Comrade-Z
6th November 2006, 22:48
It's like watching a re-run of a bad movie.
In Russia, schisms are evident on unity day
The new holiday has become a rallying cry for ultranationalists.
By David Holley
Times Staff Writer
November 5, 2006
MOSCOW — Ultranationalists staged marches in cities across Russia on Saturday as far-right activists and their critics tussled over what kind of symbolism to attach to the country's new National Unity Day holiday.
About 4,000 demonstrators gathered at a Moscow square for a rally shouted, "Russia for Russians!" and anti-Semitic slogans. More than 1,000 police officers stood guard nearby. The protesters then left the square for a march, which had been banned, and police detained dozens of people, mainly those carrying flags or banners.
A female Russian journalist was hit several times in the face by a protester as the ultranationalists gathered, the Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported. A suspect was arrested, it said.
Rally organizers said police beat some protesters while detaining them. More than 200 protesters were detained on their way to the rally, RIA Novosti said, quoting a police source.
In St. Petersburg, police used tear gas to break up a fistfight on the city's main street that involved about 200 ultranationalist marchers and a group of leftist activists, the news agency Interfax said.
About 10 participants in a banned march in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk were detained for questioning, according to Interfax.
Last year, ultranationalists staging a march to mark the first year of the new holiday gave the Nazi salute and shouted, "Heil Hitler!" That prompted public criticism that led to a decision this year by authorities in Moscow and many other cities to ban such marches.
Kremlin authorities came up with the National Unity Day holiday to replace the traditional Nov. 7 celebration of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. Since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Communists had marked the Nov. 7 holiday with protests against policies that have led to a sharp increase in the gap between rich and poor.
The new holiday is pegged to Moscow's liberation in 1612 from Polish invaders, helping ultranationalists to imbue it with sentiment against non-Russian ethnic groups, even though those who designed it meant to emphasize national unity.
The ultranationalist rally in Moscow was allowed to take place because the small, right-wing People's Will party had received a demonstration permit, and then larger groups that had been unable to obtain permission for a rally or march joined that event.
Human rights organizations and democracy parties held an officially sanctioned counter-rally that drew about 1,000 demonstrators to a different part of Moscow to denounce fascism.
A neo-Nazi group had made threats on its website to attack that rally, which was also held under heavy police guard. Participants were required to show identity documents and pass through metal detectors before being allowed to the rally site.
A group of youths appeared on the far side of a canal from the anti-fascist rally, shouting insults. Police detained at least a dozen of them, but the two sides did not physically clash.
Nationwide, officially sanctioned celebratory events were held in 136 towns and cities, with more than 150,000 people taking part, and more than 25,000 police officers deployed to maintain order, Interfax reported.
"In some places, hooligans have made attempts to break through to sites of mass events," said First Deputy Interior Minister Alexander Chekalin. "Offenders and persons who were in a state of intoxication have been brought to police stations and will be prosecuted."
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin addressed a Kremlin reception to mark the holiday, RIA Novosti reported.
"For modern Russia, National Unity Day is a holiday of the entire society, a day when we pay tribute to centuries-old traditions of patriotism, accord and unity of the nation," Putin said, addressing an audience that included teachers of Russian language and literature and Russians living abroad.
At the ultranationalist rally in Moscow, a 16-year-old boy who gave his name as "Igor the Devil" complained about police detentions of protesters.
"It is disgusting how the Russian police beat us and put us in jail for the fact that we say loudly that we are Russians," he said.
"If Jews or Muslims or others get together and do something publicly, it is OK," he continued. "When Russians get together it is a crime. My friends and I will change the situation when we get a little older. Just wait and you will see. We will give our country back to the Russians."
Alexander Vdovin, 34, a metallurgic engineer, asserted that even though Putin was Russian, he was too beholden to wealthy Jewish businessmen to promote the interests of ethnic Russians.
"This holiday today gives us a possibility to march and rally as representatives of the subjugated and humiliated Russian majority in our own country," Vdovin said.
Sergei Baburin, a member of the lower house of parliament who heads the People's Will party, said in a speech at this same rally that former Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin's promotion of the concept "Russian citizen" was a "weapon" used against ethnic Russians.
"Today we're saying that we are Russian people, and the future of Europe, and the future of the world, depends on Russians," Baburin said. "Glory to Russia!"
At the anti-fascist rally, some of the speakers said that they were the true Russian patriots.
