Jurhael
23rd October 2001, 04:52
From: http://zompist.com/predic.htm
We have seen how the 19C pundits were wrong about this century. It wouldn't be fair to close without making some equally imprudent predictions about America in the next century.
The Republicans will find that they like governing; as a result their anti-government rhetoric will fade away, to be revived only on ceremonial occasions (in much the same way that you only hear "these United States" at political conventions).
Religion is here to stay; but the fundies, frustrated with their inability to impose theocracy, will lose interest for a generation. The next time they pop up, they'll be as likely to ally with the left as with the right (especially because abortion will, I suspect, be largely eliminated by improved methods of contraception).
Liberalism will disappear-- at least in its incarnations as described above; the new movements and causes that replace it may keep the name. The political fights of 2100 will center largely around ideas that are considered impossibly idealistic or perverse today.
Conservativism will remain, of course; though it will end up implicitly accepting everything that 20C liberalism stood for.
By the end of the century, racial tensions will have been largely defused; those that remain will be a matter more of class than race. There will still be resentment of whatever group most recently immigrated, however.
Acceptance of gays and lesbians will be mainstream in a generation, and will spread to the conservative churches by the end of the century.
Collectivism will come back in a big way... but not for another generation, and Americans won't be the ones to develop it.
New forms of democratic government will be devised (again, not here; probably in Europe) that prevent the tyranny of the majority.
The important units of society will be, increasingly, not geographical units but what we might call tribes: diffuse collections of like-minded individuals who want to live life in a certain way and have broad rights and powers to do so.
When the oil runs out, mid-century, we'll finally make some progress on sustainable development.
Corporations will be run quite differently, though if I knew exactly how I'd be a business consultant, not a writer. I suspect that by present standards they'll be much more efficient, much less autonomous, and more democratically run.
Half the economy will be bit production and consumption-- an amalgam of entertainment, news and business analysis, science, education, religion, and the increasingly abstract support industries that these require. Manufacturing will be like agriculture is today: a tiny though essential sector of the economy.
The scientific study of government will make present-day political fights seem like pure foolishness. Once we actually know how to grow an economy, 20C moralisms of all political flavors will sound like leeches and electroshock therapy do today.
English won't take over the world; localism will lead to a resurgence of local languages, whose inconvenience will be mitigated by technology.
Artificial intelligence will be a significant factor, past midcentury. I suspect that human-level intelligences won't turn out to be useful-- or politically viable. Rather, we'll see lots of low-level AI in appliances, software, mechanical translators, etc.; as well as massive systems that can contemplate the affairs of an entire corporation or government.
Still no flying cars. Dammit.
A few hundred thousand people will live in space... the largest space industry being tourism. But Alpha Centauri will have to wait for the next century, at least.
The list sounds a bit utopian; but some of these changes will be accompanied by massive upheaval, violence and destruction. How pleasant a society we'll have in 2100 largely depends on how creatively we meet some of the challenges discussed above.
If there's any overarching theme here, I think it's this: historically, as we move from a world based on resource exploitation and physical power to one based on bit manipulation and intellectual power, liberalism is unstoppable. But it proceeds in half-century fits and starts. We've seen the cycle several times now: the Revolution, Romanticism, Reconstruction, the Roaring Twenties, the Radical Sixties. We surge forward, right some wrongs, indulge in various excesses, and burn out. The conservatives then come in; but the reaction doesn't last forever. Underneath the surface, the gains of the last period of exuberance are consolidated, and the next one prepares itself.
We have seen how the 19C pundits were wrong about this century. It wouldn't be fair to close without making some equally imprudent predictions about America in the next century.
The Republicans will find that they like governing; as a result their anti-government rhetoric will fade away, to be revived only on ceremonial occasions (in much the same way that you only hear "these United States" at political conventions).
Religion is here to stay; but the fundies, frustrated with their inability to impose theocracy, will lose interest for a generation. The next time they pop up, they'll be as likely to ally with the left as with the right (especially because abortion will, I suspect, be largely eliminated by improved methods of contraception).
Liberalism will disappear-- at least in its incarnations as described above; the new movements and causes that replace it may keep the name. The political fights of 2100 will center largely around ideas that are considered impossibly idealistic or perverse today.
Conservativism will remain, of course; though it will end up implicitly accepting everything that 20C liberalism stood for.
By the end of the century, racial tensions will have been largely defused; those that remain will be a matter more of class than race. There will still be resentment of whatever group most recently immigrated, however.
Acceptance of gays and lesbians will be mainstream in a generation, and will spread to the conservative churches by the end of the century.
Collectivism will come back in a big way... but not for another generation, and Americans won't be the ones to develop it.
New forms of democratic government will be devised (again, not here; probably in Europe) that prevent the tyranny of the majority.
The important units of society will be, increasingly, not geographical units but what we might call tribes: diffuse collections of like-minded individuals who want to live life in a certain way and have broad rights and powers to do so.
When the oil runs out, mid-century, we'll finally make some progress on sustainable development.
Corporations will be run quite differently, though if I knew exactly how I'd be a business consultant, not a writer. I suspect that by present standards they'll be much more efficient, much less autonomous, and more democratically run.
Half the economy will be bit production and consumption-- an amalgam of entertainment, news and business analysis, science, education, religion, and the increasingly abstract support industries that these require. Manufacturing will be like agriculture is today: a tiny though essential sector of the economy.
The scientific study of government will make present-day political fights seem like pure foolishness. Once we actually know how to grow an economy, 20C moralisms of all political flavors will sound like leeches and electroshock therapy do today.
English won't take over the world; localism will lead to a resurgence of local languages, whose inconvenience will be mitigated by technology.
Artificial intelligence will be a significant factor, past midcentury. I suspect that human-level intelligences won't turn out to be useful-- or politically viable. Rather, we'll see lots of low-level AI in appliances, software, mechanical translators, etc.; as well as massive systems that can contemplate the affairs of an entire corporation or government.
Still no flying cars. Dammit.
A few hundred thousand people will live in space... the largest space industry being tourism. But Alpha Centauri will have to wait for the next century, at least.
The list sounds a bit utopian; but some of these changes will be accompanied by massive upheaval, violence and destruction. How pleasant a society we'll have in 2100 largely depends on how creatively we meet some of the challenges discussed above.
If there's any overarching theme here, I think it's this: historically, as we move from a world based on resource exploitation and physical power to one based on bit manipulation and intellectual power, liberalism is unstoppable. But it proceeds in half-century fits and starts. We've seen the cycle several times now: the Revolution, Romanticism, Reconstruction, the Roaring Twenties, the Radical Sixties. We surge forward, right some wrongs, indulge in various excesses, and burn out. The conservatives then come in; but the reaction doesn't last forever. Underneath the surface, the gains of the last period of exuberance are consolidated, and the next one prepares itself.