Poll: Terrorism Loses Support in Muslim Countries

[Severian]

Los Angeles Times (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-islam15jul15,0,2673510.story?coll=la-home-world)

The article begins:
Public support for Osama bin Laden and terrorist violence has declined markedly in several Muslim countries, although it remains substantial, a new poll shows.

The poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Survey found that confidence in bin Laden "to do the right thing regarding world affairs" fell in four of six sampled countries in the past two years. Support for violence against civilian targets has fallen in five of the six countries.

Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, said the results suggested that "people are tiring of terrorism in these places," perhaps because the countries have themselves suffered terrorist attacks.

At the same time, the figures show there remains "a pretty substantial body of support" for deadly attacks in defense of Islam, Kohut emphasized.

The six Muslim countries included in the poll were Morocco, Indonesia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Turkey and Jordan.

Kohut said the changing attitude toward bin Laden might also reflect a cooling of anger toward the United States since May 2003, when Pew last asked the question. At that time, memories of the March 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq were fresh.

For more details: the polling organization's webpage on the poll. (http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=248)

Comments on likely causes and effects of these changes in attitudes?

[Phalanx]

Yeah, I saw the same poll, but it also said that people in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria have a extremely negative view of Jews (99 percent said they had a negative view of Jews).

[Andy Bowden]

True, but you'll probably find a high % of Israelis have a negative view of Arabs in general as well. I think the reason for decreasing terrorist support lies within the actions of Zarqawi, blowing up Shia mosques.

[Phalanx]

Yeah, I saw a poll that was given to Israelis, but the number was around 20%.

[Andy Bowden]

Only 20%? Thats really surprising :o

Cause I remember reading that a poll basically saying most Israelis didn't particularly care about the Sabra and Shatila massacres.

[redstar2000]

I don't think public opinion polls have very much significance...except perhaps in predicting the outcome of future polls.

A public opinion poll taken a week or so before an election has a pretty high correlation with the actual outcome of that election.

Otherwise, I don't think they mean very much -- people usually know what the "socially acceptable" answer is and usually give it.

Groups that are both active and "socially unacceptable" do not conduct public opinion polls prior to or subsequent to their actions. They are interested in "the long term"...not what people think next week or even next year.

It's long been known among pollsters that how a question is worded can strongly influence the outcome...and a "neutral wording" on a matter of controversy is not easily achieved.

And finally, "public opinion" only means something if the public decides to act on it. We could have a poll that says "99% of all adult Americans think Bush is a wanker"...but unless tens of millions of adult Americans are willing to flood the streets and demand his immediate removal from office, nothing will change.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[Severian]

Originally posted by Andy Bowden+Jul 15 2005, 10:06 AM--> (Andy Bowden @ Jul 15 2005, 10:06 AM) I think the reason for decreasing terrorist support lies within the actions of Zarqawi, blowing up Shia mosques.[/b]
Yes, that and other bombings and attacks in Muslim countries, by people who show zero concern for "collateral damage" or are actively seeking to rack up civilian casualties. There've been deadly bombings in most of the countries polled. Other articles on this poll have suggested that as a reason.

Jordan is an exception (there was one attempt by Zarqawi's group), which may be one reason why support for bombings is still high. (It plummets when people are asked about attacks within Jordan. Similarly, many people on this board are happy to cheer on reactionary nationalists in Iraq but not so happy when a similar group strikes in London.

Or it may be because most people in Jordan are Palestinian, and they're mostly thinking of actions in Israel and the occupied territories.

It's apparently not because of Iraq, Jordanian support for suicide bombings in Iraq has dropped steeply, and is lower than support for bombings against civilians "in defense of Islam" generally.

http://pewglobal.org/reports/images/248-31.gif

I can think of other possible reasons as well; noticing it's been massively counterproductive for example. Al-Qaeda's stated motive is to push the U.S. out but in fact they've drawn it further in...no luck in breaking the U.S. army on the peaks of the Pamirs, as bin Laden boasted he would, either.


Chinghis [email protected] 15 2005, 10:03 AM
Yeah, I saw the same poll, but it also said that people in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria have a extremely negative view of Jews (99 percent said they had a negative view of Jews).
Right, and the numbers were 82% or higher in all the Muslim countries polled, even Indonesia and Turkey. I agree that's a problem and needs to be combatted. Example: During the Asian currency crisis, the Malaysian dictator came out and blamed the Jews and made some Palestine analogy. This is the same way reactionaries have always used anti-Semitism, as the "socialism of fools" to divert anger away from capitalism. Probably had something to do with the similar scapegoating of the "overseas Chinese" which is common in a number of southeast Asian countries, also.

****

Redstar, I've seen you cite opinion polls in the past when you liked the results. So I gotta wonder if this is just another example of you refusing to look at any fact which conflicts with your preconceptions, aka "doesn't make sense" to you. (In this case, possibly because it shows the weakening of the reactionary bourgeois nationalists who you've pinned your hopes on.)

[JC1]

RS2K: That was a realy solid post. I think its bullshit when they say " 99% of Arabs Hate Jews " , becuase I have had quite a few Arab Freinds who were Vetrans of the Lebonesse war of Self Defense on Israel (And Im a Jew). That poll was conducted so KKKHristian Zionists in the U$ cpould say " those arabs are all jew haters ".

We have no Idea of the Question asked or the Circumstance in witch the polls were taken ( Or even if the polls realy were taken ).

[Severian]

Originally posted by [email protected] 17 2005, 01:55 PM
We have no Idea of the Question asked or the Circumstance in witch the polls were taken ( Or even if the polls realy were taken ).
If you follow the second link in my first post you can find out all those things. Including the wording of the questions, which certainly is an important thing to know in understanding polls.

But in this case it appears you just object to the result.

[redstar2000]

Originally posted by Severian
Redstar, I've seen you cite opinion polls in the past when you liked the results.

Indeed you have...most notably the polls that reflect declining religious belief, church attendance, etc.

But polls are not "Oracles of Delphi" and it's a mistake to think that they are "real" in some "ultimate" sense.

How much confidence you want to place in a particular poll or a particular polling firm is up to you...but I do think skepticism is in order, for the reasons I mentioned in my initial post in this thread.

I do not think that it's "beyond credibility" for people being polled to be dishonest in their answers or for polling companies to tell those who paid for the poll "what they want to hear".

I am especially skeptical of polls conducted anywhere in the Middle East at this particular time, of course. That whole region is "under the shadow" of U.S. imperialism even where direct military occupation is not yet in place.

Who is going to give an honest answer at gunpoint?

Or even ask an honest question?

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[Phalanx]

Originally posted by [email protected] 17 2005, 07:55 PM
RS2K: That was a realy solid post. I think its bullshit when they say " 99% of Arabs Hate Jews " , becuase I have had quite a few Arab Freinds who were Vetrans of the Lebonesse war of Self Defense on Israel (And Im a Jew). That poll was conducted so KKKHristian Zionists in the U$ cpould say " those arabs are all jew haters ".

We have no Idea of the Question asked or the Circumstance in witch the polls were taken ( Or even if the polls realy were taken ).
Hey man, sorry, I saw it on the BBC. Like Redstar said, many polls have no significance whatsoever. Anyway, the poll applied to Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria, not ALL Arabs in general. I don't know how the question was worded anyway, so that's another hole in the poll.

Also: It included Christians as well, so I'm not sure if the christian zionist far-right had a hand in the poll.