Elections In Bolivia

[matiasm]

thoughs, comments, ideas, NEWS?? please post in here.

I think Evo Morales campaign of "Movement to Socialism" looks promising.

If he doesnt get blocked out by the military...

[Correa]

He's a reformist, but the best out of the bunch. Don't hold your breath if you expect a socialist state. Fucking backstabber :angry:

[Guerrilla22]

US voices concern over Bolivia poll outcome Thu Dec 15, 6:21 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will evaluate its relations with Bolivia after this Sunday's election, where the front-runner has pledged to legalize the coca leaf if elected, the State Department said on Thursday.



U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said Washington had long supported the current Bolivian government's counter-narcotics policy and hoped a new government would have the same approach.

"We expect whatever government comes next in Bolivia to honor those commitments that they have made to fight the production and transport of illegal drugs," he told a news briefing.

Leftist Bolivian congressman Evo Morales has emerged as a front-runner in the election and promised to legalize the coca leaf if elected.

Bolivian Indians chew the coca leaf to fend off altitude sickness and brew in herbal teas. The plant is also the key ingredient used to make cocaine and Washington has spent millions of dollars in eradication programs.

Morales has also used his campaign to criticize U.S. free trade policies, arguing that U.S.-backed programs of liberalized trade have plunged South America's poorest country deeper into poverty.

Asked how the U.S. relationship with Bolivia could change if Morales were elected, McCormack said: "Well, we'll see what the outcome of the elections are. But certainly the quality, the depth, the breadth of any relationship with the United States will depend upon the intersection of our common interest."

He added: "So we'll see what policies that person pursues. And based on that, we'll make an evaluation of what kind of relationship we're going to have with that state."

McCormack said he hoped the elections could take place in an atmosphere free from violence and that voters would choose the best person to lead them out of the current "turbulent period."

[Guerrilla22]

The coca leaf must be legalized !

[matiasm]

Originally posted by [email protected] 16 2005, 03:49 AM
He's a reformist, but the best out of the bunch. Don't hold your breath if you expect a socialist state. Fucking backstaber :angry:
you think his a backstabber?

[Correa]

Bolivia: A Revolution Betrayed, Again
by R. Santiago

http://freepeoplesmovement.org/bolgas.jpg

For weeks throughout May and June, angry miners and factory workers, joined by peasants, Indians, teachers, students, organizations of the unemployed, thousands of slum dwellers from the impoverished city of El Alto and tens of thousands of others poured into the capital city of La Paz, demanding "Nationalization of gas and oil," and "Obreros al poder" (workers to power).

In the face of government threats of violence, protestors occupied several oil facilities while peasants cut off the river which supplies water to La Paz.

Indian women, armed with sticks and pieces of wood, forced shops and street merchants to close.

Miners exploded dynamite and riot police fired tear gas as demonstrators fought to break police lines and seize central La Paz to shut down the Bolivian Congress.

An unlimited strike was called and protestors successfully blockaded key supply routes making it impossible to for delivery trucks to enter the city.

The protests began after a hydrocarbons law that guaranteed imperialist "multinational" energy corporations' (Enron, British Petroleum, Shell, etc) profits was passed by the Bolivian Congress and signed by right-wing Santa Cruz senator Hormando Vaca Diez (fearing the reaction of the masses, Mesa didn't sign the law himself). The reaction was immediate and Congress and Mesa fled the capital.

The oppressed people of Bolivia were fighting for the immediate aim of the nationalization of the abundant gas and oil reserves in their country. "Multinational" corporations exploit these abundant resources to reap huge profits, while Bolivia remains the poorest country in South America, with a per capita GDP of a mere $2,600.

But nationalizations are not enough to solve Bolivia's deep rooted problems, and many, if not most of its oppressed people know this.

The uprising was also driven by the call from the rich, and openly racist, bourgeoisie of the gas-producing eastern Santa Cruz de la Sierra department and southern Tarija department (which are also the "whitest" regions in a country with an Indian majority) for "autonomy," guaranteeing them even more wealth while keeping out the Indian masses of the highlands.

Evo Morales, leader of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS-Movimiento al Socialismo), was largely seen as the "leader" of the protestors, though, after his failed attempts to limit the activity of the protestors, he himself admitted, "the rank and file have outflanked us." Morales received the support of most of the Bolivian labor, union, peasant and Indian leaders, and has even been lauded by some so-called "leftists" as a "revolutionary," though in reality he is no more than a parliamentary reformist.