"It is a great pity that patriotic slogans and ideas were hijacked by people who have nothing in common with patriotism," said Nikita Belykh, leader of the pro-democracy Union of Right Forces party.
"I'm Russian, and I'm proud to be Russian. I want my Georgian friends to be proud to be Georgians. I want all people to be proud of their nationality. Those people who say they are patriots and marching at these rallies are not patriots themselves."
The ultranationalist marchers talk about Russians facing subjugation, but they are promoting xenophobia, Belykh said.
"It's impossible to build patriotism on an inferiority complex," he continued.
"I'm sure that soon we'll be able to say, 'Glory to Russia,' understanding that it's not a nationalistic slogan…. Glory to Russia!"
Sergei Mitrokhin, deputy head of the liberal Yabloko party, told the same rally that "fascism is against our country, because it breeds inter-ethnic hostility."
He noted how Serbian nationalism had played a key role in the breakup of Yugoslavia.
"We are Russian patriots. We will not allow this," Mitrokhin declared. "Fascists — get out of Russia!"
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/faireno...latimes542.html (http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/latimes542.html)
---------------------------------------
Let's assume that Russia's February Revolution was its "1789" and that the Soviet Union was Russia's "Bonapartist Despotism." So maybe it's like 1925 in Russia. Or maybe Russia is way past that, and this is all a temporary phenomenon that will blow over soon. Let's investigate:
Some stats on Russia from http://www.atlapedia.com/online/countries/russia.htm :
DEMOGRAPHIC/VITAL STATISTICS: Density; 9 persons per sq km (22 persons per sq mi) (1993). Urban-Rural; 73.7% urban, 26.3% rural (1992). Sex Distribution; 47.0% male, 53.0% female (1992). Life Expectancy at Birth; 63.5 years male, 74.3 years female (1991). Age Breakdown; 23% under 15, 21% 15 to 29, 24% 30 to 44, 16% 45 to 59, 10% 60 to 69, 6% 70 and over (1992). Birth Rate; 12.1 per 1,000 (1991). Death Rate; 11.4 per 1,000 (1991). Increase Rate; 0.7 per 1,000 (1991). Infant Mortality Rate; 17.8 per 1,000 live births (1991).
Education:
Literacy: 99.6 %
www.nationmaster.com
ECONOMY: Gross National Product; USD $349,062,000,000 (1993). Public Debt; USD $130,800,000,000 (1995). Imports; USD $28,135,000,000 (1994). Exports; USD $49,935,000,000 (1994). Tourism Receipts; N/A. Balance of Trade; USD $21,800,000,000 (1994). Economically Active Population; 74,590,000 or 50.4% of total population (1994). Unemployed; 18.1% (1995).
Nominal GDP per capita: $4,060.77
(www.nationmaster.com)
External Debt Owed: $175,900,000,000.00 (#6 in the world).
(www.nationmaster.com)
TRANSPORT: Railroads; route length 158,100 km (98,239 mi) (1992), passenger-km 254,700,000,000 (158,263,000,000 passenger-mi) (1992), cargo ton-km 2,326,000,000 (1,593,000,000 short ton-mi) (1992). Roads; length 893,000 km (554,884 mi) (1992). Vehicles; cars 9,661,000 (1992), trucks and buses 465,000 (1992). Merchant Marine; N/A. Air Transport; passenger-km 150,400,000,000 (93,454,000,000 passenger-mi) (1992), cargo ton-km 2,400,000 (1,644,000 short ton-mi) (1992).
(Does it strike you that Russia doesn't have a lot of automobiles at all?)
% Atheist/Agnostic/Nonbeliever in God: 24-48%
(http://www.adherents.com/largecom/com_atheist.html)
While some of these stats were taken from back around 1991, I doubt they have changed much since then (and if so, then probably for the worse).
This web site is very interesting:
http://www.gongol.com/research/economics/growthstages/
Near the bottom there is a chart that suggests the stages at which various countries find themselves right now compared to benchmarks in U.S. demographic history.
