Revolutionary Progress in Latin America

[Matty_UK]

In an attempt to predict how things are going in Latin America, I've decided to make a list of how anti-neoliberal movements are going in each country. Please correct any errors and tell me about unknown ones.

Mexico-Zapatistas in Chiapas. Secure and now beginning to look at things on an international scale, although right now it's too dangerous for them to attempt anything being so close to America.
Cuba-In power, popular support and secure
Haiti-Some active resistance
Dominican Republic-?
Guatemala-?
El Salvador-?
Honduras-?
Nicaragua-Sandistas likely to return November 2006
Costa Rica-?
Panama-?
Columbia-Strong insurgency
Ecuador-Popular support for socialism; inevitable victory.
Peru-?
Venezuela-In power, moving towards socialism
Guyana-?
Suriname-?
French Guinea-?
Brazil-Anti-neoliberal moderately left wing government
Bolivia-Set to win next election
Chila-Anti-neoliberal moderately left wing government
Paraguay-?
Argentina-Anti-neoliberal moderately left wing government
Uruguay-Anti-neoliberal moderately left wing government

As you can see, most of them I know little about. Please help me research these countries or tell me about their current status and if socialism is on the up in these countries!

[Matty_UK]

*cries*
No-one ever replies to my topics! :(

[Urban Guerrilla]

I'd reply if I was 100% sure about any of them :che:

[MexAmLeft]

Obrador is expected to win the election in Mexico next year, he is a leftist

[metalero]

Corrections:

Brazil- Populist government with neo-liberal policies
Argentina- Center coalition, moderates.
Uruguay- Left-center coaliton, too slow.
Chile- Social democrats with neoliberal policies
Colombia- Powerful guerrilla army and popular resistance, but also a strong extreme-right paramilitary government
Bolivia and Ecuador-next popular victory

[Zingu]

Belize - Militant labor movement has clashed violently with government, revolutionary situation is a close possiblity. (There was a revoluationary situation a few months ago).

[violencia.Proletariat]

Originally posted by [email protected] 13 2005, 09:52 PM
but also a strong extreme-right paramilitary government

if im not mistaken a big section of the right wing paramilitaries just disarmed, i think it said something like 11,000 on cnn

[metalero]

Originally posted by nate+Oct 14 2005, 02:51 AM--> (nate @ Oct 14 2005, 02:51 AM)
[email protected] 13 2005, 09:52 PM
but also a strong extreme-right paramilitary government

if im not mistaken a big section of the right wing paramilitaries just disarmed, i think it said something like 11,000 on cnn [/b]
the "peace negotiations" between AUC (paramilitaries) and the current government is a farce. They are just trying to legalize all the lands and property that the paramilitaries conquered through mass displacemnet, terror and drug trafick. Also, It is illogical to talk about "negotiations" since paramilitaries have never been against the establishment, all the opposite, they were created and financed by the landlords and the oligarchy to counter land reform and popular uprising. actually, with the recent impunity laws passed, paramilitaries will be forgiven for all the atrocities commited and they have now open way to occupy senate seats and ill shit like that...

[bayano]

first off, we should all recall how extremely bare bones this listing is. but ill help with huge details. MexAmLeft is right that PRD leader Lopez Obrador is slated to win next year's election, altho its up in the air if he'll be another Lula. i would say that the situation in haiti is extremely volatile, and repression is tight. in the DR there was a successful general strike last year, but groups are overall not too strong. in Guatemala and El Salvador the institutional left and 'anti-neo-liberal' movements are mostly united in the former guerrilla groups which have gotten mild an awful lot, the URNG and FMLN respectively, and the FMLN has been doing well in elections. in Honduras, as well as all, there are many community movements amongst the campesinos and indegenas. costa rica was the hard bargain in the US imperial battle for CAFTA, even tho it eventually aquiesced. check out my blog for panama, but mostly it is an issue of a large militant construction union and its leadership in recent successful general strikes. in peru, small town campesinos and indegenas are increasingly militantly anti-neo-liberal, and the current administration has amazingly low approval ratings. i would agree with the correction on brazil, and the hopes for bolivia and ecuador, altho it isnt so clear. i would also agree with the correction on chile, after the socialist party there signed a free trade agreement with the US Empire. in argentina there is resistance to total neo-liberalism, but it isnt necessarily total, and uruguay's marxist government is too young to tell, but so far weak.

