SPK
20th December 2006, 08:32
Originally posted by
[email protected] 19, 2006 07:22 am
an economic crisis in america would also turn around to kick europe in the nuts.
if this happens fast enough it might just cause the biggest crisis of capitalism since the great depression.
A decrease in the value of the dollar, which is already underway, will increase the cost of products imported into the usa -- since more dollars will have to be exchanged to get the same amount of foreign currency (yen, euro, yuan). That would certainly harm the EU, China, and Japan, at least in the short run, since a high proportion of their manufactured goods are for export markets, not internal, consumer or business markets. A reduction of demand from the usa could very well push these countries, and the international economy as a whole, into recession.
They could try to increase internal demand, in order to absorb the goods that no longer have a foreign (amerikan) outlet. China's economy is growing at about 10% annually, so its internal market is rapidly developing -- people there are able to buy more cars, houses, and so on. The question is whether or not this is happening fast enough to offset reduced amerikan demand.
Japan's economy is quite weak and went through a deflationary phase in the nineties. Should a global recession cause overall prices to drop there again, Japan will probably not be able to rely on its internal markets (setting aside other important questions). If, as an example, consumers could purchase something for 1,000 yen one year, but for only 950 yen the next year, there will a tendency for people to hold onto their money and wait for lower costs, reducing overall demand.
The EU is in a stronger position, and the bourgeoisie there probably has more options in terms of strengthening internal markets.