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Sentinel
20th February 2007, 22:34
So, has anyone heard about this? An asteroid which could be up to 320 meters (1000 feet) in diameter, called Apophis, may collide with earth in 2036. There was a big article about this on the website of one of Sweden's largest newspapers, Aftonbladet, so it's apparently not bullshit.. The swedish article said the asteroid was only 150 m in diameter though, so I'm a little confused now.

Regardless, was an asteroid of these proportions to actually hit earth, it'd be enough to erase a metropolis at once, and could potentially have a disastrious long term impact on the future of many lifeforms on earth. It would easily be the greatest catastrophe to strike mankind so far.

I found this online:


Originally posted by SPACE.com
BOULDER, Colorado The potential for a newly discovered asteroid smacking into the Earth in 2036 cannot be discounted. NASA has sketched out a response strategy in the outside possibility that the space rock becomes a true threat.

NASAs action plan was the result of prodding by a group of astronauts, scientists and other technical specialists uneasy about the current lack of action to protect the Earth from the impact of near Earth objects (NEOs).

The object was found last year through the efforts of NASAs Spaceguard Survey. In 1998 NASA formally initiated the Spaceguard Survey by adopting the objective of finding 90 percent of the near Earth asteroids larger than 3,280 feet (one kilometer) diameter within the next decade - before the end of 2008.

Asteroid 99942 Apophis first labeled as 2004 MN4 -- is estimated to be roughly 1,000 feet (320 meters) in diameter. Were it to strike Earth, it would not set off global havoc but would generate significant local or regional damage, experts say.

Worrisome to asteroid watchers is the exceptionally close flyby of Earth by Apophis on April 13, 2029. So close in fact, the space rock will be naked-eye visible as it darts by. And what cant be ruled out at this time is that Apophis may pass through a gravitational keyhole a spot that alters the asteroids trajectory as it zips by our planet and might put it on the bee-line lane for banging into Earth seven years later.

Issue of critical importance

Concern over asteroid Apophis and the ability to precisely chart its trajectory -- and take steps if needed to deflect the object -- were fervently voiced by the B612 Foundation, chaired by Russell Schweickart, a former Apollo astronaut.

The group requested that NASA carry out an analysis that included the possibility of placing an active radio transponder on the object. Doing so at a fairly early date would yield the requisite orbital accuracy of the asteroid as it sped through space.

In a June 6 letter to NASA Administrator, Michael Griffin, Schweickart on behalf of the B612 Foundation called for support in resolving an issue of critical importance - namely whether a scientific mission should be launched to asteroid Apophis in the near term.

Such a probe, if dispatched, Schweickart stated, would provide knowledge of the asteroids orbit in time to initiate a deflection mission in the unlikely event one should be required. The position of the B612 Foundation was that the mission should be staged, pointing out that NASAs NEO program personnel apparently did not concur with that view. A spacecraft mission to Apophis would augment tracking of the object from the ground, the letter to Griffin explained, and also carry out a number of scientific duties too.

NASA response

NASA provided a formal response to the B612 Foundations June communiqu via an October 12 letter from Mary Cleave, Associate Administrator for Science Mission Directorate.

That NASA reply came with an appended detailed analysis by Steven Chesley of NASAS NEO Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. The study by Chesley dug into Apophis orbit, under varying conditions, and contained other items pertaining to the space agencys findings about the Apophis matter.

The key conclusion to be taken from this analysis, Cleave explained in the letter, is that aggressive (i.e., more expensive) action can reasonably be delayed until after the 2013 observing opportunity. For Apophis, the 16 years available after 2013 are sufficient to recognize and respond to any hazard that still exists after that time.

Cleave noted in the letter that while Apophis is an object whose motion we will continue to monitor closely in the coming years, we conclude a space mission to this object based solely on any perceived collision hazard is not warranted at this time.

Not ruled out by Cleave, however, is the prospect of Discovery-class, low-cost missions sent to Apophis, based on purely scientific arguments, she said.

Indeed, the asteroids orbit is particularly attractive for spacecraft rendezvous, and the extraordinary close encounter in April 2029 provides a unique opportunity to investigate a number of scientific NEO issues, Cleave explained in the letter.

The entire article at SPACE.com (http://www.space.com/news/051103_asteroid_apophis.html). According to the article in Aftonbladet, Nasa is actually considering different strategies to alter the asteroid's course, much like in the moive Armageddon.. I would have linked to it, but it's in Swedish. So, what has everyone heard about this, and what do you comrades think? Please post links and news on the subject in this thread.

