Iraq: Civil War?

[Phalanx]

Lately in Iraq, the insurgents (or freedom fighters, whichever you prefer) are increasingly targeting Shitte clerics and mosques. Most of this violence is being blamed on the Sunnis, who are the most active group in the insurgency. I'm just wondering if anyone thinks it could turn into a full civil war.

[viva le revolution]

Well actually a civil war already exists in Iraq! Each group has it's own region of dominance with mistrust rife between these groups. With the kurds and their own government and Peshmerga(armed forces).
The Sunni's dominant in the "triangle of death".
The Shias dominant in the rest of Iraq.

Each has a disproportionate number of representatives in the new Iraqi "government".
Each has loyalties of their own. The Shias with Iran, The Sunni's with Syria, and the Kurds to their own government!
A civil war does exist just not declared yet!

[Severian]

In a sense it does already exist; with the new Iraqi army, mostly Shi'a and Kurdish, fighting Sunni Arab insurgents. I saw an article a while back about all the "out of town" soldiers, police, and militia, mostly Shi'a, who are patrolling Ramadi. Which is a Sunni Arab insurgent stronghold where local police have quit.

For all the warnings about the "danger" of civil war, it has in reality been a goal of U.S. policy to bring this about - and now to increase it, by recruiting more Iraqi soldiers and increasing their training, motivation and effectiveness. They've been seeking to turn the imperialist war into a civil war, to invert one of Lenin's slogans. Get Iraqis to do their fighting.

A couple further developments down this road:
The formation of a Sunni Arab political front. (http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4&section=0&article=64161&d=22&m=5&y=2005)
Directed mostly for the interests of that group vs Shi'a and Kurds.

And second, also mentioned in that article, the beginning of possible revenge killings by Shi'a against Sunni. At least that's the accusation, that Shi'a are responsible for the recent killing of several Sunni clerics.

Up 'til now Shi'a have not retaliated in kind for the numerous mass murders of Shi'a by Sunni Arab bigots. If that is changing...could get even bloodier.

Some groups, like "al-Qaeda in Iraq" have been actively seeking to provoke such retaliation...they oughta give a little thought to the fact that Sunni Arabs are a minority.

[redstar2000]

Much to Severian's surprise (and mine!), there do seem to exist actual numbers on who the Iraqi resistance attacks...and who it doesn't.

http://www.lefthook.org/Charts/CSIS.jpg

http://www.lefthook.org/Charts/NYTimes.jpg

The overwhelming number of attacks is directed against the occupation forces.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[Severian]

Thanks for that. Useful info, and set me on the trail of uncovering some more.

But if they counted number of casualties the number might be somewhat different.

'Course, there's a reason they call 'em "soft targets" and "hard targets." Soft=easier.

Aha! (http://montages.blogspot.com/2005/04/casualties-of-colonial-wars-kenya-and.html)

It's an article with those charts and some others, compares number of attacks and number of casualties - yes, most of those killed by resistance attacks are Iraqi civilians - and discusses casualties inflicted by the occupation forces - also mostly civilians, and larger than the resistance's deathtoll not suprisingly.

All these numbers are somewhat out of date - the newest from January 2005, the oldest are totals from sometime in 2003 to sometimes in 2004. The number and deadliness of Sunni-Arab- supremacist attacks on Iraqi civilians risen greatly over time. But a certain lag in statistics is inevitable.

Only thing missing, is the casualties inflicted by the client regime's army. Which would be important for tracking motion towards civil war.

[bolshevik butcher]

Originally posted by [email protected] 22 2005, 05:05 AM
Much to Severian's surprise (and mine!), there do seem to exist actual numbers on who the Iraqi resistance attacks...and who it doesn't.

http://www.lefthook.org/Charts/CSIS.jpg

http://www.lefthook.org/Charts/NYTimes.jpg

The overwhelming number of attacks is directed against the occupation forces.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif
Are these reliable figures? It's jsut i ahd a huge arguement with my mum about the resistance last night coz she said that they were jsut murderers who killed there own people.

[bunk]

I think there's already a civil war going on between Sunni and Shia, it's just not well reported.

[slim]

I agree,

Civil war in Iraq was inevitable since the invasion. It will be either between the US forces and militants or an arguably more bloody war of the sunni and shia communities. If it is between the two religious groups then the war in the middle east will get a lot messier.