Deja Vu
The events are a continuation of the 2003 "gas war" in Bolivia. Following his failed attempt to crush a demonstration -- against his attempted deals with "multinational" gas corporations -- with ruthless repression, then-president, and Washington favorite, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada ("Goni") was forced from power by a worker and Indian uprising.

Following his ouster, the armed forces and Bolivian Government, with the blessings of the U.S. embassy, gave power to Goni's vice-president, former journalist Carlos Mesa.

Leaders of the workers, peasants, Indians and others involved in the 2003 uprising took the reformist road, deciding to "give Mesa a chance." Anyone with a proper understanding of the situation of course, saw it then as the defeat it was.

While Mesa, in an attempt to subdue the angry oppressed masses, promised reform soon after gaining power, the reality of his rule was much different. The unelected president served no one but the imperialist "multinational" corporations and the United States government. One of his moves in office was convincing the Bolivian Senate to grant immunity from the law for U.S. troops.

Mesa also played into the interests of the racist right-wing bourgeoisie in the richest regions of the country, granting them elections for departmental governors (to occur in August), to which they opportunistically attached an "autonomy" referendum.

In March, Mesa claimed he was resigning in protest to the "crazy" demands of labor, Indian and peasant groups, only to reverse his decision and vow to stay in office for the duration of his term (until 2007).

But after weeks of protests and blockades, and in the face of very real threats of a military coup, Mesa had no choice but to finally submit his resignation in early June. He was replaced by a "caretaker" president, Eduardo Rodriguez, by the Bolivian Congress.

Compromise Spells Defeat
At a crucial time when the Bolivian ruling class was divided and weak, and the working class had its best opportunity yet to seize power, the leaders of the workers, Indian and other groups called and end to the protests and blockades following an agreement by Rodriguez to hold early elections.

The reformist Morales declared a "truce," conveniently paving the way for his candidacy in the early elections which Rodriguez must arrange within five months. Once again the workers, Indians and the rest of the oppressed masses of Bolivia have been sold out by their "leadership."

But the conditions that created this uprising -- and that of 2003 -- have not gone away; and, as at the conclusion of that 2003 uprising, the oppressed Bolivian people are not defeated.

"Our life is very sad. We have carpenters and day laborers who can't find work, the children go hungry and sometimes all you eat in a day is a bowl of watery soup ... and look at the politicians who keep all our money and have gardeners and maids," said Carmela de Nina, 67. "We are lifting the blockades for now, but this can start again at any time."

The working people, peasants, Indians and other oppressed Bolivian people must organize and fight for their interests collectively under the leadership of the working class, not settling for a reformist "truce" or simple nationalization. In order to solve the problems of centuries of poverty and exploitation, and to break free from the clutches of imperialism, they must wrestle the power from the hands of the ruling class through a genuine socialist revolution, and establish a state in which they have the power!

[Correa]

The Democracy Center (http://democracyctr.org/blog/) has a decent blog on the current situation in Bolivia.

[chebol]

You know what? I'm getting REALLY sick of seeing that article. Not because it's totally wrong- it isn't. But because it's misrepresentative and is an excellent example of ultra-left sectarianism that misses the point entirely.

Morales is most likely a reformist- fine. That's not the point. Where's the alternative? Why was Morales 'seen' as the leader? Why did people listen to him?

Because there currently is nobody else. And Morales has shown himself capable of being "pushed" by mass mobilisations.

Further, Evo is a close ally of Hugo and Fidel. Maybe not as close as we might like, but we should bear this in mind. There is a strategy being played out for the WHOLE of latin america, not just piecemeal bits of it that the chronically impatient want to stuff up- again.

Look into the history of Bolivia. Look at what happened when the people rose up, time and again, with no leadership, or with a leadership that was already preparing to sell-out in order to keep the relative strength of the unions untouched.

Compare that with Morales, once you have a sense of it. And with Jaime Solares, the great "left-wing" trade unionist, who can't even find the rallies, because the unions are so weak, they have no presence.

If Evo is elected, there is the very real prospect of a military coup next year- aided by US forces in Paraguay. If Evo is NOT elected, there is every chance of a mass uprising against what would obviously be a fraudulent ballot. The MAS, for all their flaws, are already preparing for this. Seriously. And they have the support to make it a possibility.

Instead of calling him a "backstabber" because he doesn't spout the 'correct' revolutionary rhetoric, take a good long hard look at the social dynamics in Bolivia, and Morales' role within them.

