Which country? - Which country could fall to a leftist revol

[CheViveToday]

What country would be the most likely to fall to a leftist revolution in the near future? I'm not saying this is going to happen, I'm just asking that you all pretend with me for a minute. What country do you think would be the one to fall? Explain your reasons. I'm just curious. Thanks.

[Pete]

Larissa may very well disprove me, but the entire Latin America region seems ripe for revolution.

[Ian]

Nepal

[Guardia Bolivariano]

Quote: from CrazyPete on 11:08 pm on Feb. 16, 2003
Larissa may very well disprove me, but the entire Latin America region seems ripe for revolution.

Peru =Right wing goverment,no
Central america= coruption,to much dependency on the US,no
Nexico=rellies to much on the US for economic help,plus friendly goverment,no
Bolivia=they want to overtrow "american president",yes
Paraguay=they want to oust corupt president with masive popular movement,yes
Argentina=has had enough of the right ,yes
Chile="socialist president"maybe
Uruguay=posible but not many things happen in this quiet and peacefull nation
Ecuador=Lucio Gutierrez is unmasking to become an other US pupet.,no
Colombia=the US strongest allie in the region.No!
Dominican republic=No clear leader to make it possible.

In europe Spain can get somewhere If Zapatero wins the elections.

[Umoja]

Logically, I'd say Latin America, is ripe for it out of any place on Earth. Their isn't any other place where the feeling of Socialism is that strong though. South Africa may grow more to the left though.

[Guardia Bolivariano]

Nepal is the closest thing to old cold war revolution but I don't see those guerrillas coming out of the mountains to take the goverment any time soon.

[man in the red suit]

Haiti could FALL to a leftist revolution. They could submit to our blasphemous ways. lol

[Umoja]

I don't see that happening in Haiti, only because it's way to torn apart to pick up the pieces and form a socialist government, with no infrastructure to develop.

[Dr. Rosenpenis]

I don't think anything will happen in South America. Corporate America has had too large of an impact, the aristocratic bourgois keep gaining power and every politician, no matter how left, is bound by the corporations and cannot do anything too radical. What would be necessary would be a real revolution, but it's very hard to see one of those comming. The Brazilian youth at this moment seem to be socialistic, but I've only talked to my cousins, and they don't seems very revolutionary.

It's hard to predict these things. What we need is Che.

[CheViveToday]

There can and will be another Che.

[Show me the Money]

Spain?? The most right-wing European state of all? not likely!:shocked:

[Larissa]

Quote: from CrazyPete on 8:08 pm on Feb. 16, 2003
Larissa may very well disprove me, but the entire Latin America region seems ripe for revolution.
I agree with you Pete.

But I'm not sure which country. Maybe Venezuela. Chavez has just frozen school fees and many prices. Or Bolivia, they are really working hard and looking forward to a radical change.

Argentina and Brazil, both have strong middle rightist middle-classes who still support international agreement with the IMF or the World Bank and would love to become a US colony like PR.

Ecuador: Lucio Gutiérrez said that he will not govern for either the right or the left, just for the Ecuatorians

Chile: after Allende, never had anything close to the left.

Uruguay: doesn't have much chance to become socialist.

Perú: lejandro Toledo supports the poor ppl...but also believes in "financial liberty"

Colombia: after almost 40 years of struggle, will the Farc and ELN overthrow Uribe?

The influence and financial power of the US over the Latin American countries has dibided their positions in two clearly defined areas. Those countries who want to remain US pets and those who want to get rid of the US imperialism.

IMO, Venezuela and Bolivia are more likely to achieve it.

[redstar2000]

France, followed more or less immediately by Germany, Italy and possibly Spain...with most of the EU to follow.

Why? Because if Marx was right, the most advanced capitalist countries are "closest in time" to genuine communist revolution.

This is not to deny that there may be "quasi-socialist" revolutions in other parts of the world...only to say that they will have extraordinary difficulties in putting into place the rudiments of socialist structures.

The Cubans have done "wonders"...yet Cuban socialism is only a pale reflection of what communism would really be like in a rich country. (I think the Cubans would agree with me about that.)

Countries like Venezuela, Argentina, and especially Brazil would do a lot more than the Cubans have been able to accomplish...but the EU is, I think, where it has to happen, and therefore that's where I think we'll really see the decisive blow against world capitalism...perhaps by the end of this century, perhaps even sooner.

:cool:

[Anonymous]

a revolution in the states would be catastrofic...
in the minimal the revolutionary movement would be violently and ruthlessly ended...
and if it will diverge into civil war... then nuclear winter for everyone....

