S&E link, reading & watching suggestions

[Sentinel]

This is the new thread in which to present and suggest any web link, documentary, movie, book, article, or interview which concerns what this particular forum is about: the environment, technology, and science including sociology and psychology, and which you would like to recommend to the comrades here, but maybe don't want to start an entire discussion thread about.

In other words, don't start new threads consisting of merely a link, but no proper debate-opening post -- this is *the* thread for link suggestions!

This thread is meant to spawn discussions though, which may be split to form threads of their own on this forum, if they're constructive and serious (or, alternatively, be thrown into the trashcan or moved into Chit Chat if they're shit/non-serious :lol:) in order to keep this thread a readable resource of literature tips, article suggestions, film presentations and links to videos, speeches, documentaries etc.

Any personal reviews would be awesome but aren't by any means necessary. See also the previous (http://www.revleft.com/index.php?showtopic=30929) similar thread (which I now have unpinned and closed due to inactivity). So, let's start the knowledge exchange! :)

***

I'll kick this off with links to a Richard Dawkins interview about his book The God Delusion which I intend to get my hands on as soon as possible:

Part 1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe7yf9GJUfU&mode=related&search=)

Part 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR_z85O0P2M&mode=related&search=)

[chimx]

Can I suggest that if a post in this thread spawns a split discussion thread, you edit the post in this thread to provide a link to the split discussion? nice idea.

[Sentinel]

Originally posted by [email protected] 15, 2007 06:46 am
Can I suggest that if a post in this thread spawns a split discussion thread, you edit the post in this thread to provide a link to the split discussion? nice idea.
Sure, why not, I was actually planning to do something along those lines. :) I will also post links to topics which may be of interest, and might even merge topics or quote posts from other threads into this one (with the author's permission, in borderline cases).

[Mujer Libre]

Just off the top of my head, here are a few suggestions. I'll probably be back with more later.

Jared Diamond- Guns, Germs and Steel- a fantastic refutation of racist and colonialist ideas. Also a really good documentary. Also by Diamond Collapse and The Third Chimpanzee.

I just finished Richard Dawkins' The Ancestor's Tale, which I really enjoyed. It traces human evolution using the format of Chaucer's Canterbury Tales.

And to plug my favourite teacher ever, John Waller, his book Leaps in the Dark: The Making of Scientific Reputations is really entertaining and deals with the history of scientific discoveries. He's also written other titles on the history of science.

Will be back with more later. :)

[Comrade J]

"A Short History Of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson

To steal Amazon's review -

What on earth is Bill Bryson doing writing a book of popular science--A Short History of Almost Everything? Largely, it appears, because this inquisitive, much-travelled writer realised, while flying over the Pacific, that he was entirely ignorant of the processes that created, populated and continue to maintain the vast body of water beneath him.

In fact, it dawned on him that "I didn't know the first thing about the only planet I was ever going to live on". The questions multiplied: What is a quark? How can anybody know how much the Earth weighs? How can astrophysicists (or whoever) claim to describe what happened in the first gazillionth of a nanosecond after the Big Bang? Why can't earthquakes be predicted? What makes evolution more plausible than any other theory? In the end, all these boiled down to a single question--how do scientists do science? To this subject Bryson devoted three years of his life, reading books and journals and pestering the people who know (or at least argue about it); and we non-scientists should be pretty grateful to him for passing his findings on to us.

Broadly, his investigations deal with seven topics, all of enormous interest and significance: the origins of the universe; the gradual historical discovery of the size and age of the earth (and the beginnings of the awesome notion of deep time); relativity and quantum theory; the present and future threats to life and the planet; the origins and history of life (dinosaurs, mass extinctions and all); and the evolution of man. Within each of these, he looks at the history of the subject, its development into a modern discipline and the frameworks of theory that now support it. This is a pretty broad brief (life, the universe and everything, in fact), and it's a mark of Bryson's skill that he is able to carve a clear path through the thickets of theory and controversy that infest all these disciplines, all the while maintaining a cracking pace and a fairly judicious tone without obvious longueurs or signs of haste. Even readers fairly familiar with some or all of these areas o! f discourse are likely to learn from A Short History. If not, they will at least be amused--the tone throughout is agreeable, mingling genuine awe with a mild facetiousness that often rises to wit.