THEN you can criticise. And please, tell me, because I've got a few probs with my mate Evo as well. But make in relevant. Please.

[chebol]

Actually, it might be time for some people to go read up on "two-stage uninterrupted revolution".

:castro: :che: :marx:

[bolshevik butcher]

Moralez is worth critically supporting. He is not perfect, but remember Chavez wasnt when he was first elected. Also, he will be under immense pressure form the bolivian people to take the radical steps along the lines of those that they have seen in Venezuela.

[Intifada]

Morales is the best thing that could happen to Bolivia, realistically speaking.

[D_Bokk]

I completly agree with Chebol regarding Evo's "betrayal."

As for the election, I'm very excited to see the outcome. Because of Bolivia's undemocratic law which states that the congress choses the winner if no one gets 50% - Evo is likely to win popular vote and lose the congressional vote. This would likely cause an uprising of some sorts, hopfully ousting the bourgeois leader ship.

By the odd chance he does get put into office by the congress or obtains 50+% of the vote - the US will justify a war because of his stance on coca. If a larger "out of the closest" socialist bloc starts to form, I think many of the other Latin American leftist governments will follow... leaving the US without an exploitable mass.

[Correa]

It would be a change for the better, but Evo "settled" for a field goal when he could have easily scored a touchdown. :angry: :hammer:

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

You show your class character when you say "Yes Morales is a reformist, but there's no one else".

There isn't??

How about the people that actually made up the fucking uprising?

Their cry was "obreros al poder!" (workers to power) not "Morales al poder"!

When you say "there's no one else" you're saying that the workers, peasants, and Indians themselves aren't fit to rule, and instead need a [mis]leader to do so for them.

Better to let a opportunistic reformist take power in a bourgeois election than for the oppressed to actually wrench power from the hands of the Bolivian rulling classes right?

Of course leaders can, have, and will continue to arrise from the oppressed Bolivian masses, but that's an organic and fluid process. When a guy like Morales tells the workers, peasants, and Indians who have a legitimate chance to take state power to go back to their homes instead and wait for elections in which they can vote for him, he shows who's interests he's looking out for.

A major union (I can't remember the name now) opposed ending the uprising as well as Morales' election bid, and they have threatened to boycott the election and once again take up revolutionary action. That looks like the most promising possibility to me right now.

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

Although a fierce critic of free-market policies that he blames for Bolivia's widespread poverty, Morales moderated his tone as election day approached — assuring the business community that he would protect property rights and fight drug trafficking.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051217/ap_on_...HNlYwN5bmNhdA-- (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051217/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/bolivia_election;_ylt=ApUji6dP7iSLvrzT4YFtpfdvaA8F ;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--)

[chebol]

Yes, CdL, the people made the uprising. And they've made dozens before in Bolivia too.

Now go and find out WHY they haven't succeeded yet, instead of trying to slander my politics.

There is a continuing crisis in revolutionary LEADERSHIP throughout the world. You begin to notice it when places like Bolivia, which are ready for a revolution, KEEP FAILING TO HAVE ONE.

This isn't because the working class are "not fit to rule". (And it's fucking outrageous that you suggest I think this). It is because they are "not organised to rule"- yet.

If they were, they wouldn't have listened to Morales.

So take your ultra-left immaturity and go sit it in a library for a while.

And if you can point to ONE (yes, just ONE) union in Bolivia that is capable of the type of action you suggest- both through it's support base and leadership- please, tell me, because I must have missed it.

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

“THE DECEMBER 2005 ELECTIONS ARE JUST AN ABORTION, BECAUSE THE PEOPLE HAVE NEVER ASKED FOR IT ”

Interview with Alejo Veliz Lazo, carried out in the city of La Paz, Bolivia, on August 17, 2005.

By Ivan Ignacio

Translated by German Alvarez

With certainty in his words, with sound and biting remarks about Evo Morales’ betrayal, the well known indigenous leader Alejo Veliz Lazo highlights the emptiness of leadership the Bolivian people endure at this time when it’s necessary to face with dignity the electoral processes, and he announces the re-strengthening of the true political instrument that according to him the Assembly for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (ASP) constitutes. He insists that the December 2005 elections will bring no good as anyone who becomes President of the republic won’t even last a year if he doesn’t nationalize the oil industry or if he doesn’t invoke a Constituent Assembly immediately. Alejo Veliz comes from the Caico community in the Cochabamba valley and he belongs to the Qhishwa nation, which is the majoritarian first nation in Bolivia. He is also ex-Executive Secretary of the Cochabamba Peasant Workers Union Federation (FSUTCC) and ex-presidential candidate in 1997. Currently, he is First Secretary General of the Peasant Workers Union Federation of Bolivia (CSUTCB) and he is assessor of the FSUTCC.

