世界经济大破裂的前兆

[sunfarstar]

保尔森的一揽子方案

雷曼兄弟公司和美林证券危机爆发和短期货币市场失灵（尽管由联邦储备委员会和其他中央银行持续，大规模注入 流动资金）后，保尔森被迫宣布（ 9月18日）一揽子拯救计划，即TARP。没有提供任何细节，保尔森建议花费7,000亿美元纳税人的钱建 立一个仍然在金融机构名册上的卖不掉的不良证券的垃圾箱。

据报道5000亿美元的损失已被注销，但有人估计来自住房市场的剩余证券更多达1万亿美元。随着保尔森的声 明，全球股市交易立即恢复。然而，国会领导人，无论民主党和共和党几乎立即开始抗议保尔森的救援计划之泛泛 的性质和他作为一个财政部长的特别权力。

保尔森建议应给予财政部长（最初为两年）根据他的判断力以任何价格从任何人那里购买证券的无限的权力。此外 ，他还要求免受法院或政府行政机构的任何形式的起诉。起初，他提议只购买美国银行的证券，但很快扩大到包括 外国银行的美国子公司。

如果美国国会接受这个建议，保尔森将是美国历史上最强大的财政部长。《新闻周刊》 》（Newsweek）的封面上称他为“国王亨利”。实际上，财政部长将成为美国资本主义的没有监督（仅仅 是每年向国会报告两次）的经济主管人员，可以和总统本身的权力相匹敌。

如同布什9 / 11事件后一样，在伯南克支持下，保尔森正试图以全球金融崩溃的威胁来促使国会在没有彻底讨论其内容的情况 下迅速批准他的建议。举例来说保尔森要求这一揽子方案应该是“干净利落”的，也就是说它不应该受制于任何建 议，如政府获得股份以换取购买不良债务，或限制银行家的薪酬，或屋主免于面对丧失抵押品赎回权。热衷于挽救 破产的银行家，保尔森残酷地拒绝购房人士的合法权益。

保尔森提议支付大约接近不良证券的票面价值，以美元计超过60美分，而不是其20或30美分的当前市场价值 。此外，不同的银行，金融公司和其他公司正在游说以便扩大救援的范围。举例来说，要求把市政债券，信用卡债 务和汽车购买债务包括进来。华尔街的公司已经期待从执行保尔森方案的业务中收费。

那么，金融公司的负责人对保尔森的建议很热心就不足为奇了。然而，一些自由市场主义的共和党强烈谴责该计划 为“债务社会化”。 来自肯塔基州的共和党参议员吉姆•邦宁（Jim Bunning）宣称： “在美国，适合于所有意图和目的的自由市场死了。”他说，保尔森的计划将“把华尔街的痛苦带给纳税人... 它是金融社会主义，它是非美国式的” 。
另一方面，民主党领袖要求采取措施帮助痛苦的业主。保尔森拒绝了这一要求，其理由是这批不良证券过于复杂以 至于不能减少个体业主的付款额。 “银行和证券业... 正极其所能地和变化战斗，正如他们提出住房法案（7月份通过的）时所做的” （9月24日《国际先驱论坛报》）。

保尔森目前的建议完全不同于20世纪90年代初挽救储蓄和贷款银行（thrifts[储蓄机构]）时采取的措施。当时，美国政府有效地国有化了经营失败的储蓄机构，并在把储蓄机构返回给私人所有之前的一 段时期里出售了其剩余资产。1994年后强劲的经济增长恢复了抵押资产的价值，并使得政府可以收回部分救援 的成本。

在1991-92年房地产泡沫破裂后瑞典政府采取了类似的措施。政府国有化了瑞典银行部门的一大部分，削减了这些经营失 败的机构的股东，随后再次出售了所有可以售出的资产，后来，银行回到了私营部门。可是，救援成本约达瑞典的 国内生产总值（虽然随着时间的推移捞回来了一些成本）的4 ％ 。毫无疑问美国资产阶级将坚决抵制大规模国有化美国银行业。

