Elections in Israel

[il Commie]

28 of March - elections in Israel...

Alot have changed here in recent weeks: Amir Peretz became the chairman of the Labor Party, and it is now a Social-Democratic party. Ariel Shron left the Likud Party, and formed a new center party ('Kadima'). Shimon Peres (former leader of the Labor Party) joined Sharon today, and if Sharon will be prime minister than he is likely to have some symbolic role. The Likud Party (right wing), gets 10 mandates on public opinion poles (they won 40 seats last elections).


I think the next Knesset will surely be better for the left, though Hadash (Communist Party & friends) stays with the same number of seats in poles. I hope our elections campaign, which will begin during December, will change that...


What are your opinions about it?
And what do the palestinians on this forum have to say about their elections?

[Severian]

I'd be curious what you think about this realignment in bourgeois politics.

It seems on the surface like a leftward movement of bourgeois politics: on the one hand the Labour Party has moved left; on the other hand Sharon moves towards the center and seemingly leaves the far right isolated and superfluous. But somehow that seems improbable; what would force such a shift?

The Labour Party shift is seemingly driven mostly by economic issues, the privatizations and so forth driven through by Netanyahu - is that accurate in your opinion?

Maybe the biggest question in all of this is how it will affect the attitudes of Arabic Jews, and whether it will shake up the anomaly in Israeli politics, where the poorer section of the Israeli population is more likely to vote for the right....any comments on that?

[il Commie]

Originally posted by "Severian"+--> ("Severian")It seems on the surface like a leftward movement of bourgeois politics: on the one hand the Labour Party has moved left; on the other hand Sharon moves towards the center and seemingly leaves the far right isolated and superfluous. But somehow that seems improbable; what would force such a shift?[/b]

The armed way failed, and everybody can see that. The palestinians didn't break although the massive amount of war crimes carried by the IDF against them.

On the other hand, there is a massive USA pressure to silent the area (war is bad for buisnesses). So, Sharon initiated an one-sided withdrawl from Gaza, which won't end the conflict (the occupation in the West Bank is only deeper now). But it looks good on the Television.

The nationalists in the Likud hated it, he began hating them, so he took one third of the Likud and formed Kadima.


Originally posted by "Severian"+--> ("Severian")The Labour Party shift is seemingly driven mostly by economic issues, the privatizations and so forth driven through by Netanyahu - is that accurate in your opinion?[/b]

Yes. Peretz is strong because of the hate for Netanyahu.

Today there are many poor workers in Israel, a situation we're not farmiliar with. This is due to the big unemployment and the privatization policy. Peretz big elections promise is to raise the minimum wage to $1000 a month, and many workers want that.

Yet Peretz does not adress the issues of privatizations and tax policy, and that is a thing which we communists criticize him for.


"Severian"@
Maybe the biggest question in all of this is how it will affect the attitudes of Arabic Jews

Oh please don't go there. We're trying to lead class politics, not ethnic politics.


"Severian"
and whether it will shake up the anomaly in Israeli politics, where the poorer section of the Israeli population is more likely to vote for the right....any comments on that?

I think yes. The "big bang" (as journalists call it) of Israel's politics, will break the bond between the poor people and the right. The left-wing economical agenda, which is very popular in the Israeli public, will just might lead the next goverment.

Netanyahu might not even lead the Likud, because his neo-liberal agenda is so hated.

[Severian]

Originally posted by il Commie+Dec 1 2005, 08:36 AM--> (il Commie @ Dec 1 2005, 08:36 AM)
Originally posted by "Severian"+--> ("Severian")It seems on the surface like a leftward movement of bourgeois politics: on the one hand the Labour Party has moved left; on the other hand Sharon moves towards the center and seemingly leaves the far right isolated and superfluous. But somehow that seems improbable; what would force such a shift?[/b]

The armed way failed, and everybody can see that. The palestinians didn't break although the massive amount of war crimes carried by the IDF against them.

On the other hand, there is a massive USA pressure to silent the area (war is bad for buisnesses). So, Sharon initiated an one-sided withdrawl from Gaza, which won't end the conflict (the occupation in the West Bank is only deeper now). But it looks good on the Television.

