I thought I would post this in the Trot forum because this is my perspective. What are the chances that someone in their mid-20s (I am somewhat older) will live to "see socialism" ? I mean of course worker's democracy; the working class globally taking control of the means of production and finally liberating humanity from the control of capital. The Marxist schema-primitive communism-feudalism-capitalism-socialism (I know a rough approximation) isn't inevitable. The alternative to capitalism isn't necessarily socialism, it could be a more barbaric form of capitalism. How will this take place (if it happens at all)? My guess is that there will be decades-between 40 and 70 years, of sometimes complex struggle. The process has started already-worker's resistance developing in Europe. If Syriaza gets their act together, a system of worker's councils seizing power in Greece, or anyplace else, would create shock waves around the world. I would be interested in people's thoughts on this.
The revolutionary generation is supposed to educate and raise the revolutionary youth once they've taken over the means of doing so. This way, the old ones prepare the final revolution, while the young ones finish it. It might come tomorrow, or in 10 years, or only after we're all lying under the ground -- it doesn't matter, what matters is that we must always stick to our struggle.
I've been an activist on the left since Nixon was in the white house- I was 15. I guess the point is that; if you see the necessity and possibility of a socialist world-- then you have to fight for it. Join an organization that most approximates what you agree with and work to build it. Build the popular movements and apply the transitional method to your work. I may well be worm food before the revolution comes, but I'm trying my best to recruit and train a new generation. When I was younger, I met a bunch of old reds from the 30s/40s. They were still active and very happy. Getting old doesn't have to make you into a reactionary or make you miserable. The other side of things is that consciousness and material reality can turn on a dime. 3 years from now we could be building workers councils and preparing to overturn the system. Keep the faith and keep a positive attitude- and fight like hell for the living.
My prediction of how the masses will be radicalized and why it is vital that revolution happen in a western country to be internationally successful, especially in the United States.: As I said on the thread about China, the USA is, I believe, on its way out as a world superpower. Our economy has pit fallen and has only been saved enough to put the wealthy back on their feet. It will be a slow process but in a matter of decades the US will not be the most economically successful or even militarily powerful nation in the world. China will far surpass us soon, and there will be no Cold War like between the US and USSR. China owns far too much of us and we will be at their economic beck and call. In the past decade, standard of living has dropped 10% for all but the bourgeoisie. The "ideal" American lifestyle that the capitalist media loves to perpetuate is based on a period of time that only lasted about half of the 1990s when the DotCom boom was in full swing. I believe that the DotCom boom was the very pinnacle of capitalist American success, sort of our Pax Romana if you will, that we will never see again as long as the capitalist class is in control. I doub't that we will recover much in the same way that the US did after the Great Depression. The economy will get back to a point where it is running, but only just, and we will be far surpassed by the new superpowers of the 21st century. As people's living standards fall, the people of the US will be particularly angry, especially since the masses of this country would loathe the idea of not being the priviledged nation. A combination of jealousy of other superpowers and discontent with the traditional American economic system will make the masses ripe for radicalization. The government beauracracy will increase greatly. I doubt that it will reach a level of absolute dictatorship, but the slow humdrum of congressional decsions on legslation will only get slower and slower and the people will have absolutely no respect for the established bourgeois representatives. Thats what I thnk will happen that will prepare the masses for revoluton.
Thanks for the encouragement. I would be a socialist even if I knew the revolution would not occur for 100, 200, or even 500 years. Socialism overall is the most important method of human liberation. Coming from my own intense alienation from capitalist society it would be gratifying to know I would be able to live in the future liberated civilization, but if not, that's okay too. It gives me meaning knowing I am working for the future. I agree that the revolution must be based in the industrialized world (although it may be up to debate where that is exactly, these days). I'm reading "Limits To Capital" by David Harvey. The overabundance of capital (if that's the correct term), desperately seeking a return, is fueling the crisis. A friend of mine recently said that whoever is president in 20 years, of whatever party, will have to be very mean in order to extract adequate surplus value from the working class. The last several high points of revolutionary class struggle were crushed and/or subverted.Post WWI-a partial victory in Russia.1930s-subversion, distortion by Stalinism. 1960s-70s; France '68, Portugal early 70s, other places, destruction by US imperialism, again subversion by Stalinism and "socialists". We may be entering the next wave.There are constraints which didn't exist before-global warming, etc. Red Philly is right.Historical change can occur very rapidly, after long periods of not much seemingly happening.Lenin (I think it was him) said "There will be periods of 30 years which will pass with the seeming importance of a single day, and single days with the importance of 30 years.” I will read the China thread.
Lenina Rosenweg Lenin (I think it was him) said "There will be periods of 30 years which will pass with the seeming importance of a single day, and single days with the importance of 30 years.” Close comrade Great quote BTW There are decades when nothing happens, but there are weeks when decades happen. -V.I. Lenin
