IRSP analysis of the election

[PRC-UTE]

The votes are counted. The talking begins to form a local administration for Northern Ireland/Six Counties. The winners prepare for power while the losers lick their wounds. But in a telling remark a newly elected DUP Assembly member said that the differences between the DUP and the UUP were that the DUP had “the personal touch.”

Indeed it will become increasingly difficult as the years go on to differentiate between the five main parties, the DUP, Sinn Fein, UUP, SDLP and Alliance. Already they are lining up to put their snouts in the trough of Chancellor Gordon Brown as they seek sweeteners in the form of “a peace dividend” of £1 Billion to share power with each other. In the past they have introduced pro-capitalist policies in the form of public private partnerships and there is no clear differentiation in the economic policies they have advocated. Of course the reality is that they will introduce and implement the economic policies dictated by the British Government and which have their origins in the policies of the international capitalist bodies such as the IMF and the World Bank. Those with the republican traditions who still harbour illusions in the radicalism of Sinn Fein should note the pathetic performances of Gerry Adams on TV in the 26 Counties/Irish Republic when he floundered when pressed on specific policies to deal with issues such as health.

When the IRSP took up a principled position of opposition to the Good Friday Agreement we were vilified by some on the left and by Sinn Fein (P) as warmongers and anti –peace. But we clearly indicated we opposed the GFA because it endorsed the British policy of divide and rule. It institutionalised sectarianism, cemented British rule in a part of Ireland, and endorsed partition.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Condition after condition was put on Sinn Fein, which saw massive decommissioning and eventually endorsement of the PSNI.

Faced with a set up that forced them into choosing sectarian camps the vast majority of the voting population choose to vote for the party that seemed the strongest to represent their sectarian interests. Hence the great success of the DUP and Sinn Fein in the elections taking just under 60% of the seats available. But before getting carried away supporters of Sinn Fein should note the actions of the PSNI during the elections. The arrest of a candidate outside the count, and the arrest of the husband of a Sinn Fein councillor was the PSNI sticking two fingers up to those Shinners who talked about putting manners on the Police. The reality is that the boot is on the other foot.

However there was little joy for anti-policing candidates or indeed candidates from the left. Below we print their votes. It makes sorry reading.

Republican Sinn Fein
West Belfast: Geraldine Taylor, 427 votes (1.3%)
Mid Ulster: Brendan McLaughlin, 437 votes (1.0%)
Upper Bann: Barry Toman: 386 votes (0.9%)
East Londonderry: Michael McGonigle, 393 votes (1.2%)
Fermanagh South Tyrone: Michael McManus, 431 votes (0.9%)
West Tyrone, Joe O Neill, 448 votes (1.1%)

Dissident Provos
North Antrim: Paul McGlinchey, 383 votes (0.9%)
Newry and Armagh: Davy Highland, 2188 votes (4.4%)
Fermanagh South Tyrone: Gerry McGeough, 814 votes (1.8%)

Other Republican Independents
South Down: Martin Cunningham, 434 votes (0.9%)
Foyle: Peggy O Hara, 1789 votes (4.4%)

Workers Party

West Belfast John Lowry (Workers Party) 434 Votes (1.26%)
East Belfast- Joe Bell (Workers Party) 107 votes (0.35%)
South Belfast Paddy Lynn (Workers Party) 123 Votes (0.40)
North Belfast John Lavery (Workers Party) 139 (0.46%)
Lagan Valley John Magee (Workers Party) 83 Votes (0.19%)
South Antrim Marcella Delaney (Workers Party) 89Votes(0.23%)




Socialist Party

South Belfast Jim Barbour (Socialist Party) 248 Votes (0.81%)
East Belfast Thomas Black (Socialist Party) 225 Votes (0.75 %)

Labour

South Down Malachi Curran (Labour) 123 Votes (0.26%)

Socialist Environmental Alliance

Foyle Eamon McCann (Socialist Environmental Alliance) 2045 Votes (4.5%)

People before Profit

West Belfast Sean Mitchell (People before Profit 744 Votes (2.17%)

It is clear from these results that there is little or no support for those republicans who cling to the old certainties that the Provo movement once clung to. Indeed it is extraordinary that the group we refer to above as the Provo Dissidents only realised within the last year what the implications of the Good Friday Agreement were. Did they really believe the Provo internal propaganda that they were moving the struggle forward by recognising the police, decommissioning the IRA (P) and implementing pro-capitalist policies when in power?