Ivan Ignacio.- Alejo, could you tell us what is your title as an indigenous leader ?

Alejo Veliz.- Well, first I can tell you I’m the First General Secretary of the Bolivian Peasant Workers Unique Syndical Confederation (CSUTCB) and that I belong to the Qhishwa nation, which represents the majority of the Bolivian people, followed by the Aymara and the Guarani. At the scale of Cochabamba, I’m councilor for the Cochabamba Peasant Workers’ Unique Syndical Federation (FSUTCC).

Ivan.- What is your point of view about the current situation after the call for general elections in Bolivia? Why are we in this situation?

Alejo.- Well, these coming general elections on December 4, 2005 are, in my opinion, an electoral abortion because these elections shouldn’t take place. The people have never supported the elections. The people were playing another role and they were part of a different dynamic. The people have been fighting for years and they started to see some historical proposals on the horizon, more concretely since February 2003, then in October 2003 and ending up in what May and June 2005 have meant. The Bolivians had two very clear proposals: the nationalization of the oil industry as a first pillar, and the Constituent Assembly as the second one. These were the pillars for which the people fought till the last consequences. I would say, they were very close to get them, but according to my judgement the Bolivian oligarchy, those who have the political, social and economical power, spotted the almost insurmountable danger. I would say this fight just needed a little push, and then they come with the oligarchic proposal that says, “no, we better bring the elections earlier and that will fix this”.

Ivan.- And then what happened? Was the oligarchy stronger?

Alejo.- I think that the bad thing here, because I have no doubt the oligarchy has to impede this process, is that these people’s uprising that almost ends up with a victorious uprising is brutally betrayed by the MAS (Movement Towards Socialism). I would say specifically by Mr. Evo Morales because this man is fighting with us, he is in the trenches with us the COB (Bolivian Workers Union), the Mine Workers Union Federation of Bolivia (FSTMB), the CSUTCB, the rural and urban teachers, and all the organizations that joined this fight with the demands for nationalization of the oil industry and a Constituent Assembly. Right then and there Mr. Evo Morales leaves the circle and surrenders to the oligarchic proposal, the proposal of the dominating classes, the transnational corporations and hydrocarbon companies, and they go and say: “OK, let’s have the elections earlier”. He already knew that this was a game of the then President Carlos Mesa, whom he has always been in bed with for he has been part of his government. This naturally stops the movement because one of the sectors had important progress, but he walks out, discourages the people and then finally withdraws calling early elections.

Our proposal was there. What will the coming elections solve if we haven’t changed the rules of the game? The Constituent Assembly was meant to radically change the constitutional order that we have lived for 180 years with the same Spanish models, and we haven’t changed anything. And that was our proposal, that it was the time to call for a Constituent Assembly and at the same time to nationalize the oil industry, because this is one of the most important resources for the country’s economical take off. And we were, I repeat, betrayed.

I understand that there is no doubt anymore about Mr. Evo Morales’ position since in the last demonstrations he did the same thing. In October 2003 he wasn’t in the country. He didn’t defeat Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada (Goni); he never took part in that. He withdrew from the fight ten days before Goni fell. He was on vacation, or in another international mission in Switzerland. He wasn’t in the country. He was in Europe and from there he gave orders for them not to surrender. His people from MAS didn’t surrender and suddenly he appears like the great supporter of the fight when the truth is that we, the CSUTCB, were the ones who really made Goni fell. He talks about Felipe Quispe and Jaime Solares, the partners from El Alto, Roberto de la Cruz and many other leaders, but the one who falsely shows is Evo Morales.

