Is Castro Evolving?

[aztecklaw]

I strongly disagree with Castro's Cuba today, but it's hard to make a fair judgement due to the fact that here in the States, my eye into Cuba only reaches so far and not very far at all.

Castro said in a speech [4/9/2005]: "I feel more and more pulled by the ideas of Marx, Engels and Lenin."

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_n...05040911101.xml (http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Americas&month=April2005&file=World_News2005040911101.xml)

But he seems to be changing. There has been dramatic change in Cuba recently that shows that Castro is changing and evolving into something different. I'm very interested in Cuba and how it has changed and how it will be changing in the near future.

Does anyone feel it is for the better?

Any names to drop as far as Castro's speculated successor?

Will Castro's death mean Cuba's return to Western ideals?

[Severian]

No, he won't take a "Marxist turn" for the simple reason that he's already a Marxist and has been for over 40 years.

[redstar2000]

Well, Cuba is more than "just Castro" as an individual...and we can't really know what people intend except by looking at what they say and do.

The private sector is steadily increasing in importance in the Cuban economy...and this is bound to have political consequences.

One outcome that seems quite possible to me is that Cuba will devolve into a tropical "Sweden"...that is, a country dominated by a new capitalist class but with an unusually elaborate "social safety net". If oil is discovered in Cuban territorial waters, this becomes an even more practical option.

I do expect "revolutionary rhetoric" to continue its steady decline (see the thread on Fidel and the Pope in this forum).

There no longer seems to be any sentiment in Cuba for "revolutionary advances"...but rather a sort of "business-as-usual" attitude.

In a way, Cuba kind of reminds me of the USSR in the Khrushchev era...just plodding along with little sense of direction.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[SpeCtrE]

Originally posted by [email protected] 18 2005, 01:58 AM
No, he won't take a "Marxist turn" for the simple reason that he's already a Marxist and has been for over 40 years.
Actually, he claims to be a Marxist,.. ;) . But no one knows for sure

[bolshevik butcher]

red star, are youus aying htat in the stlin era that ussr was socailist then? I think that you have a point though, cuba just seems to be becoming state capitalsts, and the next step would be a 'free' market.

[RedAnarchist]

The only reason why Castro advocated Communism was beacuse of Che's influence and beacuse of American imperialistic pressure on Cuba at the time - Batista was a lapdog of the yanks, remember, and they didint like the fact that some bunch of revolutionaries had dared to removed their puppet.

[redstar2000]

Originally posted by Clenched [email protected] 18 2005, 07:21 AM
red star, are you saying that in the stalin era that ussr was socialist then? I think that you have a point though, cuba just seems to be becoming state capitalsts, and the next step would be a 'free' market.
I think that the CPSU(B) in the "Stalin era" sincerely believed that they "were building socialism" -- that subjectively they thought they were "advancing towards communism", etc.

That their understanding of these matters was deeply at variance with material reality is something that only became apparent later on.

We know now that any kind of possibility for real socialism died with the 10th Party Congress in 1921.

Without any power in the hands of the working class, the only question after 1921 was private (normal) capitalism (the NEP) or state-monopoly capitalism. The "Stalinists" opted for the latter because they thought it was "the path to socialism". (I think Lenin told them that, if I'm not mistaken.)

State-monopoly capitalism is not the "path to socialism" of course...it's the path back to normal monopoly capitalism.

I don't get the feeling from Cuba that people there subjectively think that they are "building socialism" or "advancing towards communism" any longer. Their state-monopoly capitalism is "drifting" back to capitalism.

I don't see anything that could stop this process, short of a major uprising by the Cuban working class...and that doesn't seem too likely at this point.

Naturally, I'd love to be wrong about that.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[OleMarxco]

I even heard (from a Norwegian Radio Man who visits countries and "reports" back) that Havana in Cuba has Cabs from the 50's, a barbrer with a chair for one customer and a waiting bench for three - with a hole in the wall as a "door", and a whole side of town for gold-jewelry shops and rolex-selling thieves. Is this true? ;)

[Karl Marx's Camel]

I don't see anything that could stop this process, short of a major uprising by the Cuban working class...and that doesn't seem too likely at this point.

Naturally, I'd love to be wrong about that.


You mean toppling Castro and the government, and establish a socialist society, without the ruling party we see today?