Knight of Cydonia
20th February 2007, 23:07
this scared the hell out of me :(

Fawkes
20th February 2007, 23:11
Is there any way it could be destroyed by a missile? Though I suppose the smaller parts of it would still hit earth.

The Bitter Hippy
20th February 2007, 23:51
Remember that the more fragmented it could be made, the less danger it would pose. If it were smashed in half, its surface area would almost double, and so the burning of the atmosphere would have a greater effect, and also the damage would be wider spread.

Secondly, an asteroid strike by something this size only has the potential to do great harm if it strikes a major city, which is statistically ludicrously unlikely.

even if it does hit us, it's not nealry enough to kill us. And what doesn't kill us makes us stronger.

The Anarchist Prince
21st February 2007, 01:52
*sigh*

Being millions upon millions of miles away, all we have to do is launch a small "spaceship" (umanned obviously) to use it's gravitational pull to alter the course of the asteroid enough to make it a certainty it doesn't hit earth. Besides, don't worry about this one, because there's thousands of much much larger ones that are headed towards us....untracked. :) Sleep tight. (Remember, if you duck and cover, you'll be incinerated in a crappy pose!)

Qwerty Dvorak
21st February 2007, 02:27
A spaceship would not have enough gravitational pull to alter the course of the meteorite, as far as I know.

The Anarchist Prince
21st February 2007, 02:39
Originally posted by [email protected] 20, 2007 09:27 pm
A spaceship would not have enough gravitational pull to alter the course of the meteorite, as far as I know.
Fools need to read the news.



The favored approach to dealing with a potentially deadly space rock is to dispatch a spacecraft that would use gravity to alter the asteroid's course so it no longer threatens Earth, said astronaut Ed Lu, a veteran of the international space station.

The so-called Gravity Tractor could maintain a position near the threatening asteroid, exerting a gentle tug that, over time, would deflect the asteroid.

An asteroid the size of Apophis, which is about 460 feet long, would take about 12 days of gravity-tugging, Lu added.

Mission costs are estimated at $300 million.

Launching an asteroid deflection mission early would reduce the amount of energy needed to alter its course and increase the chances of a successful outcome, Schweickart said.



Link (http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/02/19/asteroid.deflector.reut/index.html)

redcannon
21st February 2007, 03:24
i suppose if the spaceship was givin enough time with the meteor and it was massive enough, it could theoretically alter the course of the asteroid.

unfortunately, we can't blow it up, because then instead of one large rock, we have hundreds of radioactive rocks, that tend to bond together because of gravity. so that would doublefuck us.

i wouldn't worry about anything, though. by 2036, we'll probably be dead anyway. :)

which doctor
21st February 2007, 03:27
Originally posted by knight of [email protected] 20, 2007 06:07 pm
this scared the hell out of me :(
Don't be, we still have nearly 30 more years till we have to worry about this. Even then they will probably evacuate the estimated target area. And in 30 years we will have so much more technology.

Eleutherios
21st February 2007, 03:33
Originally posted by [email protected] 21, 2007 03:24 am
i suppose if the spaceship was givin enough time with the meteor and it was massive enough, it could theoretically alter the course of the asteroid.

unfortunately, we can't blow it up, because then instead of one large rock, we have hundreds of radioactive rocks, that tend to bond together because of gravity. so that would doublefuck us.

i wouldn't worry about anything, though. by 2036, we'll probably be dead anyway. :)
Well yeah, blowing it up isn't going to help us. But it is possible to alter the course of its orbit by detonating nuclear weapons near it. This would be the best use of nuclear weapons that I can think of.

Sentinel
21st February 2007, 15:57
Do not spam in Sciences & Environment -- thread purged.

In regards to dealing with the asteroid, NASA's plans to use gravity in order to alter the asteroid's course seems perhaps most reasonable to me, even though a detonation close to it does sound interesting as well. I've gotta say I'm mighty proud of the fact that the human species is able to even seriously consider such an option. :)

Generally I'm optimistic about this whole thing but still quite worried..

Vargha Poralli
21st February 2007, 16:22
Wki on this Meteor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_Apophis) It says


Originally posted by Wiki
It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant.

I do not understand head or tail of this statement.Could somebody explain it ?

