'Crackdown' in Iraq back-firing?

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Perhaps so:



As the seige of Basra (http://www.historiae.org/sawlah.asp) creates a humanitarian crisis (http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=77479), with 51 killed in the fighting (http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL27782195), thousands of protestors (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html?_r=2&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin) have protested the seige in Baghdad. The Sadrists are now, according to Patrick Cockburn, the biggest political movement in Iraq (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iraq-implodes-as-shia-fights-shia-801214.html). Missing Links (http://arablinks.blogspot.com/2008/03/government-forces-in-basra-not-fighting.html) cites Kuwaiti news agency reports that Iraqi soldiers are refusing to fight, suggesting there's no enthusiasm among the 'Iraqi forces' for this battle, and the Times confirms that there are widespread reports of defections from the police to the militias and ... clear signs that the operation could backfire badly (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3635455.ece). But then, I suspect the 'Iraqi forces' know the whole system is a farce and most of them are trying to get something out of it for their families. Agence-France Press says the revolt is spreading (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=90350). All of which suggests that Maliki and his backers have drastically miscalculated.


From here:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/03/basra-seige-unleashes-storm-of-protest.html

[Fedorov]

From here:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/...f-protest.html (http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/03/basra-seige-unleashes-storm-of-protest.html)Well I'm sort of doubting the legitimacy and bias of that website. Lenin's tomb?

Anyway, according to my friends brother who is about to go on his second tour of duty things are indeed getting worse in many places. As for troops defecting to militias I doubt that. Most join up for the money and ditch to get something to eat for their family. The number of truly zealous "fighters" isn't that high, its just a way to get by.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Fedorov, you are right, the site is biased: against US imperialism, and in favour of the Iraq resistance.

What else did you expect from a lefty?

And, 'Lenin' didn't say that troops were defecting; he merely quoted a source that suggested they were.

And, what do you mean 'legitimacy'?

Do blogs need some sort of certificate -- perhaps from you?

[PRC-UTE]

Do blogs need some sort of certificate -- perhaps from you?

Perhaps from me.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Percy cute -- now, you I would trust...:)

[Andy Bowden]

Richard Seymours Lenins Tomb blog is good at times, sometimes I agree with it, sometimes I dont. Just like any other blog you should read it critically.

From what I can see in Iraq there appears to be a concerted offensive by the US to display the surge as a success, and Iraq as developing as a nation. Part of this offensive appears to be a desire to let the Iraqi Army cut their teeth; it serves to minimise coalition casualites on the one hand, and it also backs up the propaganda goal of Iraq as being a genuinely independent country with the US as "invited".

In reality though the current Iraqi President Maliki is himself associated with the Badr Brigades - a different Shia millitia group from Al-Sadrs Mehdi army - and this is probably more of an attempt by one millitia to crush the other. With the added advantage of US support and training of course.

[Faux Real]

According to a few reports I've heard on the news Iraqi soldiers have been shedding their army uniforms and joining al Sadr's group.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Don't you mean al Sadr's group?

[spartan]

Things must be getting bad for the Iraqi government forces in Basra as they have had to call in British air attacks against insurgent positions.

Soon they will probably be calling for the British forces in their base outside the city to come back into the city to attempt to restore order.

And all this after the British government said that their sector was peaceful enough for them to withdraw from the city and cut down the total amount of troops in Iraq.

[Faux Real]

Don't you mean al Sadr's group?Yes that, my mistake. Fixed...

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Another report worth reading here, today:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/03/sadrs-revolt-and-myths-of-surge.html

[Colonello Buendia]

this reminds me of the march revolution, soldiers defecting to support the people.

[Fedorov]

Fedorov, you are right, the site is biased: against US imperialism, and in favour of the Iraq resistance.

What else did you expect from a lefty?

And, 'Lenin' didn't say that troops were defecting; he merely quoted a source that suggested they were.

And, what do you mean 'legitimacy'?

Do blogs need some sort of certificate -- perhaps from you?

Perhaps they do need a certificate, don't get all antsy because of my comment. It doesn't mean I don't think the information is credible but that it requires extra scrutiny. The name "Lenin's Tomb" gave me a bit of a chuckle.

