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Kia
19th February 2007, 22:36
US 'Iran attack plans' revealed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6376639.stm)


S contingency plans for air strikes on Iran extend beyond nuclear sites and include most of the country's military infrastructure, the BBC has learned.

It is understood that any such attack - if ordered - would target Iranian air bases, naval bases, missile facilities and command-and-control centres.

The US insists it is not planning to attack, and is trying to persuade Tehran to stop uranium enrichment.

The UN has urged Iran to stop the programme or face economic sanctions.

But diplomatic sources have told the BBC that as a fallback plan, senior officials at Central Command in Florida have already selected their target sets inside Iran.

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner says the trigger for such an attack reportedly includes any confirmation that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon - which it denies.

Alternatively, our correspondent adds, a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighbouring Iraq could also trigger a bombing campaign if it were traced directly back to Tehran.

.............etc......

There has been quite a lot of discussion on this board about the current likelihood of the US attacking Iran and what strategy they would use. So if the article is correct then an air strike on multiple military sites and nuclear sites is likely.
I'm not surprised that they have a plan of attack at all...the US probably has a plan of attack for every crisis out there. What surprises me is that it was leaked and this one is beginning to look like it might really happen. Curious on what your opinions are and how you think Iran will respond.


If anyone can find the actual document about the leak that would be great (probably impossible).

Phalanx
19th February 2007, 23:32
If Iran is attacked, they'd still have the capability to attack US interests in the Gulf, with or without airbases. My guess is that they'd turn the Revolutionary Guards into some sort of guerrilla movement in the vein of Hezbollah, and possibly flood Iraq.

The US has two choices: lose Iraq to Iran or allow Iran to get nuclear power.

piet11111
20th February 2007, 01:12
iran has hinted that it would attack its neighbouring country's oil infrastructure with its strategic missiles (that are far more advanced then iraq's missiles ever where)
it also has invested a lot of money in anti-ship missiles so i think they will probably blow up a bunch of oil tankers or a carrier group ;)

they will also activate all their "terrorist" cells in the middle east and create chaos everyware.
chances are that saudi arabia's royal family might even get overthrown as they have never been popular with the population and iran definitly has saudi arabia on its priority list because of their pro-american stance.

the entire middle east could very easily turn into a firestorm when america decides to screw iran over.

and when the middle east is a warzone we wont be getting much oil from there and that could easily lead to interesting situations.
especially russia would gain a lot of power over europe as they would be the only somewhat reliable source of oil and gas.

Raúl Duke
20th February 2007, 02:33
Also I heard that Russia has been getting closer ties to Iran since I heard in the news that they gave some missiles or missile tech to Iran. Basically if war started Russia would use it as an opportunity to increase their international standing. (basically what Putin hoped for: put russia back as a respected world power)


My guess is that they'd turn the Revolutionary Guards into some sort of guerrilla movement in the vein of Hezbollah, and possibly flood Iraq.

I heard from a magazine (time or newsweek) that near the end of the takeover of Baghdad Saddam meet with some military advisors to activate a secret resistence network (built for the purposes of re-claiming Iraq for the Bath party; but new elements have intergrated into it) and that the left-over elements become part of it. This was basically why the insurgency was big in Iraq (and the network grow larger) and since the US diverted intelligence resourced to finish their unfinish Osama business they weren't able to eliminate this network early on when it was smaller.

But if they learn from their mistakes (as they ever do <_< ) than they would stop any similar action in Iran (that being the idea of turining the Revolutionary Guards into a guerilla movement/network or the activation of any secret network)

(interestingly I heard in a book that before the war one young low-ranking US war planner thought that the Iraqi army might transform into a guerilla force to inflict high casualties on them since American population hate casualties yet no one of the group thought the same nor agreed with him because it was to late to change their war strategy)


they will also activate all their "terrorist" cells in the middle east and create chaos everyware.
chances are that saudi arabia&#39;s royal family might even get overthrown as they have never been popular with the population and iran definitly has saudi arabia on its priority list because of their pro-american stance

While the US might know this (or not since they don&#39;t seem to learn from mistakes); they would still have problem dismantling the terrorist network as current events show their problem with Al Quida or whatever else. So basically this is likely to happen in case of a war with Iran.

piet11111
20th February 2007, 03:23
russia has sold the Tor-m1 missile system (really awesome weapon check www.fas.org for details) aswell as the S-300 system to iran.

i dont recall if russia licensed iran to produce the missiles for these weaponsystems themselves but im certain russia would accept such a deal if they get enough money.

Severian
20th February 2007, 06:36
Originally posted by [email protected] 19, 2007 04:36 pm
If anyone can find the actual document about the leak that would be great (probably impossible).
Dunno about that, but if you want more info you could look at Seymour Hersh&#39;s articles on the subject.

A cautionary note: Hersh is a good investigative journalist, but he&#39;s apparently being used as a conduit by elements of the officer corps and national security bureacracy who have factional beefs with the Bush administration. That&#39;s why they&#39;re leaking plans, but it also implies they have an axe to grind.

Guerrilla22
20th February 2007, 06:51
Its pretty obvious that the US has been drawing up plans for military action against Iran. I&#39;m sure these plans have been in development for some time now.

RebelDog
20th February 2007, 07:15
From BBC article;


Alternatively, our correspondent adds, a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighbouring Iraq could also trigger a bombing campaign if it were traced directly back to Tehran.

It is likely now that when the US has a "high-casualty attack" the pentagon will be linking it to Iran, or raising the possibility to keep the temperature up. Everyone of course has heard it all before with regards to the build up to the conquest of Iraq and the US claims that Saddam Hussein was linked to Al Qaeda, which of course turned out to be untrue but planted the required seed in US minds that Saddam was linked to the events of 9/11. So long as they can build a justification in most US peoples minds for an attack then I&#39;m sure are going to attack Iran.

Whether the US proves their is a link to Tehran and US casualties in Iraq we have to ask the question, why would that be wrong? To all intents and purposes Iran would be, by the act of aiding the Iraq resistance, acting to help a counrty and its people, that has been attacked by an aggressive, imperialist super-power. Did not the outside agencies that aided the french resistance during the nazi occupation do the same?

How can the US accuse anyone of interfering in Iraq when they and the poodle UK bombed and invaded the country.