The Taliban and their "Spring Offensive"...

[Spirit of Spartacus]

We've been hearing a lot about the Taliban preparing for some huge Spring Offensive this year. Military activity in Afghanistan is heating up.

So what do you think of this "Spring Offensive"? Spring is here, the snows in the Afghan mountains should start melting soon.

What do you think the Taliban Spring Offensive will involve? How much can it harm the NATO imperialists, and what could be the possible results of this offensive?

[Guerrilla22]

Yeah things have been heating up over there. NATO has been dropping bombs for the first itme in a while. I don't expect the Taliban to accomplish much. They might be able to gain control of a few areas and manage to kill a few NATO and Afghan govt. troops, but in the long run they probaly will just end up getting chased back into Western Pakistan.

[Hiero]

The report i watch (SBS world news) said that the occupying government will bring the fight to the Taliban, rather then wait for an offensive.

[Spirit of Spartacus]

The report i watch (SBS world news) said that the occupying government will bring the fight to the Taliban, rather then wait for an offensive.

Take the fight to the Taliban, eh?

Does that involve anything like this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2931297.stm)? :lol:

Because frankly, I think they're bullshitting. The Taliban can retreat into areas where the Afghan lackeys and their imperialist masters can never get to.

[Marukusu]

The talibans are defeated, no matter how many huge spring offensives they can come up with. The NATO forces have superior weapons, tech, equipment, training etc, etc. The taliban militias is just a bunch of religious fanatics with AK 47:s.

[Phalanx]

It'll end up like the Tet offensive: militarily a gigantic defeat, but also a show of force demonstrating how powerful the guerrillas are.

NATO can't win southern Afghanistan, and even the north is getting further from them. Outside Kabul, the majority of the people side with the Taliban (which is extremely unfortunate, as we could see the homophobic, anti-worker, sexist movement come back into power).

[dso79]

The talibans are defeated, no matter how many huge spring offensives they can come up with. The NATO forces have superior weapons, tech, equipment, training etc, etc. The taliban militias is just a bunch of religious fanatics with AK 47:s.

They're definitely not defeated; they're better equipped and better organized than they were a few years ago, and what's more important, they have more support among the population now, mostly as a result of the mistakes NATO made (civilian casualties, no reconstruction etc).

I don't think one single offensive will really harm NATO, though; a guerrilla army will never be able to defeat NATO's conventional army. In order to drive out foreign troops they just need to continue to harass the imperialists and make the occupation as costly as possible for them, so that eventually they will be forced to pull out.

[RNK]

No, they'e definately NOT defeated. A good example is the fact that from 2002 to 2005, a total of 4 Canadian soldiers were killed in Afghanistan in combat. In 2006, over 30 were killed in combat. If anything, the Taliban is getting much stronger.

[Janus]

It'll probably harm the Allied occupation forces there to a certain degree as far as harming the stability in certain areas and perhaps even gaining more land for the Taliban. But it'll inevitably stall and be pushed back as the US and the Afghani army committ more forces for an offensive of their own.

[Fawkes]

I know fighting the imperialists is definitely a good thing, but if they succeed (unlikely), they will just regain power which will be a very bad thing for the Afghan working class.

[Axel1917]

The US is getting nowhere. The most powerful weapons on earth cannot stop a people that refuses to be occupied (Iraq being a great example).

Not sure what it will exactly amount to, but the US won't be able to stay forever.

I have heard that there are other elements in Afghanistan besides the Taliban, such as remnants of the old Stalinist regime. I am not sure to what degree such fighting and the like is being done, the influence of such groups, etc. is though. Have not heard too much about it on an overall whole.

[Spirit of Spartacus]

I know fighting the imperialists is definitely a good thing, but if they succeed (unlikely), they will just regain power which will be a very bad thing for the Afghan working class.

Well, comrade, imperialist occupation is the worst thing that can happen to any country.

Trust me, its worse than even Taliban rule.

In any case, think of it this way...the Taliban represent Pashtun dominance, so its unlikely that they could take over the country again so easily.

In the end, we might well see a situation where the Taliban contribute significantly towards forcing the NATO troops to withdraw, but are unable to form a government of their own, due to resistance from the other ethnicities in Afghanistan.

Won't that be cool?




I have heard that there are other elements in Afghanistan besides the Taliban, such as remnants of the old Stalinist regime. I am not sure to what degree such fighting and the like is being done, the influence of such groups, etc. is though. Have not heard too much about it on an overall whole.

Yes, that is correct.

The old Marxist party, known as the People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) hasn't exactly been rooted out of Afghan society.

True, the party structure itself no longer exists, but you have to remember that most of the educated and mature people in Afghan cities today received their education during the PDPA regime, and it was a time of stability and secular rule in the cities despite the savage civil war in the countryside.

It is only a matter of time before those old PDPA elements are able to re-organize. At least I hope so.

I know a guy here, his family left Afghanistan during the Taliban rule. He's a communist, and his parents were great supporters of the PDPA regime back in the 80s.

[ComradeR]

The report i watch (SBS world news) said that the occupying government will bring the fight to the Taliban, rather then wait for an offensive.
How the hell would they manage this? The Taliban operates out of Pakistan, and any invasion made by NATO would result in the religious zealots overthrowing the US puppet government there, which would be replaced by one that is allied to the Taliban and armed with nuclear weapons. I highly doubt the capitalists are willing to risk this.


Well, comrade, imperialist occupation is the worst thing that can happen to any country.

Trust me, its worse than even Taliban rule.
Um no, for the Afghan people it's the same, they're in a lose-lose situation.

[Marukusu]

Originally posted by Ernest
No, they'e definately NOT defeated. A good example is the fact that from 2002 to 2005, a total of 4 Canadian soldiers were killed in Afghanistan in combat. In 2006, over 30 were killed in combat. If anything, the Taliban is getting much stronger.

So 30 NATO soldiers where killed in a year... that's strictly speaking nothing. An army division consists of about 10000-12000 soldiers, and there's always more young and stupid volunteers to fill in for the KIA:s.
And how many talibans do you think died under the same time? I bet the number is at least more than twice that.
Now while just because one side kills the most enemies doesn't neccesarily means that that side "wins" the war, I think the talibans are pretty much gone forever. The resistance against the occupation forces doesn't only consists of talibans, but of many different armed groups, often with an islamic nationalist and reactionary ideology - but not taliban.

Now I don't think either side in this war deserves be cheered at or supported except maybe the old communist party members, but I don't know much about them or their policies.

[Janus]

The Taliban was defeated but have since made a comeback due to popular disgruntlement with the US and its allied Afghan government. The increasing numbers and sophistication of the Taliban have been commented on by most of the US military commanders there.