Republican Sinn Fein’s complaints that they were denied proper coverage in the media is really a pathetic attempt to hide the reality that they have little support from republicans within the nationalist community. Their obsession with “English” as in their statement of Friday 9th of March, 07

“To consolidate English rule” and “by unscrupulous English governments.”

is a blatant attempt to appeal to a reactionary form of nationalism playing up people’s dislike of the English, a view shared by many people world wide. But what about not only British Imperialism but also world imperialism? And it ignores the reactionary nature of the ruling classes in Scotland and Wales who have embraced Imperialism, as indeed did the Ulster bourgeoisie. But their position is fundamentally wrong because they ignore or downplay the class struggle. They have forgotten every thing James Connolly wrote about, especially the bit about the flags and post boxes! “Imperialism would still rule you” The national question will be solved with the victory of socialism and not before.

Both the Workers Party and the Socialist Party performed poorly and in some cases it looked as if only their relatives voted for them. Splendid isolation may protect the purity of one’s politics but seemingly cuts no ice with a working class deeply divided and stuck into two sectarian camps. Ignoring or downplaying the reality of the sectarian divisions by abstract appeals to class unity in party statements and papers without actual action and unrelated to actual conditions on the ground is just another form of left liberalism. Both these organisations are in grave danger of simply becoming sects.

But from a socialist perspective there were some bright spots. The vote for Eamon McCann in Foyle showed the value of campaigning on real issues following long sustained work on class politics. While the IRSP has strong reservations about the stance of the SEA on key issues such as Imperialism, the national question, and broad fronts we applaud their work on key class issues. That is also probably why the People Before Profit got such a comparatively high vote in West Belfast. They emphasised the issue of water charges, which will affect every working class family if implemented. That obviously has struck a cord with much right across the sectarian divide. That discontent must be built upon.

The vote for Peggy O Hara was extraordinary given that there was no electoral experience from her team but the enthusiasm and dedication of her workers tapped into an emotion that needs to be built upon. The alliance between the IRSP/32CSM and Concerned Republicans shows what can be achieved among republicans on a platform that dealt with key issues of concerns for republicans but avoided a knee jerk anti Sinn Fein bashing approach. The comparative success of the Peggy O’Hara campaign has led some republicans to believe that a new Irish republican alliance (ira) can be build as a political party. Such a venture would ignore the ideological differences that exist between the existing forces. For its part the IRSP will continue to do what it has been doing over the past 11 years, while others stood on the sidelines, building a credible left revolutionary force advocating the Connolly /Costello road to revolution. The gradual build up organisationally of the IRSP in Derry over the last five years undoubtedly added to the vitality of the Peggy O’Hara campaign. It has established a base that can be built upon. Now the IRSP need to push positive policies approaches and ideas from an anti-imperialist and socialist perspective rather than get diverted down cul de sacs.

The overwhelming victory of Sinn Fein is not a cause for despair for republicans or socialists. Rather it is an opportunity for the left to take stock and also take advantages of the stance and compromises that that organisation will have to make to exercise power. In the south of Ireland nearly one third of the electorate vote for a range of parties and individuals that can be broadly classified as “left”. As the economic conditions worsen in both parts of Ireland, as witnessed by the loss of 900 hundred jobs in the Munster area announced last week, the discontent of the masses will become evident. Already a number of rises in the interest on mortgages in both parts of Ireland has dramatically increased the cost of living for thousands. Spiralling house prices in the North has meant that 4 out of five houses now sold go to property speculators. Dublin houses prices mean that locals cannot afford to buy in Dublin. Young married couples are finding it increasingly difficult to secure suitable accommodation. The privatisation of public utilities and the cutting back of all the gains of the working class over the past ninety years is on the agenda of all capitalist Governments. The coming election in the South will make no fundamental changes regardless of which coalition is stuck together. The new Government will carry out the policies of globalisation at the bidding of the capitalist classes.