One compelling theme that appears again and again is the utter unpredictability of the universe, despite all that we think we know about it. Nervous page-turners may care to omit the sensational chapters on the possible ways in which it all might end in disaster--Bryson enumerates with cheerful relish the kind of event that makes you want to climb under the bedclothes: undetectable asteroid colliding with the earth; superheated magma chamber erupting in your back garden; ebola carrier getting off a plane in London or New York; the HIV virus mutating to prevent its destruction in the mosquito's digestive system. Indeed, the chief theme of this sprightly book is the miraculous unlikeliness, in a universe ruled by randomness, of stability and equilibrium--of which one result is ourselves and the complex, fragile planet we inhabit.

Definetly worth reading as a general background to a lot of subject areas, also a good one to recommend to the nutcases who think the world is 6000 years old.

[Cult of Reason]

This film might interest you. It is called "The Great Global Warming Swindle".

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=...Warming+Swindle (http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=4499562022478442170&q=The+Great+Global+Warming+Swindle)

Please don't flame me. :ph34r:

[Mujer Libre]

Richard Dawkins on the O'Reilly Factor (http://youtube.com/watch?v=9fG_g_3noh0) talking about The God Delusion, which I'm reading at the moment and it's amazing. I enjoyed the forbearing smile Dawkins gave O'Reilly as he opened with the statement that atheism requires more faith than religion, coupled with the anthropic principle. This is right before being dismantled by Dawkins, of course. Pwned.

If you're into anatomy there's this German documentary series called Autopsy, which is basically an anatomy class with cameras. It can be quite gory though (with dissections), so it's not fo everyone. Best watched with your copy of Moore and Dalley's Anatomy handy. :P

[Comrade J]

Another good book that anyone can understand (I think this sort of stuff is more important, as ordinary people not educated in Science are not going to understand long physical equations and so on)

Big Bang - by Simon Singh

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0007162200.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

Review from Play.com
The bestselling author of Fermat's Last Theorem and The Code Book tells the story of the brilliant minds that deciphered the mysteries of the Big Bang. A fascinating exploration of the ultimate question: how was our universe created? Albert Einstein once said: 'The most incomprehensible thing about the universe is that it is comprehensible.' Simon Singh believes geniuses like Einstein are not the only people able to grasp the physics that govern the universe. We all can. As well as explaining what the Big Bang theory actually is and why cosmologists believe it is an accurate description of the origins of the universe, this book is also the fascinating story of the scientists who fought against the established idea of an eternal and unchanging universe. Simon Singh, renowned for making difficult ideas much less daunting than they first seem, is the perfect guide for this journey. Everybody has heard of the Big Bang Theory. But how many of us can actually claim to understand it?With characteristic clarity and a narrative peppered with anecdotes and personal histories of those who have struggled to understand creation, Simon Singh has written the story of the most important theory ever.

-----------------------------

Another superb book, everyone should read this.

The Selfish Gene - by Richard Dawkins

http://www.civilbrights.net/static/a/16/74/selfish-gene.jpg

Review from Amazon.com:
Inheriting the mantle of revolutionary biologist from Darwin, Watson, and Crick, Richard Dawkins forced an enormous change in the way we see ourselves and the world with the publication of The Selfish Gene. Suppose, instead of thinking about organisms using genes to reproduce themselves, as we had since Mendel's work was rediscovered, we turn it around and imagine that "our" genes build and maintain us in order to make more genes. That simple reversal seems to answer many puzzlers which had stumped scientists for years, and we haven't thought of evolution in the same way since.

Why are there miles and miles of "unused" DNA within each of our bodies? Why should a bee give up its own chance to reproduce to help raise her sisters and brothers? With a prophet's clarity, Dawkins told us the answers from the perspective of molecules competing for limited space and resources to produce more of their own kind. Drawing fascinating examples from every field of biology, he paved the way for a serious re-evaluation of evolution. He also introduced the concept of self-reproducing ideas, or memes, which (seemingly) use humans exclusively for their propagation. If we are puppets, he says, at least we can try to understand our strings. --Rob Lightner --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

[Comrade J]

If you're looking for explanations on the origin of the universe in layman's terms, then this is awesome.

