Rise in support for Left Parties in Ireland

[Jolly Red Giant]

Last week the Anti-Austerity Alliance and the People Before Profit Alliance announced the establishment of a parliamentary grouping for the upcoming election in Ireland - the election has to be held by next April at the latest.

The Anti-Austerity Alliance currently has three members of parliament - all members of the Socialist Party (CWI) - having won two parliamentary by-elections in working class constituencies over the past 18 months. The PBPA currently has one member of parliament - a member of the SWP.

The parliamentary group has been established in an attempt to increase the left parties parliamentary representation to at least 7 members of parliament which would give the left full speaking rights in the Irish parliament (rather than having to share time with right-wing elements in the parliament's Technical Group).

In an opinion poll published this evening the AAA/PBP has seen a dramatic rise in support from 3% to 7%. This puts the AAA/PBP on the same level as the Labour Party who are currently in government. This poll is a reflection of the mood that has developed on the ground in constituencies where the AAA have a base on the ground (I cannot comment on the PBP I do not know how well they are working on the ground). AAA activists have been getting a very positive response as they seek to build support for a boycott of water charges and support for AAA candidates in the upcoming election.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Just and update on this opinion poll -

The polling companies in Ireland filter their results, carry out weighting based on the results of the last general election (which significantly benefit the government parties) and then exclude the undecided voters and weight them to the parties on the basis of who is most likely to vote. All of these measures distort the poll results because the fail to take account of the political earthquake that has taken place in Ireland since 2008.

The officially published poll indicated party support as follows - this is based on those who indicated they 'will definitely vote'.

Fine Gael 24%
Sinn Fein 19%
Fianna Fail 19%
Labour Party 8%
AAA/PBP 7%
Other parties and independents 22%

A far more accurate representation of support for the political parties is based on the 'core' votes, before filtering, weighting and exclusion of undecided voters. The core votes in this poll are indicated as follows -

Fine Gael 18%
Sinn Fein 16%
Fianna Fail 15%
Labour Party 5%
AAA/PBP 6%
Other parties and independents 14% (no other party registered above 2%)

The results for Dublin (which is home to approximately 30% of the entire country) show the growth in support for Left parties.

Fine Gael 25%
Sinn Fein 17%
Fianna Fail 13%
AAA / PBP 12%
Labour Party 6%
Social Democrats 3%
Green Party 3%
Renua 1%
Independents 15%

These numbers are based on the support after filters, weighting and exclusion of undecided voters. Much of the support for 'independents' is for left-wing independent candidates - there are currently two left wing independents in Dublin and two outside of Dublin - but there is a prospect of several others winning parliamentary seats after the next election.

Current projections for seats for left candidates have a wide variation. However, based on current poll numbers (out of 158 seats) - the AAA/PBP could win between 8-12 with a further 6-8 left independents being elected.

[Comrade Jacob]

Sinn Fein are all right. I prefer IRSP. And the communist party.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Another opinion poll in Ireland

the left-wing Parliamentary grouping of Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit has risen 2 points to 9% in a poll due to be published in the Sunday Times.

In Dublin the AAA/PBP is polling 17%

Fine Gael 23%
Sinn Fein 20%
AAA/PBP 17%
Fianna Fail 14%
Labour 9%
Independent Alliance 2%
Social Democrats 2%
Renua 2%
Left Independent candidates 10%

The right-wing pro-austerity parties are polling less than 50% in Dublin for the first time ever in the history of the state and are on less than 55% on a national basis. The three main parties were polling over 85% only 10 years ago.

The rise in the polls for the AAA/PBP has come after two weeks of sustained attacks by the state (MPs, local councillors and members of local communities are in court charged with a variety of offences related to anti-water charges protests including charges of 'false imprisonment' for blockading the state merc of the LP leader and deputy prim minister for two hours) as well as a sustained political attack on the Anti-Austerity Alliance by Sinn Fein and a prominent group of trade union bureaucrats because the AAA refused to join a transfer pact with Sinn Fein (SF refuse to rule out a coalition deal with pro-austerity parties).