That’s why I am telling you there was no doubt about what was going to happen with Mr. Evo Morales, that is to say, I am convinced that he works with the oil industry companies because to the interior of the parliament their proposal never included to nationalize the oil industry. Never! MAS’s proposal with its 27 delegates and 8 senators was the 50%, which means to allow the presence of oil industry companies in the country, to forgive the 76 damaging contracts signed by Goni that passed by the hands of Tuto Quiroga and other presidents such as Hugo Banzer and Jaime Paz Zamora. It means to forgive, that is to ask them to pay a little more for the tenancy, a bit more taxes and royalties, ”but you can stay”. That is Evo Morales’ proposal and that is his proposal today. On the contrary, the people’s proposal was different: the oil industry companies must leave; it is time for nationalization because the people, the First Nations, the Andean-Amazonian indigenous world, proposed the nationalization because all the wells are in our territory, and as such we must get them back. And Mr. Evo Morales never bet on the nationalization, neither yesterday, nor today or tomorrow, even if he becomes President won’t he do it. If he had wanted, he would have done it already. It was in his hands. He didn’t shoot the ball 6 meters from the unguarded goal, and being able to score he says: “no, I am going to play in the other little field, that is, the next elections”.

Ivan.- What repercussions will the next December 2005 elections have? Can the people have any hope?

Alejo.- I am telling you that the coming elections are just an attempt to destroy the historical proposals of the people. With this in view, we believe that this electoral process will be exactly like the ones there have been so far, that is to say, we are in this supposed change in order to change nothing. I mean, the constitutional order will continue unaltered. Even more, I want to tell you that if until now there have been 130 delegates and 27 senators in the Parliament, plus their substitutes, today they are enlarging it to 150-160 which is completely ridiculous, and even anti-ethical for a country so poor that instead should do its best to save resources. Because, what does it mean to widen the legislative power? It means money. And a country so poor as ours should save; it should be an austere country.

The people’s proposal was to reduce the number of delegates from 130 to 100 and without substitutes. This is the proposal of the indigenous world. But look now; instead of reducing it they are enlarging it. That means a heavier burden for the people, for the workers, for those who sell oranges and potatoes in the streets, those who are sweating everyday inside a taxi or out there in the countryside. They will have to squeeze themselves even more in order to maintain a Government that plays with the same rules, that gets worse with the coming elections.

That’s why for us December 4 is, I emphasize, simply an abortion because legally the elections sould have been held in June 2007. But we want a new constitutional order and to nationalize the oil industry and it won’t happen. I want to send a warning, that whoever wins the elections, and this will remain as historical evidence, whoever wins, the Left, the Right, the Centre, Centre-Left, Centre-Right, anyone who takes office in January 2006 as President, if he doesn’t nationalize the oil industry and immediately invokes a Constituent Assembly, it will be a government that won’t last a year. That government will be knocked down. Mainly if that is Mr. Evo Morales, if he is the one who takes office he will not only be ousted, but he will hang from his neck if they don’t hang him from another part, because the people realized that this is a man that cannot be trusted. He is a man with no integrity or character, who lives on what others say. Besides he is a copy cat, he steals proposals, he has plagiarized the work of MCB (Peasant-Based Movement) and he has plagiarized other people's work on the Constituent Assembly. That is why I am telling you there is a huge debt, fundamentally falling into him.

Ivan.- Then, MAS is not what the people need?

Alejo.- I want to clearly specify that MAS never was and is not a political instrument. That must be very clear because outside the country it looks like MAS is an instrument of the workers, the Aymaras, the social movement. Not true!! The true political instrument was born on March 27, 1995 in Santa Cruz de la Sierra city: the Assembly for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (ASP). This was a product from the entrails of the COB, the CIDOB (Indigenous Confederation of East Bolivia), the Colonizers National Confederation of Bolivia (CNCB), the Bartolina Sisa – National Federation of Peasant Women (FNMC-BS) and the CSUTCB. ASP is a legitimate child of the people and its organizations. MAS is a party as old as MNR (Revolutionary Nationalist Movement). They are contemporaries: the Bolivian Socialist Falange (FSB) from the 60’s originated MAS. It’s the oligarch David Anez Pedraza, a ruler enemy of the indigenous people who formed that MAS party, which he called Unzaguista (MAS-U). And later, safeguarding his personal interests he negotiates with Evo Morales, Filemon Escobar and Rafael Puente and they purchased the acronym.

MAS really is and adoptive child because the social movement, the first indigenous movement of the Andean-Amazonian world never gave birth to MAS. It is spurious and it tries to make the Bolivian people believe (and also the international community) that it was born from the entrails of the masses, which is not true. Therefore, it is an impostor, MAS in its statements, its ideology, in its conception; it all belongs in reality to MAS-U, a branch of FSB that naturally has both the Nazism and the Fascism as its ideological conceptions.

