World braced for huge surge in bird flu cases

[Pawn Power]

160,000 turkeys slaughtered on farm (http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2005565,00.html)


The number of cases of the deadly bird flu virus is increasing around the world as scientists struggle to combat the disease that is now threatening to jump species and infect humans. The news comes as Britain confirmed its first ever case of H5N1 in a farm in Suffolk. More than 160,000 birds will now be slaughtered as the country's farming industry goes on high alert for more outbreaks.

So the bird flu scare could be back, even though the "threat" was never really gone. Do ya thinl this a real threat of just hype-up by the media?

[piet11111]

currently i would say hype as the bird flu is not very contagious to humans and human to human infection has not happend if im not mistaken.

if the bird flu becomes more contagious for humans and allows human to human infection then we have reason to fear.

[Kia]

The medical community seems to be pretty freaked out about it all. Whether or not the medical community is just overreacting like they did with SARS or whether or not this will turn into some panepedmic I don't know...nobody does. I think they are just being careful of making sure this doesn't happen. If the virus is able to mutate so it can be transmitted from human to human...a lot of us are in trouble. I think the medical community is smart in being overly cautious rather then brushing it off as no bid deal.

[Janus]

Do ya thinl this a real threat of just hype-up by the media?
I think that it's definitely hyped up by the media to a certain degree. Many of the countries have been dealing quite well with it so there's little chance that it'll be a worldwide pandemic despite all the fearmongering of the press.

[Qwerty Dvorak]

I heard somewhere a while back that scientists say we are something like 20 years overdue for a flu pandemic that would kill millions. Is this true?

[Janus]

It's very possible that an influenza pandemic may occur but I don't see how people can say that we are "overdue". The WHO has stated that there is a "substantial risk" of an influenza epidemic within the next few years so I suppose that we'll have to wait it out. One of the strongest candidates for the cause of this pandemic is a highly pathogenic variation of the H5N1 subtype of Influenza A virus which is rapidly mutating and could mutate into a variation that transmits easily human to human causing a pandemic, something that it wasn't able to do back in the 90's.

[Mujer Libre]

Originally posted by [email protected] 04, 2007 02:17 am
currently i would say hype as the bird flu is not very contagious to humans and human to human infection has not happend if im not mistaken.

if the bird flu becomes more contagious for humans and allows human to human infection then we have reason to fear.
Bird flu has recently been found in cats that live near areas where poultry are kept. The strain making the jump from birds to mammals is obviously a worry for humans- because of how genetically close we are to all mammals and that we live in close proximity to catsand dogs etc.

[The Bitter Hippy]

well i for one believe the doctors: bird flu seems to have the potential to cause a pandemic killing tens, if not hundreds, of millions.

Remember, spanish 'flu killed more than both world wars and the holocaust combined, and they didn't have the huge transit system we have today. Our abilities to fight it are only slightly better, and once we cycle through the available antibiotics and the virus mutates, it will be truly frightening.


BUT: (and please don't flame me), to play devils advocate for a bit:

would that really matter? OK, up to a billion people die. the world could do with depopulation. There's not much to suggest that developed nations would have any great advantage in fighting the virus in terms of casualties, because although they have greater drug resources, these will be larely ineffective for the crisis months/weeks when millions will become infected. Also, their populations are demographically more suceptible to infection, in every way.

would a 'flu pandemic actually be such a bad thing, if we take a cold and rational approach to it?

[ichneumon]

this (ecology of disease) is what i do, so for my 2 cents:

yes, there will be a pandemic. it will not likely be birdflu as we know it. the asian duck-farming industry makes this iffy, but it's not as likely as we thought. there are dozens of types of flu, and birds are the natural carriers. it's always been that way. the new H5N1 is tricky and jumps alot, but there are reasons to believe it's not such a bugbear.

diseases are appearing faster than ever before in history, and it's not due to sampling effort. 50 years ago, we honestly thought the war on disease was almost over. malaria was whooped, smallpox was being eradicated, TB was going away. that's all changed now. the diseases evolve faster than we can find new drugs. there are only a handful of anti-viral drugs, and they are expensive and toxic. westnile entered the US and swept through like a fire, and there was not a single thing we could do about it.