目前保尔森的救援建议，耗资约7,000亿美元，相当于GDP的5 ％ 。然而，保尔森无意接管经营失败的美国银行，只是通过全买他们的不良债务使他们脱困，从而使它们能够补充其 资本和像往常一样运行下去。保尔森甚至不要求购买其坏帐以换取获得银行股份。
保尔森的一揽子方案会得到国会的批准吗？鉴于国会反对的力量，有可能会有一些拖延以及保尔森可能会被迫接受 一些修改，特别是他所主张的超常的不受制止的权力。但是，面临着金融市场进一步下跌的威胁和新的社会动乱的 可能性，看来国会将在因11月的选举而分崩离析前以这种或那种的形式接受这一揽子方案。

社会主义选择

保尔森声称，人们不在乎谁拥有银行。但数以百万计的房屋拥有者会在乎政府使用纳税人的金钱来帮助出售抵押贷 款和使贷款证券化的银行摆脱困境，而数百万人面临违约利率和丧失抵押品赎回权的威胁。事实上，数以百万计的 美国人已经被保尔森的计划激怒了。

社会团体，工会，以及所有那些捍卫劳动人民利益的人士应该要求国有化银行和金融机构（保险公司，对冲基金等 ）并在工人的控制和管理下以民主计划的方式运行，而不是国有化金融资本的不良资产和坏账。只在必要的基础上 补偿小股东和存款人。

银行部门的运行应促进能提供大部分人口所需要的商品和服务的行业的利益，而不是为少数超级富裕的金融资本家 的投机活动提供资金。银行应提供廉价的抵押贷款以帮助供个人购房者（设置一个排除富人购买豪宅 的贷款上限） 。它们还应向小企业和小农户提供廉价信贷以便他们能为当地社区的需要服务。

当然这些措施将令许多人面临对更广泛的经济部门的所有权和控制权的问题，并需要用民主的计划来取代市场的无 政府状态和赤裸裸的惟利是图。例如，美国政府目前正在考虑给大汽车公司福特、克莱斯勒和通用汽车公司一揽子 国家担保贷款。这些公司处在严重的危机中，应该把它们置于工人的民主控制和管理下来运行以便满足社会的需要 。
工会和社会团体应完全反对所有丧失抵押品赎回权。应该取消凡通过欺诈行为或欺骗手段已售出的抵押贷款。没有 能力按揭还款的购房者应有权以负担得起的社会化的租金租借房屋。通过丧失抵押品赎回权和建设者和房地产公司 的破产，产生了一些空房，国家和地方政府应接管无人居住的房屋并且以负担得起的租金出租出去。关于抵押贷款 违约，丧失抵押品赎回权和房屋所有者的权利的决定，一般不应由政府官员或破产法院来作出，而应由全民选举出 来的将维护劳动人民的权利的委员会来作出。

一个新的时期

如果国会通过可能带有一些修改的保尔森的一揽子方案，金融崩溃或可避免。在付诸实施的具体措施上仍然会有严 重的争吵。然而，营救计划本身不会恢复金融部门。美国住房危机，信贷紧缩之根本，还远远没有结束。即使政府 接管不良资产，金融部门的巨额亏损意味着信贷紧缩将持续多年。

金融部门的拯救将不会使美国经济避免衰退，美国经济正在放缓。此外，美国经济放缓加上在许多其他经济体的金 融危机正把世界推向经济衰退。现在欧洲的经济有一个急剧的衰退。日本，近年来开始有些微弱的恢复，但再次陷 入零增长。中国，仍然被视为世界经济的动力，预计将放慢，从11-12 ％的增长降到2008年的约8 ％ 。虽然8 ％的比例相对较高，但是这将在中国产生严重的经济上和政治上的影响。

20世纪80年代以来通过在美国和其他国家助长债务为基础的消费开支（驱使在中国和其他低成本经济体生产廉 价商品）的一系列的金融泡沫，资本主义生产和盈利能力的潜在的危机已被推迟数次 。但是，现在得到清算的时候了。极度的债务之山的崩溃几乎肯定意味着长时间的世界资本主义经济增长疲软。毫 无疑问，仍然有一个经济周期，但很可能不会返回到2001-07之间经历的那种全球繁荣了。

最近阶段的加速全球化和不受约束的新自由主义政策即将结束并将迎来一个全新的发展时期。针对金融部门的大规 模的国家干预将对贸易，国际货币流通和产业政策具有广泛的影响。主要资本主义势力之间的关系将更趋紧张。长 期的停滞、断断续续的微弱复苏和再次的衰退将引起社会危机和强权间的政治斗争。资本主义的经济危机同时也是 意识形态和政治的危机，这不可避免地会重新把马克思主义提到政治议程上来。

[F9]

您有中国语言论坛的意义！
财政部停止！
:lol:

Fuserg9:star:

[Trystan]

He's back! :)

[sunfarstar]

This is an article on the world economy, especially the U.S. economy, the article, I hope you will be able to look at carefully, very thought-provoking

[F9]

men we dont understand chinese!:rolleyes:and google translate can only give us a very lame translation with no meaning!
Probably this goes either in trash either in chinese forum!

