Severian
15th August 2006, 11:45
So far, the cease-fire appears to be mostly holding. Hezbollah has reserved the right to fight against Israeli forces still in Lebanon - and the UN resolution doesn't require Israel to wholly cease fire, just to cease "offensive operations". But both are being restrained so far.
The war may well be over - and what are the results so far?
Thousands of south Lebanese villagers (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060815.wreturn0815/BNStory/Front) are returning to their homes en masse, many waving flags or giving the "V" sign.
For weeks, both Israel and Washington rejected an immediate cease-fire on any terms. Because they know they can't hope to accomplish through negotiations, anything they fail to accomplish on the battlefield.
And they have failed to smash Hezbollah - or even its capacity to launch rockets deep into Israel. Bizarrely, Israel seemed to hope, initially, that they could do this from the air. Then they launched a poorly-prepared ground offensive, which only gave Hezbollah fighters a chance to try out their antitank missiles.
Neither the Lebanese army nor the UN force will try to take on Hezbollah in combat, where the IDF failed. (As their spokesmen have made clear, if the relationship of forces didn't make it already clear enough.) Bush is trying to declare victory, saying these forces will replace Hezbollah's "state within a state"...but it's unlikely that will happen in any way that benefits Washington.
Some negotiated agreement might result in Hezbollah's withdrawal from the southern part of Lebanon, or who knows, its merger with the Lebanese army. Neither development would be any reason for working people to feel disappointed....or much reason for Tel Aviv or Washington to celebrate.
The imperialists have also failed to exploit Lebanon's deep religious-sectarian divisions. They hoped that members of other sects would blame Hezbollah for precipitating the conflict. (As if this wasn't a pre-planned U.S.-Israeli war in search of an excuse.) Some initial responses from Arab regimes, especially the Saudi monarchy, seemed to vindicate that hope. But it didn't last.
Instead, support for Hezbollah has risen in Lebanon and other Arab countries, as measured by opinion polls. Everyone has seen Hezbollah's militia remains the one armed force capable of blunting an Israeli invasion. Lebanese Christians and others have given shelter to the refugees, mostly Shi'a Muslims. If anything, this conflict has tended to reduce the sectarian divisions in the Arab countries, which have been fanned by events in Iraq, among other things.
And of course, people stubbornly persist in thinking that governments are responsible for their actions. So when Israeli jets flatten their houses, destroy bridges and trucks, leave people stranded without food....the Israeli government is responsible for that.
The Israeli ruling class is well aware that they've failed to acheive their goals - and unlike Bush, is barely trying to deny it.
Washington Post- Olmert accepts blame for operations "failings". (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/14/AR2006081401266.html) The Israeli army brass is also coming in for criticism for failing to supply soldiers, for underestimating its opponent, etc.
More bitter recriminations in the Israeli parliament (http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/15273211.htm)
Those are not the voices of a victorious ruling class.
The war may well be over - and what are the results so far?
Thousands of south Lebanese villagers (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060815.wreturn0815/BNStory/Front) are returning to their homes en masse, many waving flags or giving the "V" sign.
For weeks, both Israel and Washington rejected an immediate cease-fire on any terms. Because they know they can't hope to accomplish through negotiations, anything they fail to accomplish on the battlefield.
And they have failed to smash Hezbollah - or even its capacity to launch rockets deep into Israel. Bizarrely, Israel seemed to hope, initially, that they could do this from the air. Then they launched a poorly-prepared ground offensive, which only gave Hezbollah fighters a chance to try out their antitank missiles.
Neither the Lebanese army nor the UN force will try to take on Hezbollah in combat, where the IDF failed. (As their spokesmen have made clear, if the relationship of forces didn't make it already clear enough.) Bush is trying to declare victory, saying these forces will replace Hezbollah's "state within a state"...but it's unlikely that will happen in any way that benefits Washington.
Some negotiated agreement might result in Hezbollah's withdrawal from the southern part of Lebanon, or who knows, its merger with the Lebanese army. Neither development would be any reason for working people to feel disappointed....or much reason for Tel Aviv or Washington to celebrate.
The imperialists have also failed to exploit Lebanon's deep religious-sectarian divisions. They hoped that members of other sects would blame Hezbollah for precipitating the conflict. (As if this wasn't a pre-planned U.S.-Israeli war in search of an excuse.) Some initial responses from Arab regimes, especially the Saudi monarchy, seemed to vindicate that hope. But it didn't last.
Instead, support for Hezbollah has risen in Lebanon and other Arab countries, as measured by opinion polls. Everyone has seen Hezbollah's militia remains the one armed force capable of blunting an Israeli invasion. Lebanese Christians and others have given shelter to the refugees, mostly Shi'a Muslims. If anything, this conflict has tended to reduce the sectarian divisions in the Arab countries, which have been fanned by events in Iraq, among other things.
And of course, people stubbornly persist in thinking that governments are responsible for their actions. So when Israeli jets flatten their houses, destroy bridges and trucks, leave people stranded without food....the Israeli government is responsible for that.
The Israeli ruling class is well aware that they've failed to acheive their goals - and unlike Bush, is barely trying to deny it.
Washington Post- Olmert accepts blame for operations "failings". (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/14/AR2006081401266.html) The Israeli army brass is also coming in for criticism for failing to supply soldiers, for underestimating its opponent, etc.
More bitter recriminations in the Israeli parliament (http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/15273211.htm)
Those are not the voices of a victorious ruling class.