As for the defecting perhaps I skimmed or the like. Personally I don't think they defect from the army to Al' Sadr's army, who according to the mainstream news (BBC ect.) has little control of the current situation.


this reminds me of the march revolution, soldiers defecting to support the people.

Its a shame its not a revolution and just sectarian violence. I of course oppose US imperialism but an extremely orthodox Islamic state does not tickle my fancy either. I wouldn't say that the opposition is the "people".


Things must be getting bad for the Iraqi government forces in Basra as they have had to call in British air attacks against insurgent positions.

Soon they will probably be calling for the British forces in their base outside the city to come back into the city to attempt to restore order.

And all this after the British government said that their sector was peaceful enough for them to withdraw from the city and cut down the total amount of troops in Iraq.

I'm sure everyone has seen Iraqi army clips online somewhere where the recruits can't do jumping jacks in sync. A poorly performing Iraqi army doesn't surprise me.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Fedorov:



It doesn't mean I don't think the information is credible but that it requires extra scrutiny. The name "Lenin's Tomb" gave me a bit of a chuckle.



The guy who runs it is a friend of mine, and his writings speak for themselves.


Personally I don't think they defect from the army to Al' Sadr's army, who according to the mainstream news (BBC ect.) has little control of the current situation.


Check out my next post below.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Latest reoprt:



Areas of Baghdad fall to militias as Iraqi Army falters in Basra

Iraq’s Prime Minister was staring into the abyss today after his operation to crush militia strongholds in Basra stalled, members of his own security forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia militia gunmen.

With the threat of a civil war looming in the south, Nouri al-Maliki’s police chief in Basra narrowly escaped assassination in the crucial port city, while in Baghdad, the spokesman for the Iraqi side of the US military surge was kidnapped by gunmen and his house burnt to the ground.

Saboteurs also blew up one of Iraq's two main oil pipelines from Basra, cutting at least a third of the exports from the city which provides 80 per cent of government revenue, a clear sign that the militias — who siphon significant sums off the oil smuggling trade — would not stop at mere insurrection.

In Baghdad, thick black smoke hung over the city centre tonight and gunfire echoed across the city.

The most secure area of the capital, Karrada, was placed under curfew amid fears the Mahdi Army of Hojetoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr could launch an assault on the residence of Abdelaziz al-Hakim, the head of a powerful rival Shia governing party.

While the Mahdi Army has not officially renounced its six-month ceasefire, which has been a key component in the recent security gains, on the ground its fighters were chasing police and soldiers from their positions across Baghdad.

Rockets from Sadr City slammed into the governmental Green Zone compound in the city centre, killing one person and wounding several more.

Mr al-Maliki has gambled everything on the success of Operation Saulat al-Fursan, or Charge of the Knights, to sweep illegal militias out of Basra.

It has targeted neighbourhoods where the Mahdi Army dominates, prompting intense fighting with mortars, rocket-grenades and machineguns in the narrow, fetid alleyways of Basra.

In Baghdad, the Mahdi Army took over neighbourhood after neighbourhood, some amid heavy fighting, others without firing a shot.

In New Baghdad, militiamen simply ordered the police to leave their checkpoints: the officers complied en masse and the guerrillas stepped out of the shadows to take over their checkpoints.

In Jihad, a mixed Sunni and Shia area of west Baghdad that had been one of the worst battlefields of Iraq’s dirty sectarian war in 2006, Mahdi units moved in and residents started moving out to avoid the lethal crossfire that erupted.

One witness saw Iraqi Shia policemen rip off their uniform shirts and run for shelter with local Sunni neighbourhood patrols, most of them made up of former insurgents wooed by the US military into fighting al-Qaeda.

In Baghdad, thousands of people marched in demonstrations in Shia areas demanding an end to the Basra operation, burning effigies of Mr al-Maliki, whom they branded a new dictator, and carrying coffins with his image on it.

From his field headquarters inside Basra city, the Prime Minister vowed to press on with his attack, which he said was not targeting the Mahdi Army in particular but all lawless gangs. "We have come to Basra at the invitation of the civilians to do our national duty and protect them from the gangs who have terrified them and stolen the national wealth," he said. "We promise to face the criminals and gunmen and we will never back off from our promise."