Now is the time for the left and republican left to build alliances that can channel the coming discontent into political advances for the working class. The door is now opening for the resurgence of the left because with new administrations looming in the North and South with no essential differences in policy but to implement pro big business policies the left can now become, in the unions and on the streets and hopefully in the electoral field a real opposition to the pro-capitalist policies of the new regimes.

[LTPS]

The SP predicted both candidates would get around 250 votes. East and South Belfast don't stand out as working class strongholds, most of the affluent areas of Belfast are situated there, the SP just didn't have an experienced candidate who could stand in West or North Belfast. And most of Belfast and the North is still stuck in the ''vote for them to keep them out'' (and vice versa)mindsight, which squeezes out the Left.

I have to say fair play to the SWP in taking a risk and putting Sean Mitchell up as a candidate for PBP, out-polling both RSF and the Stickies.

[PRC-UTE]

here's analysis from the socialist party / cwi Irish section

Northern Ireland
Assembly election produces another sectarian headcount
Political force representing working class needed

Peter Hadden, Socialist Party (CWI), Belfast
In terms of the result, the election to the Northern Ireland Assembly was yet another sectarian headcount. The outcome of what really was two separate elections, one a battle among unionism, between Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the declining Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the other a contest between Sinn Fein and the SDLP (Social Democratic and Labour Party) for the nationalist vote, confirmed the trend of all recent elections.

Sinn Fein and the DUP made gains, while their rivals fell further behind. Sinn Fein emerged with 26% of the vote, and 28 seats. The SDLP vote tally of 15% left them with 16 seats, down two on the 2003 election.

The decline of the UUP, for many years the predominant party of unionism, was even more dramatic. Their vote fell in every constituency, in one case by 27%, as the DUP continued to make gains at their expense. Four years ago, the UUP got 157,000 votes and 24 seats; this time their vote slumped to 103,000 and they are down to 18 seats.

The DUP confirmed their position as the biggest party, taking 31% of the vote and 36 seats.

A question mark still hangs over the fate of the Assembly. There is still no firm commitment from the DUP that they will agree to share power with Sinn Fein. The British and Irish governments have set an “absolute” deadline of 26 March for agreement.

A deal is possible although it may not be arrived at before 26 March – in which case this deadline could well turn out, like every previous deadline, to be more elastic than “absolute”.

The election outcome, in fact, makes it easier for a strengthened DUP and Sinn Fein, to eventually come to some agreement. Dissident republicans, who opposed Sinn Fein on policing, all did badly, as did those hard-line unionists who challenged the DUP on power sharing.

If a deal is now done, which would make Ian Paisley First Minister, with Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness as his deputy, this should not be mistaken for a settlement. A DUP/Sinn Fein dominated coalition would be fragile from the outset. It would take power against a backcloth of almost total sectarian political polarisation and would be liable to come to pieces at any time.

What was most clearly shown by this election was the need for a new political force to challenge the right wing sectarian parties and represent the united interests of working class communities, on both sides of the divide.

Low key election
While there is very little in the Assembly vote that points to the potential for a new party of this character to emerge, the results do not tell the full story. From the outset it was an unusually – for Northern Ireland – low key election, characterised by apathy, as well as a large dose of scepticism, especially in working class areas, towards all the politicians.

The issue that emerged consistently and dominated the campaign debates was water charges. Everywhere they went, the politicians were confronted with the anger of working class people on this.

So much so, they had to twist and turn and, in words at least, change their position on the charges. The Democratic Unionist Party, for example, began the campaign with a manifesto that, while claiming to oppose water charges, actually called for metering and agreement that the maximum charge would be no more than the average paid by people in England and Wales. By the end of the campaign, the DUP said water charges were a “deal breaker”.