Country Pop GDP Telephones Life Expectancy Literacy (M) Literacy (F) Ag Electricity
Bangladesh 1950 1930 1900 1940 1900 1900 1940 1910
Brazil 1970 1940 1980 1980 1900 1900 1960 1950
China Now 1930 1980 1980 1900 1900 1950 1940
Egypt 1910 1930 1950 1980 1900 1900 1950 1940
Ethiopia 1900 1930 1900 1910 1900 1900 1930 1900
France 1900 1990 Now Now Now Now Now 1970
Germany 1910 1990 Now Now Now Now Now 1970
India Now 1930 1920 1950 1900 1900 1930 1920
Indonesia 1990 1930 1980 1960 1900 1900 1950 1920
Iran 1900 1930 1980 1970 1900 1900 1950 1950
Japan 1940 1990 Now Now Now Now Now 1970
Mexico 1920 1950 1980 1990 1910 1910 1980 1950
Nigeria 1940 1930 1900 1900 1900 1900 1930 1910
Pakistan 1960 1930 1900 1950 1900 1900 1930 1920
Philippines 1910 1930 1980 1970 1920 1920 1950 1930
Russia 1950 1950 1980 1950 Now Now 1970 1970
Thailand 1900 1940 1980 1980 1910 1910 1960 1940
Turkey 1900 1930 Now 1980 1900 1900 1960 1950
United States Now Now Now Now 1960 1960 Now 1990
Vietnam 1910 1930 1920 1970 1900 1900 1940 1920
So Russia is quite backward compared to the present-day U.S. and could perhaps be compared to WWII Germany.
Now let's look at Germany around the time of WWII and see what kind of situation it was in:
Urbanization: 67%+
"By the 1930s over two-thirds of Germans lived in towns and cities."
http://www.amazon.com/Experience-1900-1945...y/dp/0415121140 (http://www.amazon.com/Experience-1900-1945-Routledge-Sources-History/dp/0415121140)
(Russia's urbanization is a little better than Nazi-era Germany).
Education:
"At the end of the century, Germany was benefiting from a literacy rate of 99.9 percent and education levels that provided Germany with its engineers, chemists, opticians, skilled workers for its factories, skilled managers, knowledgeable farmers and skilled military personnel."
http://www.fsmitha.com/h3/h49soc.htm
(Russia's education is a little bit worse than Nazi-era Germany).
Economy:
Germany's Nominal GDP per capita in 1900: $3,134.00
Germany's Nominal GDP per capita in 1950: less than $$7,218.00
(It looks like Germany's GDP per capita during the Nazi era was about the same as Russia's GDP per capita now. So, roughly the same level of economic development).
www.nationmaster.com
Of course we know that pre-Nazi-era Germany owed external debt up the wazoo. Perhaps this is something that present-day Russians are reacting against--hence the old scapegoat of the "Jewish capitalists" creeping back up again now in Russia.
Transport:
This was the only thing I was able to find:
"This 1936 poster urges people to vote for Hitler by noting what he has done to promote automobile ownership in Germany. The caption: "The Führer promised to motorize Germany. In 1932, 104,000 motor vehicles were manufactured, 33,000 people were employed, and goods with a total value of 295,000,000 marks were produced. In 1935, 353,000 vehicles were manufactured, Over 100,000 people were employed, and the value of goods produced was 1,150,000,000 marks. The Führer gave 250,000 people's comrades jobs in the auto industry and its suppliers. German people: Thank the Führer on 29 March! Give him your vote!" Courtesy of Dr. Robert D. Brooks."
http://www.calvin.edu/academic/cas/gpa/posters2.htm
So, if Germany was producing 200,000 vehicles per year since, let's say, 1910 or so when the automobile became a big hit, then Germany would have about 4 million automobiles by 1930, which, on a per capita basis, is about the same as what the Russian population has right now.
So, overall, present-day Russia is at about the same level of economic development that Germany was at in 1930 or so. I won't say it's certain, but I think there's a good possibility that Russia will experience a mass movement for fascism and expansionism within the next 10 years. Some Russians, especially those of the peasantry, middle-class, and capitalist class who depend upon export markets for their wealth, probably look back on the imperial possessions of the USSR with nostalgia. Some of these middle-class people probably see much to be gained by creating a mass movement for expansionism, class peace and unity, and increased war spending, thinking that this will help them economically.
It's possible that Russia's recent disputes with Georgia (a former Russian imperial territory) are just a taste of things to come. Same thing with Russia's ongoing disputes with Chechen rebels. It's possible that, within the next 10 years, we may see a fascist mass movement develop in Russia that itches for a new "Greater Russia" empire encompassing most or all of its former imperial possessions. We might even be introduced to the Russian words for "lebensraum" and "volkskampf." :o
In Russia, schisms are evident on unity day
The new holiday has become a rallying cry for ultranationalists.
