Revolution in Europe

[Subversive Pessimist]

As far as I've understood, you believe the next revolution will be in Europe. That's all good, but today's communist revolutions are mostly in relatively backward countries like Colombia, Turkey, India, Nepal and the Phillipines.

So why do you believe Europe will be the next target for a revolution?

[redstar2000]

If Marx was right, the revolutions to which you refer will actually establish modern capitalist societies (inspite of all the red flags and Marxist rhetoric).

Proletarian revolution is a development that only takes place when the productive possibilities of capitalism have been exhausted...and I think that will happen initially in western Europe.

In addition, there are other favorable factors...

1. The European working class has a long tradition of active class struggle...communist ideas do not sound "strange" or "other-worldly" to them.

2. The E.U. has served to diminish patriotism, thus weakening an important obstacle to international proletarian solidarity.

3. Religion has sharply declined in western Europe; it's just as reactionary there as it is anywhere...but its influence has been muted. I think that trend will continue.

If you are a young revolutionary in the U.S. or Canada and you actually want to participate in a real communist revolution in your own lifetime...western Europe is your "best shot". Pay particular attention to the French proletariat -- they may well be the ones who "begin the festivities".

:redstar2000:

The Redstar2000 Papers (http://www.redstar2000papers.fightcapitalism.net)
A site about communist ideas

[Subversive Pessimist]

Well, todays proletariat in Western Europe live in pretty good conditions. I'm from Europe, and I only believe a revolution would happen if they themselves gained from it. I don't think Europeans in the West would actually bother to even think of starting a revolution, if they weren't opressed or they would lack food, water, or basic things like this. I agree with your points, but I still don't think we will revolt.

We have Xbox, DVD, boats, 2-3 cars, several houses etc. etc. hardly sounds like someone who is exploited, don't you think? I think this is the main problem.

The European Army is also very strong and technological advanced.


Also, I don't believe it would be a communist revolution, because the word communism in itself has a very bad reputation. A lot of people don't see any big difference between Nazism and communism, so I doubt it will be under a red banner. I think the closest they would go, would be to install a reformist dictator like Chaves or Allende, but that's it.

So personally I think the only thing would have to be if there was:

1. Serious abuse of power
2. Or a serious lack of food, water, medicine etc. caused by capitalism

I don't see it happening in the near future.

[Louis Pio]

Well, todays proletariat in Western Europe live in pretty good conditions. I'm from Europe, and I only believe a revolution would happen if they themselves gained from it. I don't think Europeans in the West would actually bother to even think of starting a revolution, if they weren't opressed or they would lack food, water, or basic things like this. I agree with your points, but I still don't think we will revolt.

Living conditions are under attack in all of Europe. This can easily spark of social unrest and does so.


The European Army is also very strong and technological advanced.

Revolutionary work by any honest marxist of course includes work in the army.
The army get affected by what is happening in society as all other people does.


Also, I don't believe it would be a communist revolution, because the word communism in itself has a very bad reputation. A lot of people don't see any big difference between Nazism and communism, so I doubt it will be under a red banner.

People's minds are not static. Also I think you have a very dark outlook. My impression is that if you patiently explain your ides to people they listen.


Right now we are living in one of the most unstable periods. Things can change very quikly. In my oppinion we are going to have lots of oppotunities in the years to come. Both in Latin America, Asia and Europe. Hell even the USA, it's one of the most social unstabble countries

[Subversive Pessimist]

People's minds are not static.


Sure. But even mentality from the feudal ages hold strong in todays society. Changing the minds of the masses takes a lot of time, and patience.



Also I think you have a very dark outlook.

I'm far from negative. Just trying to be realistic. We have plenty of revolutions in 3rd world countries, and that's great, but I just don't think it will happen in the wealthy European countries in any time soon. On the other hand, I expect there to be several revolutions in Eastern Europe the next 10-20 years, when people realize life was better under USSR, like the majority of people do today. And it wasn't many years ago there was a [failed] revolution in Russia.

[Louis Pio]

Sure. But even mentality from the feudal ages hold strong in todays society. Changing the minds of the masses takes a lot of time, and patience.

No, but the countries you mentioned first it can be the case. Anyway what exactly do you mean by that?

[Subversive Pessimist]

Anyway what exactly do you mean by that?


Fear, anger and violence against homosexuals, fear of nudity, christianity and customs related to religion. I'm no history major, but I think these things were promoted in the feudal era.

