Sectarian Divisions In Lebanon?

[Janus]

The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has deepened Lebanon's sectarian divisions, threatening to shatter the fragile peace in a country still haunted by civil war.

Hezbollah's opponents widely blame the Shiite guerrilla group for dragging Lebanon into a ruinous war with its July 12 capture of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. In the future they are sure to be more aggressive dealing with a group that has been nearly autonomous in southern Lebanon.

Sectarian divisions deepening in Lebanon (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060725/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_trouble_ahead_1;_ylt=AunTtZsrz1y1 rVkt4jQWFiEUvioA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRP UCUl)

Do you think that a civil war could result when/if the Israelis pull out?

[Enragé]

no, christian leader Aoun even said he supported Hezbollah because they were defending lebanese soil

[Kaboly]

Sure, I think that it is definitely possible for civil war to break out, Hezbollah has been a big part of Lebanon and I think if Israel doesn't destroy it they will severely weaken it and some will see this as an opportune time to fill the gap left by the absence of the organization. I think it is more likely though that Israel is there to stay, with the U.S. aiding them I think that occupation will be the end result.

[bolshevik butcher]

This is one of the reasons as marxists we should not support Hezbollah. They are not capable of effectivley fighting Israel for several reasons, but the most major is, as shown here that they are not able to unite the Lebanesse working class and have no interst in doing so.

[Severian]

Background: Thread from last year where a Lebanese poster gives some info on Lebanon's sectarian political system (http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=34699)

I think the main danger of internal conflict in Lebanon comes from the U.S./Israeli demands that the Lebanese government act against Hezbollah.

They've long demanded the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah and take control of the southern border region. To which Beirut has responded: us and what army?

But if Israel damages Hezbollah sufficiently - a big if - there'll likely be an attempt for a Lebanese government or "international peacekeeping" force to take control of that area. There'll be a lot of pressure for the Lebanese government to act - or potentially face another attack.

A really dangerous and bloody sectarian conflict - community against community, not just party against party - requires the whipping up of deep popular hatred. That article doesn't really get into popular sentiments, which is a big question.

One thing I've seen which points in the other direction:

“Reports indicate that there are now half a million refugees as a result of the Israeli bombings in the south as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut,” Bashar Abu-Sayfan, a Palestinian refugee in Beirut, told the Militant in a phone interview July 17. “What has been encouraging is that close to 200,000 people have been put up in schools, churches, and monasteries in Christian areas. This is an example of human solidarity.” He said 11 people forced from their homes are now living in his one-bedroom apartment.
Article link (http://www.themilitant.com/2006/7028/702802.html)