Misodoctakleidist
26th July 2004, 18:18
Monday July 26, 2004
Opinion polls in the Arab world are a comparatively rare event, but last week there were two and their message was very clear: US foreign policy is a disaster.
One poll was commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI) and the other by the University of Maryland. Both were conducted by Zogby International, a US-based polling firm which interviewed 3,300 people in six Arab countries: Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In all six countries, an overwhelming majority of Arabs expressed an unfavourable view of the United States, ranging from 69% in Lebanon to 98% in Egypt, according to the AAI poll.
In five of the countries there was also a significant decline compared to a similar poll conducted in 2002 in the number of people who regarded the US favourably. In just two years, the percentage of those with favourable views of the US in Morocco has dropped from 38% to 11%; in Saudi Arabia it has dropped from 12% to 4%; in Jordan from 34% to 15%; in Lebanon from 26% to 20%; and in Egypt - by far the most populous Arab country - the figure dropped from 15% to a negligible 2%.
There is no doubt that the driving force behind these negative attitudes is US policy in the region. Washington's stance on the Palestinians, Iraq and terrorism, and its attitude towards Arabs in general were all regarded very unfavourably in all six countries. The country-by-country figures for opposition to US policies range from 75% to 98% but are mostly in the upper eighties and nineties.
In contrast to that, Arabs had mostly favourable views of US technology, democracy, people, films, products and education.
This might offer a little comfort to Washington, except that Arabs are significantly less enthusiastic about these aspects than they used to be. Dislike of US policies now seems to be harming Arabs' perception of the country as a whole.
"In the countries we surveyed in both 2002 and 2004, in almost every instance, we found that Arab attitudes to American values, products and policies declined in the past two years," the AAI report said.
The pollsters wondered if there might be differences in Arab views according to age, gender or religion. After looking at the responses from interviewees over or under the age of 30, they concluded: "In almost no instance does age appear to have a significant impact on attitudes toward American policy and overall attitudes toward the US. All are equally low."
Neither does gender play a significant role. In Jordan, women were slightly more favourable towards the US but in Lebanon the position was reversed.
When the pollsters compared the views of Lebanese Muslims and Lebanese Christians they found only minor differences. Christian views of the US as a whole and of the war on terror were slightly more favourable than those of Muslims, but still overwhelmingly negative.
In the other survey, for Maryland university, Arabs were asked about Iraq.
Questioned in May, before the US handover of power, most expected the change to be "only cosmetic". Substantial numbers thought it would lead to more chaos, while a mere handful, ranging from 2% in Saudi Arabia to 16% in Lebanon, said it would bring positive change.
The vast majority also thought the war in Iraq would bring more terrorism directed against the US, and only a tiny minority, ranging from 2% in Morocco and Saudi Arabia to 7% in Lebanon, thought it would bring more democracy.
Some intriguing replies came when the Maryland survey asked Arabs which "world leader" outside their own country they most admired.
The names that cropped up most often were the late Egyptian president, Gamal Abdel Nasser - who has been dead for 34 years - and the current French president, Jacques Chirac. Nasser was easily the most popular leader in Saudi Arabia (though respondents in the kingdom were not allowed to nominate Osama bin Laden because of his Saudi origin). Chirac came top in Morocco and Lebanon.
Saddam Hussein topped the list in Jordan with 21% support, but fared badly elsewhere. Bin Laden came a close second to Nasser in the UAE but found little support in the other countries.
An interesting dark horse in the popularity contest was Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the militant Lebanese Shia organisation, Hizbullah, who came second in Saudi Arabia and matched Chirac's 9% in Jordan.
It is certainly an eclectic bunch of characters, but if we're looking for a common thread it's probably that they are all, in their different ways, viewed by Arabs as symbols of defiance.
If Washington is not extremely alarmed by the polls' findings, it ought to be. Some argue that it's all a matter of presentation, and if only the US could get its message across clearly, everything would be fine. The Bush administration is already trying that with its Arabic-language radio and TV stations. The cost runs to hundreds of millions of dollars and it's probably going down the drain.
Others, such as Donald Rumsfeld, blame the Arab media and accuse al-Jazeera - by far the most-watched news channel in the Middle East - of broadcasting lies. But on the basis of last week's surveys, he's got it back to front. Al-Jazeera is just a pale reflection of what its viewers are thinking and feeling.
Aware that most Arabs have no first-hand knowledge of the US and get their information about it from the Arab media, the pollsters in the AAI survey decided to check whether this made any difference. Looking more closely at Arab respondents who had visited the US, who knew Americans personally or watched US TV programmes, they found that this group had "somewhat more favourable" views of US values, people and products, but - crucially - their views of US policies were still negative.
The simple fact is that the US is losing the battle for Arab hearts and minds. No matter how many jolly tunes it plays for the Arab world on Radio Sawa, or how much it spends polishing its image through al-Hurra TV, it is not going to win people over. Only a radical change of policies will do that.