The nationalists in the Likud hated it, he began hating them, so he took one third of the Likud and formed Kadima. [/b]
Well, that makes sense: not so much a leftward shift as a shift towards imposing a "peace deal" - which, I agree, Washington is pushing for - with evacuation of a few settlements and retention of the larger ones. Imposing it unilaterally if necesssary. And according to an article I saw today, retaining the Jordan Valley under Israeli control! How anyone could call the remnant of the West Bank, surrounded by Israel, an independent state....


("Severian")The Labour Party shift is seemingly driven mostly by economic issues, the privatizations and so forth driven through by Netanyahu - is that accurate in your opinion?

Yes. Peretz is strong because of the hate for Netanyahu.

Today there are many poor workers in Israel, a situation we're not farmiliar with. This is due to the big unemployment and the privatization policy. Peretz big elections promise is to raise the minimum wage to $1000 a month, and many workers want that.

Yet Peretz does not adress the issues of privatizations and tax policy, and that is a thing which we communists criticize him for.[/b][/quote]

Also makes sense. That's the kind of pressure from below which actually can drive a leftward shift in bourgeois politics, at least a temporary one.



"Severian"@
Maybe the biggest question in all of this is how it will affect the attitudes of Arabic Jews

Oh please don't go there. We're trying to lead class politics, not ethnic politics.

Hm. Seems to me that "ethnic" divide to some extent parallels the class divide, and there's an issue of discrimination against Arabic and Ethiopian Jews which cannot be ignored, no more than the more severe discrimination against Palestinian citizens of Israel.

And there's a great paradox that in this strongly anti-Arab racist state, where Arabic Jews are discriminated against partly as a byproduct of its essential anti-Arab racism, it's the Arabic Jews who are most anti-Arab of all....partly protective coloration?


"Severian"

and whether it will shake up the anomaly in Israeli politics, where the poorer section of the Israeli population is more likely to vote for the right....any comments on that?

I think yes. The "big bang" (as journalists call it) of Israel's politics, will break the bond between the poor people and the right. The left-wing economical agenda, which is very popular in the Israeli public, will just might lead the next goverment.

Netanyahu might not even lead the Likud, because his neo-liberal agenda is so hated.

Well, that's an important shift with far-reaching implications then. The class divisions within Israel have always been fundamental to any realistic perspective for eventually breaking out of the dead ends in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

[il Commie]

Originally posted by "Severian"
Hm. Seems to me that "ethnic" divide to some extent parallels the class divide, and there's an issue of discrimination against Arabic and Ethiopian Jews which cannot be ignored, no more than the more severe discrimination against Palestinian citizens of Israel.

And there's a great paradox that in this strongly anti-Arab racist state, where Arabic Jews are discriminated against partly as a byproduct of its essential anti-Arab racism, it's the Arabic Jews who are most anti-Arab of all....partly protective coloration?

Let's put everything in it's place:

Yes, there is an ethnic discrimination in Israel. Russian Jews and Ethiopian Jews live in there own communities and are very discriminated, and Oriental Jews (that's a much more used phrase than "Arabic Jews") are also discriminated. Yet the Oriental Jews are less discriminated, because they immigrated to here in the 50's, so today there are already many children with an Ashkenazi parent and an Oriental parent.

But sentences like "it's the Arabic Jews who are most anti-Arab of all" are generalizing. People choose who to vote for because of their opinions, not because of their ethnic group.

In Israel we call sentences like this one the "Ethnic Demon", and when Peretz was elected to be chairman of the LP he promised to "barry it".

[Guerrilla22]

This was all carefully orchestrated by Sharon well in advance. Almost immidetly after the formation of his new party, fairly prominent members of labor and likud joined. Sharon seems to think he will be running the show, however he has failed to realize that he is 72 and when he is gone, Likud now made up of nothing but hardliners will regain control with netanyahu at the helm.

[il Commie]

Sharon is almost 78 years old today.

It's really not sure that Netanyahu will lead the Likud. Shalom and Mofaz, his opponents, are gaining momentum. They both supported Sharon, and one of them may defeat Netanyahu (who destroyed the welfare state).

[Guerrilla22]

hopefully one of those two will be able to gain control of likud. I'm still very worried about the post Sharon era though, as we all should be.

[Severian]

Here's an article from the Militant on the Likud split (http://www.themilitant.com/2005/6948/694802.html)

I think it makes a good point that the Israeli state has little choice but to give up parts of Palestine and basically take the course Sharon is setting. Due to all kinds of trends running against the "Greater Israel" dream.

