ckaihatsu
16th May 2008, 00:48
[From www.ft-ci.org]
Lebanon: The advance of Hezbollah By Juan Chingo
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The actions of Hezbollah in Lebanon, showing the military weakness of the Sunni forces that answer to Saad Hariri, as shown by the seizure of the Sunni zone of West Beirut and the subsequent defeat of the pro-Western Sunni and Druze forces in the Valley of Bekaa and Tripoli, etc., with the lack of response by the armed forces to the orders of the pro-Western Siniora government, constitute an enormous advance for Hezbollah. This military campaign was an answer to the government's decision to fire the Beirut Airport's security chief, connected to a Hezbollah ally, and above all, the government's decision to suppress Hezbollah's telecommunications network, which was considered as an act of war by Hassan Nasrallah, the main Hezbollah leader. The ease with which the Hezbollah forces seized territorial control of West Beirut's main strongholds is one sign that the Sunni partisans are not prepared to fight and die for the wealthy Hariri family, which controls the country economically, supported by the Saudi Arabian royal family, and has been the main promoter of sectarian tensions in Beirut over the last three years, in spite of the fact that they do not sympathize with the Shiite militias. This outcome, after months of political paralysis, makes Hezbollah the main political force in Lebanon and the decisive factor in any negotiation on the future government of Lebanon. This result is favorable for Syria and Iran and a catastrophe for Saudi Arabia, that sees Shiite influence growing not just in the Gulf, but also in the Levant (the zone east of the Mediterranean). The State of Israel will have to see how to fight on this new front, having wavered for the whole year between a new military offensive to erase Hezbollah's victory in the 2006 war and opening negotiations with Syria, while the Palestinian resistance is not calming down, and Olmert's government has been greatly weakened internally by a new case of corruption. Internationally, the new equation of forces in Lebanon is bad news for the US, weakening that country in front of the Iranians, who could demand more favorable negotiations, not only about Iraq, but even on the nuclear subject. How will Washington respond to these challenges? In the coming months, the Middle East will continue to make people talk.
Lebanon: The advance of Hezbollah By Juan Chingo
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The actions of Hezbollah in Lebanon, showing the military weakness of the Sunni forces that answer to Saad Hariri, as shown by the seizure of the Sunni zone of West Beirut and the subsequent defeat of the pro-Western Sunni and Druze forces in the Valley of Bekaa and Tripoli, etc., with the lack of response by the armed forces to the orders of the pro-Western Siniora government, constitute an enormous advance for Hezbollah. This military campaign was an answer to the government's decision to fire the Beirut Airport's security chief, connected to a Hezbollah ally, and above all, the government's decision to suppress Hezbollah's telecommunications network, which was considered as an act of war by Hassan Nasrallah, the main Hezbollah leader. The ease with which the Hezbollah forces seized territorial control of West Beirut's main strongholds is one sign that the Sunni partisans are not prepared to fight and die for the wealthy Hariri family, which controls the country economically, supported by the Saudi Arabian royal family, and has been the main promoter of sectarian tensions in Beirut over the last three years, in spite of the fact that they do not sympathize with the Shiite militias. This outcome, after months of political paralysis, makes Hezbollah the main political force in Lebanon and the decisive factor in any negotiation on the future government of Lebanon. This result is favorable for Syria and Iran and a catastrophe for Saudi Arabia, that sees Shiite influence growing not just in the Gulf, but also in the Levant (the zone east of the Mediterranean). The State of Israel will have to see how to fight on this new front, having wavered for the whole year between a new military offensive to erase Hezbollah's victory in the 2006 war and opening negotiations with Syria, while the Palestinian resistance is not calming down, and Olmert's government has been greatly weakened internally by a new case of corruption. Internationally, the new equation of forces in Lebanon is bad news for the US, weakening that country in front of the Iranians, who could demand more favorable negotiations, not only about Iraq, but even on the nuclear subject. How will Washington respond to these challenges? In the coming months, the Middle East will continue to make people talk.