[Sankara1983]

The government in Guyana is in big trouble, but a revolutionary situation is far from erupting. First there were revelations that the Home Affairs minister ran death squads, and earlier this year there was major flooding. The three major parties are/were ostensibly socialist (PPP, PNC, WPA). The entrenched PPP government is likely to stay in power because it represents the numerically superior East Indian population. The next elections are in 2006. I predict big gains for the WPA, a non-racial socialist party, but I don't know how radical they are.

Toledo, the president of Peru, has approval ratings consistently hovering around 6 to 8 percent. I'm surprised he hasn't been chased out yet à la Bolivia. On New Year's Day there was a small nationalist revolt by the military, whose leader is a Chávez supporter. Elections are next year and there is no major left-wing alternative.

[fernando]

Peru doesnt really have a leftist candidate except sort of Alan Garcia who is trying to make a return...but I dont know if we should have that thief back into office.

[Tekun]

Obrador? :lol:
That fool is a joke, a corrupted establishment puppet
Marcos called him out a couple of weeks ago for claiming to be leftist, I'll try to look up the link for
Mexico's a quagmire of the poor controlled by America, and they wonder why therez so many immigrants hopin over?

As for Cuba and Venezuela, those two are beeming bright as far as I can tell

Bolivia and Evo Morales look good, MAS is getting popular support from the indigenous, campesinos, students, and the left

Colombia, i feel is at a stalemate
If anything happens, and I doubt it, the US would immediately interfere and destroy las FARC
Plus the paramilitaries are still out there, they just wanna conceal them so as to incriminate the guerillas
The US have claimed on many occasions that Colombia and Uribe are America's closes allie in South America - so I doubt they'd let las FARC overrun the country

Peru and Toledo? :lol:
Due to the recent events in regards to the corruption of Peruvian officials and they're "slap on the hand", Im skeptical about a leftist movement actually changing Peru

I'll be keepin a close eye on Guatemala, or as I like to call her, "mi tierra"

Belize and Haiti look ready for revolution or change, from what I've heard and read
The poverty is the worst in the western hemisphere, the civil unrest, and the movements make them fertile ground for revolution

I'll be keepin tabs on Latin America
The seed of revolution was planted by the guerillas, now its just a matter of time till it starts growin

[Sankara1983]

2007 update on governments in the Americas:

– Antigua and Barbuda: center-left (United Progressive Party)
– Argentina: center-left (Peronist)
– The Bahamas: centrist, liberal (Progressive Liberal Party)
– Barbados: center-left (Barbados Labour Party)
– Belize: centrist, Christian-democratic (People's United Party)
– Bolivia: center-left, oriented toward indigenous people (Movement Towards Socialism)
– Brazil: center-left (Workers' Party, includes some communists and Trotskyists)
– Canada: right-wing conservative (Conservative Party)
– Chile: center-left (Socialist Party, historically associated with Salvador Allende)
– Colombia: right-wing conservative (Uribista)
– Costa Rica: center-left (National Liberation Party)
– Cuba: socialist (Communist Party of Cuba)
– Dominica: center-left (Dominica Labour Party)
– Dominican Republic: centrist, liberal (Dominican Liberation Party)
– Ecuador: center-left ("Alianza PAÍS")
– El Salvador: right-wing conservative (Nationalist Republican Alliance, ex-death squad)
– Grenada: centrist, center-right (New National Party)
– Guatemala: right-wing conservative (GANA coalition)
– Guyana: center-left (People's Progressive Party/Civic, ex-Marxist)
– Haiti: centrist, populist (former Aristide backers)
– Honduras: centrist, liberal (Liberal Party)
– Jamaica: center-left (People's National Party)
– Mexico: right-wing conservative, Roman Catholic (National Action Party)
– Nicaragua: center-left (Sandinistas, former revolutionary movement)
– Panama: centrist, center-left (Democratic Revolutionary Party, former state party of Torrijos régime)
– Paraguay: right-wing conservative (Colorado Party)
– Peru: centrist, center-left, populist (Apristas)
– St. Kitts and Nevis: center-left (SK&N Labour Party)
– St. Lucia: right-wing conservative ("United Workers' Party")
– St. Vincent: center-left (Unity Labour Party, led by an ex-Marxist)
– Suriname: centrist (National Party)
– Trinidad and Tobago: centrist (People's National Movement)
– United States of America: far-right militarist (Republicans)
– Uruguay: center-left (Frente Amplio coalition includes the Communist Party as a minor partner)
– Venezuela: leftist (Chavista coalition)

