Peak Oil Essay

[anomaly]

Peak Oil Essay (http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042706_paradigm_speech.shtml)

I hope you take some time to read or skim through that.

There are two basic questions regarding all of this 'peak oil' stuff.

1. Is it true? Are the world's oil reserves actually running out?

Certainly the 'oil sands' in Canada have been brought up several times, but finding a profitable way to extract the oil has not been found. And what if one can't be found?

2. What effect would a peak oil 'crisis' have?

As I see it, if this is actually true (myself, I am quite skeptical), one of two things will happen. Possibility A is that wee see some major chaos, resulting in a more primitive, backward society. Possibility B is that this could be the straw that broke the camel's back for capitalism. After all, if 'peak oil' is happening, it will mean that capitalism cannot function well enough to meet the needs of society.

People may hit the streets, a real revolution could be seen, and things may actually progress.

I'm really not sure on this one, for both questions. So any input is appreciated.

[redstar2000]

Ok, I read it.

Same old nutball crap.


Originally posted by anomaly
Is it true?

No.


What effect would a peak oil 'crisis' have?

Since there won't be one, that's an unanswerable question.

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[ÑóẊîöʼn]

1. Is it true? Are the world's oil reserves actually running out?

As far as we know, not yet. But they certainly aren't telling us. But whacky conspiracy theories don't tell us either.


2. What effect would a peak oil 'crisis' have?

If the predictions of peak oil "theory" are correct, then civilisation ends as predicted. But I think capitalism is more resilient than that, a recession more likely.

[apathy maybe]

Peak oil will happen. Anyone who knows even a little bit of science should admit this. It is a question of when.

Peak oil is when the total amount of oil found and exploited becomes less then that being used. For background see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

I think that capitalism seems to be trying to work things out (BP stands for Beyond Petroleum now), however, I do not know if things will. I'm hoping that capitalism collapses.

[Cult of Reason]

I think that the theory behind peak oil is sound, as long as oil is finite (all this stuff about abiotic oil is confusing me). There are just very few reliable or complete sources on these things. Bad data -----> bad results.

[Janus]

Most of this stuff was addressed in the last debate. If something were going to happen, then that would be good. But we shouldn't place all our bets on it and focus on other things.

[redstar2000]

Originally posted by KLAS TV
Nevada's Hidden Treasure: Black Gold

Those prices at the pump could make any of us wish we had an oil goldmine in our backyards, but that wish may not too far off the mark in Nevada. Geologists think there could be billions of gallons of oil under Nevada's deserts. If so, why hasn't anyone found it?

On certain outcroppings in central Nevada, you can pick up a rock, bust it open, and literally smell petroleum, or something like it. Deposits of chainman shale are thicker there than anywhere outside of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Last year's discovery of a billion-barrel field in neighboring Utah has would-be oil barons licking their chops.

Nevada's twisted and fractured geology makes it very tough to find the oil that everyone believes is down there, and far more expensive than drilling somewhere else. Although the potential is enormous, the big oil companies find it cheaper to drill in, say, Indonesia.

Another factor in a lack of drilling here is a shortage of drilling rigs. With so much new drilling elsewhere, Nevada doesn't have enough rigs since we're a long way from the centers of oil productions. These rigs can cost up to $100,000 a day to lease. The same rigs are needed for geothermal exploration. One of these days, though, someone will hit a pool here and the shortage will vanish.

http://www.klastv.com/Global/story.asp?S=4877010

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[apathy maybe]

"... and the shortage will vanish." For a time. Then this oil will start running out.

[anomaly]

Yes, that's another interesting point about all this.

Could this be the 'straw that breaks the camel's back' for capitalism?

It seems to me that developing new technology would be far easier under a communist economy than a capitalist.

I don't know how important it is to worry about 'is Peak Oil' real. If it's real (and if this is it, so that it affects us) we'll know. And very soon, if some folks are right.

[GoaRedStar]

I made this post a while back but no one reponded to it.


Coal-to-diesel Breakthrough


http://www.revolutionaryleft.com/index.php?showtopic=49048

[redstar2000]

Here is an excellent refutation of "peak oil" hysteria from another board...