Therefore, we are fighting very hard through ASP, an instrument that for 10 years has fought as a legitimate organization but who knows, not legal, and right now we are in that work. The Bolivian people will recover its voice, its vision, its dignity, its identity through the ASP that, I emphasize, is the true child of the people and at this time we are facing this situation, and before the existing political void because out of four visible candidates, none represents the country’s interests. Neither Tuto Quiroga, nor Samuel Doria Medina, Evo Morales, Rene Joaquino, none of them is ready to nationalize the oil industry or to invoke a Constituent Assembly, because if you do that it means you give your life. Everybody runs. Nobody wants to die. The people already gave their dead and they are ready to give more lives.

That’s why I am telling you that there is a political void, and right now we are working in this project. The struggle won’t end on December 4. This date will pass as crazy rain, as hail, and our work goes beyond December 2005. We are preparing ASP as a serious and important project, but this time it will be different because not only will it be legitimate, but also legal. We are working with many partners from CSUTCB in the nine departments of the country, people from the city and the countryside, and we believe that this project will consolidate.

Ivan.- Does ASP have any plan to affiliate with any front or political party as part of its electoral strategy?

Alejo.- Look. Right now ASP as an organization is not thinking about December, but we are thinking about getting out of this situation in order to try and organize and define an ample front that is being proposed by grass-roots organizations, the Confederation of Urban and Rural Teachers, COB, CSUTCB, the Miners National Federation and others such as the Regional Workers Union and the rural associations in El Alto. All of them are working to build an ample front as a proposal given the circumstances. We hope this comes through. ASP is betting on this and we will support it. I reiterate that other candidates are really out of focus; they don’t have the stature to fulfill the demands of the Bolivian people.

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

Crucial in all of this is the character of Evo Morales and his party, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Morales is of mixed Aymaran and Quechuan descent and got his start as a coca farmer, or cocalero. He lost the last presidential election, in 2002, by only one percentage point. MAS is now the second-largest group in Parliament. But Morales is not the driving force behind Bolivia's social movements.

Most grassroots organizations in Bolivia are far more radical than the social democratic MAS. Morales originally called for a 50 percent royalty on foreign oil companies, while most of the movement wants 100 percent nationalization. This has caused Bolivian sociologist Carlos Crespo to describe Morales as "Lula-ized," and to call MAS ... just "a presidential vehicle."

And here comes someone [from the pb MAS itself!] echoing the petit-bourgeois in this thread...


Antonio Peredo, a senior MAS senator, has a different critique of his party: "If we took power now we wouldn't last ten weeks. We're not ready." But neither is anyone else on the left, and as Alex Contreras, a radical Bolivian journalist, puts it, "MAS is the only organization capable of uniting enough factions to win elections. They're not corrupt and they're not fanatics. They're the only real option."

In other words.. "vote for us, because you're not fit to take power -- we're the only option". No different of course, than the arguments of every social-dem and "center-left" bourgeois party in history.

A revolution [which apparently can only be carried out by 'fanatics' and 'corrupt' people] in which the oppressed actually take power is out of the question, just stick to bourgeois parliamentarism.


As for Evo Morales's more mundane quest to be president, [Felipe] Quispe [leader of the CSUTCB peasant union] is dismissive. "Evo is like [President Alejandro] Toledo in Peru. Nothing will change for the Indians if he is president." Getting back to the big picture, he sums up: "We will rewrite history with our own blood. There will be a new sun, and even the rocks and the trees will be happy."

[chebol]

It's not out of the question, comrade. It's a matter of what are the key IMMEDIATE steps to take. Condemning Morales out of hand as a "reformist" without any alternative- including a working class that is on the cusp of actually taking power- that's ultra-left rhetorical stupidity.

Where is the revolutionary force? CdL answer- "the working class", as though that were all that counted. Then, to discount any criticism, one need only condemn Morales for the reformist he (undoubtedly) is.

So, what is the strategy of the working class of Bolivia for taking power *right now*?????

Is it storming the Assembly, or voting for Morales, seeing if he delivers, AND THEN STORMING THE ASSEMBLY?

Which version fits reality, and which one sounds like your empty rhetoric, directing the Bolivian masses into your utopian template????

