Dimentio
25th October 2005, 16:26
By E. Lescure
[Note, this is a prediction on how some of the main characteristics of economic development would look during the following years.]
***
As you are probably aware of, I do not share the sentiments [of some of my fellow associates here] that the Peak Oil will become the doomsday for the price system. Of course, it will be a depression that perhaps is more deep and long than the Great Depression in the 30;s. But it will not spell the end of the price system.
Why?
Well, first we must look on how Peak Oil make affect the world in general. It will spell a disaster for multinational, or rather, multicontinental corporations, which would be practically unable to transport their goods to the consumers. It would also affect the farmers in Europe and North America in a negative way, and thus cripple the global economy [the intensity of the crisis depends on how much oil that is stored and on how China and India develops, but a long depression would be rather mild and we would probably not notice when've we reached it, while a swift depression would become a death-blow to the global economy whatsoever].
The decreased imports of goods would create a vast unemployment, and cities which grows on accumulating resources that is produced somewhere else and consuming them, would probably stagnate. The population density in urbanised zones will probably increase in the beginning of a slow crisis, due to the increased cost of living in the countryside [due to limited infrastructure], but later decrease, as supermarkets are emptied, either slowly by over-buying and storaging, or quickly by pillaging.
Then, the countryside would be re-colonisated by city-dwellers, and possible ethnic conflicts looms in the horizon. The global economy would be shattered and the regional blocks would probably try to increase their control of economy in order to manage the crisis.
In terms of research, focus would be directed at making alternatives more cost-efficient, and to build an imnfrastructure in order to support the alternative economy. That would mean that automatization would be decreased, and self-reliance and slower transport systems would mean a decrease in actual production but probably an increase in employment.
The term employment by itself would probably vanish, at least as the greatest source of income. Instead, self-supplier would be the new typical life-style.
The Post Oil Peak world, the POP, would be a world of regional economies, slow transports, self-reliance and de-urbanization. The growth which we have been used to for 60 years would be replaced by an economy which is more seasonal, and with a slower growth factor.
This will of course slowly change as the new alternative fuels, ethanol, bio-fuels, solar batteries or hydrogen, would mean a slow increase in world trade from the bottom point, the "negative peak" of low load factors in world trade.
What my point is, is that the Oil Peak would, instead of destroying the price system, conserve it and stabilize it, perhaps to the point that automatization in the service sector would be delayed until the 2050;s to the 2070;s. This because the fact that the Oil Peak increases scarcity in key resources that our current infrastructure is dependent upon.
It would of course shatter the global economy, but the price system will survive, and maybe even prosper as it has reawoken to the new conditions, which more reminds of it's natural state.
Thus, the thought that this depression represents an end to the price system is probably futile. It is not that kind of crisis that is based on the inefficient management of a technologic infrastructure that is designed to produce abundance.
This would of course not be negative for us, since it would allow us some decades to mobilise, educate our circles, and then create a strategy in order to put technocracy on the world agenda.
By Enrique Lescure
[Note, this is a prediction on how some of the main characteristics of economic development would look during the following years.]
***
As you are probably aware of, I do not share the sentiments [of some of my fellow associates here] that the Peak Oil will become the doomsday for the price system. Of course, it will be a depression that perhaps is more deep and long than the Great Depression in the 30;s. But it will not spell the end of the price system.
Why?
Well, first we must look on how Peak Oil make affect the world in general. It will spell a disaster for multinational, or rather, multicontinental corporations, which would be practically unable to transport their goods to the consumers. It would also affect the farmers in Europe and North America in a negative way, and thus cripple the global economy [the intensity of the crisis depends on how much oil that is stored and on how China and India develops, but a long depression would be rather mild and we would probably not notice when've we reached it, while a swift depression would become a death-blow to the global economy whatsoever].
The decreased imports of goods would create a vast unemployment, and cities which grows on accumulating resources that is produced somewhere else and consuming them, would probably stagnate. The population density in urbanised zones will probably increase in the beginning of a slow crisis, due to the increased cost of living in the countryside [due to limited infrastructure], but later decrease, as supermarkets are emptied, either slowly by over-buying and storaging, or quickly by pillaging.
Then, the countryside would be re-colonisated by city-dwellers, and possible ethnic conflicts looms in the horizon. The global economy would be shattered and the regional blocks would probably try to increase their control of economy in order to manage the crisis.
In terms of research, focus would be directed at making alternatives more cost-efficient, and to build an imnfrastructure in order to support the alternative economy. That would mean that automatization would be decreased, and self-reliance and slower transport systems would mean a decrease in actual production but probably an increase in employment.
The term employment by itself would probably vanish, at least as the greatest source of income. Instead, self-supplier would be the new typical life-style.
The Post Oil Peak world, the POP, would be a world of regional economies, slow transports, self-reliance and de-urbanization. The growth which we have been used to for 60 years would be replaced by an economy which is more seasonal, and with a slower growth factor.
This will of course slowly change as the new alternative fuels, ethanol, bio-fuels, solar batteries or hydrogen, would mean a slow increase in world trade from the bottom point, the "negative peak" of low load factors in world trade.
What my point is, is that the Oil Peak would, instead of destroying the price system, conserve it and stabilize it, perhaps to the point that automatization in the service sector would be delayed until the 2050;s to the 2070;s. This because the fact that the Oil Peak increases scarcity in key resources that our current infrastructure is dependent upon.
It would of course shatter the global economy, but the price system will survive, and maybe even prosper as it has reawoken to the new conditions, which more reminds of it's natural state.
Thus, the thought that this depression represents an end to the price system is probably futile. It is not that kind of crisis that is based on the inefficient management of a technologic infrastructure that is designed to produce abundance.
This would of course not be negative for us, since it would allow us some decades to mobilise, educate our circles, and then create a strategy in order to put technocracy on the world agenda.
By Enrique Lescure