Kondatriev Cycles

[ComradeAllende]

In Mandel's Late Capitalism, there is a chapter (I think Ch.4) dedicated to addressing Kondatriev's conception of "long-wave cycles" in capitalism, specifically driven by technological innovation and the gradual replacement of depreciated machinery over the course of five business cycles (~50 years).

Given that the book was written in the early 1970s, there are some flaws with this theory (Mandel was wrong to argue that atomic power would drive the "next" long cycle); nevertheless, I did notice (living in the "Internet age") that the rise of digital technology roughly coincides (at least from an industrial perspective) with the "next" wave (c.1970-c.2020). Was the Internet Age (and all its electronic accouterments) the latest of Kondatriev long wave cycles?

[ckaihatsu]

According to this, we're supposed to already have 'post-information', whatever *that* is.... (grin)





5. (1985–2015) The wave of the Information and telecommunications revolution
6. (2015–2035?) The hypothetical wave of the post-informational technological revolution




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave#Other_researchers


But, to be fair, I tend to agree with the timeline that points to a period of 'psychosocial' and 'health' -- presumably that this is an estimation based on the leveraged benefits of the preceding 'IT', or the Internet.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e4/Kondratiev-waves_IT_and_Health_with_phase_shift_acc_to_Goldsc hmidt-AJW_2004.jpg/450px-Kondratiev-waves_IT_and_Health_with_phase_shift_acc_to_Goldsc hmidt-AJW_2004.jpg

[Aslan]

In Mandel's Late Capitalism, there is a chapter (I think Ch.4) dedicated to addressing Kondatriev's conception of "long-wave cycles" in capitalism, specifically driven by technological innovation and the gradual replacement of depreciated machinery over the course of five business cycles (~50 years).

Given that the book was written in the early 1970s, there are some flaws with this theory (Mandel was wrong to argue that atomic power would drive the "next" long cycle); nevertheless, I did notice (living in the "Internet age") that the rise of digital technology roughly coincides (at least from an industrial perspective) with the "next" wave (c.1970-c.2020). Was the Internet Age (and all its electronic accouterments) the latest of Kondatriev long wave cycles?

Here's my thoughts..

I think people should recognize the fact that in capitalist ''golden ages'' technological advances accelerate as new technology is acquired. Early capitalism was higher than feudalism, which was higher than a slave economy, which was in turn higher than early neolithic economy, which was higher than tribalism. With the build of resources so comes the acceleration of revolutions (and more revolutions than once!) which is my hypothesis on why there is such an acceleration wave times.

As capitalism is directly tied to our governments. As it grows and advances, so do the governments of our world. I have a hard time connecting this to Marxism though, anyone care to comment or expand on my point?

But we must also acknowledge that capitalism is always collapsing on itself, a theory that was pioneered by Adam Smith and all socialists/communists acknowledge. The so-called ''invisible hand'' of the market, and Marx's greatest argument against capitalism. What I'd like to see is a map comparing the waves of revolutions with the waves of economic growth and collapse. I'd also like to see an estimation of the next crisis in our timeline.

Innovation also has factors like cooperation and competition, I personally think there needs to be a balance of both. Sort of like the balance in stress in psychology. But that subject is unrelated to the current topic, so I'll hold it for now.

[ckaihatsu]

Here's my thoughts..

I think people should recognize the fact that in capitalist ''golden ages'' technological advances accelerate as new technology is acquired. Early capitalism was higher than feudalism, which was higher than a slave economy, which was in turn higher than early neolithic economy, which was higher than tribalism. With the build of resources so comes the acceleration of revolutions (and more revolutions than once!) which is my hypothesis on why there is such an acceleration wave times.




As capitalism is directly tied to our governments. As it grows and advances, so do the governments of our world. I have a hard time connecting this to Marxism though, anyone care to comment or expand on my point?


Just offhand I'd say that governments are expected to 'take up the slack' for just about anything socially / politically important, that the private sector is incapable / uninterested in doing itself. (This goes across the political spectrum, from warfare to social services to managing labor relations.)

So as society and the economy get more complexified, the scope and role of (capitalist) government necessarily grows to cover the additional terrain.





But we must also acknowledge that capitalism is always collapsing on itself, a theory that was pioneered by Adam Smith and all socialists/communists acknowledge. The so-called ''invisible hand'' of the market, and Marx's greatest argument against capitalism. What I'd like to see is a map comparing the waves of revolutions with the waves of economic growth and collapse. I'd also like to see an estimation of the next crisis in our timeline.


