encephalon
30th May 2005, 07:36
I wasn't sure where else to place this, but after some thought decided this was indeed the best place, as it could potentially have to do with future activity and planning.
http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,...tw=wn_tophead_3 (http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,67679,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_3)
You may have read this article by today in your local newspaper (if you bother reading it.. I don't blame you if you don't). It's about a few prominent industry analysts coming out and saying that within the next ten years, we'll have reached the peak of global oil discovery and production, and then will face a sharp decline. This will, in turn, devastate the world economy, as nearly everything, big and small, depends on oil.. terrible inflation, unemployment, etc.
Their predictions are based on a model that was proven accurate decades ago, although people doubted the guy who came up with it and most didn't take it seriously at all. He theorized that US oil production would peak at 1970 and then sharply decline, while everyone else thought that market forces would create better extraction methods, lower prices, etc.. as you could probably guess, the theory turned out to be correct. Those saying this now have simply extended this theory to a global scale. You'll have to read the article to hear why they say alternative energy sources won't make up for it now, nor market forces. It's an interesting read, anyhow.
Now, here's why this is in the practice section: this is what I would consider the end-all-be-all of market crashes.. think about what depends on oil.. everything. Even plastic has petroleum in it, not to mention the electricity used in the manufacture process. Not only that, the crash would be nearly irrecoverable, at least at the same pace the market went beforehand.. there is no infrastructure to build upon when the oil begins to disappear. No driving (except for the extremely wealthy). No plastic production. Limited electicity (although many plants still use coal). Everything will come to a screeching and abrupt halt.
I think the far-right knows this. Obviously. That's why they've consolidated their power in the middle east, likely the last place to run dry. Still, it will run dry, at least for capitalism: if there's no profit in it, it's useless.
The point is: shouldn't we be prepared for such circumstances to arise, even if we don't think it will happen in our lifetimes? Although, frankly, I'm increasingly convinced that it will at least start in my life-time, though likely not resolve. It is at the very least possible that the final crash could come much, much sooner than we thought.
Any thoughts on this?
EDIT: just noticed this is the politics section, not practice. ah well.
http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,...tw=wn_tophead_3 (http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,67679,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_3)
You may have read this article by today in your local newspaper (if you bother reading it.. I don't blame you if you don't). It's about a few prominent industry analysts coming out and saying that within the next ten years, we'll have reached the peak of global oil discovery and production, and then will face a sharp decline. This will, in turn, devastate the world economy, as nearly everything, big and small, depends on oil.. terrible inflation, unemployment, etc.
Their predictions are based on a model that was proven accurate decades ago, although people doubted the guy who came up with it and most didn't take it seriously at all. He theorized that US oil production would peak at 1970 and then sharply decline, while everyone else thought that market forces would create better extraction methods, lower prices, etc.. as you could probably guess, the theory turned out to be correct. Those saying this now have simply extended this theory to a global scale. You'll have to read the article to hear why they say alternative energy sources won't make up for it now, nor market forces. It's an interesting read, anyhow.
Now, here's why this is in the practice section: this is what I would consider the end-all-be-all of market crashes.. think about what depends on oil.. everything. Even plastic has petroleum in it, not to mention the electricity used in the manufacture process. Not only that, the crash would be nearly irrecoverable, at least at the same pace the market went beforehand.. there is no infrastructure to build upon when the oil begins to disappear. No driving (except for the extremely wealthy). No plastic production. Limited electicity (although many plants still use coal). Everything will come to a screeching and abrupt halt.
I think the far-right knows this. Obviously. That's why they've consolidated their power in the middle east, likely the last place to run dry. Still, it will run dry, at least for capitalism: if there's no profit in it, it's useless.
The point is: shouldn't we be prepared for such circumstances to arise, even if we don't think it will happen in our lifetimes? Although, frankly, I'm increasingly convinced that it will at least start in my life-time, though likely not resolve. It is at the very least possible that the final crash could come much, much sooner than we thought.
Any thoughts on this?
EDIT: just noticed this is the politics section, not practice. ah well.