Coming US economic collapse our next chance for revloution?

[Cory]

Recently the Trends Institute predicted that by 2012 there will be widespread foosd shortages, riots, and general collapse in the USA.

Do you comrades here think that maybe this could be our shot at implementing revloution? Perhaps we could form people's militias and begin taking control of the means of production for the workers.

I'm pretty sure that if this did happen there would likley be a Spanish civil-war type scenario, but I'm sure that history is on our side. I really hope that the current economic crises is just the beggining of a series of events that will eventually lead to the collapse of capitalism and maybe, just maybe, the formation of a communist revloutionary state.

:hammersickle: :thumbup: :hammersickle:

[Woland]

You can't make estimates or guesses with things like a revolution. As it is said, even Lenin didnt believe that a revolution would happen in his lifetime. And when it did happen, he only expected to last as long as the paris commune. There are some things which can be examined and there are always some signs, but then, no. The Greek riots (not calling them a revolution) came pretty suddenly too, there were some signs of public dissapointment, but then, it was a surprise for many. I guess many people would like for your scenario to come to be, but we don't know. But still, never say never :3

[( R )evolution]

While the level of class consciousness may be low now, that does not mean it will stay at this level. With the looming economic collapse, more and more workers will begin to get mad at the system and will listen and gain class consciousness through the words of of a better system; communism.

[manic expression]

You can't make estimates or guesses with things like a revolution. As it is said, even Lenin didnt believe that a revolution would happen in his lifetime. And when it did happen, he only expected to last as long as the paris commune. There are some things which can be examined and there are always some signs, but then, no. The Greek riots (not calling them a revolution) came pretty suddenly too, there were some signs of public dissapointment, but then, it was a surprise for many. I guess many people would like for your scenario to come to be, but we don't know. But still, never say never :3

You can make educated guesses; Marx did it all the time. The point is that you can never be sure, so I definitely agree with you for the most part.

At any rate, I think there is quite an opportunity for the socialist movement in the US. In addition, the factory occupation in Chicago, as well as the support it's received, gives me a great deal of encouragement. It's up to us, we can make our history.

[Woland]

You can make educated guesses; Marx did it all the time. The point is that you can never be sure, so I definitely agree with you for the most part.

At any rate, I think there is quite an opportunity for the socialist movement in the US. In addition, the factory occupation in Chicago, as well as the support it's received, gives me a great deal of encouragement. It's up to us, we can make our history.

Yes, but Marx also had a helluva hard time even inspiring worker revolts and gaining supporters, even with all of his magnificent theory. Ofcourse, with time and careful examination, I think almost all revolutions are forseeable, and Marx certainly did that. And even if they are forseeable, you never know what will spark it off or when this spark will happen, hence the surprise. So for one part, its very much forseeable, but then, you never know when.

My biggest issue for socialism in the USA is the general hate of communism and socialism in this country. After so much propaganda and praise for capitalism, I doubt the revolution will be socialist, but more like a ''neopatriotic'' revolution. Ofcourse realpolitik(?) of the working class might kick in, but public support will be difficult to concentrate. It is a very divided country in my opinion. And oh yeah- the time of the last great depression, fascism had the upper hand over communism.

[Incendiarism]

Nonetheless, it'll be interesting.

[BlackCapital]

I agree with most of the above. I think rioting and mass protests are inevitable, but will anything useful come of it? Will there be a consensus for socialism? I'd love to think so, but the reality is most people I know, which tend to be decently educated and intelligent people, just don't know very much about socialism/communism. Not to mention the massive amount of stigma the general population has about it.

It is absolutely crucial to expose capitalism for there to be any chance of this. We have the highest levels of disillusionment with our system in a while (probably beginning to rival the 60's), although it seems alot of these people are leaning towards the Ron Paul side of things. I don't think thats a bad sign though, they're interested in something that is different, albeit still capitalism. Why do they support him though? Mainly because of his anti-war/imperialism stance, ending the drug war, anti-federal reserve, and so on. I don't hear alot of people, at least young people (who make up the vast majority of his supporters), vigorously endorsing his economic policies. They're just grabbing at the nearest thing they see, I think many of them would support socialism if they only knew.

[Woland]

^ Right on that. It is absolutely astonishing how few people really know about socialism and how many of them misinterpret and demonize it.

This is a great chance to get our word across- People hate the government, they hate their system, they might just listen. As with Ron Paul, that was what I mean by ''neopatriotism''- going back to the constitution, rights, etc. Its not socialist, but with some pressure and work, we can influence some things if it comes to that.

[Psy]

You can make educated guesses; Marx did it all the time. The point is that you can never be sure, so I definitely agree with you for the most part.