What do you think the Cuban working class should do, realistically speaking?

[Redmau5]

Is that it then ? Everytime any sort of communist regime is established it's only a matter of time before it degenerates back into capitalism ? If it is, then the future looks very depressing indeed.

[RedAnarchist]

Well, at least we can feel happy for the Cuban people. For many decades they have not had to be restrained by the American yoke. Imagine what Cuba could have been like if Batista and other Yank-arse kissers had been in power. Yes, Cuba is not socialist. Yes, Cuba looks like it will most likley be capitalist by the end of Castro's life. However, Cuba is still better in many ways than many countries.

[redstar2000]

Originally posted by NWOG+--> (NWOG)You mean toppling Castro and the government, and establish a socialist society, without the ruling party we see today?[/b]

Well, Castro needs to retire...and so, most likely, does his brother.

Indeed, we can assume with some confidence that all the entrenched leadership of the party needs to be replaced -- there's probably not a single communist in the whole bunch.

Were the lower (and younger) levels of the party to "seize power" backed by a popular uprising, some interesting progress might be made.

It sort of depends on how deep the rot (bourgeois ideas) has spread.

The best prospect, of course, would be a massive general strike followed by new working class organs of power...a real proletarian revolution.

But I have to be honest; I don't think the Cuban proletariat is "ready" to do anything like that.

The objective material conditions are "pulling" Cuba back to capitalism...and it would "take a lot" to even temporarily overcome that.


What do you think the Cuban working class should do, realistically speaking?

The same thing that I think workers should do in every country...RAISE HELL!

No one "gives" the working class anything; the workers have to fight like hell for even the smallest improvements...much less actually getting hold of some real power.

It would be presumptuous of me to suggest how they should structure their struggles, what they should specifically demand at this point, etc. I don't live there and I'm obviously unfamiliar with the details concerning what is practical there, etc.

But I do know this: the more they demand and the harder they fight...the more they'll get.

That's a "universal law" of class struggle.


Makaveli_05
Is that it then? Everytime any sort of communist regime is established it's only a matter of time before it degenerates back into capitalism?

It depends on objective material conditions.

Marx thought that proletarian revolution and communism were only possible when capitalism had exhausted its productive capacities and had become, in fact, an obstacle to any further human progress.

In countries like Russia, China, Cuba, etc., it's pretty obvious that such was not the case -- what those countries needed was a modern bourgeois revolution...and, in a roundabout way, that's exactly what happened.

If Marx was right, then the real proletarian revolutions will take place in the most advanced capitalist countries...and they will not "go back" to capitalism because capitalism is materially no longer a "viable social order".

The 20th century was the "false dawn" of communism; this century will see the real thing.

http://www.websmileys.com/sm/cool/123.gif

[Redmau5]

"Better" isn't good enough. It may be better than the other capitalist countries but it's only a matter of time before Cuba falls into capitalist hands and the old way of life returns.

[Shevek]

Know what, It almost doesn't matter what the hell Castro is. He's a dinosaur and soon he'll be dead like John Paul the Second, I mean how old is this guy.

The second this prick is dead the bourgouis is going to revolt big time and re-establish capitalism. For such is the fate of a degenerated worker's state.

[Severian]

Originally posted by [email protected] 18 2005, 10:28 AM
"Better" isn't good enough. It may be better than the other capitalist countries but it's only a matter of time before Cuba falls into capitalist hands and the old way of life returns.
A glaring self-contradiction: first it's stated that Cuba is capitalist ("other capitalist countries"), then that capitalism will be restored there soon.

Both counterrevolutionaries and pseudo-revolutionaries have been predicting the demise of the Cuban revolution for 40 years. You'd think that the constant failure of their predictions would lead them to reevaluate their assessment and theory.

[viva le revolution]

I fell optimistic about Cuba's future. The only way communism can survive is if the revolution spreads to other countries, otherwise it becomes a "pariah" state and eventually reverts back to capitalism due to econmic isolation by the rest of the world.
With the socialist revolution spread to Venezuela, Cuba finally has some support within the latin american continent. i expect that with both countries' anti-U.S and anti-imperialist stance, economic co-operation between the two will go furthur than the recent trade agreement signed between the two. With the support of Venezuela, i feel that we may see more of the old Castro and the diminishing of the capitalist influence in Cuba.