NASA risk Impact assesment (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html)

Sadena Meti
21st February 2007, 16:47
I've always dreamed of living in a post apocalyptic world. Maybe I'll live to see it. Wish it would get here sooner, guess I'll have to keep in shape.

bcbm
21st February 2007, 16:52
Originally posted by rev-[email protected] 21, 2007 10:47 am
I've always dreamed of living in a post apocalyptic world. Maybe I'll live to see it. Wish it would get here sooner, guess I'll have to keep in shape.
We should go practice our survival skills in the northwoods. :lol: I think that would be pretty exciting, though it sounds like this asteroid won't get us there any quicker. We'll probably do the job ourselves first anyway.

RevMARKSman
21st February 2007, 17:23
Originally posted by g.ram+February 21, 2007 11:22 am--> (g.ram @ February 21, 2007 11:22 am) Wki on this Meteor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_Apophis) It says


Wiki
It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant.

I do not understand head or tail of this statement.Could somebody explain it ?

NASA risk Impact assesment (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html) [/b]
If the odds are extremely low, the effect don't really matter, because it probably won't happen anyway.

Sentinel
21st February 2007, 20:12
Originally posted by RevMARKSman+February 21, 2007 06:23 pm--> (RevMARKSman @ February 21, 2007 06:23 pm)
Originally posted by g.ram+February 21, 2007 11:22 am--> (g.ram @ February 21, 2007 11:22 am) Wki on this Meteor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_Apophis) It says


[email protected]
It must be stressed that the odds of impact are now known to be very low. Hence, the possible effects of an impact are largely irrelevant.

I do not understand head or tail of this statement.Could somebody explain it ?

NASA risk Impact assesment (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html) [/b]
If the odds are extremely low, the effect don't really matter, because it probably won't happen anyway. [/b]

NASA risk Impact assessment
Impact Probability: 2.2e-05

0.002200000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 45,000 chance

or

99.99780000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

These are of course very calming numbers. But let's not forget about the possibility of the asteroid passing through a 'gravitational keyhole' as it passes us, and still striking earth (see the quote from SPACE.com in my first post in this thread). I'm quite sure we'd better prepare for the worst in any case.. Better to be safe than sorry.

And the next asteroid/meteor we discover might very well be directed straight towards us, so a little practise propably won't hurt either way.

Sadena Meti
21st February 2007, 20:22
Originally posted by black coffee black metal+February 21, 2007 11:52 am--> (black coffee black metal @ February 21, 2007 11:52 am)
rev-[email protected] 21, 2007 10:47 am
I've always dreamed of living in a post apocalyptic world. Maybe I'll live to see it. Wish it would get here sooner, guess I'll have to keep in shape.
We should go practice our survival skills in the northwoods. :lol: I think that would be pretty exciting, though it sounds like this asteroid won't get us there any quicker. We'll probably do the job ourselves first anyway. [/b]
Forget the woods, I want to live in a desolate skeleton city, like in Mad Max.

In fact, the only way it would be better is if the asteroid had zombies on it.

ahab
21st February 2007, 20:51
I hope it lands on the white house lol

Red Menace
21st February 2007, 22:09
I've heard about this for a few years now. but the years have changed, before it was 2028, then 2029. I honestly don't see any reason why this thing cannot be diverted or hell, even destroyed by 2036. To me, it seems like detonating a 100 Megaton bomb right next to the thing, woudn't divert it, even in the littlest bit. and Don't tell me, such a bomb doesn't exist, the Russians blew up Tsar Bomba which was 50 Megatons, but was originally planned to be 100, but changed at last second.

Sentinel
21st February 2007, 22:27
I hope it lands on the white house lol

Yeah, that would be awesome, wouldn't it -- the entire Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area, about 8 million people or so, disintegrated. :rolleyes:

Think before you post, and stop spamming this forum for fuck sake.

bcbm
22nd February 2007, 00:07
Originally posted by rev-stoic+February 21, 2007 02:22 pm--> (rev-stoic @ February 21, 2007 02:22 pm)
Originally posted by black coffee black [email protected] 21, 2007 11:52 am

rev-[email protected] 21, 2007 10:47 am
I've always dreamed of living in a post apocalyptic world. Maybe I'll live to see it. Wish it would get here sooner, guess I'll have to keep in shape.
We should go practice our survival skills in the northwoods. :lol: I think that would be pretty exciting, though it sounds like this asteroid won't get us there any quicker. We'll probably do the job ourselves first anyway.
Forget the woods, I want to live in a desolate skeleton city, like in Mad Max.