Supporters of Hojetoleslam al-Sadr, the rebellious cleric who formed the sprawling, 60,000-strong militia five years ago, have accused the Prime Minister of trying to wipe out the powerful Sadrists as a political force before provincial elections in October.

Residents of Basra complained that water and electricity had been turned off in the three main areas besieged by the Iraqi Army, which has an entire division deployed for the battle. They also said that they were running low on food an unable to evacuate their wounded. Estimates of the death toll in Basra reached as high as 200, with hundreds more wounded.

“The battle is not easy without coalition support,” lamented one Basra resident, who had worked as a translator for the British forces. “The police in Basra are useless and helping the Mahdi Army. The militia are hiding among the civilians. This country will never be safe, I want to leave for ever. I don’t know how to get out of this hell.”


One man was shot in the leg while trying to fix the rooftop water tank on his house but feared he would be taken for a militiaman if he tried to reach a hospital. Officials said that more than 200 militiamen had surrendered after the Government issued a three-day deadline to give themselves up.

While residents in Basra said that the army appeared to be making little headway against the militia bastions, a British Army spokesman based at nearby Basra airport said progress was being made.

“The Iraqi Army are rebalancing across the city, consolidating their positions, resupplying and preparing for future operations,” said Major Tom Holloway. “They made considerable progress, although not total progress by any stretch of the imagination.”

With fighting flaring across the Shia south, the police chief of Kut — where Mahdi fighters had seized large parts of the town, 110 miles southeast of Baghdad — said his men had killed 40 militiamen while losing four officers.

"The security forces launched an operation at around midnight to take back areas under the control of Shiite gunmen," Abdul Hanin al-Amara said.

While US and British military officials have been at pains to distance themselves from the push against the deadly militias, President Bush praised the high-risk strategy of tackling militias that a politically weak Mr al-Maliki had been forced to court in the past.

"Prime Minister Maliki's bold decision, and it was a bold decision, to go after the illegal groups in Basra shows his leadership and his commitment to enforce the law in an even-handed manner," Mr Bush said. "It also shows the progress the Iraqi security forces have made during the surge."

If the Iraqi forces fail to stamp out the powerful militias, however, and Iraq sinks into a new bout of in-fighting, Mr Bush’s troops and British forces may be forced to weigh in, sparking a new round of blood-letting ahead of US elections and scuttling British plans for an early withdrawal from Iraq.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3631718.ece?token=null&offset=12

[Kyznetsov]

If anything it shows that the 'nationstate identity' of Iraq is non-existant, their is no such sense of nationhood in Iraq.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Latest:



Sadr's Strange Victory

What did he have to do to win? Well, once again, he didn't start or provoke the fight. In fact, he had recently renewed his organisation's ceasefire, so anything short of his being decisively defeated is by default a victory for him. Maliki's stated goal was to disarm the Mahdi Army, and that clearly isn't going to happen. Maliki tried to use the 'Iraqi forces' in order to defeat the Mahdi, but found he couldn't. Some Iraqi police refused to fight (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/police-refuse-to-support-iraqi-pms-attacks-on-mehdi-army-802361.html), while others took their guns and went to fight for the other side (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3635838.ece). Basra was decisively in Mahdi control (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/31/world/middleeast/31basra.html?ref=middleeast). In short order, Baghdad, Kut, Karbala, Nasiriyah, Hilla and several southern cities and towns were in revolt. Hassan Jumaa of Iraq's main oil union reported that there was a widespread popular revolt (http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/art.php?id=14525), and there is evidence that both the US and Maliki feared the development of a combined national revolt (http://arablinks.blogspot.com/2008/03/maliki-and-us-fear-emergence-of-another.html). While Maliki had pleaded with the occupiers to stay out of fighting, lest it be seen as a war of occupation versus resistance (and the Dawa Party will not look good in the upcoming elections if he is seen as the occupiers' puppet), it wasn't long before he had to call them in. Now, it looks like they're having to settle for an Iranian-brokered ceasefire (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-03-30-iraqnews_N.htm) that leaves Sadr's organisation intact and his political standing immensely enhanced. What's more, it seems the negotiations were instigated by Maliki's government: "We asked Iranian officials to help us convince him that we were not cracking down on the Sadr group", said an Iraqi official (http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/553515.html). From "worse than Al Qaeda" to "pwease lets be fwends" is a big shift. Sadr's order for his militias to get off the streets is a test of his control over the organisation, but it is hardly a white flag.