At any rate, I think there is quite an opportunity for the socialist movement in the US. In addition, the factory occupation in Chicago, as well as the support it's received, gives me a great deal of encouragement. It's up to us, we can make our history.
Right, it is clear that the capitalist class can't go back to the previous arrangement so we are probably going to see a flaring up of class struggles.

[Killfacer]

Yes it will be interesting, but you talk about it as though no one will suffer. Seems slightly odd to me that so called socialists look forward to a time when everyone will suffer poverty in the hope that they might be able to have a revolution.

[Prisoner#69]

This is an interesting thread. Of course any prediction is based upon this Trends Institute study. How reliable is it?

[Prisoner#69]

Yes it will be interesting, but you talk about it as though no one will suffer. Seems slightly odd to me that so called socialists look forward to a time when everyone will suffer poverty in the hope that they might be able to have a revolution.

Most of the world is already suffering in poverty. Sometimes things need to become much worse before they get better.

[ckaihatsu]

And even if they are forseeable, you never know what will spark it off or when this spark will happen, hence the surprise. So for one part, its very much forseeable, but then, you never know when.


Labor revolts have happened when the working class was under duress, as in the Great Depression, and also when the U.S. imperialism was making tremendously large profits from war production in WWII. I don't think there's much in-between -- either conditions for capital have to be exceptionally bad, or exceptionally good.



^ Right on that. It is absolutely astonishing how few people really know about socialism and how many of them misinterpret and demonize it.

This is a great chance to get our word across- People hate the government, they hate their system, they might just listen. As with Ron Paul, that was what I mean by ''neopatriotism''- going back to the constitution, rights, etc. Its not socialist, but with some pressure and work, we can influence some things if it comes to that.


I think you could term the knee-jerk support for Ron Paul as a symptom of convenience. If you can't find Coke or Pepsi in the vending machine you look for the next-closest match, like some other kind of cola. People, in their consumerist conditioning, act exactly the same way in politics, and look for something *similar* to what they're used to doing, as an alternative to disgust with the status quo.

You might say that we're lacking in the marketing department. Sure, there are socialist candidates who run for public offices, but they don't consciously go after the Ron Paul demographic of the population. I don't quite know how the majority of people come around leftist politics, but it's probably from having a humanistic, social-justice kind of inclination to begin with, not a concern-for-the-homeland, nationalistic orientation.



My biggest issue for socialism in the USA is the general hate of communism and socialism in this country. After so much propaganda and praise for capitalism, I doubt the revolution will be socialist, but more like a ''neopatriotic'' revolution. Ofcourse realpolitik(?) of the working class might kick in, but public support will be difficult to concentrate. It is a very divided country in my opinion. And oh yeah- the time of the last great depression, fascism had the upper hand over communism.


I think that we're sometimes fighting the wrong battles in this regard. If people have an abhorrence for totalitarian, autocratic rule -- * good *! I would agree with them in a heartbeat, no matter who they are, and not try to dive into a defense of the intricacies of Stalinism versus degenerated workers' states.

Obviously when people profess hatred for "communism" and "socialism" they have * Stalinism * in mind, and rightly so. We happen to *agree* with those anti-autocratic sentiments, if you'll remember, and we should build common political ground on that.

Maybe lead into the question of who *should* control mass industrial production, since that's what's at stake -- that's human society's latest and greatest technology, so ownership and use of it is of paramount importance.


Chris




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-- Of all the Marxists in a roomful of people, I'm the Wilde-ist. --

[Psy]

Most of the world is already suffering in poverty. Sometimes things need to become much worse before they get better.

The difference is significant chunks of the US working class has been bought off for decades through cheap credit, the US had a facade of capitalism working for the working class, now that facade has crumbled and workers can no longer maintain their previous levels of consumption which actually is bad news for capitalists as they now have a huge problem realizing the value of commodities into money.


We are not just witnessing a fall in the rate of profits we are seeing the complete collapse of the rate of profits, that means this crisis will flame class struggle.

[La Comédie Noire]

You can make educated guesses; Marx did it all the time.


Bear in mind a lot of his educated guesses turned out to be wrong. He thought the cotton crisis in England was going to be the big one.



We are not just witnessing a fall in the rate of profits we are seeing the complete collapse of the rate of profits, that means this crisis will flame class struggle.


Too true! Not only are we seeing a crisis in capital, but we are seeing a complete faliure in the capitalist system to function. This falling rate of profit has been occuring since the 70's! If anything the current economic crisis has revealed a deeply flawed system.

Workers expect a lot more from their ruling classes then they did 80 years ago. The drop in living standards economists project will simply be intolerable for the working classes of the first world.

But once again we have to keep in mind we could be very wrong.