[monkeydust]

I basically agree with Redstar on this issue. But I contest this point:


2. The E.U. has served to diminish patriotism, thus weakening an important obstacle to international proletarian solidarity

I'd argue that further EU integration has, in many ways, served to fuel further patriotism in the member states. Perhaps the high vote achieved by the UK independence party in June was a testament to this.

[redstar2000]

I'd argue that further EU integration has, in many ways, served to fuel further patriotism in the member states.

Well there's some "blowback"...sure. A lot of older folks still identify with their "fatherlands" and resent the faceless bureaucrats in Brussels, etc. But I don't think they're going to amount to much in the long run...most people in Europe know that dreams of "national glory" are a thing of the past.

The English are an exception to this...the Americans have offered them a pale reproduction of imperial glory as "junior partners" of U.S. imperialism and a substantial number of the English find that to be an attractive offer. Some of them wish they were 25 miles off the coast of New York rather than France.

A lot depends on the imperial successes (or lack of same) of the United States...if the English find themselves in one barrel of shit after another as a result of following America's lead, then Europe will look more and more attractive to them.

So we'll see.

:redstar2000:

The Redstar2000 Papers (http://www.redstar2000papers.fightcapitalism.net)
A site about communist ideas

[PRC-UTE]

This is a very interesting thread.

There are definitely emerging the material conditions for a revolution in Europe. It seems there is always a massive strike going on there somewhere . . . spain, france especially. In Germany the workers were strong enuf to fight off an attempted invasion by Wal-Mart!



It's also not too hard to imagine (although much less likely for sure) there coming to a head conflict between the USA and Europe. After Iraq switched to a Euro based economy and ditched the dollar it was practically guaranteed there would be another US led invasion. The USA won't let Europe gain access to petroleum.

Anyway, the Euro is economically challenging the US Empire while the Yankee empire can only respond in the area where it is still undisputed champ - war.

[__ca va?]

On the other hand, I expect there to be several revolutions in Eastern Europe the next 10-20 years, when people realize life was better under USSR, like the majority of people do today. And it wasn't many years ago there was a [failed] revolution in Russia.

Well Eastern Europe is the last place where a communist revolutionn could break out! The economy grows twice as fast as in Western Europe and living standards also grow fast. It's a big, but not the biggest part of society which thinks that life was better under communist rule. Here in Hungary many think about the socialist decades with nostalgia but that doesn't mean they want it back! They consider socialist rule as a rule of tyranny. In fact if you say you're communist the larger part of the people would think you're crazy and an other large part would depict you the Satan... Only a few would agree with you. And these are the contitions only in Hungary where the leadership was the most benignant! What do other eastern people think then?! :blink:

[h&s]

Originally posted by redstar2000+--> (redstar2000)Proletarian revolution is a development that only takes place when the productive possibilities of capitalism have been exhausted...and I think that will happen initially in western Europe[/b]
I agree with you on that, but I think this will lead to revolution elsewhere before it happens in Europe. The €U can survive a collapse for a lot longer than other countries can. Sure, there will be strikes and civil unrest (the French will strike over anything) but I can't see revoltion being an immediate possibility. The €U makes up somewhere in the region of 1/3 of all world trade and if the €U were to collapse I rekon this would promote revolution in third world countries that relied on Europe. That may encourage the European countries to take further action.

comrade strawberry
We have Xbox, DVD, boats, 2-3 cars, several houses etc. etc. hardly sounds like someone who is exploited, don't you think? I think this is the main problem.

Do you really think so? Do you not think the debt that got the people these things is exploitation? And do you really actually know anyone with, 'boats, 2-3 cars,' and, 'several houses?' I cetainly don't.....

[DaCuBaN]

The E.U. has served to diminish patriotism, thus weakening an important obstacle to international proletarian solidarity.

The 'patriotism' has not dissapated: it has transcended into anti-americanism.

[James]

indeed, the nationalist parties have recently increased their votes in the european elections.

But the point still stands, to an extent

[redstar2000]

I agree with you on that, but I think this will lead to revolution elsewhere before it happens in Europe.

Well, you didn't mention any alternatives...and I find it difficult to imagine any myself. Japan and a reunited Korea might prove a formidable combination...especially if Taiwan could join in. How communist revolution will "play out" in Asia is really "uncharted waters" for me.

Brazil plus Argentina plus perhaps Venezuela would be a potent combination...but I just don't have any confidence that they will be really ready for communism anytime soon.

And I agree with the post that played down the possibilities in Eastern Europe...they simply haven't had time yet to see for themselves where the capitalist road leads.

So that don't leave much.