[ravengod]

why not romania?
the communist memories are far from being erased
many people consider that life during communism was better
which i don t

[Conghaileach]

I've been reading that Chavez has started subsidizing food and many services in Venezuela. The country's open to it.

[Larissa]

Quote: from CiaranB on 4:52 pm on Feb. 17, 2003
I've been reading that Chavez has started subsidizing food and many services in Venezuela. The country's open to it.I have much hope in Venezuela.

[Guardia Bolivariano]

Quote: from Larissa on 8:11 pm on Feb. 17, 2003

Quote: from CiaranB on 4:52 pm on Feb. 17, 2003
I've been reading that Chavez has started subsidizing food and many services in Venezuela. The country's open to it.I have much hope in Venezuela.

I also have a lot of faith in my president.We just need the full comitment of the poor like they fought in april.The people of our exploited country are our best weapon agaisnt the fascists.Etheir we win or will die trying.

[CruelVerdad]

Well, I think that latin american countries are more probable to get into a socialist gobernment. As for the country where I´m living, Ecuador, I don´t think so... Because now our president is an ex.coronel, who is very corrupt and has a poor education. NOT a true leader! And I´m sure, he is 110% in favour of the US.
Let´s see what happens...

[Show me the Money]

i think such a country must be, when in europe:
a) small
B) have a declining economy and a (sudden) right-wing government which has failed.
c) has an politically open-minded culture.

...maybe belgium! (theye against the war, so point c would count. they are small and politically balance is always fragile).

[Dr. Rosenpenis]

Quote: from Show me the Money on 6:33 pm on Feb. 18, 2003
i think such a country must be, when in europe:
a) small
B) have a declining economy and a (sudden) right-wing government which has failed.
c) has an politically open-minded culture.

...maybe belgium! (theye against the war, so point c would count. they are small and politically balance is always fragile).

Are you suggesting that Belgium has a declining economy? Belgium is one of the wealthies nations in Europe.

[Dr. Rosenpenis]

Quote: from redstar2000 on 10:21 pm on Feb. 17, 2003
France, followed more or less immediately by Germany, Italy and possibly Spain...with most of the EU to follow.

Why? Because if Marx was right, the most advanced capitalist countries are "closest in time" to genuine communist revolution.


I believe that Marx might have been reffering to industrial development of a capitalist nation. I suspect a third-world nation will fall to communism before any first-world nations do. What do North Americans have to fight for? Americans are not undergoing any oppression that they are aware of, why would they join a revolution? Perhaps you are reffering to some Western European nations like France, which you mentioned. France, as well as other Western European nations are much more socialy advanced that the US, though I do not think that they would join a revolution. The communistic efforts of a revolution will only work if the majority of the populace involved are members of the proletariat class.

Perhaps some African nation, or a S. American nation.

[redstar2000]

Victorcommie, I'm well aware of the Maoist hypothesis that the "first world" countries "have no proletariat" in the Marxist sense.

I think the hypothesis is rubbish!

A "prosperous" working class is still a working class in the Marxist sense; it continues to sell its labor power and continues to produce surplus value (profit) for the capitalist class. And although it's true that Marx and Engels concentrated on industrial workers as the most advanced part of the working class, that cannot be construed to mean that they would have ignored their own materialistic analysis and regarded clerical, service, and information workers as "bourgeois".

The working classes in the western members of the E.U. are, from what I have read, less patriotic/nationalistic, less religious, etc. than the working classes in poor countries. They also possess a long tradition of class struggle and have many fewer illusions about capitalist society than many new industrial workers in backward countries.

None of this is to say that communist revolution is guaranteed in Western Europe...but if capitalism there undergoes the kind of crisis that it has undergone in Argentina, for example, then my expectations are high, particularly for France, Germany, and Italy.

On the other hand, I would agree that the prospects for communist revolution in the U.S. are extremely bleak for a special reason: we here are well into a period of popular neo-fascism...and while one can debate whether or not things will change soon in that regard (I am not optimistic), the question of revolution in the United States is presently in the realm of fantasy and likely to remain there for some time to come.

Of course, it is certainly possible that revolutions will take place in other countries that may (sincerely) call themselves socialist or communist...but we all should be aware by now of the problems that such revolutions inevitably encounter. Whenever the working class is a distinct minority, it and its party(s) end up ruling in a dictatorial or quasi-dictatorial fashion over a huge number of peasants...this is clearly the case in Cuba and Vietnam today.

And what do those peasants really want? They want the chance to be capitalists. And their numbers and desires ultimately prevail (the USSR, China, Eastern Europe, etc.).