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

The other faction of the CSUTCB that is allied with Felipe Quispe has only critical things to say about the MAS, but this is because it supports Quispe's party Movimiento Indígena Pachakuti (MIP). Why all this criticism? Because the MAS has made many mistakes even in opposition, one of the largest being its endorsement of the manipulative referendum on the nationalization of hydrocarbon resources in summer 2004 that no one was happy with in the end (see Forrest Hylton's "The Ghost of Gonismo: 'Popular Participation' in Bolivia's Gas Referendum," Counterpunch, July 20, 2004).

In July of this year, Abel Mamani of the FEJUVE-El Alto explored the possibility of forming another political party with the help of other social movement leaders including the miners´ unions and the faction of the campesino union, the CSUTCB, allied with Aymara radical Felipe Quispe. The proposed platform of the new "political instrument" included the immediate convocation of a Constituent Assembly that aims to redefine the nation to meet demands for indigenous autonomy, land distribution, and nationalization among other social, political, and economic reforms. At the meeting, these social movement leaders stressed the necessity of creating a "real" political alternative given the MAS's failure to follow through on these central popular demands since the Gas War of October 2003.

Maintaining critical distance from the MAS is necessary to avoid the repetition of a Lula-like scenario in Brazil, where former party activists on the left are now faced with the double task of re-building their social movements and a political party. Party insiders in Bolivia report that, over the past few years, the MAS is following a similar path to the PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores, Workers Party), slowly transforming from a social movement party towards an electoral machine geared solely towards the election of Evo as president. Its repeated failure to embrace popular demands and endorsement of neoliberal leaders, such as former President Carlos Mesa and temporary President Eduardo Rodríguez, are testament to the gulf that exists between progressive social movements and the party.


On the question of socialism, however, he [Alvaro Garcia Linera -- Vice-presidental candidate running w/ Morales]has worked hard to convince the electorate that he will never mention this word again (see Miguel Lora Fuentes, "Alvaro García Linera: 'El capitalismo andino es un paso intermedio para imaginar el socialismo'," Bolpress, October 7, 2005).

It should not be a surprise that García Linera winces at the mere mention of socialism, since the MAS never has been a socialist party, despite the name. Its most important social base remains the coca growers in the semi-tropical region of Cochabamba. The most coherent economic policy that the party has ever had is its anti-imperialist stance to fight US plans for coca eradication in the region. Although necessary to sustain (just barely) the livelihood of growers in the semi-tropical regions in the departments of Cochabamba and La Paz, the policy of growing coca does not amount to a sound policy for national development.


Coming from Evo, however, it is likely that "nationalization" does not mean expropriation of the transnational gas companies. It is often seen to only mean reformulating the constitution so that Bolivia "owns" the gas both above and underground (currently the Bolivian state has property rights over the latter). The most coherent platform on offer, the "Ten Point Plan," has been described by one commentator as a collaborative program with the big business, landowners, and transnationals in the name of "reinventing democracy" and "Andean capitalism" (LOR-CI, "La burguesía teme a las expectativas que un gobierno del MAS podría despertar en las masas." Rebelión, October 1, 2005).


Upon the initial announcement that elections were suspended, the FEJUVE-El Alto called for the revival of protests to press for the immediate convocation of the Constituent Assembly. Progressives in solidarity with Bolivian social movements ought to prioritize this call for a Constituent Assembly, because it may have a better possibility of achieving profound social change than merely replacing the politicians in the legislature.

The oppressed arguably had the ability to seize power during the 2nd Gas Wars this year. But the move was never taken because large portions were tricked into giving it all up for Morales' election bid.

The proletarian/peasant/Indian path is clear: shut down Bolivia again, and forge the Constituent Assembly from the grass roots movements like FEJUVE-El Alto, SUTCB, etc.

[WUOrevolt]

Originally posted by [email protected] 17 2005, 07:36 AM
It would be a change for the better, but Evo "settled" for a field goal when he could have easily scored a touchdown. :angry: :hammer:
True, but at least some socialistic components will be brought to Bolivia if he wins.

[cormacobear]

I consider Nationalisation of major industry and resources with the redirection of revenue to education, health care, agriculture, and housing to be a vital first step an educated native population will be in a better position to proceed with complete nationalization and the introduction of bottom up management.

If the even semi socialists win it's time for a Hands of Bolivia.

[Correa]

A chance to abolish private property came and Evo choose not to. Why "reform"? We know what must be done! :hammer:

[Delirium]

I think he is a leftist populist, who is riding upon the anti-american sentiment and the anger against munti-nationals. this is all fine and acceptable and i wholy support indigenous rights and culture(in this case pertaining to coca), but i have doubts that he will be able to put together a sustainable and sucessful government.