By David Holley
Times Staff Writer
November 5, 2006
MOSCOW — Ultranationalists staged marches in cities across Russia on Saturday as far-right activists and their critics tussled over what kind of symbolism to attach to the country's new National Unity Day holiday.
About 4,000 demonstrators gathered at a Moscow square for a rally shouted, "Russia for Russians!" and anti-Semitic slogans. More than 1,000 police officers stood guard nearby. The protesters then left the square for a march, which had been banned, and police detained dozens of people, mainly those carrying flags or banners.
A female Russian journalist was hit several times in the face by a protester as the ultranationalists gathered, the Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported. A suspect was arrested, it said.
Rally organizers said police beat some protesters while detaining them. More than 200 protesters were detained on their way to the rally, RIA Novosti said, quoting a police source.
In St. Petersburg, police used tear gas to break up a fistfight on the city's main street that involved about 200 ultranationalist marchers and a group of leftist activists, the news agency Interfax said.
About 10 participants in a banned march in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk were detained for questioning, according to Interfax.
Last year, ultranationalists staging a march to mark the first year of the new holiday gave the Nazi salute and shouted, "Heil Hitler!" That prompted public criticism that led to a decision this year by authorities in Moscow and many other cities to ban such marches.
Kremlin authorities came up with the National Unity Day holiday to replace the traditional Nov. 7 celebration of the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. Since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Communists had marked the Nov. 7 holiday with protests against policies that have led to a sharp increase in the gap between rich and poor.
The new holiday is pegged to Moscow's liberation in 1612 from Polish invaders, helping ultranationalists to imbue it with sentiment against non-Russian ethnic groups, even though those who designed it meant to emphasize national unity.
The ultranationalist rally in Moscow was allowed to take place because the small, right-wing People's Will party had received a demonstration permit, and then larger groups that had been unable to obtain permission for a rally or march joined that event.
Human rights organizations and democracy parties held an officially sanctioned counter-rally that drew about 1,000 demonstrators to a different part of Moscow to denounce fascism.
A neo-Nazi group had made threats on its website to attack that rally, which was also held under heavy police guard. Participants were required to show identity documents and pass through metal detectors before being allowed to the rally site.
A group of youths appeared on the far side of a canal from the anti-fascist rally, shouting insults. Police detained at least a dozen of them, but the two sides did not physically clash.
Nationwide, officially sanctioned celebratory events were held in 136 towns and cities, with more than 150,000 people taking part, and more than 25,000 police officers deployed to maintain order, Interfax reported.
"In some places, hooligans have made attempts to break through to sites of mass events," said First Deputy Interior Minister Alexander Chekalin. "Offenders and persons who were in a state of intoxication have been brought to police stations and will be prosecuted."
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin addressed a Kremlin reception to mark the holiday, RIA Novosti reported.
"For modern Russia, National Unity Day is a holiday of the entire society, a day when we pay tribute to centuries-old traditions of patriotism, accord and unity of the nation," Putin said, addressing an audience that included teachers of Russian language and literature and Russians living abroad.
At the ultranationalist rally in Moscow, a 16-year-old boy who gave his name as "Igor the Devil" complained about police detentions of protesters.
"It is disgusting how the Russian police beat us and put us in jail for the fact that we say loudly that we are Russians," he said.
"If Jews or Muslims or others get together and do something publicly, it is OK," he continued. "When Russians get together it is a crime. My friends and I will change the situation when we get a little older. Just wait and you will see. We will give our country back to the Russians."
Alexander Vdovin, 34, a metallurgic engineer, asserted that even though Putin was Russian, he was too beholden to wealthy Jewish businessmen to promote the interests of ethnic Russians.
"This holiday today gives us a possibility to march and rally as representatives of the subjugated and humiliated Russian majority in our own country," Vdovin said.
Sergei Baburin, a member of the lower house of parliament who heads the People's Will party, said in a speech at this same rally that former Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin's promotion of the concept "Russian citizen" was a "weapon" used against ethnic Russians.
"Today we're saying that we are Russian people, and the future of Europe, and the future of the world, depends on Russians," Baburin said. "Glory to Russia!"
At the anti-fascist rally, some of the speakers said that they were the true Russian patriots.