Sharon, the founder of Likud, wouldn't be withdrawing from Gaza, etc., if there was a practical alternative. Even if Likud somehow returns to power, which I doubt, it'll have to do something similar.

'Course the thing about the wall, the settlements, etc., is they create facts on the ground which are hard to reverse either way....in the direction of a more complete withdrawal from the occupied territories, either.


But sentences like "it's the Arabic Jews who are most anti-Arab of all" are generalizing. People choose who to vote for because of their opinions, not because of their ethnic group.

In Israel we call sentences like this one the "Ethnic Demon", and when Peretz was elected to be chairman of the LP he promised to "barry it".

OK, that was a simplistic sweeping generalization on my part. But I think there's a real paradox beneath it, and if it is buried that'll be a significant change.

[Phalanx]

Originally posted by [email protected] 4 2005, 02:07 AM
hopefully one of those two will be able to gain control of likud. I'm still very worried about the post Sharon era though, as we all should be.
From what I'm hearing though is that Israel in general is going away from Likud. Some of my friends in Israel say that they will leave Israel if Netanyahu is elected, and from what they're saying, it seems to be the general consensus where they live. I know that It's very hard for me to actually paint a picture as I've never been to Israel, but from what I've been hearing, Sharon has a huge lead over Netanyahu. On a different note, I think it's a shame that Shinui isn't doing well. They are probably to the right of many people on this board, but their policies seem generally connected to the main ideals of this site.

[il Commie]

Where does your friends live? If they live in a big city, than that's lovely.
But if they live in a kibutz or something like that, that's not big news...

Shinui is a disgusting right-wing party.
They take pride in the fact they are responsible for a large part of Netanyahu's neo-liberal reforms.

They were elected by spreading hate towards the Orthodoxs, but they did nothing to seperate religion from the state. They present themselves as a "center" party, but they were in goverment with the most extreme rightists.


I'm glad Shinui is falling down in public opinion poles.

[Phalanx]

One lives in Tel-Aviv, one lives in Holon, and two live near Beer'Sheva. Only one is really political, but they all share hatred for Netanyahu.

I thought Shinui was to the left of Labor, or at least that's what they say on their website. Why would they have so much hatred for the Orthodox if the were in governments with United Torah? I'm not saying your wrong, but that I was just misinformed.

[il Commie]

Shinui were always to the right of the Labor Party.

They weren't in one goverment with an orthodox party.
Yet their chairman Lapid said they are willing to sit in one goverment with the Aguda (ashkenazi orthodoxs), but not with Shas (oriental orthodoxs). That's another problem with them: racist statements against oriental jews...

And what your friends told you is pretty reprsesntitive, people dislike Netanyahu and his economical programs. Yet Sharon is still popular, very popular...

[Doshka]

wait you've lost me...why would it be "lovely" if people living in cities in Israel reject Netanyahu? Sharon is hardly better. He is an animal. A barbarian and a mass-murderer. This whole thing is a joke. Does it really matter which face they put on the podium? It's all the same thing and the policies are not changing.

And unfortunately, though I know it's wrong to generalize, it is very true that the 48 Arabs are the worst faction in Israel. Often worse than the settlers. They have become better at being Israeli than the Israelis themselves.

[Phalanx]

Originally posted by il [email protected] 8 2005, 10:51 PM
Shinui were always to the right of the Labor Party.

They weren't in one goverment with an orthodox party.
Yet their chairman Lapid said they are willing to sit in one goverment with the Aguda (ashkenazi orthodoxs), but not with Shas (oriental orthodoxs). That's another problem with them: racist statements against oriental jews...

I really mistook their political leanings. I thought they wanted to create a state that was equal for Jews and Arabs. I know they supported sending the Orthodox into the military, but I didn't think they had any hatred towards anyone.

Well, I apologize for my ignorance, but I had thought they were working towards an equal Israel.

Also, it's kind of beside the point, but in Israel do you still classify people as Ashkenazi or Sephardic (the English name for Oriental) Jews?

[il Commie]

Originally posted by "Doshka"+--> ("Doshka")wait you've lost me...why would it be "lovely" if people living in cities in Israel reject Netanyahu?[/b]

Netanyahu is considered in Israel to be the symbol of neo-liberalism. if he'll fall, than politicians in the future will be afraid to adopt his policies.

