Severian
17th July 2005, 22:44
An opinion piece in Tehran Times says: (http://www.mehrnews.ir/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=207127)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s three-day visit to Tehran has become the center of attention for regional and international media outlets.
Ten Iraqi ministers have accompanied Jaafari on the trip, during which important issues will be discussed such as current developments in Iran, Iraq, and the region, the outlook for political, economic, and security cooperation between the two countries, and ways to fight against the development of Arab terrorism in the region and the world.
...
After the collapse of the dictatorial Baath regime in Iraq, which was the main source of regional insecurity, the occupying forces tried to prevent relations between the two Muslim countries of Iran and Iraq from developing, in the belief that the establishment of friendly relations between Iran and Iraq would lead to the formation of a Shia crescent in the region.
...
Over the past 28 months, the United States has lost about 1800 soldiers in attacks by Arab terrorists, but if the U.S. refuses to review its Iraq policy, it will most likely suffer even more losses.
Furthermore, unless it begins to cooperate with some of the non-Arab neighboring countries of Iraq, [meaning Iran -S] which seek the establishment of peace and security in the region, the U.S. will not only fail to establish security in Iraq, but will also be incapable of providing the necessary security for its own forces.
...
As for the religious and cultural considerations, it should be noted that the Shia religious authorities have remained silent so far in regard to the atrocities and attacks committed by Arab terrorists -- the victims of which are mainly innocent women and children -- because they are well aware of the fact that any kind of unwise reaction would trigger a civil war in Iraq.
The repercussions of a civil war would definitely not be restricted to Iraq’s borders but would undoubtedly affect other countries in the region and the world.
The main factor behind the insecurity is the fact that some of the minority in Iraq do not want a popular government to be established through the normal democratic process but want to turn the clock back to the Saddam Hussein era through the use of violence.
Note that's appearing on a major Iranian news site; which tends to reflect the views of the Iranian overnment.
Tehran Times (http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=7/17/2005&Cat=2&Num=011)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said upon his arrival in Tehran on Saturday afternoon that his country is determined to expand economic and political ties with Iran.
....
“In the current situation in which the Baathist regime of Iraq has been toppled, support for the Iraqi people and their elected leaders has been the policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” [Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza] Aref added.
MacLeans (http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/news/shownews.jsp?content=w071725A)reports Iran's President Khatami made similar comments and that:
Jaafari meets the next day with Mohsen Ahmadinejad, the hardline president-elect who will be replacing the reformist Khatami early next month. Ahmadinejad is expected to pursue the same line of closer ties with Iraq's government - but may put more pressure for the withdrawal of American forces.
According to Reuters (http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-07-16T172726Z_01_N16571818_RTRIDST_0_INTERNATIONAL-IRAN-IRAQ-DC.XML) a number of trade deals and pieces of economic aid are planned.
The two governments are also discussing security cooperation - AFP (http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=17804):
"One of the subcomissions we formed is on security cooperation between two sides. Its aim is really to establish a mechanism for intelligence sharing, to prevent infiltrations and to assist us in stablising the situation," [Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar] Zebari said.
One of Iran's key complaints has been that several thousand members of the People's Mujahedeen armed opposition group remain cantoned in a camp in Iraq under the supervision of US troops. "The Iraqi government policy is that it will definitely not allow any armed militia group or any armed foreign militia group to operate from Iraqi territory against any neighboring country," Zebari said, adding that the group has been "disarmed".
Last week, Iraqi Defense Minister Saadoun Dalimi visited Iran. Al-Jazeera reported: (http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A3B7E6C5-B473-4779-8402-8D48A7299A35.htm)
"It's a new chapter in our relations with Iraq. We will start wide defence cooperation," Iranian Defence Minister Admiral Ali Shamkhani told a joint news conference with visiting Iraqi counterpart Sadoun al-Dulaimi.
"We're going to form some committees which will be involved in mine clearance, identifying those missing from the war and also ... to help train, rebuild and modernise the Iraqi army," Shamkhani added.
Iran last year offered to train Iraqi border guards, but Baghdad declined the offer.
...
Asked about possible US opposition to Iran-Iraq military cooperation, Shamkhani said: "No one can prevent us from reaching an agreement."
Iraq's al-Dulaimi echoed Shamkhani's comments.
"Nobody can dictate to Iraq its relations with other countries," he said.
After returning to Baghdad, UPI reports, (http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=TopNews&article=UPI-1-20050712-08285600-bc-iraq-iran.xml)Iraqi Defense Minister Sadoun Dulaimi has denied part of an agreement with Iran struck last week includes assistance in training the country's new military....He said the agreement did call for Iran to give $1 billion in reconstruction aid to the Iraqi government, some of which would go to the Defense Ministry.
We'll see what comes out of this second, higher-level visit. It's clear that Iran is willing to offer all kinds of aid, including miltiary aid, to Baghdad, in order to enhance its influence. The question is, to what extent can Washington force Baghdad to refuse that aid? So far...not entirely.
It seems likely to me that Washington will have increasing difficulty with this as time continues. And the availability of other aid will strengthen those calling for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Comments?