Fuserg9:star:

[sunfarstar]

Why can not you learn Chinese? I used to use Chinese expression to explain my point of view. For English, I was not very skilled.

[Trystan]

Why can not you learn Chinese? I used to use Chinese expression to explain my point of view. For English, I was not very skilled.

Well, unfortunately, some of us just don't have time sunfarstar. By the way, tell me - are you in the CPC?

[sunfarstar]

I am a Marxist, first of all, I am a communist, then, my career is a photographer. I think I was a good amateur economist. I love contemporary art. I also like literature. I am a Chinese Revolutionary Party [Marxist-Leninist] founder, (a very small Communist Party, there are more than 300). We have very influential among young people.

[Incendiarism]

I like you, sunfarstar

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

I translated the article using Babelfish, but machine translations of Far Eastern languages are notoriously unreliable:

World economics big breakage omen

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paulson's package arrangement Brother Leiman company and Merrill Lynch crisis eruption and short-term money market malfunction (, although continues by federal reserve committee and other Central Bank, infuses floating capital after massively), Paulson is compelled to announce that (on September 18) wholesale saves the plan, namely TARP. Has not provided any detail, Paulson suggested that spent 7,000 hundred million US dollar taxpayer's money to establish one still the bad negotiable securities trashcan which could not sell out in the financial organ register of names. It is reported that 500,000,000,000 US dollars losses were cancelled, but some people estimated that amounts to 1,000,000,000,000 US dollars from the housing market's surplus negotiable securities.

Along with Paulson's statement, the global stock market transaction restores immediately. However, Congress leader, regardless of Democratic Party and Republican Party start to protest that nearly immediately Paulson's rescue plan the superficial nature and he takes minister of finance's exceptional powers. Paulson suggested that should give minister of finance (is at first two years) acts according to his judgment to purchase the negotiable securities by any price from anybody there the infinite authority. In addition, he also requests to be exempt from the court or the government administrative machinery any form prosecution. At first, he proposed that only purchases the American Bank the negotiable securities, but expands very quickly to includes the Foreign bank the American subsidiary company. If the United States Congress accepts this suggestion, Paulson will be in the American history most formidable minister of finance.

Newsweek" (Newsweek) in the title page said that he is “King Henry”. In fact, minister of finance will become the US capitalism the surveillance (will not have been merely to Congress reported every year two times) the economical responsible staffs, may be a worthy opponent with president's authority. After being similar to the Bush 9/11 events is the same, under the Bonake support, Paulson is attempting the threat which collapses by the global finance to urge Congress, in has not discussed its content in the situation to authorize his suggestion rapidly thoroughly. Example Paulson requests this package arrangement to be “neat”, i.e. it should not be restrained any suggestion, if the government obtains the stock to receive in exchange for the purchase bad debt, either limits banker's salary, either the homeowner avoid faces loses the collateral to redeem the power.

Craves the banker who goes bankrupt in saving, Paulson refuses to buy homes public figure's legitimate rights and interests brutally. Paulson proposed that the payment probably the close bad negotiable securities' face value, counts by US dollar surpasses 60 cents, but is not its 20 or 30 cent current market value. In addition, the different bank, the Financial company and other companies is soliciting support in order to expand the rescue the scope. For example, the request the municipal bond, the credit card debt and the automobile purchase debt includes. Wall Street's company already anticipated that from carries out in the Paulson plan service to collect fees. , Financial company's people in charge were very so warm-hearted to Paulson's suggestion are nothing unusual. However, some open market principle's Republican Party condemned intensely this plan is “the debt socialization”. From Kentucky's Republican Sen Jim•The bunning (Jim Bunning) declared: “in the US, suited of all intentions and the goal open market has died.”He said that Paulson's plan “will take to Wall Street's pain the taxpayer… It is finance socialism, it is the non-US-like”.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party leaders request the owner who adopts the measure help pain. Paulson has rejected this request, its reason is this batch of bad negotiable securities is too complex cannot reduce the individual owner's payment volume. “bank and securities business… Can extremely and the change fight, just like they proposed housing bill (in July through) when does” (on September 24 "International herald tribune"). Paulson's present suggestion was completely different with the early-1990s saving deposit and the Loan company (thrifts [thrift institution]) when adopted measure. At that time, The US government has nationalized effectively bankruptcy's thrift institution, and before has sold the thrift institution returns for in personal all times its surplus assets. after 1994, the strong economic growth restored the pledge assets value, and causes the government to be possible to take back the part rescue the cost. After 1991-92 year real estate froth bursts Sweden Government has taken the similar measure.