(This is not to "blame" peasants; they are reacting to their class situation exactly as Marx and Engels predicted they would...the successful peasant becomes a merchant and the successful merchant becomes a capitalist. That is what is supposed to happen.)

Even Brazil, the "best case scenario" for a revolution outside of western Europe, is a dubious bet. Lula and his party are already kissing I.M.F./World Bank ass...and thus far, there's been little protest.

I should also mention Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand...all of these countries are probably materially advanced enough to support an effective socialist revolution--but I frankly don't know enough about them to make any political predictions.

:cool:

[Eastside Revolt]

I don't see a point in having a leftist revolution anywhere except for Europe or the United States

[Pete]

I think Canada will, in 5 years, be a haven for Revolutionaries or Reactionaries. No more middle ground for us after Chretien, the stablizing force, leaves. I hope that the Left steps in and helps, along with all the union and party workers, prepare this country for revolution.

[Aleksander Nordby]

I think there will be a revolution in many latin american country.

[Eastside Revolt]

If we have a revolution in Canada, that'll give the Americans a reason to invade, and it would be a long war that we would lose. It's better if we work at slowly bringing things left here while trying full-blast to wake up the American people, and spark a revolution there.

[Pete]

The long drawn out war could be used by our comrades in the States to overthrow the Corporate Puppet Regimes (the plutocrats). Turmoil in Canada will lead to turmoil in America. Talking to Larissa and someone else made me realize that the revolution should start HERE in the first world.

[Eastside Revolt]

You may be right, but you're absolutely trippin' if you think it'll happen in less than 15 years. We would have to build plans and solidarity, which we haven't even started to do either yet.

[Pete]

Five years. Ten max. I know very little about planning revolution, but who does? The first thing to do is probally create a nation wide universal union. And then merge all the workers parties and subject them to the national union. That should create the atmosphere of national unity, but international would also be needed.

[Eastside Revolt]

All right. Well then what kind of work are you into?

[Pete]

I am currently employed at a zellars facing and occassionaly stocking shelves. My planned line of work is in the arts (writting and teaching).

[Show me the Money]

Quote: from Victorcommie on 11:52 pm on Feb. 18, 2003

Quote: from Show me the Money on 6:33 pm on Feb. 18, 2003
i think such a country must be, when in europe:
a) small
B) have a declining economy and a (sudden) right-wing government which has failed.
c) has an politically open-minded culture.

...maybe belgium! (theye against the war, so point c would count. they are small and politically balance is always fragile).

Are you suggesting that Belgium has a declining economy? Belgium is one of the wealthies nations in Europe.


Only if you count the many dutch/german/french capitalists who have 'fleed' to belgium because of a horrible sanction called "taxes"!!! :cheesy:

And because the ppl don't pay high taxes the government is lacking capacity to govern.

:angry:

[suffianr]

Funny, but no one mentioned South East Asia. Used to be one of the most communist-prone regions in the Third World.

Oh, I forgot, that was in the Sixties. Now we're harbouring Islamic terrorists, instead.

[Felicia]

Quote: from Umoja on 3:48 am on Feb. 17, 2003
I don't see that happening in Haiti, only because it's way to torn apart to pick up the pieces and form a socialist government, with no infrastructure to develop.

I would disagree with that. Their once great leader Aristide turned out to be another lazy arse. He hasn't done much to help the poor... like I believe he's promised to do. I can't speak for the people of Haiti but I can say that I think that they are very upset at the way that things are going in their country right now, and the way it's been going for a longtime. I agree, it is torn apart, but what makes you think that a socialist government isn't the way to go? It would be difficult, yes, but worth trying just the same. Yeah, the infrastructure is shitty, maybe one main road, and I think a train, but I'm not sure. And there's only 2% forest cover over the whole country, which would make conventional guerrilla warfare nearly impossible, it's all mountain and dirt, well, except for the national "protected" forests. But there are only 4 of those and 2 of them are itty bitty. Oh wait.... am I just argueing against myself??? *blushes* Well, either way, I think that socialism is the only thing that can help them at this point. For the worlds first black republic, they sure haven't held the power over themselves and they have a thirst for it now, and I support whatever measures must be taken.

[Show me the Money]

..belgium, germany, luxembourg, holland!!!! ; the entire Benelux + Germany will once be revolutionized in a good socialist way!!

[Show me the Money]

..or maybe just an American country... who knows??

[PeArCeY]

I believe that the only 2 likely continents to fall to communism would be South America or Africa. People have to remeber though... The world has seen communism many times and every time fail, people WILL hesitate before doing anything leading them towards communism.

[革命者]

just think about it..: WHAT ABOUT THE MOST UNSTABLE REGION'S MOST UNSTABLE COUNTRY....... ISRAEL!!