Consider the position of the occupiers in all this. There is now a story going round that US officials didn't know that the attack on Basra was coming. As Marc Lynch points out, this is hardly credible (http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2008/03/moral-hazard.html). It is highly unlikely that Cheney's recent visit to Iraq didn't involve some discussion of the Sadrists. Assuming what appears to be obvious, namely that this attack was ordered by the US, then what is the upshot? If the US is obliged to accept an Iranian-backed peace deal, it isn't because they were militarily defeated. The US was bombing from a great height, and could easily have destroyed Basra and its inhabitants and the Mahdi fighters. The fact that this is not Fallujah is not because of the superior rifle power or military training of Sadr's supporters. It is because of Sadr's currently unmatched political power.



More here:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/03/sadrs-strange-victory.html

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Latest:


Muqtada al-Sadr's scheduled protest for 9 April (yesterday) was, of course, called off in a hurry, as refugees were fleeing the city under bombardment. The air attacks continue to mount up, the latest reported attack killing ten Iraqis - in a "militia stronghold", of course. Loud explosions are being heard all over Sadr City as violence across Baghdad 'spirals'. It isn't hard to see why this is happening. Sadr City is, as I mentioned, a vast, populous area, larger than Basra or Najaf. It is the key area of Sadrist resistance, the base from which the movement's strengths emanate. But why now? Previously, when Sadr has humiliated the occupiers and their local chumps, there has been a period of backing off and a brief, negotiated peace. This time, having watched Maliki fail, the US is upping the ante.

Well, although Maliki was indeed humiliated, and had to run to Iran for a settlement before begging for fifty of his armoured cars back from the insurgents, he seems to have been told by the US to get back down to it. Gen. Petraeus expects the Basra crackdown to last for another few months. So, as America bombs from a great height, "Iraqi forces" are sent in to do the ground work. Presumably, the reasoning is that if the Sunni north holds, there is no reason to hold back in Baghdad and the south. Of course, there were still hundreds of attacks even in the relatively peaceful months since September 2007, mainly in Baghdad and the northern provinces of Ninewah, Diyala, and Salah-ah-Din. And in fact the number of attacks in Ninewah increased by 17% between November 2007 and March 2008. So, we shouldn't too carried away by the claims for the 'pacification' of Sunni Iraq. Nevertheless, the obvious and quite dramatic decline in the overall reported attacks since the co-optation of 'Awakening Councils' and the Sadrist ceasefire at the end of August 2007 has probably given the US army leadership a shot of confidence. So now they're giving Sadr City a taste of what Fallujah, Tal Afar, al-Qaim, Haditha, Samarra and Ramadi have each got in different measures over the past three or four years. In riposte, the resistance is raising the rate of its assault, as seventeen troops have been killed since Sunday.

With the oil laws still not signed into law, with social forces embroiled in a politico-military struggle for the future control of Iraq, and with intransigent unions resisting US designs, they have no plans of getting out of Iraq any time soon. Indeed, as Seumas Milne revealed, they plan an open-ended military presence in the country. It has to be open-ended, of course. Even McCain's Hundred Year Reich is too limiting. Even the current supine political leadership in Iraq isn't going to completely go along with that, for fear of being swallowed up by an angry revolt. Suppose the Sadrists were to 'arrive' in the next elections, with control of much of southern Iraq and Baghdad? Suppose, then, the 'Awakening Councils' were to start plugging their American overlords again? They clearly intend to take the initiative while they have a window: as the troops selected to speak to embedded NYT reporters insist, this "has got to be done". And the US has lost faith in the capacity of its political allies in Iraq to do the job.

Evidential links can be found here:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/04/sadr-city-crackdown.html