The Future Oil Crisis

[The Feral Underclass]

One of my environmentalist friends said to me today that there was so very little oil left in the world. She told me that the oil fields they found in Alaska is only enough to power the world for eight days.

She has done allot of research on this, and she thinks that even if they do find more oil, it won't be very much and that by 2025, we could have very little to the point of rationing or none at all.

My question is, when this happens what do people think will happen to the world. Considering that many powerful nations are built on selling oil? Industries need oil, especially the new Chinese economy? We need oil to make petrol for out cars, trains, places etc?

The interesting fact is, that the amount of oil we have now is necessary if we are to discover and develop other more sustainable fuel. This means, if we don't stop using the oil for other things, by the time we have run out we won't be able to do what we need to do to sustain the world in its present form.

Could this be the catasrophe that catapults the world into fundamental change? Could this effect or bring about a workers revolution?

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

If the oil runs out and there are no alternatives, we are screwed. Without oil, we would not be able to sustain any form of communist society - it's starvation for most of the world and hunter-gathering for any survivors.

Not pretty, despite what the primitivists would have you believe.

[coda]

<<Without oil, we would not be able to sustain any form of communist society - it&#39;s starvation for most of the world and hunter-gathering for any survivors.>>

Bad, not that bad. We&#39;d just go back to pre-oil industry times, c. 1850&#39;s, if no suitable alternative is found. steam, coal, fire, horse --- that type of thing. cropshare, artisans, cottage industries.

[Enragé]

Originally posted by [email protected] 22 2005, 12:41 AM
<<Without oil, we would not be able to sustain any form of communist society - it&#39;s starvation for most of the world and hunter-gathering for any survivors.>>

Bad, not that bad. We&#39;d just go back to pre-oil industry times, c. 1850&#39;s, if no suitable alternative is found. steam, coal, fire, horse --- that type of thing. cropshare, artisans, cottage industries.
err you do know that coal pollutes more than oil

[coda]

Yup, that&#39;s why it&#39;s called the Oil "crisis"

[redstar2000]

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file...NG46CMUPL60.DTL (http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/05/22/MNG46CMUPL60.DTL)

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[Eastside Revolt]

Yeah it&#39;s a pretty shitty situation. But like Redstar points out, oil sands are looking like the next option. It was funny, two years ago there was this brutal drought (well as butal as a canadian drought can get :P ) and while farmers and towns were totally water starved, the oil companies were pumping rediculous amounts of water into the sands non-stop.

[Organic Revolution]

Originally posted by NewKindOfSoldier+Aug 21 2005, 07:07 PM--> (NewKindOfSoldier @ Aug 21 2005, 07:07 PM)
[email protected] 22 2005, 12:41 AM
<<Without oil, we would not be able to sustain any form of communist society - it&#39;s starvation for most of the world and hunter-gathering for any survivors.>>

Bad, not that bad. We&#39;d just go back to pre-oil industry times, c. 1850&#39;s, if no suitable alternative is found. steam, coal, fire, horse --- that type of thing. cropshare, artisans, cottage industries.
err you do know that coal pollutes more than oil [/b]
She was just stating that it is a form of fuel.

[coda]

Right&#33; That is what I was trying to say&#33;&#33;&#33; hey, atleast somebody got it&#33;

And also trying to say that if we did run out of oil,-- and that&#39;s an IF... civilization would not collapse.. it would be tough... but would not collapse contrary to the peak oil experts predictions, who are probably just warmongers giving credence to the war. We could live wholly without oil and still maintain progress and modernity.

I think there is tons of Oil in the earth either not discovered yet or just not wanting to be drilled. Seems whenever we&#39;re on the brink of so-called near complete depletion.. another vast oil reserve turns up. Very likely there is alot of sources left given that Oil is the 300 million year old fossilized remains of billions and billions of tiny one-celled sea creatures from the Paleozoic Era. So, there must be lots of oil left in certain oceanic areas that hasn&#39;t even been tapped yet since they&#39;ve only been drilling for some 120 years or whatever... they probably haven&#39;t even touched the majority. Still, they should start seriously looking for an alternative cleaner and more reliable energy source. I personally like the wind turbine myself.

Anyway.. not to worry.. but here&#39;s some interesting facts or maybe some urban legends..

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html

[KC]

http://educate-yourself.org/cn/davemcgowan...il05mar05.shtml (http://educate-yourself.org/cn/davemcgowanstalinandabioticoil05mar05.shtml)


Dry oil wells spontaneously refilling? Oil generation and migration systems? Massive oil reserves miles beneath the earth&#39;s surface? Spontaneous venting of enormous volumes of gas and oil?....
The all too obvious question here is: how is any of that explained by a theory that holds that oil and gas are &#39;fossil fuels&#39; created in finite quantities through a unique geological process that occurred millions of years ago?

Enough said.