Sharon is indeed not better than Netanyahu. But Amir Peretz could offer improvement.


Originally posted by "Doshka"@
it is very true that the 48 Arabs are the worst faction in Israel. Often worse than the settlers. They have become better at being Israeli than the Israelis themselves.

"48 Arabs" is a name for the palestinians who are today citizens of Israel.

And no, the oriental jews are not the "worst faction in Israel". That's just a stupid stigma. People have different opinions without relation to their ethnic origin. Many years ago the orientals did support Begin and the Likud, but today when Peretz is the chairman of the Labor, you can erase these stigmas.


"Chinghis Khan"
Also, it's kind of beside the point, but in Israel do you still classify people as Ashkenazi or Sephardic (the English name for Oriental) Jews?

Yes. There are different cultural and religious customs of the Spharadic and the Ashkenazi jews.

And to set things straight:

"Ashkenazi" = a european jew
"Ashkenaz" = Germany and France (in hebrew)

"Spharadi" = an oriental jew
"Spharad" = Spain (in hebrew)

[Phalanx]

Originally posted by il Commie+Dec 9 2005, 02:15 PM--> (il Commie @ Dec 9 2005, 02:15 PM)
"Chinghis Khan"
Also, it's kind of beside the point, but in Israel do you still classify people as Ashkenazi or Sephardic (the English name for Oriental) Jews?

Yes. There are different cultural and religious customs of the Spharadic and the Ashkenazi jews.

And to set things straight:

"Ashkenazi" = a european jew
"Ashkenaz" = Germany and France (in hebrew)

"Spharadi" = an oriental jew
"Spharad" = Spain (in hebrew) [/b]
I was just wondering, as in America there really isn't much of a distinction between Ashkenazi and Sephardic. It's more between Reform, Conservative, and Orthodox than ethnic groups.

How many seats does Hadash have now?

[il Commie]

was just wondering, as in America there really isn't much of a distinction between Ashkenazi and Sephardic

That's because the big majority of the jews in the USA are Ashkenazi.


It's more between Reform, Conservative, and Orthodox than ethnic groups.

We have that too, plus a new religious faction: the religious zionism.


How many seats does Hadash have now?

2 seats of Hadash members.
3 seats if you count Tibi, who was with us in a joint list in 2003 elections. We don't know yet if there will be a joint list again this elections.

We hope to grow bigger this time...

[Quzmar]

With the Sharon out of the political picture, how do see the next elections, his party Kadima was built around of course they will lose a lot of the support some of the polls gave them more than 40% before Sharon’s first stroke! Can they still use his popularity or even use his illness or are they just trying it out by having him on top of their list despite the fact that every body knows he will not be back to politics(if he survives that is).
Now the labour party have more of a chance to win or get a good result at least, of course Amir Peretz is an improvement for the last 2 labour party leaders! What can he do? Can the ICP benefit?
And about the Palestinian I will come back after the elections, coz frankly there has been huge effort from fateh to cancel the elections they just don’t want it to happen.

[dso79]

Opinion polls show that Kadima has gained even more support since Sharon’s stroke. They would easily defeat both Labour and Likud.


Less than a week after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's hospitalization, his Kadima party - currently under the stewardship of his heir, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert - continues to gather strength, despite Sharon's absence.

If elections were held now, Kadima would win 44 Knesset seats - four more than in the first survey taken after Sharon was hospitalized. Labor dropped two seats (to 16), while Likud lost one (to 13) in comparison with that poll.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/668726.html

[Quzmar]

one thing about the israeli polls! They are politically motivated! So don’t believe them! And the change incredibly quick.
The other thing is before the Palestinian elections polls pretty meaningless, the Palestinian election will affect the political situation massively.

[il Commie]

The polls in Israel today are not representitive. Most of the public is still shocked because of the stroke Sharon had. The entire political system was based on him, especially his party Kadima, and now he's gone.

Ulmert in my opinion will not be the next prime minister in Israel. His party will dismantle because of personal fights. This process began this week.

Peretz and Netanyahu are the two main candidates. I prefer Peretz, ofcourse.

Hadash (ICP & friends) can gain from this elections. Not because of what happend to Sharon, but because of the extreme increase in poverty. Yet it depends on our ability to lead a good elections campaign. Tomorow we're electing our candidates for the Knesset, and afterwards we're begining our campaign. Wish us luck.