The government has nationalized a Bank of Sweden Department's major part, reduced these bankruptcy's organization shareholder, afterward has sold the property which once more all may sell, afterward, the bank returned to the Private sector. But, rescues the cost approximately to reach Sweden's GDP (, although fished some costs with the lapse of time) 4%. The US bourgeoisie will resist the large-scale nationalization US Banking industry firmly without a doubt. At present Paulson's rescue suggested that the wasting assets approximately 7,000 hundred million US dollars, are equal to GDP 5%. However, Paulson has no intention to take over control bankruptcy's American Bank, is only through all buys their bad debt to cause them to get out of trouble, thus enables them to supplement that its capital and moved equally in the past likely gets down. Paulson does not even request to purchase its bad account to receive in exchange obtains the bank stock.

Paulson's package arrangement will be approved Congress's? In view of the fact that Congress opposed the strength, will have the possibility to have some draggings as well as Paulson will possibly be compelled to accept some revisions, specially he advocated superior not the authority which will stop. But, is facing the threat which and the new social unrest possibility the money market further falls, looks like Congress will disintegrate before November's election accepts this package arrangement by this kind or a that form. Socialism choice Paulson declared that who the people don't care about to have the bank. But million counts the house owner will care about the government to use taxpayer's money to help the sell mortgage loan and to enable the loan securitization the bank to get rid of the difficult position, but several million people and will lose the collateral faced with the violation interest rate to redeem the power the threat.

In fact, million counts the American was already enraged by Paulson's plan. The social group, the trade union, as well as possesses the public figure who these guard the working people benefit to request the nationalization bank and the financial organ (Insurance company, to flushes fund and so on) and under worker's control and the management by the democracy plan way movement, but is not the nationalization financial capital bad assets and the bad account. Only compensates the young shareholder and the depositor in the essential foundation. Banking sector's movement should promote to be able to provide the commodity which and the service profession benefit the majority of populations need, but is not provides the fund for the minority super wealthy financial capitalist's aleatory operation.

The bank should provide the inexpensive mortgage loan to help for individual home-buyer (to establish one to remove rich person to purchase mansion loan upper limit). They should also provide the inexpensive credit to the Small business and the small peasant household, so that they can need to serve for the local community. Certainly these measure military order many people faced with to the more widespread Branches of the economy's property rights and the domination question, and need to use the democracy the plan to substitute for the market the anarchy and naked being bent solely on profit. For example, The US government present was considering that gives big Car company Ford, Chrysler and the General Motors wholesale country secured loan. These companies occupy in the serious crisis, should put in them worker's democracy to control and to manage the movement in order to satisfy social the need.

The trade union and the social group should oppose completely all loses the collateral to redeem the power. Should cancel every through the fraudulent practice or the deception measure already the mortgage loan which sells. Does not have the socialized rent which ability mortgage repayments's home-buyer should be authorized to be able to bear to rent the house. Through loses the collateral to redeem the power and the constructor and Real estate company's bankruptcy, has produced some vacant room, national and the Local authority adapter nobody housing house, and can bear the rent hires. About the mortgage loan violation, loses the collateral to redeem the power and the house owner's right decision, generally should not makes by the government officials or the bankrupt court, but should elect by all the people will maintain working people's right committee to make.

