Cuba after Castro

[Tommy-K]

Let's face it, Fidel isn't getting any younger, and his recent bout of illness petrified a lot of people (inculding myself) into thinking that this was the end.

However, he's slowly being nursed back to health, and has made a couple of TV appearances.

Even so, the man is 81 years old. Pretty soon the time will come when he can't fight illness anymore.

So what will happen to Cuba once Castro bites the dust?

Obviously the US were humiliated in the Bay of Pigs invasion, but with Castro out of the way, who's to say they won't try again? Will Cuba ever find a young leader with the same enthusiasm and determination as Fidel? If not, I fear that the US will take advantage of the weakened system to mount an invasion, overthrow the revolutionary government and install a fascist dictator (just like they did in most other Latin American nations) and all that Fidel Castro worked so hard for will be vanquished.

[Ismail]

It seems like his brother will be a good successor. Of course, his brother is 76 years old, and if Castro lives to, say, 90, Raúl will be around 85. Not exactly a strong, healthy leader.

Assuming Raúl lives a long life, I'm pretty sure he will be able to continue the activities of his brother. If not, then, well, I have no idea. Would be interesting to see who comes after Fidel and Raúl are gone, though.

[Avtomat_Icaro]

I think that Fidel has probably worked out a back up plan for the longer term and not just count on Raul to fix all this.

[pastradamus]

Hmmmm...I suspect the Pentegon & White house has plans for a post-Castro Cuba. Hopefully they don't come to fruition.

[Avtomat_Icaro]

The US has been planning a take over of Cuba ever since the Cuban Revolution. However I am curious to see what will happen, I doubt the US would be able to launch a full scale military attack without provoking lets say Venezuela and the Cuban people in general.

[NewEast]

There are more than just two people, Fidel and Raul, in Cuba. The Cuban people will never stand for a US assault on their revolution, independence and nation. The Cuban people have demonstrated their willingness to defend their revolution against imperialism. There are also hundreds of thousands around the world who would come to the defence of Cuba in international brigades.

[Avtomat_Icaro]

Hmm I know there are more people out there than Fidel and Raul, but who? I doubt Cuba would turn into a state of total collective leadership. People will follow a strong individual (such as Fidel) there will be a void of power after Fidel's death and there will be those willing to fill up that void and I doubt that all of them are doing it fully for the Cuban people/revolution but for their own personal gains.

As for the international brigades, where were these when the US invaded Grenada, or sent the Contras into Nicaragua...we see some international figures in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Im curious to see how this would be in Cuba, would it be similar to the Spanish Civil War?

[NewEast]

There was not the same sort of international awareness concerning Nicaragua. There were only isolated solidarity groups that weren't exactly committed to the revolutionary process there, whereas one only need see the thousands of work and solidarity brigades going to Cuba annually to get a good idea of the sheer level of revolutionary solidarity with Cuba today.

As for Cuba's leadership after the Castros-
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/

otherwise, take your pick-
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/alarcon_th.jpg
Ricardo Alarcón de Quesada
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/almeida_th.jpg
Juan Almeida Bosque
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/balaguer_th.jpg
José Ramón Balaguer Cabrera
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/campa_th.jpg
Concepción Campa Huergo
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/casas_th.jpg
Julio Casas Regueiro

and so on and so forth. Any of these comrades could be the next president after Raul. I'm betting it will be Juan Almeida, unless Raul outlives him.

Personal gains? Nonsense. An example of a government member who took gifts from a foreign ambassador comes to mind. For accepting leather couches and money, he was expelled from the Communist Party for a couple of years and removed from his post. There is no room for people with only their own personal gain at heart in Cuban politics.

[Avtomat_Icaro]

Personal gains? Nonsense. An example of a government member who took gifts from a foreign ambassador comes to mind. For accepting leather couches and money, he was expelled from the Communist Party for a couple of years and removed from his post. There is no room for people with only their own personal gain at heart in Cuban politics.
Hmm sounds like a very naive statement to me...no offense meant.

[NewEast]

Certainly, if you have studied the Cuban political system extensively, please, be sure to make a detailed statement proving the corrupted and deformed nature of the Cuban worker's state. Otherwise, don't make such off-hand comments so freely.

[Wanted Man]

Originally posted by [email protected] 09, 2007 05:17 pm

Personal gains? Nonsense. An example of a government member who took gifts from a foreign ambassador comes to mind. For accepting leather couches and money, he was expelled from the Communist Party for a couple of years and removed from his post. There is no room for people with only their own personal gain at heart in Cuban politics.
Hmm sounds like a very naive statement to me...no offense meant.
Well, NewEast certainly shows that he knows a bit about the Cuban political system. Judging by your posts, you are rather ignorant about it. But I suppose if you want to perpetuate the myth of Cuba being some sort of "monarchy", it doesn't seem strange at all to make such dubious claims about the "succession" as you have in this thread.