In fact, the only way it would be better is if the asteroid had zombies on it. [/b]
Right on. I find the forests a bit more appealing, especially up north. But I would need a black metal soundtrack to really enjoy it... will there be mp3 players after armageddon?

Janus
22nd February 2007, 23:15
There was a major scare when this was first discovered but it seems now after some recent studies that it is very likely that it'll miss the critical keyhole. This is why NASA has reduced the threat level to a 0 on the Torino Scale.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

And in case of an actual possible collision, NASA has been developing spacecraft that can "destroy" such asteroids as well as other technology that will significantly reduce the risk of an impact.

ComradeRed
23rd February 2007, 02:10
Back in my day we had this thing called the "atmosphere" and the "o-zone layer" where things would burn up upon (re-)entry to Earth.

But ignoring that, the odds are something close to one in a million. Why don't you just go purchase a thousand lotto tickets? You'd have the same odds in winning the lotto as the asteroid would have of colliding into Earth.

Even if it did collide into Earth, there's not much to worry about; it would become significantly smaller due to the entry into the Earth's atmosphere. They say it will hit the pacific, so sure maybe a few islands would be doomed; but the majority of humanity will be saved.

Comrade_Scott
23rd February 2007, 04:27
stop fretting u guys realize we could all be dead by nuclear holocaust before this shit happens. we have plenty shit near and present to worry about... volcanoes for eg so hey asteroid can wait lol lets do what we can to help change what we can now we cant change that (for now anyway)

The Anarchist Prince
23rd February 2007, 05:16
Originally posted by [email protected] 22, 2007 09:10 pm
Even if it did collide into Earth, there's not much to worry about; it would become significantly smaller due to the entry into the Earth's atmosphere. They say it will hit the pacific, so sure maybe a few islands would be doomed; but the majority of humanity will be saved.
:mellow:




Yes, something more than a mile wide will dwindle down to nothing as it comes through our atmosphere at 50x the speed of sound. If it hits land, there will be a massive crater. Miles wide. The force of it would be unimaginable. You think "Oh the earth is so huge, we'd be fine." It wouldn't kill the world, but would kill millions. Now take something....say. 5-10 miles wide. The crater would be massive. Dust would smother much of the earth. An ice age would ensue. And don't say crap about it being so terribly unlikely. We barely can track these things. We've had 1km wide ones pass through our orbit a mere 6 hours after we vacated the spot. 10,000+ NEA (Near earth asteroids) exist in our solar system. I'm not saying we are going to get hit tommorow. But it's more probable than many many other end of the world scenario's.

Free Left
24th February 2007, 12:54
Even if it did collide into Earth, there's not much to worry about; it would become significantly smaller due to the entry into the Earth's atmosphere. They say it will hit the pacific, so sure maybe a few islands would be doomed; but the majority of humanity will be saved.

I wonder how big the tsunami would be if it hit the Pacific...Probably enough to wipe out at least a couple of highly populated areas such as Japan, the Philipines or even LA and the rest of the western coast.
a few islands?? I think not

What I want to know is; Will this meteorite be big enough to alter the earths climate or atmosphere cos then we'd be truly screwed.

RNK
24th February 2007, 16:47
Here's some interesting info on what might happen to the US West Coast, Japan, and Pacific Islands if an asteroid about that size hit the Earth in the middle of the Pacific ocean.

Firstly, the planet would not really be affected by the impact. There would not be any noticable change in the Earth's axis, rotation or orbit.

The energy of the impact, however, would equate to over 10,000 Megatons. As it impacts the ocean it will vaporize approximately 20 cubic miles of ocean water and create a crater about 4 miles wide on the bottom of the ocean. Residents of the West Coast and Japan would probably not feel the impact as it would only measure about a 1 on the Richter scale. However, the explosion would be very clearly audible, and tsunamis up to 30 meters tall would wash over the coasts of Japan and the US.

And if this puppy fell on land, well... it would create a fireball nearly 3 miles wide, would light people on fire 75 miles away, and drown out all noise up to 1000 miles away.

Janus
27th February 2007, 00:40
The energy of the impact, however, would equate to over 10,000 Megatons.
That estimate has been taken down to 400 MT. Still, that's a huge amount of energy and depending on the place of impact will do significant damage should it land (the odds seem pretty low now).
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

Bremsstrahlung
28th February 2007, 21:32
yeah, has been reduced to a 1 in 45,000 chance, so its safe to say it wont happen.