[Wild_Fire]

Some economists here in New Zealand are saying that the crisis will be over in approx 18 months. This may be true but what damage will be left after its departure is anyones guess.:confused:

Many businesses here in New Zealand involved in transport and retail, are already shutting up shop. We are a capitalist country, but we are quite sheltered from the effects going on in the world around us. If we are having a bad time, the rest of the world must surely be suffocating from the choke-hold of this crisis.:(

This can be one of the most important opportunities for us on the left to get our stuff out there and fight for something a whole lot better!:D

[ckaihatsu]

Bear in mind a lot of his educated guesses turned out to be wrong. He thought the cotton crisis in England was going to be the big one.


The industrializing countries resolved their 19th century economic crises by expanding outward and colonizing new markets. Britain's stagnation opened the way for newer industrializing countries, like that of the U.S., France, Austro-Hungary, Italy, Germany, Russia, and others to emerge on the world stage, seeking new territory.



Some economists here in New Zealand are saying that the crisis will be over in approx 18 months. This may be true but what damage will be left after its departure is anyones guess.:confused:


They * wish * that the crisis will be over in 18 months. They're ignoring the solvency crisis, which is a crisis of valuation due to massive, systemic overhangs of bad credit (hyper-extended loans), with gutted wages -- no new markets -- and plummeting growth rates.



Many businesses here in New Zealand involved in transport and retail, are already shutting up shop. We are a capitalist country, but we are quite sheltered from the effects going on in the world around us. If we are having a bad time, the rest of the world must surely be suffocating from the choke-hold of this crisis.:(


I'd like to politely say that you're both noticing and missing reality here -- New Zealand is *not* insulated from the world market, any more than other boutique economies are. This is because finance is, and has been, global for decades now. No country can provide capital goods as cheaply on its own as well as the world market for capital can -- consider Japan's carry trade, for example.



New Zealand economy lurches sharply into reverse

By John Braddock
4 July 2008

Economic data released in recent weeks confirms that the New Zealand economy swung rapidly into reverse during the opening months of the year. Gross Domestic Product shrank 0.3 percent in the March quarter, with economists predicting another fall of at least 0.5 percent for the June quarter. This would mean the country is officially in recession.

Agriculture and construction were the main contributors to the decline. Primary industry, which accounts for over 50 percent of New Zealand’s export trade, recorded its largest quarterly decline in a decade—down 4.1 percent—despite booming returns in dairy farming. A 5.2 percent fall in construction and 1.2 percent fall in manufacturing were responsible for a total 1.9 percent decline in the goods producing sector—the largest fall since June 2000.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/jul2008/newz-j04.shtml



Not only are we seeing a crisis in capital, but we are seeing a complete faliure in the capitalist system to function. This falling rate of profit has been occuring since the 70's! If anything the current economic crisis has revealed a deeply flawed system.


I just don't see any "release valve" this time around. The entire world, including previous holdouts like China and Russia, has been swept into the market system. The formerly privileged sections of the nationalist middle management have all been proletarianized. The manufacturing infrastructure of the advanced industrialized countries has been sold off for scrap while China has taken up the slack of world production by instituting near-slavery conditions for its labor, including high turnover. Finance capital has become massively overextended while real wages have been drying up, making a mockery of the credit system, and now resulting in a downturn in consumer spending.



Workers expect a lot more from their ruling classes then they did 80 years ago. The drop in living standards economists project will simply be intolerable for the working classes of the first world.


The deciding factor is going to be whether there's some x-factor we've overlooked -- in Marx's time it was the colonization of new markets (as far as I can see). In the present period are we overlooking some escape hatch that the capitalists have as the capitalist system goes into rigor mortis and uselessness?

Perhaps First World consumers may surprise us and acquiesce to far lower standards of living than we would normally expect. This doesn't, however, deal with the solvency crisis itself, or the question of how the means of mass production are used.



But once again we have to keep in mind we could be very wrong.


I'm a little puzzled by your entertaining of a direct contradiction to the solid case you've just laid out, Comrade Floyd. If there's something we're missing I think it'd be better to find it and consider it rather than just throwing up our hands and invoking the "Human beings make mistakes" excuse.



This can be one of the most important opportunities for us on the left to get our stuff out there and fight for something a whole lot better!:D


Agreed!

[Killfacer]

Most of the world is already suffering in poverty. Sometimes things need to become much worse before they get better.

You may be correct but looking on in glee as people's lives are ruined seems in poor taste.

[AtteroDominatus]

Well, Kill, people tend to justify the means when looking at the ends. Many people could end up dying in riots, and against or for them, but communists and anarchists would like to overlook the fact because it's a step towards their goal. In that affect, they're dying for the greater good of all people.

A lot of the world, as said, is already suffering. Yet, it's only pulled to attention when a bigger place, like the United States, is also suffering. there has been poverty in many other places for years, like in Africa and major parts of China. But the wolrd paid it no mind. now that things can be seen in the States, people are becoming very worried, since NOW they see that everywhere else is doing bad, too. the US is used to being stable recently, no matter what (the current older generation being born when economy started to do better) and now that things seem to be crumbling, people are reminded of the Depression. So, I do suspect panic will cause straikes, riots, and general violence and theft in the upcoming months.