[CubaSocialista]

Originally posted by [email protected] 09, 2007 04:10 pm
There was not the same sort of international awareness concerning Nicaragua. There were only isolated solidarity groups that weren't exactly committed to the revolutionary process there, whereas one only need see the thousands of work and solidarity brigades going to Cuba annually to get a good idea of the sheer level of revolutionary solidarity with Cuba today.

As for Cuba's leadership after the Castros-
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/

otherwise, take your pick-
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/alarcon_th.jpg
Ricardo Alarcón de Quesada
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/almeida_th.jpg
Juan Almeida Bosque
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/balaguer_th.jpg
José Ramón Balaguer Cabrera
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/campa_th.jpg
Concepción Campa Huergo
http://www.pcc.cu/pccweb/glosario/personalidades/images/casas_th.jpg
Julio Casas Regueiro

and so on and so forth. Any of these comrades could be the next president after Raul. I'm betting it will be Juan Almeida, unless Raul outlives him.

Personal gains? Nonsense. An example of a government member who took gifts from a foreign ambassador comes to mind. For accepting leather couches and money, he was expelled from the Communist Party for a couple of years and removed from his post. There is no room for people with only their own personal gain at heart in Cuban politics.
Judging from my knowledge, after Raul and Fidel (hopefully a healthy, long time from now), Ricardo Alarcon, or Felipe Perez Roque would be viable considerations for the leadership of the Republic of Cuba.

Personally, though I am an American, if I suspected the US would invade Cuba, I would happily give my life to help defend the revolution there. It is a critical socialist figure and beacon for the third world, and, by extension, humanity as a whole.

[NewEast]

People talk a lot about how charismatic Castro is, how vital he is to the Cuban Revolution. Well, Ho Chi Minh was important to the Vietnamese Revolution, socialist Vietnam didn't unravel overnight when he died. Charisma is a fantastic trait to have, but it is not important. Only a handful of parties around the world have Blade Nzimandes, Nina Andreevas and Fidel Castros, most are operating quite well with 'ordinary' leaders. I bet people here would be hard pressed naming Vietnam's current leader.

[Hegemonicretribution]

I suppose that considering a more overtly political populace; and the engagement between the average citizen and the communist party, that finding a decent leader would be more viable there than most places.

I also think that without Castro it could be time to allow progress in new ways..

[temp918273]

If serious changes aren't made, the average Cuban is fucked either way...
If someone similar to Castro comes to power they get a few more decades of the same old shit. However if the party is removed from power, they're most likely going to be treated to neoliberal economic reforms and their society turned into a tourism economy much like it was in the past and many similar nations still are.

[People's Councillor]

Originally posted by [email protected] 11, 2007 01:45 pm
If serious changes aren't made, the average Cuban is fucked either way...
If someone similar to Castro comes to power they get a few more decades of the same old shit. However if the party is removed from power, they're most likely going to be treated to neoliberal economic reforms and their society turned into a tourism economy much like it was in the past and many similar nations still are.
Naive to say the least. Cuba before the revolution was a sugar-exporing economy, not a tourism economy. The Castros have in the past had an extremely contentious relationship with the Communist Party, and carried on the revolution with its indifference and sometimes its obstruction. And I'd like to know exactly what the "same old shit" is, since you don't define it.

[temp918273]

Originally posted by People's [email protected] 11, 2007 03:35 pm
Naive to say the least. Cuba before the revolution was a sugar-exporing economy, not a tourism economy. The Castros have in the past had an extremely contentious relationship with the Communist Party, and carried on the revolution with its indifference and sometimes its obstruction. And I'd like to know exactly what the "same old shit" is, since you don't define it.
A very large portion of the economy was devoted to tourism and a lot of the wealthy people in urban centers were hotel and concert hall owners. But you're right, they were primarily a sugar-exporting economy, however most of the profits did not remain in the country.

By same old shit, I mean the average cuban will continue to be alienated from their own productive labor working for the monolithic bureaucracy while having little to no democratic control over society.

[Wanted Man]

Also, to copy CdL:

Cuba after Fidel dies: Thread 1 (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=57922&hl=cuba+castro+dies), Thread 2 (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=54445&hl=), Thread 3 (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=30002&hl=), Thread 4 (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=27989&hl=).