James
18th July 2004, 10:31
Blair: no deal with Brown on No 10
· Fresh blow to Chancellor's hopes
· Best yet to come, PM tells friends
Andrew Rawnsley and Gaby Hinsliff
Sunday July 18, 2004
The Observer
Tony Blair has told friends that he has made no deals with Gordon Brown about the succession to Number 10.
After incessant speculation that they have come to an agreement on a handover, Blair has stressed to associates that deals cannot be done over the position of Prime Minister.
Despite the loss of one safe Labour seat and a narrow victory in another at last week's two byelections, as well as the continuing fall-out from the Butler inquiry, Blair has been indicating to his closest allies that he feels more confident about his purpose at Number 10 than at any time in his premiership.
He believes that he has never been more in command of the job and more confident about what he wants to do with it.
One close associate of the Prime Minister says 'he's talking about his third term being a meaningful third term', suggesting that, if re-elected, he would carry on as PM for a considerable period, a prospect that will inevitably frustrate the Chancellor.
Cabinet allies of the Prime Minister do not deny that he went through what one calls 'a very difficult period' earlier in the year, when the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal came to light. One friend of the Prime Minister describes it as 'a dark patch'.
But Blair has since bounced back strongly and has been heard to ridicule suggestions that he had ever contemplated resigning. One cabinet minister told The Observer: 'You know the old saying: what doesn't kill you, strengthens you. He seems to be stronger now.'
Speculation about a succession deal between the Prime Minister and Chancellor has refused to die down since a 'peace-making' dinner last November hosted by John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, at his government flat in Admiralty Arch, prompting a widespread assumption that a bargain had been struck on the succession issue. With Blair's 10-year anniversary as leader of the Labour Party falling on Wednesday, pressure for him to stand aside had become intense among some Brown supporters.
Although the scale of the threat to Blair's leadership is only now emerging, friends said he had now survived the worst.
'We are in a pre-election period and the party can't accept the continuing uncertainty about leadership and direction,' said one senior MP close to Blair. 'It had to be clear one way or another. Now it is.'
Crucially, Butler and the loss of the Leicester South seat had not led to a clamour for Blair's head, the MP said. 'If there was a moment when Tony was vulnerable, it is not now. The past two to three weeks have been crucial.'
Blair will underline his determination to go on, in a speech to the party's National Policy Forum this weekend, defending his controversial policies on extending choice in health and education against attack from unions and party activists with what one ally said would be a 'pretty tough message'.
'Having gone out on a limb and had to fight the good fight internally to get choice in the public services and the reform agenda through, I don't think he's simply going to roll over and ask them to tickle his tummy,' said one close ally.
There are also signs of a truce between the Blair and Brown camps after two weeks of bitter infighting over the spending review and future direction of policy outlined in a blizzard of five-year policy plans. One Downing Street source said the inner circle now accepted that many of the most outspoken attacks by MPs on the Prime Minister were not being orchestrated by Brown.
'There are people who are associated with Gordon who are not under Gordon's line management, who are frustrated and think that reports of a so-called deal stand up and that they are entitled to fly kamikaze missions into enemy territory,' he said.
'I don't get the impression - with one or two exceptions - that these are people who are really close to Gordon, or close to Tony.'
Blair will spend this weekend at Chequers pondering the next problem in his in-tray: when to hold the expected Cabinet reshuffle, and whether to grant his old friend Peter Mandelson the job he wants as a European commissioner. Blair is being urged to delay the reshuffle until September, when it might have more impact - it could even be staged during the Tory party conference, to steal headlines from Michael Howard - but the continuing rumours about his leadership may encourage him to hold it on Thursday, as a statement that he is back in control.
'If he doesn't do it, people will say, "Aha, he does still have some doubt about whether to stay",' said one ally.
No sweeping changes are expected, but a promotion for higher education minister Alan Johnson is likely: one possibility is that he may replace the Brownite Andrew Smith at the Department of Work and Pensions. Other Blairite junior ministers, such as Hazel Blears and John Hutton, can at least expect a promise that they will make the cabinet after the next election.
Mandelson's job risks reviving unwelcome memories of his two previous - involuntary - departures from cabinet. But the fact that Labour held Birmingham South, where the sitting MP was also departing for a job in Brussels, may have helped tip the scales in Mandelson's favour.