Yeah.... (looking at watch) I'd say that's about *right now*. (Not to mention this past late summer.)





Innovation also has factors like cooperation and competition, I personally think there needs to be a balance of both. Sort of like the balance in stress in psychology. But that subject is unrelated to the current topic, so I'll hold it for now.


Since you raised the topic I'll gratuitously leave this little diagram right here....


Humanities - Technology Chart 3.0



http://s6.postimg.org/3vpb4bhip/120830_Humanities_Technology_Chart_3_0.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/6psghrjot/full/)


(You may want to elaborate on the balance and extents of 'cooperation / competition', since it's a paradigmatic category.)

[ComradeAllende]

But, to be fair, I tend to agree with the timeline that points to a period of 'psychosocial' and 'health' -- presumably that this is an estimation based on the leveraged benefits of the preceding 'IT', or the Internet.

I don't quite understand the "psychosocial" and "health" aspects of the "IT cycle". Are those the advances in medical research and social networking (Facebook, MySpace, etc.) that are built off of the commercialization of the Internet and personal computers?

[ckaihatsu]

I don't quite understand the "psychosocial" and "health" aspects of the "IT cycle". Are those the advances in medical research and social networking (Facebook, MySpace, etc.) that are built off of the commercialization of the Internet and personal computers?


There's no 'of the' -- from my reading of the chart the 'IT' and 'psychosocial and health' periods are at different points on the timeline, albeit with some overlap.

You're positing a particular interpretation of the chart, as did I, from my own interpretation -- although I tend to be more on the d.i.y. side of things when it comes to matters of health, as at this thread:


Sole (so-lay) -- a health plan for those who can afford unrefined sea salt

tinyurl.com/sole-sea-salt

[ckaihatsu]

[W]hat I'd like to see is a map comparing the waves of revolutions with the waves of economic growth and collapse. I'd also like to see an estimation of the next crisis in our timeline.


Here's from a little bit of web searching:


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9d/1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distri bution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middl e_East.png/220px-1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distri bution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middl e_East.png (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_d istribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_ Middle_East.png#/media/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_d istribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_ Middle_East.png)




Major economies from 1 AD to 2003 AD according to Angus Maddison's estimates.[12]




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower#Superpowers_of_the_past


---





The Age of Corporations is coming to an end. The traditional corporation won’t vanish, but it will cease to be the center of gravity of economic life in another generation or two. They will live on as religious institutions do today, as weakened ghosts of more vital institutions from centuries ago.

It is not yet time for the obituary (and that time may never come), but the sun is certainly setting on the Golden Age of corporations. It is time to review the memoirs of the corporation as an idea, and contemplate a post-corporate future framed by its gradual withdrawal from the center stage of the world’s economic affairs.

http://206hwf3fj4w52u3br03fi242.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/lifeofcorp.png




http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2011/06/08/a-brief-history-of-the-corporation-1600-to-2100/


---


And:


http://image1.slideserve.com/1669777/timeline-of-communism-in-the-20-th-century-n.jpg


---





"health" aspects


I'll note the recent new prominence of common knowledge about the problems with gluten and grains:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gluten-free_diet





Conclusion

When it comes to things that we, humans, are not adapted to eat and digest, wheat and its gluten protein are probably at the top of the list. It’s very sad that wheat is so omnipresent in our society though and many health conditions would probably not even exist if it were not for our high consumption of wheat. Positive changes are often noticed immediately after removing wheat and other gluten containing grains from the diet.

Even though most people can indulge in less healthy choices from time to time without negative consequences, wheat and other gluten containing grains should, in my opinion and the opinion of many others in Paleo blogosphere, be completely avoided, especially for those who suffer any kind of autoimmune disease or inflammatory condition.




http://paleoleap.com/11-ways-gluten-and-wheat-can-damage-your-health/

[Rafiq]

According to this, we're supposed to already have 'post-information', whatever *that* is.... (grin)

Of course what is being referred to is biogenetic technology.

[ckaihatsu]

Of course what is being referred to is biogenetic technology.


"Of course", huh -- ?

What brings you to that conclusion -- ?

(From what I've seen, casually, there's a lot of initial hype, portraying biogenetic garage-type hobbyists to be like the now-illustrious computer hobbyists of "old" -- doing minute things in petri dishes in their spare time.)