http://archive.gamespy.com/comics/dorktower/images/global/A-Brief-History-of-Time.jpg

Review from Amazon.com:
Stephen Hawking, one of the most brilliant theoretical physicists in history, wrote the modern classic A Brief History of Time to help nonscientists understand the questions being asked by scientists today: Where did the universe come from? How and why did it begin? Will it come to an end, and if so, how? Hawking attempts to reveal these questions (and where we're looking for answers) using a minimum of technical jargon. Among the topics gracefully covered are gravity, black holes, the Big Bang, the nature of time, and physicists' search for a grand unifying theory. This is deep science; these concepts are so vast (or so tiny) as to cause vertigo while reading, and one can't help but marvel at Hawking's ability to synthesize this difficult subject for people not used to thinking about things like alternate dimensions. The journey is certainly worth taking, for, as Hawking says, the reward of understanding the universe may be a glimpse of "the mind of God."

---------------------

I haven't actually watched this documentary, though I keep meaning to get it. It sounds pretty good anyway, and the reviews it gets are brilliant.

Life Beyond Earth - by Timothy Ferris

http://www.lauralee.com/images/covers/0780631323.jpg
Review from Amazon.com (of the book, though it has the same script):
Rock-solid science writer Timothy Ferris has covered this ground before. In the two-hour PBS documentary that he wrote and narrated--which shares the title, text, and many of the images of this generously illustrated book--Ferris tackles two age-old questions about the potentially universal nature of life: Are we alone, and, if not, is anybody listening?

He's quick to warn that Life Beyond Earth isn't a "textbook," that its "aim is not so much to provide answers as to help improve the quality of the questions we all ask." Given that caveat, what Ferris has put together here is a very approachable--and certainly very beautiful--survey of the evolution of life on Earth, and the implications of that for possibly finding tenacious pockets of life elsewhere, maybe even in our own solar system.

Ferris begins with the twin assumptions that we know now that life is tougher than we ever imagined, and that we "should never underestimate the scope of human ignorance." From there, he uses creatively illustrated examples to explain everything from Earth's geological and biological timeline (with a Porsche C4S on 5 kilometers of salt flats) to why Fermi's question might deserve a good-hearted poke (as he waits for an uninvited lobster to crawl onto his plate at a dinner table in Florence). Ferris has also pulled together scores of gorgeous photographs from Hubble and other sources, eye-opening if brief accounts of explorers past and present (both human and robotic), and short observations from scientists in multiple disciplines.

Unless you're already well-read in the subject, you'll likely find that Ferris achieves his goal. Life Beyond Earth doesn't just raise questions, it raises particularly interesting ones that you might not have even thought to ask.

[Comrade J]

Couple of documentaries people might be interested in watching -

BBC Horizon - Parallel Universes (http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=4183875433858020781&q=bbc+horizon)

BBC Horizon - Global Dimming
Part 1 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/BBC%2BHorizon/video/x1meoe_global-dimming-1-of-3)
Part 2 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/BBC%2BHorizon/video/x1merl_global-dimming-2-of-3)
Part 3 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/BBC%2BHorizon/video/x1meum_global-dimming-3-of-3)

'Threads' (http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-2023790698427111488&hl=en-GB) - a 1984 docudrama showing what it might be like if there was a nuclear attack on Britain

Ancient Astronauts (http://www.veoh.com/videos/v307782KCWWtYtf) - about possible visits from 'Ancient Astronauts' to the Egyptians. Absolute bollocks, in my opinion.

BBC 'Planet Earth' Episodes - Narrated by the legend that is David Attenborough

Pole To Pole pt.1 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1ige2_bbc-planet-earthpole-to-pole-part-1)
Pole To Pole pt.2 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1igdu_bbc-planet-earthpole-to-pole-part-2)
Pole To Pole pt.3 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1igdx_bbc-planet-earthpole-to-pole-part-3)

Jungles pt.1 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1il9k_bbc-planet-earth-jungles-part-1)
Jungles pt.2 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1il9u_bbc-planet-earth-jungles-part-2)
Jungles pt.3 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1il8u_bbc-planet-earth-jungles-part-3)

Great Plains pt.1 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1il93_bbc-planet-earthgreatplains-part-1)
Great Plains pt.2 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1il97_bbc-planet-earthgreatplains-part-2)
Great Plains pt.3 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1il9e_bbc-planet-earthgreatplains-part-3)