"It is a great pity that patriotic slogans and ideas were hijacked by people who have nothing in common with patriotism," said Nikita Belykh, leader of the pro-democracy Union of Right Forces party.
"I'm Russian, and I'm proud to be Russian. I want my Georgian friends to be proud to be Georgians. I want all people to be proud of their nationality. Those people who say they are patriots and marching at these rallies are not patriots themselves."
The ultranationalist marchers talk about Russians facing subjugation, but they are promoting xenophobia, Belykh said.
"It's impossible to build patriotism on an inferiority complex," he continued.
"I'm sure that soon we'll be able to say, 'Glory to Russia,' understanding that it's not a nationalistic slogan…. Glory to Russia!"
Sergei Mitrokhin, deputy head of the liberal Yabloko party, told the same rally that "fascism is against our country, because it breeds inter-ethnic hostility."
He noted how Serbian nationalism had played a key role in the breakup of Yugoslavia.
"We are Russian patriots. We will not allow this," Mitrokhin declared. "Fascists — get out of Russia!"
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/faireno...latimes542.html (http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/latimes542.html)
---------------------------------------
Let's assume that Russia's February Revolution was its "1789" and that the Soviet Union was Russia's "Bonapartist Despotism." So maybe it's like 1925 in Russia. Or maybe Russia is way past that, and this is all a temporary phenomenon that will blow over soon. Let's investigate:
Some stats on Russia from http://www.atlapedia.com/online/countries/russia.htm :
DEMOGRAPHIC/VITAL STATISTICS: Density; 9 persons per sq km (22 persons per sq mi) (1993). Urban-Rural; 73.7% urban, 26.3% rural (1992). Sex Distribution; 47.0% male, 53.0% female (1992). Life Expectancy at Birth; 63.5 years male, 74.3 years female (1991). Age Breakdown; 23% under 15, 21% 15 to 29, 24% 30 to 44, 16% 45 to 59, 10% 60 to 69, 6% 70 and over (1992). Birth Rate; 12.1 per 1,000 (1991). Death Rate; 11.4 per 1,000 (1991). Increase Rate; 0.7 per 1,000 (1991). Infant Mortality Rate; 17.8 per 1,000 live births (1991).
Education:
Literacy: 99.6 %
www.nationmaster.com
ECONOMY: Gross National Product; USD $349,062,000,000 (1993). Public Debt; USD $130,800,000,000 (1995). Imports; USD $28,135,000,000 (1994). Exports; USD $49,935,000,000 (1994). Tourism Receipts; N/A. Balance of Trade; USD $21,800,000,000 (1994). Economically Active Population; 74,590,000 or 50.4% of total population (1994). Unemployed; 18.1% (1995).
Nominal GDP per capita: $4,060.77
(www.nationmaster.com)
External Debt Owed: $175,900,000,000.00 (#6 in the world).
(www.nationmaster.com)
TRANSPORT: Railroads; route length 158,100 km (98,239 mi) (1992), passenger-km 254,700,000,000 (158,263,000,000 passenger-mi) (1992), cargo ton-km 2,326,000,000 (1,593,000,000 short ton-mi) (1992). Roads; length 893,000 km (554,884 mi) (1992). Vehicles; cars 9,661,000 (1992), trucks and buses 465,000 (1992). Merchant Marine; N/A. Air Transport; passenger-km 150,400,000,000 (93,454,000,000 passenger-mi) (1992), cargo ton-km 2,400,000 (1,644,000 short ton-mi) (1992).
(Does it strike you that Russia doesn't have a lot of automobiles at all?)
% Atheist/Agnostic/Nonbeliever in God: 24-48%
(http://www.adherents.com/largecom/com_atheist.html)
While some of these stats were taken from back around 1991, I doubt they have changed much since then (and if so, then probably for the worse).
This web site is very interesting:
http://www.gongol.com/research/economics/growthstages/
Near the bottom there is a chart that suggests the stages at which various countries find themselves right now compared to benchmarks in U.S. demographic history.