Sure, there will be strikes and civil unrest (the French will strike over anything) but I can't see revolution being an immediate possibility.

Please don't misunderstand me; there's no place where proletarian revolution is "an immediate possibility". My time frame would look something like this...

2040-2075: proletarian revolution in France, Italy, Spain, Greece...spreading rapidly to Germany and Scandinavia.

2075-2125: proletarian revolution in North America, Japan, Australia, etc.

2125-2200: proletarian revolution in Russia, eastern Europe, Latin America, China, India, Union of South Africa, etc.

2200 and forward: proletarian revolution in the Middle East, remainder of Africa...general end of capitalism.

It really is "a long haul".

:redstar2000:

The Redstar2000 Papers (http://www.redstar2000papers.fightcapitalism.net)
A site about communist ideas

[Essential Insignificance]

My personal opinion of revolution breaking out; is in the Southern European nations--Greece, Italy and Spain.

Spain it seems, has developed an countrywide mentality of "democratic socialism", although this, could be latter an encumbrance rather then a virtue.


We have Xbox, DVD, boats, 2-3 cars, several houses etc. etc. hardly sounds like someone who is exploited, don't you think? I think this is the main problem.

Come on Strawberry!!!

[Hawker]

The European Army is also very strong and technological advanced.

The people are the walls,the people are the castles.An army may have technology and they may build great fortifications,but it is the people who win wars.As they say in sports 'The ones who win are the ones who want it the most'.

They may outnumber us but we can you that to our advantage.I've studied military strategies,tactics,logistics,guerrilla warfare,etc. The works.If a revolution should erupt in Europe I will not hesitate to join my comrades in arm.

[h&s]

Somehow I doubt revolution in Europe will ever be an armed uprising or guerilla warfare. I believe it is only possible through mobilisation of the unions. A general strike can collapse the strongest of governments. Sure, it may have to include a little bit of shooting at the soldiers with your Klashnikovs, but that wouldn't do much good as all modern soldiers wear flak-jackets that can withstand a hit from an AK.


Sure, there will be strikes and civil unrest (the French will strike over anything) but I can't see revolution being an immediate possibility.



Please don't misunderstand me; there's no place where proletarian revolution is "an immediate possibility".
Oh I know that, I meant immediatly after any sort of collapse of capitalism.

[Morpheus]

The next big revolution will probably be an international revolution. The world today is much more closely integrated, both economically (multinational corporations) and politically (a single empire rules most of the globe). When that empire comes down it will open up all sorts of doors for revolutions around the world. The revolution will probably be strongest in the "third world," or parts of it, although it may engulf parts of the "first world." Revolution is more likely in places like Argentina & Brazil because those areas have more unrest & the people are more oppressed, leading to more rebellion and more militant & radical rebellion.


Proletarian revolution is a development that only takes place when the productive possibilities of capitalism have been exhausted...and I think that will happen initially in western Europe.

I have yet to see proof that proletarian revolution can happen only under those conditions, or that the productive possibilities can be fully exhausted. Even if we ignore that, Western Europe or any capitalist society that exhausts the productive possibilities of capitalism can make up for this by invading other areas that haven't exhausted those possibilities and robbing them. This prevents revolution by gaining another source of surplus value and by using nationalism to distract/suppress revolt ("war is the health of the state" and all that). This would shift the revolution to the conquered areas, who would have to fight both the invaders & their own ruling class.


In addition, there are other favorable factors...

1. The European working class has a long tradition of active class struggle...communist ideas do not sound "strange" or "other-worldly" to them.

So do many parts of the "third world."


2. The E.U. has served to diminish patriotism, thus weakening an important obstacle to international proletarian solidarity.

And replacing it with Pan-European nationalism, currently manifesting itself in anti-americanism.

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

Originally posted by [email protected] 6 2004, 01:44 PM
If Marx was right, the revolutions to which you refer will actually establish modern capitalist societies (inspite of all the red flags and Marxist rhetoric).





So am I to understand you believe a succesful revolution in the 'developing' world is impossible?

[Edward Norton]

It is essential for all communists/socialists/revolutionaries in Europe to unite on a continental wide basis.

A revolution in only one European country would be isolated from the start and either be crushed from external/internal conter-revolution or would degenerate into a Stalinist state which would put it's own interests above that of communist revolution in other countries, in other words a repetition of the USSR.

All revolutionaries in Europe should work towards all forms of cross border and continental unity in both theory and practice. Ideally the merging of revolutionary groups into a pan-European Communist organisation.