However, one aide said it was now probably 'less likely rather than more' that Mandelson would land the job. Choosing someone like former Defence Secretary and Nato chief Lord Robertson would at least prevent another tricky byelection.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/stor...1263865,00.html (http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1263865,00.html)
· Fresh blow to Chancellor's hopes
· Best yet to come, PM tells friends
Andrew Rawnsley and Gaby Hinsliff
Sunday July 18, 2004
The Observer
Tony Blair has told friends that he has made no deals with Gordon Brown about the succession to Number 10.
After incessant speculation that they have come to an agreement on a handover, Blair has stressed to associates that deals cannot be done over the position of Prime Minister.
Despite the loss of one safe Labour seat and a narrow victory in another at last week's two byelections, as well as the continuing fall-out from the Butler inquiry, Blair has been indicating to his closest allies that he feels more confident about his purpose at Number 10 than at any time in his premiership.
He believes that he has never been more in command of the job and more confident about what he wants to do with it.
One close associate of the Prime Minister says 'he's talking about his third term being a meaningful third term', suggesting that, if re-elected, he would carry on as PM for a considerable period, a prospect that will inevitably frustrate the Chancellor.
Cabinet allies of the Prime Minister do not deny that he went through what one calls 'a very difficult period' earlier in the year, when the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal came to light. One friend of the Prime Minister describes it as 'a dark patch'.
But Blair has since bounced back strongly and has been heard to ridicule suggestions that he had ever contemplated resigning. One cabinet minister told The Observer: 'You know the old saying: what doesn't kill you, strengthens you. He seems to be stronger now.'
Speculation about a succession deal between the Prime Minister and Chancellor has refused to die down since a 'peace-making' dinner last November hosted by John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, at his government flat in Admiralty Arch, prompting a widespread assumption that a bargain had been struck on the succession issue. With Blair's 10-year anniversary as leader of the Labour Party falling on Wednesday, pressure for him to stand aside had become intense among some Brown supporters.
Although the scale of the threat to Blair's leadership is only now emerging, friends said he had now survived the worst.
'We are in a pre-election period and the party can't accept the continuing uncertainty about leadership and direction,' said one senior MP close to Blair. 'It had to be clear one way or another. Now it is.'
Crucially, Butler and the loss of the Leicester South seat had not led to a clamour for Blair's head, the MP said. 'If there was a moment when Tony was vulnerable, it is not now. The past two to three weeks have been crucial.'
Blair will underline his determination to go on, in a speech to the party's National Policy Forum this weekend, defending his controversial policies on extending choice in health and education against attack from unions and party activists with what one ally said would be a 'pretty tough message'.
'Having gone out on a limb and had to fight the good fight internally to get choice in the public services and the reform agenda through, I don't think he's simply going to roll over and ask them to tickle his tummy,' said one close ally.
There are also signs of a truce between the Blair and Brown camps after two weeks of bitter infighting over the spending review and future direction of policy outlined in a blizzard of five-year policy plans. One Downing Street source said the inner circle now accepted that many of the most outspoken attacks by MPs on the Prime Minister were not being orchestrated by Brown.
'There are people who are associated with Gordon who are not under Gordon's line management, who are frustrated and think that reports of a so-called deal stand up and that they are entitled to fly kamikaze missions into enemy territory,' he said.
'I don't get the impression - with one or two exceptions - that these are people who are really close to Gordon, or close to Tony.'
Blair will spend this weekend at Chequers pondering the next problem in his in-tray: when to hold the expected Cabinet reshuffle, and whether to grant his old friend Peter Mandelson the job he wants as a European commissioner. Blair is being urged to delay the reshuffle until September, when it might have more impact - it could even be staged during the Tory party conference, to steal headlines from Michael Howard - but the continuing rumours about his leadership may encourage him to hold it on Thursday, as a statement that he is back in control.
'If he doesn't do it, people will say, "Aha, he does still have some doubt about whether to stay",' said one ally.
No sweeping changes are expected, but a promotion for higher education minister Alan Johnson is likely: one possibility is that he may replace the Brownite Andrew Smith at the Department of Work and Pensions. Other Blairite junior ministers, such as Hazel Blears and John Hutton, can at least expect a promise that they will make the cabinet after the next election.
Mandelson's job risks reviving unwelcome memories of his two previous - involuntary - departures from cabinet. But the fact that Labour held Birmingham South, where the sitting MP was also departing for a job in Brussels, may have helped tip the scales in Mandelson's favour.
However, one aide said it was now probably 'less likely rather than more' that Mandelson would land the job. Choosing someone like former Defence Secretary and Nato chief Lord Robertson would at least prevent another tricky byelection.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/stor...1263865,00.html (http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,1263865,00.html)