Country Pop GDP Telephones Life Expectancy Literacy (M) Literacy (F) Ag Electricity
Bangladesh 1950 1930 1900 1940 1900 1900 1940 1910
Brazil 1970 1940 1980 1980 1900 1900 1960 1950
China Now 1930 1980 1980 1900 1900 1950 1940
Egypt 1910 1930 1950 1980 1900 1900 1950 1940
Ethiopia 1900 1930 1900 1910 1900 1900 1930 1900
France 1900 1990 Now Now Now Now Now 1970
Germany 1910 1990 Now Now Now Now Now 1970
India Now 1930 1920 1950 1900 1900 1930 1920
Indonesia 1990 1930 1980 1960 1900 1900 1950 1920
Iran 1900 1930 1980 1970 1900 1900 1950 1950
Japan 1940 1990 Now Now Now Now Now 1970
Mexico 1920 1950 1980 1990 1910 1910 1980 1950
Nigeria 1940 1930 1900 1900 1900 1900 1930 1910
Pakistan 1960 1930 1900 1950 1900 1900 1930 1920
Philippines 1910 1930 1980 1970 1920 1920 1950 1930
Russia 1950 1950 1980 1950 Now Now 1970 1970
Thailand 1900 1940 1980 1980 1910 1910 1960 1940
Turkey 1900 1930 Now 1980 1900 1900 1960 1950
United States Now Now Now Now 1960 1960 Now 1990
Vietnam 1910 1930 1920 1970 1900 1900 1940 1920
So Russia is quite backward compared to the present-day U.S. and could perhaps be compared to WWII Germany.
Now let's look at Germany around the time of WWII and see what kind of situation it was in:
Urbanization: 67%+
"By the 1930s over two-thirds of Germans lived in towns and cities."
http://www.amazon.com/Experience-1900-1945...y/dp/0415121140 (http://www.amazon.com/Experience-1900-1945-Routledge-Sources-History/dp/0415121140)
(Russia's urbanization is a little better than Nazi-era Germany).
Education:
"At the end of the century, Germany was benefiting from a literacy rate of 99.9 percent and education levels that provided Germany with its engineers, chemists, opticians, skilled workers for its factories, skilled managers, knowledgeable farmers and skilled military personnel."
http://www.fsmitha.com/h3/h49soc.htm
(Russia's education is a little bit worse than Nazi-era Germany).
Economy:
Germany's Nominal GDP per capita in 1900: $3,134.00
Germany's Nominal GDP per capita in 1950: less than $$7,218.00
(It looks like Germany's GDP per capita during the Nazi era was about the same as Russia's GDP per capita now. So, roughly the same level of economic development).
www.nationmaster.com
Of course we know that pre-Nazi-era Germany owed external debt up the wazoo. Perhaps this is something that present-day Russians are reacting against--hence the old scapegoat of the "Jewish capitalists" creeping back up again now in Russia.
Transport:
This was the only thing I was able to find:
"This 1936 poster urges people to vote for Hitler by noting what he has done to promote automobile ownership in Germany. The caption: "The Führer promised to motorize Germany. In 1932, 104,000 motor vehicles were manufactured, 33,000 people were employed, and goods with a total value of 295,000,000 marks were produced. In 1935, 353,000 vehicles were manufactured, Over 100,000 people were employed, and the value of goods produced was 1,150,000,000 marks. The Führer gave 250,000 people's comrades jobs in the auto industry and its suppliers. German people: Thank the Führer on 29 March! Give him your vote!" Courtesy of Dr. Robert D. Brooks."
http://www.calvin.edu/academic/cas/gpa/posters2.htm
So, if Germany was producing 200,000 vehicles per year since, let's say, 1910 or so when the automobile became a big hit, then Germany would have about 4 million automobiles by 1930, which, on a per capita basis, is about the same as what the Russian population has right now.
So, overall, present-day Russia is at about the same level of economic development that Germany was at in 1930 or so. I won't say it's certain, but I think there's a good possibility that Russia will experience a mass movement for fascism and expansionism within the next 10 years. Some Russians, especially those of the peasantry, middle-class, and capitalist class who depend upon export markets for their wealth, probably look back on the imperial possessions of the USSR with nostalgia. Some of these middle-class people probably see much to be gained by creating a mass movement for expansionism, class peace and unity, and increased war spending, thinking that this will help them economically.
It's possible that Russia's recent disputes with Georgia (a former Russian imperial territory) are just a taste of things to come. Same thing with Russia's ongoing disputes with Chechen rebels. It's possible that, within the next 10 years, we may see a fascist mass movement develop in Russia that itches for a new "Greater Russia" empire encompassing most or all of its former imperial possessions. We might even be introduced to the Russian words for "lebensraum" and "volkskampf." :o