Caves pt.1 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1ikjj_bbc-planet-earthcaves-part-1)
Caves pt.2 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1iim7_bbc-planet-earthcaves-part-2)
Caves pt.3 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1iilo_bbc-planet-earth-caves-part-3)

Ice World pt.1 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1ikl2_bbc-planet-earthiceworld-part-1)
Ice World pt.2 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1ikl7_bbc-planet-earthiceworld-part-2)
Ice World pt.3 (http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%5BBBC%5DPlanet%2BEarth/video/x1ikkz_bbc-planet-earthiceworld-part-3)

[Red Tung]

This post and the one beneath were merged here by me -- in the future, if you merely wish to share a link with us, please do so in this thread. The video Red Tung links to is entitled Technology and the human race. -- Sentinel

Exponential change in everything from demographics to technology.
The pace of change is accelerating.

Shift Happens (http://youtube.com/watch?v=L2DGI59jOF0)

[abbielives!]

Richard Dawkins: Nice guys finish first
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzeCn02l_Rw...foshop%2Eorg%2F (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzeCn02l_Rw&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fnews%2Einfoshop%2Eorg%2F)

[abbielives!]

The three below posts, containing links to websites about peak oil, were merged into this thread by me. A discussion thread on the subject is most welcome on this forum, but is not likely to emerge in a thread without a proper opening post. Once again, if you're only going to post a link to a website, do it in this thread. -- Sentinel

whatcha all think of it?

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/

[Janus]

Peak oil (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/lofiversion/index.php/t22958-20.html)
Peak oil (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=18481)
Peak oil (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/lofiversion/index.php/t49609.html)

Based on current estimates, our known oil reserves will be used up in 30-50 years but one would also assume that we would find new reserves by then. Obviously, oil is a finite and nonrenewable resource and it will be used up at some point, it's just that no one is exactly sure when. And based on the ability of capitalism to change and recover as seen by all our previous oil crises, I would think that it will be able to get around this potential future problem as well.

[Comrade-Z]

If you are at all interested in issues of oil depletion, environmentalism, renewable energy, etc. (even if you aren't convinced of the urgency and/or reality of peaking oil production), I highly recommend that you check out theoildrum.com. That site has some of the most intelligent, well-researched, and level-headed articles on peak oil that I have seen so far. Very little of the usual apocalypse-mongering (except when it is backed up by lots of evidence--and speculations are usually qualified and articulated explicitly as such). Nor is there much cornucopian obfuscation, either. Check it out!

I particularly recommend the following articles:

Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part One - "There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously"
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2409#more

"Peak Oil" - Why Smart Folks Disagree - Part II
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2367#more


The question of alternatives is also important. Fortunately, wind power is very promising:

Energy from Wind: A Discussion of the EROI Research
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/17/18478/085

The article below must be the most level-headed and concise summary of peak oil and its implications that I have found so far:

A Letter to My Brother: Peak Oil in Greater Detail
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2444#more


Peak Oil in Greater Detail

“Oil companies should fire all of their geologists and geophysicists and hire economists to replace them since economists are SO much better at finding oil”.
---- Old Saying in the oil patch

Here's some random facts to illustrate how inelastic supply of oil is once an oil province hits it’s “Hubbert Peak” and the super giant fields deplete...
In 1972, Texas produced more oil than ever before, up by 40 percent during the previous 10 years at relatively low prices. In the next 10 years, the price of oil increased ten fold (1000%). Drilling exploded far above any historic record. The success rate plummeted, the number of producing wells increased by only 14%, and oil production dropped back to 1962 levels in 1982.

1962-1972 Texas
Price stable, up slightly
Production +40%

1972-1982 Texas
Price +1000%
Production –28%

2002-2015 Saudi Arabia ?

The last two super giant oil fields found in the world were both found in Kazakhstan. One in the late 1980s and the other in 2000. The last field, Kashagan (expected to produce 1 million b/day at peak) is now thought likely to go into production in 2012 and full production shortly thereafter. (ANWR has about a 5% probability of being a supergiant per one estimate (USGS ?)).