None of these governments are threatened by significant revolutionary activity. Evo Morales has disappointed many Bolivians, and protest has begun, but this has not turned into a rebellion. In Venezuela, the country closest to a revolutionary situation, the movement is generally pro-government. The Oaxaca movement has been forcibly repressed for the moment, and of course the insurgency in Colombia continues but is not an immediate threat to Álvaro Uribe's government.

[VukBZ2005]

Originally posted by [email protected] 13, 2005 08:59 pm
Belize - Militant labor movement has clashed violently with government, revolutionary situation is a close possiblity. (There was a revoluationary situation a few months ago).
Update on situation in Belize as of 2007 - There is massive discontent, especially from the Belizean working class, but the instruments of the state that are holding the situation in the country from developing any further are both the main trade Unions and the Political parties.

The media acts as if everything is stable, but in reality, it is not, especially when one takes into consideration that the amount of money that the Belizean government is supposed to owe to foreign investors is over a billion dollars, which in turn, causes them to tax the most basic items needed for human survival on a daily basis.

There needs to be increased focus on organization and theoretical progression in the revolutionary groups that are in Belize at this time.

[matiasm]

Originally posted by [email protected] 21, 2005 10:33 am
Peru doesnt really have a leftist candidate except sort of Alan Garcia
I dont even think sort off is even close.. He has rightwing tendencies and has his eye on the upper class, whateva words come out of his mouth shouldnt be beleived. He was in offcie i thikn in the early 90, back then his goverment was corrupt, inflation was on the rise at 7000% annually, and "terrorism" was was activated when he was in office.

Notice the quotation marks around terrorism as that's what the called it but i`m not to sure on this, but something tells me it was'nt exactly that.

Sorry forgot to add, he is from the APRISTA party, they are scum shits who went from a marxist idelogoy to a right wing political party, they also have liberal policies and are in talks to engage in a free trade agreement with the mother leech, the US.

[VukBZ2005]

2nd Update on Situation in Belize in 2007 - It seems that the National Trade Unions Congress of Belize (NTUCB) are on the verge of going on yet another general strike, the third in almost two years.

http://www.channel5belize.com/
http://www.7newsbelize.com/

This latest round of impending industrial action was triggered by the firing of three workers in what is being called a routine "restructuring" by BTL and because they were involved in the second general strike of 2005.

Now, Capitalists and Small Capitalists throughout the country, threatened by the development of another general strike, are grasping for straws and are collectively calling this impending action a route of provoking civil unrest in Belize, hoping to psychologically intimidate Belizean workers.

More as it develops...

[Ander]

Originally posted by [email protected] 13, 2005 10:11 pm
Corrections:

Brazil- Populist government with neo-liberal policies
Argentina- Center coalition, moderates.
Uruguay- Left-center coaliton, too slow.
Chile- Social democrats with neoliberal policies
Colombia- Powerful guerrilla army and popular resistance, but also a strong extreme-right paramilitary government
Bolivia and Ecuador-next popular victory
Thank you for those corrections...my eyes were almost popping out of my skull over the "anti-neoliberals" for a moment.

I live in Brasil, and trust me, this government is definitely not anti-capitalist.

[Guerrilla22]

Are we talking about governments or independent movements. If we're talking about governments, then the only country that can be described a struly socialist is Cuba. There are plenty of worthless reformist, plenty of populist, plenty of right wing pro neo-liberal governments, and in the case of Chile, a socialist governmetn that advocates neo-liberalsim. :wacko:

[Cheung Mo]

Any country governed by a member of the Socialist International must be classified as centrist or centre-right: The SI includes prominent anti-Chavez parties from Venezuela, along with bigots, social reactionaries, American puppets, and even a borderline fascist party (Egypt's National Democratic Party).

[Guerrilla22]

Rigoberta Menchu the next president of Guatemala?