Peak Oil: How it's not going to happen. (http://discussion.newyouth.com/index.php?topic=1914.0)

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[bunk]

Peak oil is not about scarcity of oil. To my knowledge it means a peak in global oil production. Not an actual peak in reserves.

[Armed_Philosopher]

Peak oil is a reality, especialy with the industrialization of India and China and the rest of the world. The growth of demand will excede production, even if the oil exists "somewhere". This will cause serious problems.

I think its a question that many radicals dont want to address because it challanges the wisdom of having a centralized controled market economy, and calls for radical solutions like localized production, urban agriculture, and a decentralized socialist market.

If anything, it makes the case for Anarchism if and when peak oil becomes a reality.

[ComradeRed]

Peak oil will happen. Anyone who knows even a little bit of science should admit this. It is a question of when. Why, I know a little bit of science!

And I don't believe in Peak Oil one bit.

Here's why: China and India are the biggest researchers of nanotechnology. IF peak oil "were" to occur, this would only catalyze research in the field to make nanites applicable to create oil...or some other more effecient fuel source.

Thus there is no "limit" to the oil supply since more can always be created.

It's not like this is some "Philosopher's stone" we're talking about, it's a chemical compound which means it can be artificially synthesized!

It's just a matter of how willing the capitalists are to do this. So far they're raking in the profit; peak oil propaganda only increases the quantity of profits.

[Armed_Philosopher]

What are we going to do about global warming?

I think we should be getting away from the combustion engine all together.

[apathy maybe]

When talking about 'peak oil', people generally mean the amount of oil left in the ground. Not some synthetic. Besides, why bother synthesising oil when you can just grow hemp (or other biofuel)?

And if they do keep burning oil, then global warming ...

[ComradeRed]

What are we going to do about global warming? Live in boats :)


When talking about 'peak oil', people generally mean the amount of oil left in the ground. Not some synthetic. Besides, why bother synthesising oil when you can just grow hemp (or other biofuel)? Well, "peak oil" would be moot then; there's another way to make oil. Correction, there will be a way to make oil (quite cheaply and quickly too).

Besides, even biofuel releases CO2 and H20, it's an organic combustion reaction :) Huzzah for boating!

[Qwerty Dvorak]

Originally posted by [email protected] 15 2006, 03:23 AM

Peak oil will happen. Anyone who knows even a little bit of science should admit this. It is a question of when. Why, I know a little bit of science!

And I don't believe in Peak Oil one bit.

Here's why: China and India are the biggest researchers of nanotechnology. IF peak oil "were" to occur, this would only catalyze research in the field to make nanites applicable to create oil...or some other more effecient fuel source.

Thus there is no "limit" to the oil supply since more can always be created.

It's not like this is some "Philosopher's stone" we're talking about, it's a chemical compound which means it can be artificially synthesized!

It's just a matter of how willing the capitalists are to do this. So far they're raking in the profit; peak oil propaganda only increases the quantity of profits.
I believe the problem lies in the fact that in order to artificially synthesize fuel, you must put in the amount of energy equivalent to the amount you hope to derive from said fuel (Law of Conservation of Energy), thus making it effectively useless.

[anomaly]

RS2K, thanks for the link.

But if it's not real (let's get back to reality now), why are gas prices going up? Just because oil companies want money and they can control the price?

[ComradeRed]

I believe the problem lies in the fact that in order to artificially synthesize fuel, you must put in the amount of energy equivalent to the amount you hope to derive from said fuel (Law of Conservation of Energy), thus making it effectively useless. Well, Nanotechnology will prove to be very interesting in more than one respect: it will finally be able to confirm or deny certain quantum uncertainties (like the one with energy and time) ;)

Regardless, it could conceivably use (oddly enough) solar energy to do this (as nanotechnology is at such a tiny scale that it could more effeciently collect energy from sunlight and uv rays and whatnot). At first, this may seem convaluted; but if it's for money, capitalists will do anything.