The Guradian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,1269523,00.html)
Opinion polls in the Arab world are a comparatively rare event, but last week there were two and their message was very clear: US foreign policy is a disaster.
One poll was commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI) and the other by the University of Maryland. Both were conducted by Zogby International, a US-based polling firm which interviewed 3,300 people in six Arab countries: Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In all six countries, an overwhelming majority of Arabs expressed an unfavourable view of the United States, ranging from 69% in Lebanon to 98% in Egypt, according to the AAI poll.
In five of the countries there was also a significant decline compared to a similar poll conducted in 2002 in the number of people who regarded the US favourably. In just two years, the percentage of those with favourable views of the US in Morocco has dropped from 38% to 11%; in Saudi Arabia it has dropped from 12% to 4%; in Jordan from 34% to 15%; in Lebanon from 26% to 20%; and in Egypt - by far the most populous Arab country - the figure dropped from 15% to a negligible 2%.
There is no doubt that the driving force behind these negative attitudes is US policy in the region. Washington's stance on the Palestinians, Iraq and terrorism, and its attitude towards Arabs in general were all regarded very unfavourably in all six countries. The country-by-country figures for opposition to US policies range from 75% to 98% but are mostly in the upper eighties and nineties.
In contrast to that, Arabs had mostly favourable views of US technology, democracy, people, films, products and education.
This might offer a little comfort to Washington, except that Arabs are significantly less enthusiastic about these aspects than they used to be. Dislike of US policies now seems to be harming Arabs' perception of the country as a whole.
"In the countries we surveyed in both 2002 and 2004, in almost every instance, we found that Arab attitudes to American values, products and policies declined in the past two years," the AAI report said.
The pollsters wondered if there might be differences in Arab views according to age, gender or religion. After looking at the responses from interviewees over or under the age of 30, they concluded: "In almost no instance does age appear to have a significant impact on attitudes toward American policy and overall attitudes toward the US. All are equally low."
Neither does gender play a significant role. In Jordan, women were slightly more favourable towards the US but in Lebanon the position was reversed.
When the pollsters compared the views of Lebanese Muslims and Lebanese Christians they found only minor differences. Christian views of the US as a whole and of the war on terror were slightly more favourable than those of Muslims, but still overwhelmingly negative.
In the other survey, for Maryland university, Arabs were asked about Iraq.
Questioned in May, before the US handover of power, most expected the change to be "only cosmetic". Substantial numbers thought it would lead to more chaos, while a mere handful, ranging from 2% in Saudi Arabia to 16% in Lebanon, said it would bring positive change.
The vast majority also thought the war in Iraq would bring more terrorism directed against the US, and only a tiny minority, ranging from 2% in Morocco and Saudi Arabia to 7% in Lebanon, thought it would bring more democracy.
Some intriguing replies came when the Maryland survey asked Arabs which "world leader" outside their own country they most admired.
The names that cropped up most often were the late Egyptian president, Gamal Abdel Nasser - who has been dead for 34 years - and the current French president, Jacques Chirac. Nasser was easily the most popular leader in Saudi Arabia (though respondents in the kingdom were not allowed to nominate Osama bin Laden because of his Saudi origin). Chirac came top in Morocco and Lebanon.
Saddam Hussein topped the list in Jordan with 21% support, but fared badly elsewhere. Bin Laden came a close second to Nasser in the UAE but found little support in the other countries.
An interesting dark horse in the popularity contest was Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the militant Lebanese Shia organisation, Hizbullah, who came second in Saudi Arabia and matched Chirac's 9% in Jordan.
It is certainly an eclectic bunch of characters, but if we're looking for a common thread it's probably that they are all, in their different ways, viewed by Arabs as symbols of defiance.
If Washington is not extremely alarmed by the polls' findings, it ought to be. Some argue that it's all a matter of presentation, and if only the US could get its message across clearly, everything would be fine. The Bush administration is already trying that with its Arabic-language radio and TV stations. The cost runs to hundreds of millions of dollars and it's probably going down the drain.
Others, such as Donald Rumsfeld, blame the Arab media and accuse al-Jazeera - by far the most-watched news channel in the Middle East - of broadcasting lies. But on the basis of last week's surveys, he's got it back to front. Al-Jazeera is just a pale reflection of what its viewers are thinking and feeling.
Aware that most Arabs have no first-hand knowledge of the US and get their information about it from the Arab media, the pollsters in the AAI survey decided to check whether this made any difference. Looking more closely at Arab respondents who had visited the US, who knew Americans personally or watched US TV programmes, they found that this group had "somewhat more favourable" views of US values, people and products, but - crucially - their views of US policies were still negative.
The simple fact is that the US is losing the battle for Arab hearts and minds. No matter how many jolly tunes it plays for the Arab world on Radio Sawa, or how much it spends polishing its image through al-Hurra TV, it is not going to win people over. Only a radical change of policies will do that.
The Guradian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,1269523,00.html)