¿porqué no? It's so simple!!

:cool:

(Edited by Scotty at 11:45 am on Feb. 28, 2003)

[Eastside Revolt]

America is fairly unstable too.

[CheViveToday]

Scotty, if Israel is so unstable and so succeptable to revolution, don't you think the Palestinians and other Muslims would have taken it over by now?

[Towelly]

I`m surprised nobody has mentioned South Africa yet. It would appear to me to hold the most potential for at least a radical movement.

[革命者]

Quote: from CheViveToday on 5:04 am on Mar. 1, 2003
Scotty, if Israel is so unstable and so succeptable to revolution, don't you think the Palestinians and other Muslims would have taken it over by now?


I think revolution is only a matter of time, CheViveToday...
altough i think such a revolution must be suppoted by a simultaneous ®evolution in America... so obviously this will never happen under any Bush-clan-regimes.

[革命者]

Quote: from redcanada on 4:17 am on Mar. 1, 2003
America is fairly unstable too.


indeed.

[Blibblob]

The way people are now rallying around the government, maybe. But economically, hell no.

[Pete]

"Scotty, if Israel is so unstable and so succeptable to revolution, don't you think the Palestinians and other Muslims would have taken it over by now? "

There is this country called America who allowed many Jewish refugee's to enter their country in the 30's and 40's, leaving them with a large and wealthy Jewish population. In America large +WEALTHY = Power, hell WEALTHY = POWER you don't even have to be a large minority. So with Zionists with a large amount of influence America pushed the creation of the Jewish State and sells them weapons of all sorts are catergories.

[Blibblob]

HEY!! if they sell them weapons.... why wont they sell me weapons...

[Pete]

Because you are a communist and could also be a terrorist!

[Blibblob]

they dont know that... SHH!!!

[CheViveToday]

My point was that I don't believe Israel is very succeptable to revolution at this time. The fact that the U.S. sells them weapons, only strengthens my point. It makes revolution less likely.

[Sol]

As for "revolution"- South America. The indigenous peoples and the working poor (ie: damn near everyone) are pissed off and they ain't gonna take it anymore. Least, not without a fight. It's the only place on the planet where there's a revolutionary atmosphere. And with the resources in the area... makes me drool just thinking about it.

I think our best hope though is Europe. Look at Scandinavia, at a lot of the economic policies in place in Britain and on the continent. Shit, we're halfway there! What's needed is a large-scale, well organized, popular campaign as hasn't been seen since around the turn of the century.

But I think the chances of the EU nations idealogically confronting the US is next to nill. And without foreign support, any revolution in the Third World would have a hell of a time.

[RedPirate]

I say Chile....

[Show me the Money]

israel

[Pulang Mandirigma]

how about considerin my country, the Philippines, although the party is on defensive strategy, but on the years to come, revolution is more favorable...and the fascist state will go down on its knees...and after the Nat'l Democratic Rev will be followed by the Socialist state building...

[Pete]

Welcome Pulang...I have heard rumors that the Americans (who used to own your country) have sent 1500 troops in to your country. Could you say why?

[Pulang Mandirigma]

good day!
can i change 1500 to 3000 US Green Beret? and that is the actual number of the US troops..
there front or agenda is to pulverize the homegrown bandits(Abu Sayaff)which composed not more than 500 individuals...the main agenda for this or the reason is to stop the revolutionary forces, bec. our own mercenary forces cannot defeat the guerilla war waged by the NPA, they asked helped from the fuckin Imperialist with the command of the monster(GWB), and the homemade monsters (0ur president, and her soldiers) even if they would deploy 60,000 US troops side by side with there mercenary counterparts, they cannot defeat the red forces that scattered all-over the archipelago...
it can only ripen the situation to wage a revolution if they would make a move such like that...they should learn from Vietnam...that is why they are conducting a joint military exercise under the name of Balikatan(shoulder to shoulder) Exercise...so that they can practice the terrain and the jungle warfare...but they cannot win the hearts of our fellowmen who suffered from the hands of this white mercenaries a century ago...they should learn also the history of the Philippine Society before they bring their war on our land...that is the best weapon of the revolution the masses...it is only the masses who can defeat the enemy...with the guidance of the party and MLM theory...

LONG LIVE THE SPIRIT OF COMMUNISM!!!

[Pete]

Thank you! I am intersted in this now. Very. Che told the poeple of the Tricontental to make thier own Vietnam to suck the imperialists into, buecause he accruately predicted that they will never learn.

I hope your comrades (in mind if not body) fight on!