[MysticArcher]

I feel the whole nano solution is a bit convoluted.

Biology is my field and so I present a biological solution:

Plants make ethane (C2H6) as a hormone, it's one of the few (or only, can't recall) gaseous hormones.

Bacteria can have genes spliced into them (like how we make insulin for diabetics)

The gene (or genes) for the enzyme(s) that produce ethane in plants can be spliced into bacteria, which will then be grown in large cultures

So you turn sugar into ethane with relatively little energy input.

I'm not sure how well ethane would work as a fuel though, maybe it would have to be converted into methane.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

I also hear sewege treatment plants and landfill sites produce methane, which if simply released into the atmosphere is a greenhouse gas. Burn it, and you get water and carbon dioxide, which produce less greenhouse effects than the original methane.

The CO2 release could be offset by using more concrete in construction - as it cures, it absorbs CO2, which I believe tarmac and asphalt also do after being laid down. Which can only be good.

[ComradeOm]

Originally posted by [email protected] 15 2006, 11:37 PM
But if it's not real (let's get back to reality now), why are gas prices going up? Just because oil companies want money and they can control the price?
That's the market for you. Partly its a matter of geopolitical concerns and partly its restrictions in the system itself. I suspect that the greatest factor though is simply that in the past decade China has gotten much more hungry for oil. That naturally forces up prices in the West.

Energy prices have risen and fallen many times in the past, in fact they do so on a constant basis. Peak oil has nothing to do with it.

But I don't worry about Peak Oil for one simple reason. If its true then society is going back to the Dark Ages. There's nothing that anyone can do to prepare for that. So why worry about something we can't change?

[Qwerty Dvorak]

That's the market for you. Partly its a matter of geopolitical concerns and partly its restrictions in the system itself. I suspect that the greatest factor though is simply that in the past decade China has gotten much more hungry for oil. That naturally forces up prices in the West.
Okay, all imaginative and ambitious theories aside; you do realize that the oil we are currently refining is limited, yes? Perhaps it's not entirely unfathomable that the supplies of said oil are in fact running out? The fact that the current oil demand is increasing rapidly while supplies are already diminishing at an ever-increasing rate is not cancelled out by the fact that somewhere out there may lie an answer to this crisis, if you keep in mind that this answer hasn't yet been found, let alone utilized.

[bunk]

Oil isn't running out! The thing that's debateable is whether production has peaked or is shortly going to.

[redstar2000]

Originally posted by [email protected] 15 2006, 06:09 PM
RS2K, thanks for the link.

But if it's not real (let's get back to reality now), why are gas prices going up? Just because oil companies want money and they can control the price?
YES!

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[Cult of Reason]

ComradeRed, so you say that, with nanotechnology, solar energy "production" would both become more efficient, and that oil could be used as a form of energy storage (one more convenient that H2)? In that case, where does the carbon and hydrogen to produce the oil come from in the first place? Would it be possible to somehow synthesise the oil from CO2 and water in the atmosphere, and so effectively reverse combustion? Or is there another solution already considered for supplying the raw materials?

[DEPAVER]

Thank you, Josh, for making valid points.

Redstar2000 and I have been 'round and 'round on this one, and I see no reason to get involved in another tit for tat argument that changes nothing.

For those interested in Peak Oil, just do the research. Go to Earth Policy Institute or any of the hundreds of other organizations that are staffed with trained geologists, scientists and researchers. Examine the data and reach your own conclusions. Examine data that has been scrutinized under the process known as peer review. It's not perfect, but it's the best process we have to ensure that data and research is valid.

I'd view propagandists with no scientific training with a very careful, jaundiced eye.

It's interesting how thousands of scientists and geologist all agree on Peak Oil theory as well as global climate change, yet a few unqualified psuedo scientists (anon Internet posters that regularly and freely plagarize the work of others) challenge these findings.

The challenges presented thus far in this thread ignore the single critical element known as EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested). That's what Peak Oil is all about. It's not about scarcity, as Josh as already pointed out. It's about peak production and the cost and the energy required to extract the remaining oil and distribute it into a usable product.