[La Comédie Noire]

I'm a little puzzled by your entertaining of a direct contradiction to the solid case you've just laid out, Comrade Floyd. If there's something we're missing I think it'd be better to find it and consider it rather than just throwing up our hands and invoking the "Human beings make mistakes" excuse.

True.


The deciding factor is going to be whether there's some x-factor we've overlooked -- in Marx's time it was the colonization of new markets (as far as I can see). In the present period are we overlooking some escape hatch that the capitalists have as the capitalist system goes into rigor mortis and uselessness?


Well I don't know about first world nations such as Britain and the United States, but nations that produce large amounts of real value, such as India and China may end up still standing in the midst of the rubble.


Perhaps First World consumers may surprise us and acquiesce to far lower standards of living than we would normally expect. This doesn't, however, deal with the solvency crisis itself, or the question of how the means of mass production are used.


As of late I've heard many people expressing the wish to start building industry at home again, especially working people. Of course it's an action the ruling class will never take for obvious reasons.

I know it sounds far fetched, but if it becomes a big enough demand and the ruling class shows an indifference and even an inability to carry it out the working class may decide to do it for themselves. The greed and incompetence of the ruling class will be laid bare for all to see.

[Psy]

Perhaps First World consumers may surprise us and acquiesce to far lower standards of living than we would normally expect. This doesn't, however, deal with the solvency crisis itself, or the question of how the means of mass production are used.

There is still going to be a huge problem of overproduction, remeber manufactures planned production leading up to the crisis yet still prior to the crisis, warehouses are having to get creative in finding storage space for unsold commodities which is not a good sign, espcially since if they are not sold by Christmas many commodities will lose a huge portion of their value.

[ckaihatsu]

As of late I've heard many people expressing the wish to start building industry at home again, especially working people. Of course it's an action the ruling class will never take for obvious reasons.


Yeah, this direction has come to mind -- the U.S. has had its periods of "isolationism", meaning that the country is large enough, populated, and resource-rich-enough to be self-sufficient and not get pulled into world conflicts if it doesn't want to. Unfortunately even if the people have this sentiment the presidents don't, and they wind up becoming players on the world stage, in the world capitalist game.

Economic retrenchment could happen just fine in India, China, and pretty much anywhere else that's large enough and industrialized. However, once again, it lets the ruling class off the hook, because if there's national industry then shouldn't the *workers* of that nation be in control of it, and then shouldn't the workers be in cooperation trans-nationally?

[Bronsky]

I would say the situation can easily become a revolutionary situation within a very short time. Revolutions are created when the pressure on the existing order is so great it can only retain power through direct and severe repression.

More than anytime in history the battle between labour and capital is clear. The conflict between the classes outlined by Marx and Engels in their analysis of the state remains sound and true. The conflict will not end until one or other gains the upper hand. For the working class the necessity for a true revolutionary leadership is paramount. This entails breaking free from the old leadership of the past who as they have always done will stand beside the capitalist state when they are called upon to betray the working class. At this point where do the masses turn?

There has been an enormous shift in the structure of the leadership of the workers movements around the globe since the break up of the Soviet Union and the disintegration of the Stalinist parties especially in Europe. The Communist Parties no longer hold sway over the advanced masses, the Trotskyist movement some say has been blighted by division and splits, yet it is this very reason that they will come forward stronger than before. Alongside the demand to read Marx, Lenin and Trotsky are also being read and studied by hundreds of thousands of youth for the first time. A clear understanding of not only the history of the labour movement, but the theory of revolution, is the order of the day. Who better to educate them than the leadership of the only real socialist revolution in history.


Young workers and students are not shackled by the treachery of Stalinism as in the past, the recent flirtation with anarchism will diminish once the desire for real and constructive answers to the mounting pressures become a matter of life or death. The future of the masses will not be held in the hands of middle class radicals wearing Che berets, their future will be decided clearly and decisively through their own organisations built out of the objective conditions, with a revolutionary party at its centre.

Marxism isn’t about being soothsayers, of clairvoyants, it is about being able to understand the movement of forces at every twist and turn within a revolutionary situation. It is about having clear and real policies to put forward to the masses, even if at the time they may well appear to be over the heads of the majority. The watchword of the Bolsheviks was to tell the masses the truth. The starting point within the coming revolutionary period will be to educate the working class to understand there can be no compromise with capital or its agents within the working class, it will become clear this fight will be a fight to the death for capitalism. A revolutionary party will explain there is an alternative to the greed and poverty they will experience, it is a socialist system based on equality, once they grasp this simple message the old myths and lies surrounding socialism and communism will fall away