However, what the politicians say during an election and what they do in practice are two different things. Significantly, the one thing that united all the parties was (and is) their opposition to non-payment of charges.

The Socialist Party is playing a leading role in building the ‘We Won’t Pay Campaign’, to prepare for mass non-payment. The party also ran two candidates in the election - long-standing party member, Tommy Black, stood in East Belfast, and local fire-fighters’ leader, Jim Barbour, ran in South Belfast.

Because of the huge amount of work involved in building the We Won’t Pay Campaign to oppose water charges, the party did not put the same effort into this election as we did in past elections. Nonetheless, the votes, although still small – 248 votes in South Belfast and 225 in East – were up on the last Assembly election.

The party got a very warm response in working class areas during the election and now has a good platform to build for mass non-payment of water charges in these communities.

www.socialistworld.net (CWI)

[PRC-UTE]

this is from a blog analysing the election results as well and casting an eye towards the left and republican alternatives to the gfa.


The Old Firm election, part 3
from Splintered Sunrise blog:
http://splinteredsunrise.blogspot.com/2007...ion-part-3.html (http://splinteredsunrise.blogspot.com/2007/03/old-firm-election-part-3.html)

Whereat we cast a beady eye on the dissident republicans and go under the
SEA with Captain Eamo

In this final post on the Stormont election results, I want to take a look
at the two forces aspiring to offer an alternative – the republicans and
the left – and assess the likelihood of them being able to do so. I should
state in advance that my conclusions will not be terribly optimistic. But
to begin with, I should point out that there are two constituencies, which
are distinct even though they overlap to some extent. This is the
traditional republican constituency, which is mostly rural though with
some urban support, and what might be termed a left republican, republican
socialist or Connollyite constituency, which is almost exclusively urban.
The election results partially illuminate these audiences.

The actual votes for dissidence are not all that much out of line with
what I was expecting. They might have surprised outside observers relying
on press reports (and, despite the effective media blackout on RSF, there
was a remarkable boosting of mad Catholic reactionary Gerry McGeough by
journalists who you wouldn’t expect to be sympathetic). Indeed, although
disgruntlement with the Provos will be obvious to anyone even slightly
acquainted with the republican base, there are good reasons why the
dissidents were never going to do very well. Firstly, the Provo cadre –
and this is where disillusionment is keenest – was never held together by
ideology, but by military discipline. This explains why demoralisation and
abstention are a more common reaction than dissidence. Bear in mind too
that, as far as the majority of Northern Catholics are concerned, the
details of the peace process are of little interest. What is important is
that the war is over and, thanks to Gordon Brown’s voodoo economics, there
is more or less full employment. Combined with the Provos’ massive
apparatus, this gives some context for PSF’s continuing popularity and the
lack of a large audience for critiques of the GFA process.

Then you have to consider the subjective factor. The dissidents had no
organisation, no resources, no really attractive or well-known candidates
and no record of doing the work on the ground that pays such dividends for
the Provos. (Davy Hyland, who is personally very popular in Newry and
whose appetite for hard work is legendary, is the exception here.) Lots of
potential supporters weren’t on the register, having taken themselves off
to avoid being impersonated. There was also the question of what political
alternative the dissidents were putting forward. RSF stand for traditional
republicanism, and traditional republicanism wasn’t all that brilliant
that we would want to rerun the tape. Gerry McGeough stands for
traditional republicanism, plus fascism and the Virgin Mary. As for
Hyland, Paul McGlinchey and Martin Cunningham, it’s not terribly clear
what they stand for. So you had candidacies that could only really appeal
to people who were already fairly hardline republicans, and even among
hardline republicans RSF, in particular, are far from being universally
popular.

