What is happening in Iraq?

[Karl Marx's Camel]

Apparently there have been a downswing in insurgent attacks in Iraq. Why is that, you think?

What is happening to the insurgency? Has it been more or less defeated? :unsure:

Is it trying to regroup?

[Lynx]

The insurgency appears to be winding down, with further conflict between Sunni and Shia still brewing.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Excellent report here:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2007/12/lat...ance-stats.html (http://leninology.blogspot.com/2007/12/latest-iraqi-resistance-stats.html)

There has been a massive switch to air strikes but the US, leading to a marked increadse in civilian casualties, and a reduction in US patrols:

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2007/12/sec...-confirmed.html (http://leninology.blogspot.com/2007/12/secret-air-war-confirmed.html)

Another link to follow.

Ok, check this out too:

http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/art.php?id=13447

[peaccenicked]

I think the editor here (http://www.endofempire.org/reports.php?page=471) is spot on

[manic expression]

This is my impression: The insurgents have chosen when and where fighting will take place. It's been this way almost from Day 1. In the past, they have chosen to lessen their attacks, only to escalate their offensives soon after. American forces have to roll with whatever the insurgency decides to do.

What's completely clear is that the insurgency is not defeated. The only groups that have been eliminated are aligned with al-Qaida, and the rest of the insurgency (Sunni, Shiite, Turkmen, etc.) didn't like them anyway. If anything, the insurgency is probably stronger because of this (their opponent was weakened and they got assistance and equipment from US forces).

[The Douche]

The insurgents are not stupid. The surge came, a lot more troops showed up, so they calmed down and went underground for a while. As the surge starts winding down violence will go up.

Also, these statements probably only reflect insurgent attacks on coalition forces, and do not represent the civil war. I am here, in Iraq, there are still plenty of insurgents and there is still plenty of desire for them to continue the fight.

In any war there a lulls in the ferocity of the enemy's attacks. Its because they're taking time to re-arm, re-equip, and re-think thier strategy.

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

cmoney, thanks for that. I rather suspected this was the situation.

[SouthernBelle82]

Two words: ethnic cleansing. It's easy to say the killings are down when majority of the population is already dead or left the country.

[Red Terror Doctor]

The insurgents are resting for now. They are regrouping for election year 2008.

http://antiwar.com/updates/?articleid=12104


http://antiwar.com/updates/?articleid=12101


http://antiwar.com/updates/?articleid=12099


http://antiwar.com/updates/?articleid=12093

[Rosa Lichtenstein]

Southern Belle, at most 10-15% have left the country (and approximately 5% have been killed), and the 'ethnic' cleansing is largely orchestrated by US-paid/backed Shia militia, as the link I provided above will attest.

[Guerrilla22]

The media and the US government have been claiming that "we are making progress," over and over since September. The thing is, they've been saying this since 2003. The insurgents have simply moved on to other places where the US doesn't have large amounts of troops, like they did in Fallujah.

[The Douche]

Originally posted by Rosa [email protected] 24, 2007 05:53 pm
Southern Belle, at most 10-15% have left the country (and approximately 5% have been killed), and the 'ethnic' cleansing is largely orchestrated by US-paid/backed Shia militia, as the link I provided above will attest.
This (the shia thing) is largely true, from what I've seen, the Iraqis who are cooperating with the US are almost 99% shia, and often display this bias openly. And really only demonstrate any restraint when there are Americans present.

I'm sure that when the US pulls out we will see full on Balkan style ethnic cleansing, with the shia being trained and equipped by the west.

[SouthernBelle82]

Originally posted by Rosa [email protected] 24, 2007 05:53 pm
Southern Belle, at most 10-15% have left the country (and approximately 5% have been killed), and the 'ethnic' cleansing is largely orchestrated by US-paid/backed Shia militia, as the link I provided above will attest.
Isn't that the group who the US gave all these guns to? I remember hearing about that not too long ago. I couldn't remember though if they were Shia or Sunni. Also don't forget Saudi Arabia is helping out too I believe with the Sunni's. Nobody talks about them of course. :rolleyes:

[The Douche]

Originally posted by SouthernBelle82+December 26, 2007 06:44 pm--> (SouthernBelle82 @ December 26, 2007 06:44 pm)
Rosa [email protected] 24, 2007 05:53 pm
Southern Belle, at most 10-15% have left the country (and approximately 5% have been killed), and the 'ethnic' cleansing is largely orchestrated by US-paid/backed Shia militia, as the link I provided above will attest.
Isn't that the group who the US gave all these guns to? I remember hearing about that not too long ago. I couldn't remember though if they were Shia or Sunni. Also don't forget Saudi Arabia is helping out too I believe with the Sunni's. Nobody talks about them of course. :rolleyes: [/b]
The US isn't just handing out weapons, definitely not on a large scale. But the Shia compose the majority of forces (Iraqi Police, Iraqi Army etc) which are aligned with the US. (but this changes in certain regions)

Some of them genuinely support the occupation. Some of them are just trying to make some money. Some of them are trying to use those positions of power to kill other people for land/money/revenege/politcal reasons.

[Luís Henrique]

Originally posted by [email protected] 26, 2007 03:31 pm
I'm sure that when the US pulls out we will see full on Balkan style ethnic cleansing, with the shia being trained and equipped by the west.
While there surely will be some kind of ethnic conflict, I believe there will be a reversal of alliances. The Shia will go for Teheran, and "the West" will side with the Sunni.

Luís Henrique

[SouthernBelle82]

Originally posted by Luís Henrique+December 26, 2007 10:07 pm--> (Luís Henrique @ December 26, 2007 10:07 pm)
[email protected] 26, 2007 03:31 pm
I'm sure that when the US pulls out we will see full on Balkan style ethnic cleansing, with the shia being trained and equipped by the west.
While there surely will be some kind of ethnic conflict, I believe there will be a reversal of alliances. The Shia will go for Teheran, and "the West" will side with the Sunni.

Luís Henrique [/b]
I think you're right but only because Saudi Arabia will probably tell Bush to do it and he always jumps when they tell him to. Don't wanna piss of Daddy's friends.

[Zurdito]

Originally posted by SouthernBelle82+December 27, 2007 01:46 am--> (SouthernBelle82 @ December 27, 2007 01:46 am)
Originally posted by Luís [email protected] 26, 2007 10:07 pm

[email protected] 26, 2007 03:31 pm
I'm sure that when the US pulls out we will see full on Balkan style ethnic cleansing, with the shia being trained and equipped by the west.
While there surely will be some kind of ethnic conflict, I believe there will be a reversal of alliances. The Shia will go for Teheran, and "the West" will side with the Sunni.

Luís Henrique
I think you're right but only because Saudi Arabia will probably tell Bush to do it and he always jumps when they tell him to. Don't wanna piss of Daddy's friends. [/b]
I think it's more about neutralising Iran's influence.

I read that the US has already started backing certain sectarian Sunni militias. Anyone know more?