Originally posted by
[email protected] 4 2006, 10:22 PM
Less likely would be such sharp resistance that the US loses heart and retreated, leaving Cuba to the Fidelismo outcome.
Is the author claiming that Cubans will not fight heavily against the U.S. forces?
I will seriously imagine the Cubans blowing the U.S. forces into tiny bits of flesh through guerilla warfare.
Not everyone is totally for the regime but a lot, a lot of people will fight to death even if it means they themselves will not see a free, independent Cuba without U.S. control.
I also think it is stupid to say that if the U.S. would leave after an invasion, Cuba would turn fidelismo. New groups would probably be formed and one of those or a coalition of some of those could take power.
My understanding is different. In my opinion the auther suggests again and again that the aggressive policies of the US government towards Cuba generate support for the current Cuban regime.
Examples:
US antagonism makes the defiance of the current regime necessary in the eyes of many Cubans.
Many Cubans would wish to prevent the opening for direct intervention by the US that this would open up.
The error the author does is more about his understanding about what "democrazy" means. For instance, does he really believe the US would change their policies if the PCC won the free election? Where, ever, has that happened? The last 100 years are full of examples of what the US meaning of "democrazy" means. When they talk about democrazy they talk about right-wing governments. If there is free elections or not has nothing to do with it. If the government support whatever the US does, they are according to washington a democrazy, even tough the landfills are full of the bodies from opposition. like El Salvador in the 80s. At the same time a left-wing, or not necesserily left-wing, but even just US-critical government, its a dictatorship, even tough there are both free elections and most media are controlled by the opposition. Like Venezuela today, the government are labelled authoritorian or dictatorship by Washington.
Would the US favor a democratic Cuba with a left-wing president? no. look to nicaragua, Chile Bolivia, Venezuela or Persia/Iran.
But washington will never allow a truly free election on Cuba. Whatever the cuban government does the cuban people will have to vote with the threat of continued US-blocade if they where to choose the "wrong" governemnt. Just like the nicaraguans 16 years ago had to vote knowing that renewed support for the sandinastas would result in a renewed support from the US to the terrorist organisation of Contras.
For the Cubans to experience true democrazy the main change of politics has to be done in Washington.