So the results for independent republicanism then become explicable. RSF’s
six candidates polled a remarkably uniform 400 or so, as did McGlinchey in
North Antrim and Cunningham in South Down; 800 deluded souls in Fermanagh
voted for Catholic Reaction; Hyland got a little over 2000 in Newry/Armagh
and Peggy O’Hara a little under 2000 in Derry. Mrs O’Hara’s campaign had
some peculiar features that I’ll come back to presently. I hasten to point
out that I’m not making excuses for poor results, simply setting them in
context. So, taken together with the Hearts and Minds poll last November,
we might say that the dissident vote this time out represents a baseline
rather than a maximum, but it does shine a light on the sort of audience
that is out there. And we can have some kind of feel for the audience that
might be available to a more attractive project than actually existing
dissidence.

The Hyland vote is easily explicable in parish pump terms. The vote for
Mrs O’Hara, who is not to my knowledge in the IRSP but is certainly
identified with them, is interesting in that it was the nearest thing we
had to a left republican campaign (although trad republicans in Derry also
supported her) and because of what it says about political developments up
there. Basically, there is a relatively big audience for dissidence in
Derry because Derry has had nationalist government for decades and had a
peace process ten years before the rest of us. Things have been maturing
slightly quicker there. That’s why so many of the names on the Letter of
500 came from Derry. But the sentiment of opposition is also quite
confused. We could see that in the policing debate, where the dissidents
organised a big rally in Derry, and then invited Eamonn McCann and Tony
McIntyre to do the speaking. Predictably, neither of these balloons had
much to say, though, predictably, that didn’t stop them talking at length.
The hope would have to be that some people in Derry do some thinking and
draw some conclusions.

I have a faint hope that some opposition might arise from disgruntled
republicans. I have no such hope in the far left, but it’s worth glancing
at their performances anyway. It’s disappointing to note that the Workers
Party seem to have slowed their inexorable decline. To be honest, the
Sticks don’t serve any socialist purpose any more and their disappearance
would at least clear away some undergrowth.

>From the Sticks we turn to the most morose people in Irish politics, the
Socialist Party of Northern Ireland (Kautskyism-Taaffeism-Peter Hadden
Thought). They will be slightly cheered up by their vote having finally
broken through the 200 mark, with Jim Barbour in South Belfast going up
from 167 to 248 and Tommy Black in East Belfast rising from 176 to 225.
These gains of 81 and 49 respectively are a clear vindication of SP
strategy – not! This is despite flogging water charges into the ground
over the past three or four years, with Peter Hadden having recently
declared that the proletariat were being electrified by the We Won’t Pay
Campaign (a mass movement of the SP in coalition with itself). Yet again
bread and butter fail to deliver the goods. It’s true that water charges
were much discussed during the election, but most of the punters seem to
believe that Big Ian will abolish them.

Joking aside, the main problem with the SP’s perspective is their weird
belief that you can build a base for socialism in places like the
Beersbridge Road, if only you disavow anti-imperialism and strip out from
your programme anything that might scare the Prods. The SP have been doing
this for decades – so much so that their last manifesto only had one item
on it. And they still can’t get votes in these areas! It would be
interesting to see which boxes the tiny SP vote actually did come from – I
suspect much of it actually comes from the Markets and Short Strand, and
is an offshoot of the once substantial WP vote in those areas. The thing
is that, for well over 30 years, the only places in the North where
socialism could find any audience have been working-class Catholic areas,
where there has been some radical and anti-imperialist consciousness. That
means West Belfast and Derry, to a lesser extent North Belfast and Newry,
and some small pockets elsewhere. In other words, the left republican
constituency mentioned above. The SP’s schematic dogmatism doesn’t allow
them to consider this; the SWP are dimly aware of it on some pragmatic
level, although it contradicts their formal politics.

