of their politics, I wish them the best in that struggle.
Re. Sinn Fein and ULA: Is it me, or is Sinn Fein's politics like the right-wing of Die Linke (coalitionism) and the ULA's politics like the left-wing or at least "Lafontaine"-ist?
Re. Sinn Fein and ULA: Is it me, or is Sinn Fein's politics like the right-wing of Die Linke (coalitionism) and the ULA's politics like the left-wing or at least "Lafontaine"-ist? I think it's you insofar that you have a fetish for Die Linke, so tend to see everything through that lens That said, I do think you have a point. Sinn Fein and the ULA will be the left opposition within the next Dail, but Sinn Fein has talked about wanting to form a left-wing government, whereas the ULA directly places itself as an oppositional force.