A new time If Congress through possibly has some revision Paulson's package arrangement, the finance collapses or may avoid. In puts into practice in the specific measures will still have the serious quarrel. However, will rescue the plan itself not to restore the financial department. US housing crisis, basis of the contraction of credit, but also had not finished by far. Even if the government takes over control the bad assets, the financial department's large amount loss means that the contraction of credit will continue many years. The financial department will save will not cause the American economy to avoid declining, the American economy will be postponing. In addition, the American economy postpones to add on is pushing to many other economy financial crises the world the economic recession.

Now Europe's economy has a sudden decline. Japan, started the somewhat weak restoration in recent years, but fell into the zero growth once more. China, still regarded as the world economics the power, will estimate will slow down, will fall from 11-12% growths to 2008 approximately 8%. Although 8% proportions are relatively high, but this will have in the serious economical and the political influence in China. Since the 1980s through has encouraged the debt in the US and other countries for the foundation expense (obligation in Chinese and other low cost economy production inexpensive commodity) a series of financial froth, the capitalist production and the profit ability latent crisis has been postponed several times. But, obtains settlement time now. Mountain's of the extreme debt collapse nearly definitely means that the long time the world capitalist economy growth is worn out. Without a doubt, still one economic cycle, but very possible not to return to that kind of whole world which will experience to 2001-07 between to be prosperous.

Recently the stage will accelerate the globalization and the new liberalism policy which restrained soon was not ended and will welcome a brand-new development time. In view of the financial department's large-scale state intervention to the trade, the international currency circulation and the industrial policy will have the widespread influence. Between the main capitalism influence's relations will hasten intense. The long-term stagnation, the off and on weak recovery and the decline once more will cause the social crisis and the might political struggle. Capitalism's economic crisis simultaneously is also the ideology and the political crisis, the Marxism will mention again inevitably the political agenda will come up.

---

If anyone can make any sense of that, I salute you.

sunfarstar, do you understand this? I have used short sentences to avoid confusion:

从英国的问候。 我是无政府主义者共产主义者。 我希望您是在身体好。 汉语语言，是困难的。 从机器的翻译是不可靠的。 它宰割语法。 语言，它划分人民。 您是否同意？

[sunfarstar]

Language is the division of God to human society. As long as we grasp it, is a useful weapon. Marx once said: learning a foreign language is an important tool in the fight against life, ah!

[Trystan]

i am a marxist, first of all, i am a communist, then, my career is a photographer. I think i was a good amateur economist. I love contemporary art. I also like literature. I am a chinese revolutionary party [marxist-leninist] founder, (a very small communist party, there are more than 300). We have very influential among young people.

什么关于 有希望! 人权! 民主! 自由! 平等 ?

[sunfarstar]

人权! 民主! 自由! 平等!这些字眼是好的.但是,我们不能凭空的去谈论它们,要和实际的生活相结合.我们党的宗旨:实现中国的 社会主义.进而为世界实现共产主义尽一份自己很小的力量.我们是很年轻的,胜利必将属于我们.眼前的世界经 济危机预示着一个更好的时代即将要到来,如果看不到这一点,未免过于悲观主义.我相信组织起来的无产阶级在 无产阶级革命家的领导下,会自觉起来斗争.革命必胜!

[Trystan]

sunfarstar - your enthusiasm has made my day. :)

[sunfarstar]

We have always been brothers of the proletariat. Thank you for the reply. You have to learn a deep impression on me. If you can come to Shanghai, China, to welcome you to my house guest. We are preparations for the World Expo in Shanghai, China. You are welcome to come and see .

http://www.expo2010china.com/

[Q]

Sunfarstar you might be interested in http://www.chinaworker.info/ if you didn't knew it already :)

[sunfarstar]

i had know.but ,i can not link it.:(

[sunfarstar]

i find here.
http://www.zggr.cn/

[RedScare]

A pity I haven't gotten around to learning Chinese yet. :(

[sunfarstar]

you can use gooooogle.:rolleyes:

[Sendo]

Well why don't you learn English sunfarstar, rather than demand we English speakers on an English forums learn Chinese. and if you have the time to learn English like you say, then could you do the honors of translating, rather than expect hundreds to pick up Mandarin in a short time.

[Q]

i had know.but ,i can not link it.:(

You mean that is blocked by the government? Somehow that wouldn't surprise me.

[sunfarstar]

China is also to a large extent the lack of freedom of expression, protection of the rights and interests of the working class is not enough.

We need public opinion

http://www.cnyulun.com/