The SWP, as anyone who attended their Marxism event at the weekend will
testify, are cock-a-hoop at the votes for Captain Eamo in Derry and the
wee lad in West Belfast, running under their two different fronts. How
their treasurer feels about having shelled out something like five grand
for less than 3000 votes is undisclosed, but on the evidence of Marxism it
would seem that Yo politics are alive and well. Actually, although Eamo’s
vote has held up remarkably well – Mrs O’Hara’s intervention only slightly
dented it – I am more and more convinced that this is an essentially
personal vote and not evidence that 2000 people in Derry believe the
Soviet Union was state capitalist. Rather, I suspect much of it comes from
luvvie elements, of whom there are many in Derry. After all, if fellow
journo Brian Rowan can score 1200 first preferences in North Down on a
platform of anti-politics, it surely isn’t surprising that TV celebrity
McCann, one of the best-known faces in the North, could get 2000 votes for
a platform of right-on clichés.

Somewhat more to the point is the vote for the wee lad, who scored nearly
800 in West Belfast. This clearly wasn’t a personal vote, as nobody had
ever heard of the candidate. (The Provos had a number of candidates I’ve
never heard of, but then they have a machine.) It wasn’t a vote for SWP
politics, as it wasn’t an SWP campaign. It surely to God wasn’t a popular
endorsement of young Seán’s Ali G manifesto. The only explanation I can
put forward is that he managed to get some votes from the left republican
constituency, on the grounds that he looked a bit lefty and a bit
anti-imperialist (only in Iraq, true, but in West Belfast that would be
taken as a dig at the Brits). These are the same sort of people who would
vote for an IRSP or Socialist Democracy candidate – indeed, the Irps or SD
might have done better, as they would have run an explicitly anti-Stormont
campaign.

I can’t see the SWP getting anything out of this in the long term. The
Irps or SD, having acquired this audience, would go out and try to
organise an opposition. The SWP can’t, not only because they don’t have
the organisation, but, more importantly, because they don’t have the
politics. What could they do with these people – sell them tickets to
Marxism? The only consolation for the SWP is that they don’t think in the
long term anyway. A short morale boost will suit them fine.

The republican opposition, for all their enormous faults, are at least
serious people, while the left as usual give the impression of being
totally unserious about anything except short-term sectarian advantage.
Even so, for the critic of the Grizzlyite peace strategy, there is little
here to take comfort from. The most that can be said is, perhaps the
ferment in Derry will throw up something worthwhile.

[Severian]

Originally posted by PRC-[email protected] 17, 2007 03:46 pm
Bear in mind too that, as far as the majority of Northern Catholics are concerned, the details of the peace process are of little interest. What is important is that the war is over and, thanks to Gordon Brown’s voodoo economics, there is more or less full employment. Combined with the Provos’ massive apparatus, this gives some context for PSF’s continuing popularity and the lack of a large audience for critiques of the GFA process.
Well, yeah. Clearly SF is less and less able to project anything that even looks like a road forward for the fight for an independent and united Ireland.

But would restarting the armed campaign (or would have continuing it) be a better alternative? It was pretty much stalemated. So it makes little sense to focus on opposing the Good Friday Agreement in order to make a critique of, or alternative to, Sinn Fein.

Under conditions where an armed conflict is stalemated, sometimes negotiating an end to it can provide space for mass action to move forward. South Africa is an example.

In the early stages of the Good Friday agreement, there were some significant mass actions that showed some potential for the same thing to happen in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein ultimately proved unable to maintain this initial impulse. But that doesn't mean it's correct to criticize them for signing the GFA or decomissioning their weapons, unless you really think continuing the IRA's armed campaign was a better option.

***

One other thing about these election results: one British paper headlined 'em "Loyalists win majority". Apparently that no longer goes without saying.

[PRC-UTE]

Originally posted by [email protected] 17, 2007 10:43 pm
Well, yeah. Clearly SF is less and less able to project anything that even looks like a road forward for the fight for an independent and united Ireland.

But would restarting the armed campaign (or would have continuing it) be a better alternative? It was pretty much stalemated. So it makes little sense to focus on opposing the Good Friday Agreement in order to make a critique of, or alternative to, Sinn Fein.