[CheViveToday]

Welcome to Che-Lives Pulang! Yes, the situation in the Philippines seems very interesting. Please keep us updated! I'm glad to see that you support "The Red Forces" and you have confidence in them. Keep a good distance from those rotten green berets. ;)

[Pulang Mandirigma]

ok, and thank you!

And I will give you updates on our local insurgents...please click on here http://www.philippinerevolution.org/index.shtml

[Pete]

When did the Phillipines gain independance from America exactly?

[chamo]

Nepal, deep economic poverty and alot of crazy happenings.

[Vladimir]

Lads, i hope we all know that socialism cannot work in one country, when all the other ones are capitalist. It creates massive economic problems with trade etc and Mr. Economy will go down the drain. So all countries must be united under socialism or the majority or just the wealthy ones (US, EU etc)......so this thread is irrelevant.

Prometheus/IrishGuevara

[DisruptiveBehaviour]

I have to agree with CrazyPete (I didn't know you were Canadian too!) and say that the revolution is best to take place in the First World. And further I believe it should take place in Canada, although there's no real hope, with the "Liberal" Party seizing control of the country.

[Guardia Bolivariano]

Quote: from CrazyPete on 8:10 pm on Mar. 5, 2003
When did the Phillipines gain independance from America exactly?


Truman gave the Phillipines It's independance in 1946

[Dirty Jersey]

did anyone see the last elections in france. revolution isnt the issue. they almost elected a socialist. i say france will be socialist within the next fifteen years if they get enough of a push. instead of focusing on how evil america is you guys should focus on france and try to stir the pot a little. if france goes socialist germany will soon follow just as redstar pointed out earlier. i dont know who would turn next though.

[Dr. Rosenpenis]

I don't think a socialist presidency would reach all the goals of Communism.

[Rage298]

The entire world - for obvious-enough reasons.

[MAN with a RED face]

isengard-if saruman will fall

[Dynatos II]

I cant believe nobody said Russia. I think in the next elections the communist party will have the majority of the votes. The communist party is the most popular party in Russia with 25% of the votes during the 1999 Duma elections. Even though it wont be official since the pro-bourgeois parties have a history of rigging elections and the imperialists also have a history of helping them do so. The growing discontent of the masses will eventually lead to a new revolution, or even civil war, in which the Communist party will be victorious do to its overwhelming support from the proletariat. But the Russian communist party is not a communist party at all. Its more of a Stalinist party. Nevertheless it will be an improvement from the Mafia capitalists that control the country today. At this point the communist party will introduce reforms to bring back the planned economy and reform the party itself. The proletariat, having experienced oppressive bureaucratic totalitarianism, will pressure the communist party to introduce democracy and with that the creation of a healthy workers state along the lines of 1917-1923. This time it will be able to survive since Russia is now industrialized and has an educated working class. unlike 1917.

There might be some socialist revolutions in south America but i dont think any of them will be able to survive because western imperialists will probably just knock them down before they have a chance to get on there feet. I cant think of any third world country that could stand up to American imperialism (maybe Brazil).

I do think revolution in Europe is coming soon (20 years or so), but revolution in Russia will happen before that. If revolution in Russia doesnt happen then it will take a little longer for the European workers to act.

[hazard]

which country?

EVERY COUNTRY

[Iepilei]

I tend to agree that Russia might experience revolution again, possibly sometime soon.

Why? The vast majority of Russians are living in conditions now, which are worse than any the had lived in before. Russia, it's people atleast, are still very red. Looking at the way the world is working now - I could imagine Germany, Italy, and possibly France following suit shortly after.

Italian workers are already forming massive strikes in protest to government actions. Blockading truck routes, etc... it's a glorious sight.

[IPkurd]

"Kurdistan" will if parts of iran,iraq, turkey,syria come into control of the various left wing guerilla's. ok ok its not likely but im hopeong that will happen in my country

[Kilian]

What we need is an international revolution. A socialist revolution cannot survive in one country
.The working class is a subjective force in the revolution. revolution for example in Cuba partially failed because the revolutionary force came from outside. All of us here must join a truly revolutionary party and organize a global revolution. Every like-minded socialists must unite. We must leave the chains of the old USSR totalitarian system behind us.Worker's Power.Revolution not reform. Internationalism. Full equality and Liberation. Socialism from below.
We, all the people living on this earth are the revolutionary force!

[BRIN]

i'd have to say columbia,ever since america started sending in soliders the cocain trade in columbia has trippled.plus with americas dying ecconomy they soon won't be able to give the columbian goverment 200 billion dollars worth of wepons

[MAN with a RED face]

USA or Japan-they are "ripe" for the social tranformation

[革命者]

can't be a country with an party coalition governing.