[Correa]

Saturday, December 17, 2005

Bolivia’s Elections on Sunday – What to Watch For

Many eyes, both in Bolivia and around the world, will be focused on tomorrow’s important national elections. However, what the vote means and how it will play out over the next few weeks requires a bit of local understanding and analysis. Remember (as so few foreign reporters seem to): Winning first place does not mean you are elected President. Not unless you win 51% of the vote, which no one seems likely to. The winner will be selected, from among the top two finishers, by Congress in January

Here’s what The Democracy Center (http://democracyctr.org/blog/) will be watching for and what our readers might want to watch for as well:

The Results of the Popular Vote

This is obvious, but there are nuances to look for. Polling results have been pretty much the same since the start of the campaign: Evo Morales in first with somewhere between 34-37% of the vote, Tuto Quiroga in second with 25-27%, Samuel Doria Medina coming in third at around 15% and the rest trailing below 10%. There may be some late switching from Medina to the marginal MNR candidate. In other words, as far as the polling goes, no late surge for either of the top two.

However, the actual voting could yield results very different.

Clearly if any candidate has popular momentum at the end it is Morales. Witness the fact that his end-of campaign victory rally in Cochabamba was held in a soccer stadium while Quiroga’s was held in a small city plaza. Does a last minute surge or a countryside vote not reflected in the polls push Morales and MAS past 40%? From the conversations I have had with people here, 40% seems like the psychological barrier in which a Morales presidency moves from being a negotiable possibility to a something almost undeniable.

Conversely, if Morales does worse than the polls suggest, less than 30% for example, and Quiroga does better, a Quiroga presidency in alliance with other parties seems much more likely.

The strongest likelihood is a vote result similar to the current polling, which leads us to the next thing to watch.

How the Popular Vote Translates into Congressional Numbers

As we, and many other Bolivia watchers, have pointed out, the popular vote does not translate directly into the way in which seats will be apportioned in Congress. Senators are elected by department and in many of the smaller ones Quiroga is likely to win. That and a number of other complicated congressional vote arrangements means, in all likelihood, that Quiroga will end up with a higher proportion of the vote in the Congress than he will in the popular vote, though still a wide gap shy of 51%

The “Smoke Signals” from Morales, Quiroga, Dora Medina, and the US

Four key players will be looking at Sunday’s results and making some hard choices. How they are thinking about those choices is likely to be reflected in their public comments in the first few days. These include:

Evo Morales: Is he going to push hard for the presidency? As we have noted on the Blog for weeks, Morales and MAS will take a look at their vote results and make a choice whether they want to make the political deals required to win 51% in Congress or whether they think they are better off as the opposition to a Quiroga government focusing pressure on a quick convening of a constituent assembly to rewrite Bolivia’s constitution. Watch Morales’ post election comments. If he and MAS use wording like “inevitable” to describe his election to the Presidency, that means MAS is deciding to bring all the pressure and deal making it can to bear on making that happen.

Tuto Quiroga: Does he want to be President after a weak second place finish? Similarly, Quiroga will need to decide whether he wants to try and wheel and deal a second place finish, potentially a weak one, into a vote in the Congress to make him president. More than a few here have questioned whether he has the fire in the belly to do that and he himself has made numerous comments that he will not seek the presidency if he does not finish first. Moving back to the US again with his family and making some money could look like a sweeter option than trying to govern a fractious nation on the basis of a quarter of the popular vote. Watch the nuances as well for how tough Quiroga sounds about winning the vote in the Congress.

Samuel Dora Medina: Does he sound like he is ready to dance with Morales or Quiroga? If both Morales and Quiroga choose to seriously contest the vote in the Congress, Doria Medina will likely be the kingmaker to either. His comments and the order in which he meets with his two rivals will also offer insight into both his intentions and the negotiations underway behind the scenes.

The US Government: Is Evo acceptable? I think that a good part of both Quiroga’s and Doria Medina’s decisions will be influenced by the moves of the US government. You can bet that by the end of the day Monday the Ambassador will have had telephone conversations if not meetings with both. Will the US decide to use its influence to do all it can to block a Morales presidency? Will it signal, in the case of a strong Morales finish, that it is ready to “work constructively with anyone the Bolivian people chose to elect?” Watch closely for what the US Embassy has to say. Watch also for whether the US statements come from Washington instead of La Paz. That would mean something, either way, even more serious.