13 years from discovery to production for remaining frontier areas (ANWR is estimated as 10 years from lease to first production and 16 to 20 years till peak production).
25+ years since a super giant was discovered outside Kazakhstan

10% of all the oil ever consumed was consumed in GW Bush’s first term. By some estimates, 10% of all the conventional oil left will be consumed in his second term. This is the power of exponential growth.

EROEI (Energy return on energy invested) is declining for oil production from 100:1 in 1960s (world wide) to 8:1 today. Energy used in oil production is largely oil and natural gas.

Corn ethanol has an EROEI of about 1.3:1, sugar cane ethanol 6 to 8:1 (better with manual harvesting), Canadian tar sands are about 4:1.

At Peak Coal in UK (1913), 18% of the coal produced was used for coal production. EROEI of 5.3:1 not counting the solar energy indirectly fueling the mules.

The Export Land Model is that as oil prices rise, oil exporting nations economies boom and domestic consumption rises rapidly (and domestic markets are shielded from price signals for political reasons). Oil exports thus decline much faster than oil production. In 2006, Russia was a textbook case of Export Land as production rose modestly but exports fell modestly with about a 5% spread. The Finance Minister of Russia predicts the same thing for 2007-2009. The Energy Minister of Russia warns of a production crash after 2010.

Under the partially true and partially false assumption that oil exporters will not restrain domestic oil consumption as their economies boom, and a modest decline in EROEI, world oil exports could decline by half in six years after the second year post-Peak Oil. The impact of such a drop in oil exports, or anything remotely close, would be profound !

Saudi Arabia has redeveloped all of their oil fields with horizontal wells located at the level where the rising water level is expected to one day meet the growing gas cap. This includes Ghawar which is believed to have produced 5 million b/day (~60% of Saudi production) just a few years ago. Another field redeveloped this way, Yibal in Yemen, crashed (-80% in 3 years from memory) when water met gas. Ghawar is larger (170 miles by up to 20 miles wide) and will not crash uniformly like Yibal, but large million b/day sections of Ghawar will crash sequentially and there are repeated rumors that one section of Ghawar has crashed and others are on the verge of collapse.

Saudi Aramco is making heroic efforts to redevelop once abandoned oil fields. One field, Manifa, is considered a sure bet for 900,000 b/day once refineries in SA and China are completed that can handle it’s problematic oil. The other abandoned oil fields are considered unlikely to produce the quoted volumes by experts who once worked on those fields before abandonment but they will produce some oil.

The range of responsible estimates for Saudi maximum production capacity in 2010/2012 vary by 5 million b/day. That is 6% of current total world oil production (unconventional adjusted for energy content) of ~84 million b/day. Given the short term inelasticity of demand for oil, that 5 million b/day is the delta between 80 euros/barrel and 200 euros/barrel. And that delta has profound economic, social and political implications. Thus the concentration upon any hint of the truth beneath the sands.

North Sea oil production (UK, Norway, Denmark) is dropping by –9% to –14% every year (UK will be flat in 2007 as one last oil field comes on-line and it’s production will equal declines elsewhere).

Mexico got 60% of their production (and 100% of their exports) from one field in 2004, Cantarell. Cantarell appears to be in annual decline of –20% to –25% and, with growing domestic consumption, Mexican oil exports should decline from 2+ million b/day to about 250,000 b/day by 1/1/11.

US oil production goes down by about 250,000 b/day every year. We should be flat the year that Thunder Horse finally goes into production (originally scheduled for 2005, now 2009 ?).

Canadian tar sands production is being expanded faster than the infrastructure can support, with projected unit costs doubling and tripling and project after project being delayed. Production should expand to 3 million b/day by 2015 (or 2017) from 1.25 million b/day today. 1/3rd to ½ of this new tar sand production (with low EROEI) will offset declines in Canadian conventional oil production. Resource constraints appear to limit maximum production to 5 million b/day and that level may not be sustainable long term.

Angola, the newest member of OPEC, is a bright spot in world oil production, with a realistic chance of expanding production and exports by 1 million b/day (not true for any other nation except Venezuela and perhaps Canada and Kazakhstan). Over a half million Chinese are working in Angola on a variety of projects and China got the most recent offshore oil lease.

Libya and Algeria appear to have opportunities for modest production increases.