[anomaly]

But the process of getting the oil from the oil sands is extremely inefficient, using up more energy than is gained from oil. Currently, it seems that not even the Saudis can adequetely supply the world&#39;s oil demand, and they may have reached peak oil there. It will be difficult for the &#39;oil sands&#39; process to keep up with ever increasing worldwide demand. I&#39;ve argued with Redstar on this before, but I&#39;ll point out again that demand has increased worldwide, with China and India needing more and more oil. There is no reason to suspect that they should lower their demand in the coming years (if tendencies are correct, their demand for oil should continue to skyrocket&#33;).

To respond to TAT, yes, I do think that if this oil shortage does come about (predicting the future is tricky stuff), it very well could be the crisis that catapults the world (perhaps) into revolution.

[anomaly]

Originally posted by [email protected] 22 2005, 11:26 PM
Right&#33; That is what I was trying to say&#33;&#33;&#33; hey, atleast somebody got it&#33;

And also trying to say that if we did run out of oil,-- and that&#39;s an IF... civilization would not collapse.. it would be tough... but would not collapse.

There was a time not too long ago-- 140 years (and I was just reading an obit. of a women who just died who was 130, so, not so long ago.. but, before-oil.. and people actually lived in houses and with clothes on, so, they weren&#39;t exactly scavenging around for rudiments to sharpen flint to eat their mastadon with. It is wholly possible to live without oil and still maintain some sort of modernity.

BUT...
I think there is tons of Oil in the earth either not discovered yet or just not wanting to be drilled. Seems whenever we&#39;re on the brink of so-called near complete depletion.. another vast oil reserve turns up. Very likely there is alot of sources left given that Oil is the 300 million year old fossilized remains of billions and billions of tiny one-celled sea creatures from the Paleozoic Era. So, there must be lots of oil left in certain oceanic areas that hasn&#39;t even been tapped yet since they&#39;ve only been drilling for some 120 years or whatever... they probably haven&#39;t even touched the majority. Still, they should start seriously looking for an alternative cleaner and more reliable energy source. I personally like the wind turbine myself.

Anyway.. not to worry.. but here&#39;s some interesting facts or maybe some urban legends..

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html
But how can we get to that oil that is miles beneath the earth&#39;s surface? And who says we&#39;ll find any that is relatively near earth&#39;s surface? Just because oil is there (which is just speculation) does not mean it is useful to us.

[coda]

Right... Well, that is why they should seriously start looking for altenative energy sources.. They are out there. Maybe they won&#39;t have the equally efficient output as Oil has.. but it will keep modern progress going to some extent.

[KC]

Did everybody miss my post or something?

[coda]

good article, lazar... seems plausible to me that oil might just be produced by hydrocarbons in the earths core and not from fossil fuels. Guess that would be one point for Stalin, a big posthumous prize in Science.

[redstar2000]

Originally posted by anomaly
But the process of getting the oil from the oil sands is extremely inefficient, using up more energy than is gained from oil.

On its face, that cannot possibly be a true statement...otherwise, no one would do it. And it is being done&#33;

Shale oil is indeed costly (in energy) to produce...much more so than high-grade oils.

And it&#39;s very polluting...it pretty much wrecks the landscape wherever it&#39;s produced.

But, hey, if that&#39;s what it takes, then that&#39;s what it takes.


I&#39;ve argued with Redstar on this before, but I&#39;ll point out again that demand has increased worldwide, with China and India needing more and more oil.

Then they would be well advised to start exploring for shale oil themselves. The traffic in oil is one thing that may decline in the coming decades. If you live someplace that doesn&#39;t have any, the search for alternative energy sources is imperative.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[lowe]

haven&#39;t you guys read the thread about the air car. it&#39;s like some new future technology. if we run out of oil we could use the air car, or electric cars... or water fuelled cars? I&#39;m sure someone will think of something to fuel our transportation systems...and yea that hydrocarbon thing might work. I&#39;m learning about hydrocarbons and organic chemistry in chem.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

Originally posted by [email protected] 24 2005, 04:36 AM
haven&#39;t you guys read the thread about the air car. it&#39;s like some new future technology. if we run out of oil we could use the air car, or electric cars... or water fuelled cars? I&#39;m sure someone will think of something to fuel our transportation systems...and yea that hydrocarbon thing might work. I&#39;m learning about hydrocarbons and organic chemistry in chem.
And what will we run our power station off? We&#39;ll need power in order to manufacture goods.

[Lord Testicles]

oil is used in much more than energy without oil we wouldn&#39;t have pharmacuticals or plastic

[Reds]

the hurrican in the gulf is sapposed cause gas prices in the U.S to go up to &#036;3.00per gallon becase they hav`t to shut down so many oil rigs.

[Seeker]

oil is used in much more than energy without oil we wouldn&#39;t have pharmacuticals or plastic


It is used as fertilizer too.

Which will make its absence even harder to cope with, since we will have to grow stuff to make pharmacuticals and plastics. More land will have to be prepaired for farming because we&#39;ll be forced to leave some of it unplanted so it can regenerate.


Most cars can be converted to run off of vegetable oil (with a seperate tank of diesel or ethanol for when you first turn the key), so there is another factor that is likely to promote enlarging the human footprint on the planet.