Notes on the international situation

  1. blake 3:17
    blake 3:17
    Anyone want to discuss this document? It's in 4 parts -- we could go through the four...



    Notes on the international situation


    Taking the measure of the crisis (3)
    François Sabado
    This report was presented to the Executive Bureau of the Fourth International for discussion at its session of October 17, 2009, with a view to debate at the 16th World Congress of the Fourth International. It represents a continuation of the report on the international situation presented to the meeting International Committee in February 2009 already published in International Viewpoint under the title “The crisis overdetermines all of world politics”.

    http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1756
  2. redphilly
    redphilly
    Good idea. I printed it out and will make some notes.
  3. blake 3:17
    blake 3:17
    I've read fairly carefully through part 1 -- it seems basically sound. There may be errors regarding particular economic forecasts, but that's to be expected.

    Part 1's political conclusions are that Keynesian solutions are really not on offer, that the dominant classes reject them, while they do support other forms of state intervention in the economy to keep the tiny bubble from bursting. Green capitalism is rejected throughly.

    It concludes that capitalism is both unbearable and flexible enough to maintain itself, UNLESS there are social forces willing to change it fundamentally.

    I'd agree with the overall analysis and would really only query the details. It's a recap of basically what the FI and most of the Marxist Left has been saying for some time.

    Pt. 2 is more controversial -- it gets into what role the US, China, the Middle East, Brazil are playing and will play. 2.2 claims Brazil as an imperialist power. ?????????? Really???
  4. blake 3:17
    blake 3:17
    I didn't mention a key dimension of 1.4 in my overbrief summary. Sabado makes some really important points about rising unemployment and its gendered natured. Women are more likely to face lay offs in the face of the current employers offensive. In Canada, the work force is profoundly gendered, but maternity, parental, and care giving leave are provided legally for many workers who have regular full time work. It's not even but what's there is there, at least for the moment. Some European countries do the same or better. In the US, it is a fair bit worse. This is a terrible problem in terms of class stratification and gender equity.
  5. Q
    Q
    2.2 claims Brazil as an imperialist power. ?????????? Really???
    Fundamentally all capitalist states act like giant firms, competing with other states for hegemony within the state system. In that basic sense all capitalist states have imperialist features. Brazil however can certainly be classified as a local power with the Latin-American context, with its multinationals having big stakes in for example the gasfields in Bolivia.

    I don't know if that is the basic reasoning in the document, but I don't see it as controversial.
  6. redphilly
    redphilly
    Re Brazil, I don't see a controversy in referring to Brazil as imperialist. The document makes reference to the concept of "sub-imperialism." (An imperialism with a subordinate position to a more powerful imperialist power of powers.)

    Certainly, Brazil's role in Haiti has been almost unversally ignored. As the occupying power, Brazil has been criticized for brutal mistreatment of the Haitain people and for attacks on the popular movement - all under the guise of a so-called "humanitarian" intervention. There's no such thing. I know that some left forces supported, for instance, the sending of UN (mostly Australian) troops to East Timor to "protect" the Timorese.

    Insofar as the economic analysis in the document, I think it's pretty sound and firmly based on an understanding of this as a crisis of the falling rate of profit.

    What I would add, perhaps, is that there seems to be a fundamentla shift in the world situation that we can't ignore: 1. the addition of hundreds of millions of workers to the world workforce in the former workers states as capitalism was restored and these workers were opened to exploitation by the bourgeoisie. and 2. the changes in technology that make the global system of manufacturing and exchange more interpenetrated.

    This translates into workers in all countries being more /directly/ in competition with each other over jobs and wages than ever before -- the so-called race to the bottom.

    What this means for us is the necessity of building an international worthy of the name is more clear than ever, IMO.

    Another thing to consider is the depth of this crisis. I think the document is correct on this. What I might add is on the role of China and its relatiojnship with the US. The amount of US debt held by China is astronomical. China can't afford for the US to fail, but on the other hand is more and more in competition with the US. The debt could be a huge factor in the future. Will the Chinese demand payment in full? One possibility is they would demand shares in US corporations.

    The US is keeping itself afloat by printing money - a situation that long term will further weaken the position of US imperialism. Being mired in two wars, deep in debt and with a manufacturing base that's been weakened by offshoring of jobs can only mean (IMO) the potential end of US military hegemony.

    In part I think this is the point of the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- as much as oil and resources - to contain two regional rivals; China and Russia.

    I'll have more to say re the organizational tasks facing our movement later - I have to go for a paper sale.
  7. blake 3:17
    blake 3:17
    I'm still confused by the description of Brazil as imperialist. Thanks, rp, for the reference to Brazil in Haiti. I was unaware of it.

    From section 1.5:
    • Beyond this projects of "green capitalism" have a dual dimension: firstly, to have the ecological invoice - or the public deficits built up under the cover of "green taxes" – paid for by the popular classes by a system of taxes that bypasses the responsibilities of big companies while establishing new markets, in particular markets in rights to pollute. More substantially, the solution to the ecological crisis cannot be found within a capitalist framework. The profit motive can only lead to competition of each capital against the other. Any coordinated medium-and long-term action is faced comes up against the logic of the market. Energy efficiency does not require only a decrease in the consumption of energy, the reconversion of a series of industries, the substitution of fossil fuels by renewable fuels but a reorganization of the productive apparatus, a reorganization that can be done only by coordination and planning, thus in a system of public and social ownership and not in the context of private ownership of the main sectors of the economy.
    Interesting and seemingly right. Following Canada's role in Copenhagen, it's really interesting to see governmental/class fractions emerge. Ontario and Quebec governments are really worried about the effect of sanctions that may result from the federal government's anti-environmentalism. Anyways...

    Re: 2.2 A reference is made to China using migrant labour. I'd understand that to be internal migration. Does China import labour?

    From 2.3:
    Also, the demands for withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan are elementary to respecting the rights of peoples and to strategically weaken the imperialist powers. It is also in the sense that we defend more than ever, in particular after the events in Gaza, the rights of the Palestinian people.

    Exactly. And perhaps there is where our enemies see us correctly -- not just working for "peace" but for a just peace. The author calls for support for the BDS campaign (yes!)

    Re: 2.4 The basic analytical scheme on Latin America seems right. A powerful, imaginative, emancipatory Left has emerged. The MAS are certainly the most exciting. The whole thing is really determined by Venezuela and Cuba. The diagnosis of social liberalism (re:Brazil, Argentina, Nicaragua, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile) seems right. I think the Latin American comrades are most concerned about attack by the rightist countries and the internal threats of fascist counter revolt.

    Re: 2.5 What do people think? I have fairly particular thoughts on Europe and the EU --
    They have chosen globalisation, but in this process, they have no common insertion as "European capitalism". On the contrary it is the interlinked interests between this national economy and that multinational that determine the basic guidelines. Global competition can thus magnify inter-European competition.
    This seems intuitively right. What dynamics do others see playing out here? War? Trade wars? What is the correct strategy for meeting neo-fascism, right populism and racism?