Kuwait is now declining, but at a modest rate of perhaps 4% or 5% per year. The recently democratically elected parliament is advocating major production cuts to make the remaining oil “last 100 years”. “Oil in the ground is better than dollars in a bank”.

Iran appears to be facing an oil export squeeze as their oil production declines and population grows. They will have to depend much more upon natural gas exports. Their aggressive hydroelectric building program gives support to their need for nuclear electricity in order to reduce domestic NG use.

Indonesia is a small oil exporter by value and a small importer by volume. Brazil is debating whether to preserve a small surplus for future domestic use or become a small exporter.

Nigeria, like Iraq, is in such chaos that production forecasts are difficult, but downward pressure seems likely in both. Both have older reservoirs and the Iraqi ones appear to have been badly abused.

Light sweet crude oil has already peaked with no prospect of ever recovering. Depending on one’s definition of “Light sweet”, the peak was in 2000 or 2004. Production is already down well over 10% from the peak.

The most conservative definition of oil, crude plus condensate, has peaked in May 2005 and demand should test if this production level can be equaled in June 2007.

The Oil Drum has looked repeatedly and exhaustively at alternatives. Every approach advocated by the Bush Administration is technical nonsense. Hydrogen, corn & switchgrass ethanol are deeply flawed.

The Oil Drum has also come to the conclusion that there is no one single answer or “silver bullet” exists. Instead a variety of silver BBs will be required.

Sugar cane ethanol will be viable for some domestic demand in tropical nations, and Japan has recently signed up most of Brazil’s near term ethanol export potential (a week before Bush’s visit).

Biosource butanol is an overlooked alternative that more R&D resources should be applied to but it is decades away from 1 million b/day. Algae farm bio-diesel (using special oil rich species) is “interesting” but it is even further away than bio-butanol.

Light hydrocarbons (compressed natural gas, propane, butane) can assume a much larger role in transportation, but their availability is in question (a few years delay in Peaking after Oil). The rule of thumb is that US drilling rigs must increase by 10% every year to keep US NG production stable (we have already peaked and are well into the process of moving NG using industry abroad). NG imports from Canada seem likely to decline as tar sands and other domestic uses increase there and US LNG imports seem unlikely to increase dramatically for a variety of reasons.

None the less, a viable strategy is a dramatic reduction in the use of light hydrocarbons for electrical generation and water heating (with improved insulation offsetting increased space heating demand as NG space heating displaces heating oil) and redirecting these fuels towards transportation. Again, almost a decade may be required for a significant shift (say 5% of US transportation). One silver BB.

Venezuelan asphalt is considered a better resource than Canadian tar sands, but the US either sponsored or supported a failed coup d’etat against the democracy there. Any future development will be done with domestic or Chinese resources. And, like the tar sands, any new production will take a decade from decision to production.

Enhanced oil recovery covers a variety of techniques, and it will certainly result in more oil being produced at much higher prices. Almost all EOR methods have a low EREOI (thus their energy demands mitigate the net production gain) and they rarely have a strong effect on production rates. One could stereotype them as taking a depleted field, that was producing at, say, 5% of it’s peak production and increasing this rate to 10% or 20% of peak at first but more importantly, extending production another one, two or more decades.

The fabled East Texas oil field still produces over 1 million b/day. Unfortunately, it is 99% water.

Every field is different and the effects of tertiary recovery vary significantly. Often there is nothing worth doing at any price, or it will only “pay” if natural gas is cheap and abundant locally.

I think of Enhanced Oil Recovery not as more oil now i.e. higher production rates, but as oil for longer, slower declines in “tail end” production rates.

OTOH, the last oil production left in Prudhoe Bay will rapidly head towards zero when natural gas production starts (Prudhoe Bay uses a combined water and natural gas drive). Although it is heading towards zero already. I found this tidbit about Prudhoe Bay:

The average well production rate was about 546 barrels of oil per day in 2001, 375 barrels per day in 2002, 350 barrels per day in 2003, 317 barrels per day in 2004 and 293 barrels per day in 2005.

Coal-to-Liquids is coming, but the Hirsch report for the Dept of Energy clearly showed that even with “maximum human effort” (i.e. WW II style building, with economics and environmental effects completely ignored) it will take 20 years to build 5 million b/day. 2 to 3 million b/day in 20 years is more likely with “maximum commercial effort”. I could see CTL roughly equaling our continuing reductions in US domestic oil production (including ANWR) for basically flat US oil production.