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s three-day visit to Tehran has become the center of attention for regional and international media outlets.
Ten Iraqi ministers have accompanied Jaafari on the trip, during which important issues will be discussed such as current developments in Iran, Iraq, and the region, the outlook for political, economic, and security cooperation between the two countries, and ways to fight against the development of Arab terrorism in the region and the world.
...
After the collapse of the dictatorial Baath regime in Iraq, which was the main source of regional insecurity, the occupying forces tried to prevent relations between the two Muslim countries of Iran and Iraq from developing, in the belief that the establishment of friendly relations between Iran and Iraq would lead to the formation of a Shia crescent in the region.
...
Over the past 28 months, the United States has lost about 1800 soldiers in attacks by Arab terrorists, but if the U.S. refuses to review its Iraq policy, it will most likely suffer even more losses.
Furthermore, unless it begins to cooperate with some of the non-Arab neighboring countries of Iraq, [meaning Iran -S] which seek the establishment of peace and security in the region, the U.S. will not only fail to establish security in Iraq, but will also be incapable of providing the necessary security for its own forces.
...
As for the religious and cultural considerations, it should be noted that the Shia religious authorities have remained silent so far in regard to the atrocities and attacks committed by Arab terrorists -- the victims of which are mainly innocent women and children -- because they are well aware of the fact that any kind of unwise reaction would trigger a civil war in Iraq.
The repercussions of a civil war would definitely not be restricted to Iraq’s borders but would undoubtedly affect other countries in the region and the world.
The main factor behind the insecurity is the fact that some of the minority in Iraq do not want a popular government to be established through the normal democratic process but want to turn the clock back to the Saddam Hussein era through the use of violence.
Note that's appearing on a major Iranian news site; which tends to reflect the views of the Iranian overnment.
Tehran Times (http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=7/17/2005&Cat=2&Num=011)
Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said upon his arrival in Tehran on Saturday afternoon that his country is determined to expand economic and political ties with Iran.
....
“In the current situation in which the Baathist regime of Iraq has been toppled, support for the Iraqi people and their elected leaders has been the policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” [Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza] Aref added.
MacLeans (http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/news/shownews.jsp?content=w071725A)reports Iran's President Khatami made similar comments and that:
Jaafari meets the next day with Mohsen Ahmadinejad, the hardline president-elect who will be replacing the reformist Khatami early next month. Ahmadinejad is expected to pursue the same line of closer ties with Iraq's government - but may put more pressure for the withdrawal of American forces.
According to Reuters (http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2005-07-16T172726Z_01_N16571818_RTRIDST_0_INTERNATIONAL-IRAN-IRAQ-DC.XML) a number of trade deals and pieces of economic aid are planned.
The two governments are also discussing security cooperation - AFP (http://www.timesofoman.com/newsdetails.asp?newsid=17804):
"One of the subcomissions we formed is on security cooperation between two sides. Its aim is really to establish a mechanism for intelligence sharing, to prevent infiltrations and to assist us in stablising the situation," [Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar] Zebari said.
One of Iran's key complaints has been that several thousand members of the People's Mujahedeen armed opposition group remain cantoned in a camp in Iraq under the supervision of US troops. "The Iraqi government policy is that it will definitely not allow any armed militia group or any armed foreign militia group to operate from Iraqi territory against any neighboring country," Zebari said, adding that the group has been "disarmed".
Last week, Iraqi Defense Minister Saadoun Dalimi visited Iran. Al-Jazeera reported: (http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A3B7E6C5-B473-4779-8402-8D48A7299A35.htm)
"It's a new chapter in our relations with Iraq. We will start wide defence cooperation," Iranian Defence Minister Admiral Ali Shamkhani told a joint news conference with visiting Iraqi counterpart Sadoun al-Dulaimi.
"We're going to form some committees which will be involved in mine clearance, identifying those missing from the war and also ... to help train, rebuild and modernise the Iraqi army," Shamkhani added.
Iran last year offered to train Iraqi border guards, but Baghdad declined the offer.
...
Asked about possible US opposition to Iran-Iraq military cooperation, Shamkhani said: "No one can prevent us from reaching an agreement."
Iraq's al-Dulaimi echoed Shamkhani's comments.
"Nobody can dictate to Iraq its relations with other countries," he said.
After returning to Baghdad, UPI reports, (http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?feed=TopNews&article=UPI-1-20050712-08285600-bc-iraq-iran.xml)Iraqi Defense Minister Sadoun Dulaimi has denied part of an agreement with Iran struck last week includes assistance in training the country's new military....He said the agreement did call for Iran to give $1 billion in reconstruction aid to the Iraqi government, some of which would go to the Defense Ministry.
We'll see what comes out of this second, higher-level visit. It's clear that Iran is willing to offer all kinds of aid, including miltiary aid, to Baghdad, in order to enhance its influence. The question is, to what extent can Washington force Baghdad to refuse that aid? So far...not entirely.
It seems likely to me that Washington will have increasing difficulty with this as time continues. And the availability of other aid will strengthen those calling for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Comments?