Under conditions where an armed conflict is stalemated, sometimes negotiating an end to it can provide space for mass action to move forward. South Africa is an example.

In the early stages of the Good Friday agreement, there were some significant mass actions that showed some potential for the same thing to happen in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein ultimately proved unable to maintain this initial impulse. But that doesn't mean it's correct to criticize them for signing the GFA or decomissioning their weapons, unless you really think continuing the IRA's armed campaign was a better option.



I'm not sure who you're responding to as it's not the position of the IRSP to push fro a return to armed struggle. The author of that blog was rather scathing in his criticque of the 'traditionalist' republicans who advocate that, so I can't see that's his position, either. He seems to agree with teh IRSP that organising a mass opposition is the way forward. There are less and less anti-gfa republicans advocating armed struggle as they realise it's not remotely feasible.

Of course SF hasn't maintained any mass struggle (with the exception of the language issue where they still do some good work). It was never their intention. This process was about putting SF in a coalition government. Their support base is continually shifting to the middle class and the changes in policy are stark. Just recently a SF spokesperson said the mass protest campaign against paying water charges would be pointless.

When the GFA first started, the IRSP leadership met with the leadership of SF and suggested that we build a mass opposition to british rule and neoliberal attacks on the working class rather than sign up to the reactionary cul-de-sac of the peace process, which doesn't address let alone resolve the national question. But SF rejected that idea.


One other thing about these election results: one British paper headlined 'em "Loyalists win majority". Apparently that no longer goes without saying.

I believe they mean that Loyalists ("extremists" like Paisley) won rather than more "moderate" Unionists like the UUP. Teh election results were a sectarian headcount, a divide which the GFA has only made worse.


Under conditions where an armed conflict is stalemated, sometimes negotiating an end to it can provide space for mass action to move forward.

the six counties of Ireland are a bit different as there's basically no room to manouvere once you're signed up to the gfa- not just in issues like policing but in pretty much anything, as the six county assembly doesn't control most basic budget priorities.

[Severian]

Well, the ISRP statement says: "Did they really believe the Provo internal propaganda that they were moving the struggle forward by recognising the police, decommissioning the IRA (P) and implementing pro-capitalist policies when in power?"

Emphasis added by me - in fact, under some conditions the mass movement is moved forward by abandoning the armed struggle. And there was some reason to think, for a time, that this was actually happening in northern Ireland.

But OK, I take your point that this is less and less the main basis of opposition to Sinn Fein's political course.


I believe they mean that Loyalists ("extremists" like Paisley) won rather than more "moderate" Unionists like the UUP.

Nah - Here's the one I was referring to. (http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=381132007)
Unionists win Northern Ireland Assembly election
ANGUS HOWARTH

THERE will be a majority of Unionists in the next Northern Ireland Executive if power- sharing returns later this month, it emerged last night.

The DUP by itself is not a majority, of course.

I'm not trying to say this changes the overall picture, including the sectarian voting you point out. But British rule in Ireland, or at least its current form, is going to run into some problems if Unionists are no longer a majority at some point - probably this is why the DUP keeps trying to block "power-sharing."

[PRC-UTE]

Originally posted by [email protected] 18, 2007 09:51 pm
Well, the ISRP statement says: "Did they really believe the Provo internal propaganda that they were moving the struggle forward by recognising the police, decommissioning the IRA (P) and implementing pro-capitalist policies when in power?"

Emphasis added by me - in fact, under some conditions the mass movement is moved forward by abandoning the armed struggle. And there was some reason to think, for a time, that this was actually happening in northern Ireland.

But OK, I take your point that this is less and less the main basis of opposition to Sinn Fein's political course.

ah I see what you mean. We do criticise them harshly for giving up their weapons. We've maintained a no first strike policy since our ceasefire, we didn't surrender like the PIRA. As Costello said, 'a movement that doesn't defend itself doesn't deserve to exist.'

[Cheung Mo]

The ultra-liberal in me is cringing at the radicals that SF would have to alienate to make a deal with the Paisleyite fascists.