Five years after the fall of Mubarak

[Devrim]

It's now five years spice the fall of Mubarak, and the start of the 'Arab Spring'.

Today, the region is dominated by the events in Syria, and it's hard to look on the end result as anything other than a disaster. I've also been working with some Libyans recently, and from what they say, it seems like the situation there is terrible too.

I wrote three pieces in English, which are connected to the issue. I've just read back over them. I found it quite interesting. I thought others might too.

https://libcom.org/library/understanding-period-class-analysis-events-arab-world

https://libcom.org/library/street-protests-class-power

https://libcom.org/blog/bloodbath-syria-class-war-or-ethnic-war-03112014

Devrim

[Бай Ганьо]

Syria, a country where the majority of the population are Sunni Arab Muslims, is ruled by members of a minority Shia offshoot, who have a tendency to rely upon the country’s other minorities for support.
I hope you do realize that what you state here is exactly what French imperialist propaganda says. Assad has always had the support of the major part of the Sunni bourgeoisie and people, implying otherwise is just false. The Syrian infitahs, for instance, were organized by Assad’s government and massively financed by Sunni entrepreneurs. The peasants who welcomed these reforms, which enhanced the self-suffiency of the country, were foremost Sunnis, especially those from the Deraa region. Many Syrian army commanders are/were Sunni. Almost all key positions in the governments go/went to Sunnis: Adel Safar, Nadji Al Otri, Riyad Farid Hijab, Soufiane Allaw, Mohammed El Jleilati, Fayçal Midad, … The Safar government, for example, was composed of 19 Sunni members, 6 Alawites, 2 Shias, 1 Ismailian, and 1 Druze. The current prime minister of Syria al-Halqi is a Sunni. Mamlouk, the boss of the "Syrian CIA", is a Sunni.

[Devrim]

Does the representation that you point to above of just over a third of the cabinet posts going to minority groups, which is disproportionate to their numbers in the population imply leaning on minorities for support. That's not to say that Sunni Muslims were excluded from power, but it seems obvious from on your figures that they lean upon minority groups.

Devrim

[Бай Ганьо]

69% of Syrians are Sunni, 65% of the cabinet posts went to Sunnis. The disproportion is appalling.

[Devrim]

69% of Syrians are Sunni, 65% of the cabinet posts went to Sunnis. The disproportion is appalling.

I think that's a low figure for Arab Sunni Muslims.

Anyway Alevis make up 11% of the population, yet they had 21% of the seats in the council of ministers. That's virtually doubled there numbers amongst the general polulance. I'd say that is disproportionate.

That's not really the point though. It's not just the council of my ministers. If you look at the armies pre-war officer corps, it was about 80% Alawites. I call that relying on minorities.

Devrim

[Бай Ганьо]

87-90% of Syrians are Muslim, 75-78 % of them are Sunni. So do the math and face the result.

I concede that Alevis were over-represented by ca. 9% in that government. I don't know if this has been a trend in all governments though, and if you do have data about that, feel free to share it.

On the other hand, father and son Assad have never refrained from removing disturbing Alevis from important positions: they kicked Rifaat al-Assad and his collaborators out of the party, and all disloyal people (incl. Alevis) were purged from the army.

How many Syrian generals were/are Alawites? And how many unranked soldiers were/are?

[Devrim]

87-90% of Syrians are Muslim, 75-78 % of them are Sunni. So do the math and face the result.

I'm not quite sure where you figures are coming from, but more importantly I don't think you are even looking for the right figure. The important figure is Arab Sunni Muslims, not Sunni Muslims per-say, as that would include Kurds, and the breakdown of posts should be on an ethno-religious basis not a purely religious one.


I concede that Alevis were over-represented by ca. 9% in that government. I don't know if this has been a trend in all governments though, and if you do have data about that, feel free to share it.

This 9% is almost double their representation in the populace. More importnat though would be to look at who holds which posts. The more iportant posts tend to be held by Alawities. Both of these facts have been historically true under both al-Assads. This council of ministers is not an aberration.


On the other hand, father and son Assad have never refrained from removing disturbing Alevis from important positions: they kicked Rifaat al-Assad and his collaborators out of the party, and all disloyal people (incl. Alevis) were purged from the army.

The fate of individuals of an sect or ethnic group isn't really the question. It's the strategy of the state as a whole that counts.


How many Syrian generals were/are Alawites?

I think 10% of the population making up 80% of the officer corps makes it quite clear. The further you go up the more Alevi it gets, especially as above in the crucial positions:


Roughly four-fifth of the officer corps as well as the commanders of the numerous intelligence agencies are Alawites. Although the Alawite sect does not staff the entire officer corps, Alawites hold virtually all sensitive and important positions in the armed forces. For instance, while most Syrian air force pilots were Sunni, the air defense force that controlled logistics and communication was mainly Alawite, preventing the pilots from making a play for power. There are nearly a dozen paramilitary forces in the country, all of them are led by Assad-family confidants and consist of highly-motivated fighters loyal to the regime. Bashar's brother, Maher, a brigadier general, is the commander of the Republican Guard as well as the army's elite Fourth Armored Division; these two special units along with Syria's secret police form the core of the country's security forces. His brother-in-law, Asaf Shawkat, was the head of Military Intelligence and later a deputy minister of defense. (He died, along with the defense minister and several top defense officials, in a bomb attack in July 2012.) The Syrian military at the beginning of the civil war numbered approximately 300,000: perhaps two-thirds of these were draftees, a large proportion of whom was drawn from the majority Sunni community. With the onset of the civil war, Sunni conscripts-repelled by the level of violence their Alawite officers were willing to inflict on protesters-started to defect and were joined by some Sunni civilians. In fact, the vast majority of the Free Syrian Army is made up of these soldiers and their officers, few of whom are Alawites. Many divisions that consist mainly of drafted Sunni soldiers have not been deployed to quell the uprising; instead, the regime has increasingly turned to the army's Third and Fourth divisions, special forces, and irregulars, often called shabiha, which are heavily Alawi or belong to other minorities sympathetic to the regime.



And how many unranked soldiers were/are?

It's mainly a conscript army, and as such the soldiery reflects the ethno-religious make up of society.


I hope you do realize that what you state here is exactly what French imperialist propaganda says.

It also happens to be true. In fact it is such a well known fact I'm surprised anyone thinks it controversial.

Devrim

[Os Cangaceiros]

the end result of what?

Similarly, could one not say that the end result of the French Revolution was Napoleon, the Russian Revolution was Stalin, and the German Revolution was Hitler?

[Rafiq]

That's not really the point though. It's not just the council of my ministers. If you look at the armies pre-war officer corps, it was about 80% Alawites. I call that relying on minorities.

Was this not because the Syrian army, since the days of the Alawite state, had been predominantly dominated by Alawites? I was told that in the colonial Syrian army, Alawites were disproportionately accepted as recruits. And the role of the army as it pertains to post-colonial Arab nationalist states in general is quite known.

[Antiochus]

Yes but that was heavily accelerated following the rise of the Assad family. So, the French (as most colonial powers did and still do) utilized key minorities who were more likely to be subservient to staff their armies and so forth. The British did it with Sikhs in India; The Romans with the Batavians and so on.

Nevertheless, the Assads did basically make the Syrian army an "Alawite" force.