Natural Gas-to-Liquids is a viable technology but there is little effort to build this yet. LNG shipments and other uses appear to be more attractive. Qatar has one remaining project on the drawing boards AFAIK (another canceled). Again, very high capital costs and long lead times coupled with limited resource availability.

The EROEI of oil shale is too low for it to work on a large scale. Also slower than coal-to-liquids and there is no proven technology.

And that is it for viable supply side solutions in the next decade or two, even at 200 euros/barrel.

Better fuel economy in our current vehicle fleet will work for the US for about a decade IF oil production cuts are allocated evenly world-wide AND oil exports decline at a reasonably slow rate. However, I have made the argument that the US and the poorer third world nations are the “weak sisters” in economic competition for ever scarcer oil resources. And our “non-economic” efforts appear to be failing in Iraq and elsewhere. The Chinese appear to have out “stratergized” us.

$300 billion of our $760 billion trade imbalance is due to oil imports. Multiply oil prices and our exports are unlikely to increase much and our deficit will balloon. Our oil consumption (unlike Japan, Germany, France, etc.) continues to grow today and our domestic oil production continues to fall. As prices escalate, we may end up saturating world demand for dollars and dollar based assets. As with any desirable economic good, there is a limited demand at any reasonable price for the US $. Thus Japan and the EU may be forced to make minimal oil consumption cutbacks in the early years post-Peak Oil and the US will have to make disproportionate cutbacks.

Electric vehicles and even building more conventional hybrids face resource issues in quickly scaling up production world-wide. Waiving air pollution and perhaps safety requirements and accepting many more small diesel cars may be a more realistic near term option for the US. Even so, the “natural” turn-over in the US vehicle fleet is likely too slow to keep up with post-Peak Oil supply reductions.

One of my prime arguments is that the US burns over 2 million barrels/day in long haul heavy trucks (and over 250,000 in railroads). Shifting freight from heavy trucks to electrified railroads could trade 20 BTUs of diesel for 1 BTU of electricity with auxiliary benefits for safety, road maintenance, congestion, etc. And, in a prolonged oil supply shortfall, having a non-oil transportation alternative for critical goods (and some passengers) would be an invaluable strategic asset.

That good Republican Eisenhower originally wanted tolls on the interstate highways and that is a simple way to promote the shift. The truck ROW is exempt from property taxes, so I also advocate exempting from property taxes any rail line that electrifies. Add tolls to interstates and exempt electrified rail lines from property taxes and let the free market adjust to the reduction in subsidies and a more level playing field. Other, more complex gov’t policies can work as well.

More efficient vehicles in the US is a short term fix (maybe enough for a few years, maybe not) but medium term and longer term fixes will require a change in our Urban form to a more energy efficient Urban form.

One essential piece to a more efficient Urban form is electrified Urban Rail that people, businesses and government agencies can cluster around, I have prepared a list of “on-the-shelf” Urban Rail projects that could start construction in 1 to 3 years with 90% federal funding (the same % as interstate highways). Roughly $130 to $160 billion could save roughly 4% of US oil consumption in a dozen years and more as Transit Orientated Development matured around these specific “Phase I” lines. Longer term, a repeat of the 1897-1916 effort (when the US was considerably smaller and much poorer) could build subways in the largest cities and light rail/streetcars in 500 cities and towns (as we did before with “coal, mules and sweat”).

A good model is the changes resulting from government policies from 1950 to 1970. The US trashed virtually all of the prime commercial real estate circa 1950 (downtowns) and much of the preWW II housing stock. Just do the same in reverse with a combination of gov’t policies and economic forces, and hopefully a bit quicker. Build the carrot and just let the market (post-Peak Oil) be the iron rod (it will not be a stick !)

There will be numerous auxiliary benefits where walking and transportation bicycling are viable alternatives and Urban Rail is a dominant alternative transportation mode to short range EVs [electric vehicles]. And it is the only viable large scale urban alternative 25 years post-Peak Oil. The oil that is available will be needed for specialty applications [such as the manufacture of plastics, pesticides, running agricultural machinery, etc.].