consider malaria - the only drug that works now is based on 2,000yr chinese medicine, and it's almost impossible to synthesize. multidrug combos work, but we can't hand them out anymore. we have to let 4,000 people die EVERY DAY just to make sure there's a medicine in reserve. as if we could even make that much artemisin, or that anyone would pay for it.

consider TB. vaccines against it don't work. it was once the scourge of our cities, but antibiotics vanquished it. well, welcome to eXtreme Drug Resistant TB (XDRTB), which is completley incurable. the cycle of HIV and poverty in africa assures that new drug resistant diseases will arise. we ignore the suffering of a continent at our peril, while the germs cook up armaggedon.

the war on disease is very real, and it's neck and neck. good luck to us...

[piet11111]

Originally posted by Mujer Libre+February 06, 2007 03:00 am--> (Mujer Libre @ February 06, 2007 03:00 am)
[email protected] 04, 2007 02:17 am
currently i would say hype as the bird flu is not very contagious to humans and human to human infection has not happend if im not mistaken.

if the bird flu becomes more contagious for humans and allows human to human infection then we have reason to fear.
Bird flu has recently been found in cats that live near areas where poultry are kept. The strain making the jump from birds to mammals is obviously a worry for humans- because of how genetically close we are to all mammals and that we live in close proximity to catsand dogs etc. [/b]
i know that the bird flu has been found in cats but the problem is with pigs.
pigs are able of being infected with avian and human virusses there avian virusses can then mutate into a version that is dangerous to humans.
the primary hotbed for these mutated virusses is china where birds and pigs are bred closely together.

bird to cat contamination is normally not possible but thanks to pigs we have a virus that can cross this species barrier.

[seraphim]

Bird flu the scariest disease since............................................. .... SARS remember that one? The media would have you believe the end was nigh!

[Knight of Cydonia]

Originally posted by [email protected] 11, 2007 01:23 am
Bird flu the scariest disease
word....
it's been like somekind of terror in my homeland so people are afraid to eat chicken and eggs.And this kind of disease are more deadly than AIDS/HIV

[ichneumon]

it's been like somekind of terror in my homeland so people are afraid to eat chicken and eggs.And this kind of disease are more deadly than AIDS/HIV

you CANNOT get H5N1 from eating well cooked chicken, duck or eggs. it's scary because it has a 75% mortality rate. consider the 1918 flu pandemic had a 2.5% mortality rate and killed 60 million people.

in general, if people would just STOP EATING MEAT, DAMMIT, many of our disease problems would vanish. that's where all the deadly e.coli strains come from, all the flus, SARS, even smallpox, thousands of years ago. in all likelihood, HIV was first transmitted from monkey to human when someone got cut butchering a monkey with SIV.

[Janus]

in general, if people would just STOP EATING MEAT
Like that's a viable or possible solution. If people stopped doing a lot of stuff, a lot of problems would end but it's never that easy.

[Coggeh]

An american company is trying to get hold of the diesease to develop a vaccine but the indonesian goverment wont hand it over because they know the company will charge outrageous prices for it which no working man will be able to afford.

[Knight of Cydonia]

just got this (http://www.tempointeractive.com/hg/nasional/2007/02/08/brk,20070208-92802,uk.html) a second ago...and i think it's maybe interesting.

[Janus]

An american company is trying to get hold of the diesease to develop a vaccine but the indonesian goverment wont hand it over because they know the company will charge outrageous prices for it which no working man will be able to afford.
It doesn't matter. They can just as well get a sample from the other countries affected by it.

Map of areas affected by avian flu (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/Global_spread_of_H5N1_map.PNG)

[Knight of Cydonia]

Originally posted by [email protected] 11, 2007 08:49 am
It doesn't matter. They can just as well get a sample from the other countries affected by it.


have any theory how to?

[Janus]

have any theory how to?
They could get a sample from any of the countries in that link I posted. The UK seems the best choice.