Best Hopes,

Alan

[Mujer Libre]

The Cost of Living by Arundhati Roy. It consists of two essays, the first The Greater Common Good (http://www.narmada.org/gcg/gcg.html) is about top-down development (large scale infrastructure projects), big dams and their impact on the environment and marginalised people in India. It focusses on the Narmada Valley project, and it's fantastic. Yes. it's emotive, but it's also well-informed and demonstrates a really strong understanding of the broad impact of dams.

The second essay, "The End of Imagination" is about India's nuclear program. It's more of an emotive reaction to the situation, but it's still powerful and interesting- probably more as a study of nationalism though.

[cubist]

heres a link to the TV-links.co.uk site

the bbc documentaries on here are great

http://tv-links.co.uk/show.do/1/2053

walking with beasts and cavemen


ar efantastic and theres the vital panorama episodes one the racial divide in britain and scientology Which if anyone saw was priceless

move this if you think it would better suit else where

but i fugured it woul dbest serve here

[MarxSchmarx]

Kinda cappie, but their archives are also kind addictive:

http://www.loe.org/

It's a radio show out of the U$A.

[DesertShark]

The Universe series on The History Channel is really good.
Here's a link to the History Channel's website for the show: http://www.history.com/minisite.do?mini_id=54036
And if you search specific episodes on youtube, most of them are there.

**edit- I found a link on their website where you can watch some videos: http://www.history.com/video.do?name=The_Universe

-DesertShark

[Vargha Poralli]

Just bought Collapse by Jared Diamond (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_by_Jared_Diamond) whose Guns Germs and Steel is already mentioned here. This book is easily a very fine portrayal of fall of some of the civilisations in many places and a vivid comparison of Today's Montana,Easter Islandsand other polynesian islands ,American civilisations and Problems faced by Modern China and Australa with regard to environmental destruction.

This in my opinion is a must read to many people here given the lack of understanding the envronmentalist connection to the class struggle though ths might be be a least left leaning book liberal work at the best.

[pranabjyoti]

Can anybody refer any forum or website, where alternative energy, not the existing "so-called" alternatives but also new ideas can be discussed?

[Mr. Natural]

I'm going to get a bit nasty here, but first I'd like to endorse others' recommendations of Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel. As someone noted, this work is the antidote to racist theories. I would recommend, as a companion book, Charles Mannings' 1491, which discusses and reveals the extraordinary civilizations and ecological relations developed by traditional peoples in the Americas.

Now for the nastiness. I'm coming into revleft with what I believe is an accurate understanding of the organization of life (thus society). Richard Dawkins is a classic reductionist scientist who sneers at those who believe in God (I'm an atheist) while he worships tiny bits of dust (genes).

Can we get this right? Genes are nothing without their organization into a genome that is organized within a cell. Genes are essential to life, of course, but only when they are organized into a genome within a cell.

So what is this organization? It is the self-organization that is essential to all forms of life. It is the self-organization (autocatalysis) by which organic molecules in the chemical soup came together to form a primitive chemical cell and thus begin the systemic process of life.

So matter matters, but it is the critical organization of this matter into living systems that is missed by everyone.

So it's time to read Fritjof Capra's Web of Life (1996). This masterwork brings the new sciences (Einstein through systems-complexity science) down to Earth for the rest of us to understand and use. This book is about the organization of life and the universe, and the concept of self-organization he presents is the manner by which humanity must learn to organize its revolutionary movements and societies.

The Web Of Life is about the organization of life. Human consciousness cannot readily perceive organization, and so learning to organize in life's pattern represents a paradigm shift for humanity and revolutionaries. But Web makes this possible.

The living systems of life have a universal pattern of organization that must be employed by we who produce and create our lives. This scientific knowledge was unavailable to Marx and Engels, and they were lousy organizers (whom I revere). For that matter, Darwin, too, needed this new science, for his concept of evolution as well as neo-Darwinian evolutionary theory (Dawkins) misses self-organization and emergence.

Organic molecules self-organized to emerge into primitive living systems, and revlefters can learn to self-organize to emerge into a revolutionary movement of personal and social transformation. Betcha!

Read Fritjof Capra's Web of Life. Don't wait for the movie.

Mr. Natural sends his red-green revolutionary best to all.